So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

(08-20-2022 02:35 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

Moving Pac schools to the ACC makes zero sense. They don't bump the value of the ACC, even if the ACC wasn't locked into their current contract. So the Pac schools get no extra money and have to travel across the continent. That is what is called a lose-lose deal.

(08-20-2022 02:35 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

Maybe ESPN is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington and the B1G.

And maybe ESPN also is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah and the Big XII.

Maybe waiting is a prudent strategy in this instance?

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

If that's the plan, I think the ACC has more synergy with the B12 than the PAC.

But hey, if you're doing that, you could do that with all three merged.

10+12+14=36 (+ND)

Move Kansas, OK state, and 6 ACC schools (or just 8 ACC schools) to SEC for 24.

36-8=28 (+ND)

B10 will likely take a few schools, and the merged conference can backfill with the usual suspects - Memphis, SMU, USF, BSU, SDSU, etc.

(08-20-2022 04:10 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 02:35 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

Maybe ESPN is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington and the B1G.

And maybe ESPN also is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah and the Big XII.

Maybe waiting is a prudent strategy in this instance?

What happens with B1G is almost entirely up to ESPN. ESPN is the potential bidder for the late night slots that would fund further B1G expansion. And nothing happens with the BigXII except as a domino off further B1G raiding.

ESPN is on the clock right now. They’re the ones driving what happens next.

The only thing off in the OP is that the SEC could pay enough to land a few PAC schools alone and mitigate travel issues. The ACC doesn’t have that kind of money. The ACC would have to take more. Fortunately, there’s not that much market redundancy in the PAC, and new markets are what would increase ACCN revenue and make it a profitable move for the existing ACC schools.

ESPN could pay 300M and move 4 schools to the B1G. That would get them the best content but it would give the B1G even more leverage in future contracts.

ESPN could pay 300M for 10 and kick the can down the road.

ESPN could pay 300M for 8 and hit the ACC revenue price point. Oregon, Washington, and Stanford would need a little sweetener to bite on that ACC GoR though. That sweetener could come in the form of first buying the PACN. The price would have to be right that ESPN could recoup that in ACCN revenue.

Each of those options costs them 300M and fills their time slots. Option one basically guarantees that they earn more on those slots but pay more for the next contract. Option 2 is the safest. Option 3 probably earns the least but gives them control for 12 years.

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

I’m not sure that I understand. Assume that the 4 schools that the SEC most covets are FSU, Clemson, UNC and Duke (SEC simply wants the best football and basketball brands; and these schools desperately need the extra money). Why would the 10 other ACC programs, plus ND, agree to this offer? I don’t understand what these programs gain by leaving the ACC (and losing association with championship-level brands).

(08-20-2022 04:12 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

If that's the plan, I think the ACC has more synergy with the B12 than the PAC.

But hey, if you're doing that, you could do that with all three merged.

10+12+14=36 (+ND)

Move Kansas, OK state, and 6 ACC schools (or just 8 ACC schools) to SEC for 24.

36-8=28 (+ND)

B10 will likely take a few schools, and the merged conference can backfill with the usual suspects - Memphis, SMU, USF, BSU, SDSU, etc.

I think the PAC 10 makes a better partner in ESPN’s machinations for a few reasons:

Academics—the leftovers are going to include a fair number of AAU schools and the ACC has always had an air of academic snobbery. The Pac 10 has 7 AAU schools and an 8th on the cusp (Ariz St). There’s some institutional synergy

10+10 > 10+12 —yes that math equation doesn’t make a lot of sense but it does when you consider you’d be merging to equal sized groups makes for good symmetry

ESPN has no late night content—merge with the Big 12 and ESPN still doesn’t have anything to air on the late night slot save BYU (and the visiting team will be in central or eastern time, which sucks for them. ESPN would still have to buy the PAC 10 along with the ACC-Big 12 merger

Making a deal with the PAC 10 deals the maximum hurt to Fox/Big 10. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford/ND all are off the board. ND fb stays independent with Olympic sports playing in the Atlantic Division of the merger league and their fb in a scheduling agreement. That agreement could be playing each of the 20 merger schools once every 4 yrs or they could build match ups each year in an effort to maximize tv potential.

Most Americans live in coastal states—putting both coasts together in one league would result in the most people falling in the conference footprint

(08-20-2022 04:49 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

I’m not sure that I understand. Assume that the 4 schools that the SEC most covets are FSU, Clemson, UNC and Duke (SEC simply wants the best football and basketball brands; and these schools desperately need the extra money). Why would the 10 other ACC programs, plus ND, agree to this offer? I don’t understand what these programs gain by leaving the ACC (and losing association with championship-level brands).

Money. And for some, less risk.

The 2016 era deal makes a lot of moves as an increase in pay.

There are also a handful of schools that need to trade in the GOR for a better post-ACC position.

I don’t see ESPN orchestrating a east-to-west flow though. That’s bad econometrically. It makes more sense to move PAC schools east.

A possible settlement of FSU, Miami, Clemson, VT to SEC in exchange for ESPN adding 10-14 PAC and Big 12 schools. More likely UNC and another 1-2 are included in SEC promotion.

Perhaps UNC attempts to obstruct, preferring to decay in ACC, but it’s not difficult to leverage a scenario in which case those schools find a solution that forces capitulation by ACC, and the mutual losses avoided.

(08-20-2022 05:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:12 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

If that's the plan, I think the ACC has more synergy with the B12 than the PAC.

But hey, if you're doing that, you could do that with all three merged.

10+12+14=36 (+ND)

Move Kansas, OK state, and 6 ACC schools (or just 8 ACC schools) to SEC for 24.

36-8=28 (+ND)

B10 will likely take a few schools, and the merged conference can backfill with the usual suspects - Memphis, SMU, USF, BSU, SDSU, etc.

I think the PAC 10 makes a better partner in ESPN’s machinations for a few reasons:

Academics—the leftovers are going to include a fair number of AAU schools and the ACC has always had an air of academic snobbery. The Pac 10 has 7 AAU schools and an 8th on the cusp (Ariz St).

10+10 > 10+12 —yes that math equation doesn’t make a lot of sense but it does when you consider you’d be merging to equal sized groups makes for good synergy

ESPN has no late night content—merge with the Big 12 and ESPN still doesn’t have anything to air on the late night slot save BYU (and the visiting team will be in central or eastern time, which sucks for them. ESPN would still have to buy the PAC 10 along with the ACC-Big 12 merger

Making a deal with the PAC 10 deals the maximum hurt to Fox/Big 10. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford/ND all are off the board. ND fb stays independent with Olympic sports playing in the Atlantic Division of the merger league and their fb in a scheduling agreement. That agreement could be playing each of the 20 merger schools once every 4 yrs or they could build match ups each year in an effort to maximize tv potential.

The thing is, these things are not done in a vacuum. The other conferences are free to act, to invite, etc, while this is happening.

And suddenly that really valuable set of PAC schools that ACC thought they were getting turns out to be leavings and leftovers.

And worse, those other PAC schools, now seeing the others poached, might suddenly become less likely to want to go cross-country at that point.

So this just becomes another "PAC gets split by the B10 and B12", with a few possibly going elsewhere.

And in the end ACC doesn't get anything.

I like to talk about the possible, but right now, the likelihood is that right now, the ACC's best hope is either staying together and waiting out the GoR, and maybe allowing FSU, and possibly a couple other schools, to leave to reduce the pressure valve; or just merging most schools to the SEC.

But trying to merge with the PAC, or even the B12, will simply result in a royal mess that is unlikely to help the ACC at all.

When are people going to get over the idea that ESPN can just shuffle schools between the ACC and SEC? It’s a completely ridiculous notion that all the lawyers on the board have unanimously dismissed. Nothing you guys throw out protects ESPN from damages incurred by the schools left in the ACC. It’s a completely preposterous mechanism for realignment.

The schools in the ACC are in the ACC. What they do to improve their situation in the next 13 years doesn’t involve gross violations of their GOR. They can better monetize the ACCN, but that’s about the extent of what they can do to keep up.

(08-20-2022 06:04 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 05:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:12 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s one possibility:

1. ESPN signs a deal for the PAC 10 rights
2. ESPN then proposes the ACC with an offer: 4 schools join the ESPN controlled SEC, everyone else merges with the PAC 10. This new league would have 21 schools, 20 for football (with ND staying Indy). 2-10 team divisions playing round robin. CCG between the two division alternates between an East Coast and West Coast site.

FOX and the Big 10 end up screwed.

If that's the plan, I think the ACC has more synergy with the B12 than the PAC.

But hey, if you're doing that, you could do that with all three merged.

10+12+14=36 (+ND)

Move Kansas, OK state, and 6 ACC schools (or just 8 ACC schools) to SEC for 24.

36-8=28 (+ND)

B10 will likely take a few schools, and the merged conference can backfill with the usual suspects - Memphis, SMU, USF, BSU, SDSU, etc.

I think the PAC 10 makes a better partner in ESPN’s machinations for a few reasons:

Academics—the leftovers are going to include a fair number of AAU schools and the ACC has always had an air of academic snobbery. The Pac 10 has 7 AAU schools and an 8th on the cusp (Ariz St).

10+10 > 10+12 —yes that math equation doesn’t make a lot of sense but it does when you consider you’d be merging to equal sized groups makes for good synergy

ESPN has no late night content—merge with the Big 12 and ESPN still doesn’t have anything to air on the late night slot save BYU (and the visiting team will be in central or eastern time, which sucks for them. ESPN would still have to buy the PAC 10 along with the ACC-Big 12 merger

Making a deal with the PAC 10 deals the maximum hurt to Fox/Big 10. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford/ND all are off the board. ND fb stays independent with Olympic sports playing in the Atlantic Division of the merger league and their fb in a scheduling agreement. That agreement could be playing each of the 20 merger schools once every 4 yrs or they could build match ups each year in an effort to maximize tv potential.

The thing is, these things are not done in a vacuum. The other conferences are free to act, to invite, etc, while this is happening.

This is essentially a vacuum. Everybody is locked into GORs except the PAC schools. The only way that the B1G can finance further expansion is by getting a buyer for that late time slot. ESPN is currently the only interested bidder.

We basically know what schools are going to be playing in that time slot and who’s going to be airing the games.

It’s simply up to ESPN to decide what intermediary (conference) they want to contract with for that TV deal. Nobody in the PAC is going anywhere unless ESPN finances that move.

(08-20-2022 06:37 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  When are people going to get over the idea that ESPN can just shuffle schools between the ACC and SEC? It’s a completely ridiculous notion that all the lawyers on the board have unanimously dismissed. Nothing you guys throw out protects ESPN from damages incurred by the schools left in the ACC. It’s a completely preposterous mechanism for realignment.

The schools in the ACC are in the ACC. What they do to improve their situation in the next 13 years doesn’t involve gross violations of their GOR. They can better monetize the ACCN, but that’s about the extent of what they can do to keep up.

It’s not a legal matter, although debunking the notion that the GOR is legally ironclad is one of the risks to be offloaded via settlement.


What damages? ACC HQ may not gain from settlement, but ACC schools do.

More money. Some gain a better post-GOR position. Others can have more say on who goes where than in free agency, likely even getting a school or two in P2 that otherwise would not be included.

Every year that passes represents a loss of utility to all in ACC.

(08-20-2022 04:27 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 04:10 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 02:35 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

Maybe ESPN is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington and the B1G.

And maybe ESPN also is waiting to see what happens or doesn't happen with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah and the Big XII.

Maybe waiting is a prudent strategy in this instance?

What happens with B1G is almost entirely up to ESPN. ESPN is the potential bidder for the late night slots that would fund further B1G expansion. And nothing happens with the BigXII except as a domino off further B1G raiding.

ESPN is on the clock right now. They’re the ones driving what happens next.

The only thing off in the OP is that the SEC could pay enough to land a few PAC schools alone and mitigate travel issues. The ACC doesn’t have that kind of money. The ACC would have to take more. Fortunately, there’s not that much market redundancy in the PAC, and new markets are what would increase ACCN revenue and make it a profitable move for the existing ACC schools.

ESPN could pay 300M and move 4 schools to the B1G. That would get them the best content but it would give the B1G even more leverage in future contracts.

ESPN could pay 300M for 10 and kick the can down the road.

ESPN could pay 300M for 8 and hit the ACC revenue price point. Oregon, Washington, and Stanford would need a little sweetener to bite on that ACC GoR though. That sweetener could come in the form of first buying the PACN. The price would have to be right that ESPN could recoup that in ACCN revenue.

Each of those options costs them 300M and fills their time slots. Option one basically guarantees that they earn more on those slots but pay more for the next contract. Option 2 is the safest. Option 3 probably earns the least but gives them control for 12 years.

ESPN and the SEC made a move last year.

Fox and the BIG made a move this year.

It’s ESPN’s turn now. With the SEC and the BIG done with the move, the ACC is next up in the pecking order. The Pac better takes that $300 million offer but they may not.

(08-20-2022 06:04 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  But trying to merge with the PAC, or even the B12, will simply result in a royal mess that is unlikely to help the ACC at all.

Alliance 2.0

(08-20-2022 06:37 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  When are people going to get over the idea that ESPN can just shuffle schools between the ACC and SEC? It’s a completely ridiculous notion that all the lawyers on the board have unanimously dismissed.

Not accurate. GreatDanes is one of the smartest observers on the board and has not dismissed it at all. If by unanimous you mean Frank then yes it's been unanimous.

(08-20-2022 06:37 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Nothing you guys throw out protects ESPN from damages incurred by the schools left in the ACC. It’s a completely preposterous mechanism for realignment.

The schools in the ACC are in the ACC. What they do to improve their situation in the next 13 years doesn’t involve gross violations of their GOR. They can better monetize the ACCN, but that’s about the extent of what they can do to keep up.

How exactly would the ACC better monetize the ACC Network?

But secondly, had you been paying attention, you would have noticed that most of the scenarios positing that ACC schools could move to the SEC had the ACC dissolving. There are no damages for schools remaining in the ACC if there are no schools in the ACC in the first place.

(08-20-2022 08:41 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-20-2022 06:04 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  But trying to merge with the PAC, or even the B12, will simply result in a royal mess that is unlikely to help the ACC at all.

Alliance 2.0

Better than that, but why would FSU and Miami want more votes to buy to get to P2?

If schools are added to ACC, a subsequent move of ACC schools to SEC or even BIG has been brokered by ESPN imo

(08-20-2022 02:35 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  So far, this is what I got. Correct me if I am wrong

1. ESPN is out for the next BIG Ten media deal. Dennis Dodd is speculating ESPN may still get a piece if BIG expands again although I don’t think it’s very credible.

2. ND is reported to stay with NBC.

3. It doesn’t seems like the B12 is actively negotiating for the next media deal at this point.

4. The Pac 12 wants to get the next media deal done soon. But it was reported that Fox is not interested in the Pac 12 tier 1 rights.

5. It seems like ESPN is the only network showing some interest in the Pac media deal. But so far no agreement has been reached and it was also reported that the ESPN’s cap for the Pac is $300 million per year, meaning $30 million per school.

6. It was reported that ESPN wants two late night games per week from the Pac. This makes sense to me.

So what would ESPN do next?

A. Obviously the best outcome for ESPN would be to get the Pac 12 media rights at a cheap price ($300 million or less). Then ESPN would kill PACN and instead broadcast some of Pac 12 games on ESPN plus or ACCN.

B. If the Pac 12 balks, then ESPN may want to tear the Pac 12 apart and move some of the desirable schools such as UO and UW to ESPN’s property.

C. Moving UO/UW and other Pac schools to the SEC doesn’t make an economic sense. The ESPN most likely would end up paying up more. The SEC probably doesn’t want them anyway.

D. Moving the Pac schools to the B12 is highly risky because the B12 is not entirely ESPN property and it seems like Fox is very interested in the B12 media rights. It is also uncertain if the B12 media value is higher than that of Pac12.

E. I guess moving some of the Pac schools to the BIG is possible. But again, the economic side won’t work unless new Pac schools get half share in the BIG. Most likely the BIG won’t expand until ND wants to join or the ACC GOR expires.

F. I have said this many times but moving the Pac schools to the ACC actually makes so much sense. ESPN won’t need all of the Pac 12 schools for two late night games. Why won’t they just move four or five desirable Pac 12 teams to the ACC? It would be cheaper for the ESPN. No need for having a loose partnership between the Pac and the ACC. The ACCN can just broadcast UO or UW games as conference games. For UO/UW, moving to the ACC makes sense because not only the money will be better but also new ACC will have much better playoff access than the depleted Pac 12. The only downside would be the long ACC GoR. But ND is going to stay independent and probably won’t leave until the GoR expires anyway.

The Pac 12 better accept the low ball offer. Otherwise, it may lose more members.

While it may seem ESPN has the PAC-12 over a barrel the reverse is also true. ESPN is losing BYU to the Big 12 Fox starting next year. BYU filled much of their 7:30 time slot. They also lost the MWC to CBS/Fox until 25/26. That means for fall of 23, 24 and 25 the only 7:30 window option ESPN will have is the PAC-12 to fill ESPN, ESPN2 and any spill over to ESPNU and ESPN Streaming.

Meanwhile in 24, 25 Fox will have BYU, USC, UCLA on Fox Sports or Fox Sports 1, with Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Air Force on Fox Sports 2. All those games could be better than the Oregon State/Arizona game on ESPN.

It’s possible the ESPN PAC-12 hold-up could be as much about inviting the top 4 MWC teams: likely SDSU, Fresno, Boise State and ???, as it is about more money for a 10 team conference that would struggle to fill up ESPN’s Friday and Saturday 7:30 time slots.

The B1G is not going to leave USC and UCLA on an island. They will add Oregon, Washington and Stanford. ND would be the fourth, but if they don't come (and it seems like they won't), then Cal gets the invitation. All 4 of the PAC schools have already contacted the B1G to express their interest in joining and a "leak" in July said the B1G was evaluating the 4 teams for membership.

With the top 6 PAC brands in the B1G, the B1G will create a fourth timeslot, on Pacific Coast time, for B1G games. ESPN will bid on it and win, with Fox taking whatever ESPN doesn't get.

The rest of the PAC teams either (i) commit to staying in the PAC conference and add at least 4 more teams to get to 10 or (ii) decide to dissolve the conference and move to the Big 12 or other conferences.

The B1G is not going to wait on ND. ND is on the clock and if they don't join soon, the B1G will move on with its expansion plans. The PAC schools are worth more than you think. Reports are that the B1G media deal includes pro-rata escalators for adding the PAC teams. Adding a fourth timeslot for ESPN would add even more value.

Looks like B1G is waiting for ESPN to set the market price for PAC games with their conference bid; simplifying negotiations going forward.