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Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 12:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 11:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  From a university president’s standpoint, Florida St and Miami to the Big 10 would mean having 15 conference mates who can support your AAU candidacy. I think the Big 10 would give their football programs a better chance to differentiate themselves rather than just being one of over a dozen southern schools in the SEC.

Strategically, it might be wise to announce that Florida St and Miami will become Big 10 members at a date to be determined, striking first, and then see how things play out.

With Florida, California, the Midwest, and Northeast locked in and the ACC severely weakened, I think ND finally comes to the table. If they play their cards right, the Big 10 could pull this off with just 20 schools, keeping their shares much higher than with 24.

Only if you were stupid would you think that. Nebraska got kicked out only because their Big 10 mates cast the deciding votes. Had Wisconsin and Michigan supported them as the Big 12 schools did, Nebraska would still be in the AAU. Athletics isn't going to protect you from the snobbishness of the presidents and chancellors.

Based on its recent/current research funding (at a glance), it looks like NU should have expected to lose membership. I would imagine that its heavily agriculture based...which I understand doesn't hold as much weight with the AAU fraternity. Did NU leadership even contest it?
08-17-2022 01:13 PM
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Post: #42
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:13 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 12:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 11:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  From a university president’s standpoint, Florida St and Miami to the Big 10 would mean having 15 conference mates who can support your AAU candidacy. I think the Big 10 would give their football programs a better chance to differentiate themselves rather than just being one of over a dozen southern schools in the SEC.

Strategically, it might be wise to announce that Florida St and Miami will become Big 10 members at a date to be determined, striking first, and then see how things play out.

With Florida, California, the Midwest, and Northeast locked in and the ACC severely weakened, I think ND finally comes to the table. If they play their cards right, the Big 10 could pull this off with just 20 schools, keeping their shares much higher than with 24.

Only if you were stupid would you think that. Nebraska got kicked out only because their Big 10 mates cast the deciding votes. Had Wisconsin and Michigan supported them as the Big 12 schools did, Nebraska would still be in the AAU. Athletics isn't going to protect you from the snobbishness of the presidents and chancellors.

Based on its recent/current research funding (at a glance), it looks like NU should have expected to lose membership. I would imagine that its heavily agriculture based...which I understand doesn't hold as much weight with the AAU fraternity. Did NU leadership even contest it?

That's why there was a vote, the only school ever kicked out of the AAU. Others have left on their own.
08-17-2022 01:18 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
To the OP: Yes, yes, and yes.

Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech and Clemson could be more valuable to the B1G than the SEC. These would be new market penetrations for the Big Ten, into Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, whereas the SEC already has a strong presence. So the B1G would add to their broadcast partners value, while the SEC not so much. The same is true with any Texas schools, but I don't see any with enough potential value to bother.

The same is probably true in reverse with Notre Dame. The SEC having a presence near Chicago and with Catholics in the midwest would be a huge demographic add. But for the B1G it's territory they mostly cover already.

Mind you Notre Dame and Clemson, probably also Florida State, possess enough draw on their own to stay with their geographically sensible choices rather than as an outlier for media needs.
08-17-2022 01:33 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  To the OP: Yes, yes, and yes.

Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech and Clemson could be more valuable to the B1G than the SEC. These would be new market penetrations for the Big Ten, into Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, whereas the SEC already has a strong presence. So the B1G would add to their broadcast partners value, while the SEC not so much. The same is true with any Texas schools, but I don't see any with enough potential value to bother.

The same is probably true in reverse with Notre Dame. The SEC having a presence near Chicago and with Catholics in the midwest would be a huge demographic add. But for the B1G it's territory they mostly cover already.

Mind you Notre Dame and Clemson, probably also Florida State, possess enough draw on their own to stay with their geographically sensible choices rather than as an outlier for media needs.

Oh they'd undoubtedly be of more value to the B1G. But waiting to see how things play out in a dozen years likely won't work out. The SEC is one step ahead, I'm sure.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2022 02:17 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-17-2022 01:41 PM
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Post: #45
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
Fun Prediction- SEC definitely expands again with anyone they want in the ACC along with Kansas in the mix. I say to 24, with pods of 6 with one permanent crossover:

NORTH
Duke Blue Devils - Vandy
Kentucky Wildcats - MO
North Carolina Tar Heels - SC
Tennessee Volunteers - AL
Virginia Cavaliers - FSU
West Virginia Mountaineers - KS

SOUTH
Clemson Tigers - aTm
Florida Gators - MSU
Florida State Seminoles - VA
Georgia Bulldogs - Aub
Miami Hurricanes - OK
South Carolina Gamecocks - NC

CENTRAL
Alabama Crimson Tide - TN
Auburn Tigers - GA
LSU Tigers - AR
Miss State Bulldogs - FL
Ole Miss Rebels - TX
Vanderbilt Commodores - Duke

WEST
Kansas Jayhawks - WV
Arkansas Razorbacks - LSU
Missouri Tigers - KY
Oklahoma Sooners - Mia
Texas A&M Aggies - Clem
Texas Longhorns - MS

This move would solve lots of strategic problems against the B1G and ACC (which ESPN would be left paying out at a fraction of the current contract).
The SEC is then the undisputed leader in Football, while having KU, UNC, and Duke with UK in one conference, it's also tops in Basketball.
08-17-2022 01:48 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #46
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
Slightly off-topic:

Does Big 10 membership do anything to energize and grow the fanbases at UVA, UNC, Duke, and/or GT?

It seems like historically these programs have never really been all that jazzed about football leading to lower attendance and viewership.
08-17-2022 01:48 PM
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mj4life Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Slightly off-topic:

Does Big 10 membership do anything to energize and grow the fanbases at UVA, UNC, Duke, and/or GT?

It seems like historically these programs have never really been all that jazzed about football leading to lower attendance and viewership.

Short answer is no. Carolina built it's stadium to large to begin with. So unless OSU,Mich,PSU come to Chapel Hill yearly then theirs no need for much expansion of Kenan other than a couple thousand more seats. My guess is the AD would rather grow average ticket price & add more amenities than enlarge the stadium. Within 10 years you will likely need to be a Rams Club member or football season ticket holder or both just to be able to purchase bball tickets once the Smith Center is renovated/replaced
08-17-2022 02:07 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  Fun Prediction- SEC definitely expands again with anyone they want in the ACC along with Kansas in the mix. I say to 24, with pods of 6 with one permanent crossover:

NORTH
Duke Blue Devils - Vandy
Kentucky Wildcats - MO
North Carolina Tar Heels - SC
Tennessee Volunteers - AL
Virginia Cavaliers - FSU
West Virginia Mountaineers - KS

SOUTH
Clemson Tigers - aTm
Florida Gators - MSU
Florida State Seminoles - VA
Georgia Bulldogs - Aub
Miami Hurricanes - OK
South Carolina Gamecocks - NC

CENTRAL
Alabama Crimson Tide - TN
Auburn Tigers - GA
LSU Tigers - AR
Miss State Bulldogs - FL
Ole Miss Rebels - TX
Vanderbilt Commodores - Duke

WEST
Kansas Jayhawks - WV
Arkansas Razorbacks - LSU
Missouri Tigers - KY
Oklahoma Sooners - Mia
Texas A&M Aggies - Clem
Texas Longhorns - MS

This move would solve lots of strategic problems against the B1G and ACC (which ESPN would be left paying out at a fraction of the current contract).
The SEC is then the undisputed leader in Football, while having KU, UNC, and Duke with UK in one conference, it's also tops in Basketball.

The SEC would become the #1 conference I'm hoops as well as being the top football conference. Lots of interesting matches in football and basketball.
08-17-2022 02:17 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Slightly off-topic:

Does Big 10 membership do anything to energize and grow the fanbases at UVA, UNC, Duke, and/or GT?

It seems like historically these programs have never really been all that jazzed about football leading to lower attendance and viewership.

I very highly doubt either of the P2 would grab those 4 together on the first wave. Unless they were just all-in on academics, non-football sports and reducing conference profitability.
08-17-2022 02:19 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
In isolation maybe FSU may have some resistance last decade.

But now the BIG presidents wouldn’t have issues with FSU being added, particularly in a package with UNC, UVa, and Miami. In fact, adding FSU (and Miami) in tandem is likely the only way to get UVa and UNC. On a macro level, Duke would not be out of the question by virtue of adding FSU/Miami

When added with USC, UCLA, potentially Stanford, there are enough academic elites to gloss over the 10-15 years FSU needs to reach AAU
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2022 02:26 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-17-2022 02:26 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 02:17 PM)1Dukie Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  Fun Prediction- SEC definitely expands again with anyone they want in the ACC along with Kansas in the mix. I say to 24, with pods of 6 with one permanent crossover:

NORTH
Duke Blue Devils - Vandy
Kentucky Wildcats - MO
North Carolina Tar Heels - SC
Tennessee Volunteers - AL
Virginia Cavaliers - FSU
West Virginia Mountaineers - KS

SOUTH
Clemson Tigers - aTm
Florida Gators - MSU
Florida State Seminoles - VA
Georgia Bulldogs - Aub
Miami Hurricanes - OK
South Carolina Gamecocks - NC

CENTRAL
Alabama Crimson Tide - TN
Auburn Tigers - GA
LSU Tigers - AR
Miss State Bulldogs - FL
Ole Miss Rebels - TX
Vanderbilt Commodores - Duke

WEST
Kansas Jayhawks - WV
Arkansas Razorbacks - LSU
Missouri Tigers - KY
Oklahoma Sooners - Mia
Texas A&M Aggies - Clem
Texas Longhorns - MS

This move would solve lots of strategic problems against the B1G and ACC (which ESPN would be left paying out at a fraction of the current contract).
The SEC is then the undisputed leader in Football, while having KU, UNC, and Duke with UK in one conference, it's also tops in Basketball.

The SEC would become the #1 conference I'm hoops as well as being the top football conference. Lots of interesting matches in football and basketball.

That South Division would be the 7th or 8th most powerful army in the world, when at peak strength.
08-17-2022 02:28 PM
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mikeinsec127 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
I think your question should be reversed. Would FSU accept a BIG invite? Of course it would. That is safety in a P2 conference and a $90m pay out waiting to happen. The bigger question is would the BIG accept a FSU application? My guess is it would, BUT that would mean an extraordinary set of circumstances ( missing out on ND, UVa, UNC, Duke/GT) happened and the BIG is trying to salvage a move to 24 schools by taking the biggest names left on the board.
08-17-2022 02:38 PM
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Eichorst Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
The B1G will try to establish a major foothold in GA+FL therefore the B1G is absolutely targeting at least 2 of Florida St, Clemson, and Miami IMO. And all 3 schools would accept B1G offers.
08-17-2022 02:38 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
GarnetAndBlue,

I'm with FTT on this. Everyone is going to have to wait until the 2030s to get their hands on ACC properties (other than maybe Notre Dame). The GOR is unbreakable. And you are never going to convince BC, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Wake and anyone not with an invite in hand at that very moment among VT, UVa, L'ville, Duke to dissolve for the sake of UNC, Miami, Clemson and FSU. Not going to happen. ESPN would have to agree to pay the leftovers $40M per year each (on an escalator) for a very long time, as well as those schools forking over $400M each.

That's like two additional SEC contracts for ESPN with no additional broadcast slots filled and likely not much revenue enhancement. Why would they do that when they were not giving anything extra to get Texas and Oklahoma, who are more valuable properties, into the SEC any earlier than the expiration of the Big 12 GOR?

Not going to happen. Everyone has to wait.

And yes I think the SEC will get the four top ACC properties.
08-17-2022 02:49 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 02:49 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  GarnetAndBlue,

I'm with FTT on this. Everyone is going to have to wait until the 2030s to get their hands on ACC properties (other than maybe Notre Dame). The GOR is unbreakable. And you are never going to convince BC, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Wake and anyone not with an invite in hand at that very moment among VT, UVa, L'ville, Duke to dissolve for the sake of UNC, Miami, Clemson and FSU. Not going to happen. ESPN would have to agree to pay the leftovers $40M per year each (on an escalator) for a very long time, as well as those schools forking over $400M each.

That's like two additional SEC contracts for ESPN with no additional broadcast slots filled and likely not much revenue enhancement. Why would they do that when they were not giving anything extra to get Texas and Oklahoma, who are more valuable properties, into the SEC any earlier than the expiration of the Big 12 GOR?

Not going to happen. Everyone has to wait.

And yes I think the SEC will get the four top ACC properties.

Yeah, I understand both sides. Which means it will probably happen in 2029 so that we can all say "see, I was sorta right!"

I am on the "iron-clads sink" side. If the ACC remains fully intact past 2030 I will be very very surprised.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2022 03:28 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-17-2022 03:18 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 12:28 PM)swardy76 Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 12:17 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 12:12 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  B1G: Atlantic
Maryland
Rutgers
North Carolina
Georgia Tech (Or Virginia)
Florida State
Miami

B1G: Central
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan State
Purdue
Indiana
Notre Dame

B1G: Plains
Michigan
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota

B1G: Pacific
Oregon
Washington
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal (or Utah/Colorado/Kansas/Arizona?)

Let's do it. Now go find some smart people with big brains and deep pockets to figure out that little GoR problem!

Iowa is not going to like it :)


Oh shoot. I missed Iowa. Apologize to all Hawkeye fans. ok.

B1G: Atlantic
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers
North Carolina
Florida State
Miami

B1G: Central
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Northwestern

B1G: Plains
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota
Illinois

B1G: Pacific
Washington
Oregon
Stanford
USC
UCLA
Cal/Utah/Arizona?

I split up Michigan and Michigan State to give some balance to Central/Plains.
08-17-2022 03:31 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 02:49 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  GarnetAndBlue,

I'm with FTT on this. Everyone is going to have to wait until the 2030s to get their hands on ACC properties (other than maybe Notre Dame). The GOR is unbreakable. And you are never going to convince BC, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Wake and anyone not with an invite in hand at that very moment among VT, UVa, L'ville, Duke to dissolve for the sake of UNC, Miami, Clemson and FSU. Not going to happen. ESPN would have to agree to pay the leftovers $40M per year each (on an escalator) for a very long time, as well as those schools forking over $400M each.

That's like two additional SEC contracts for ESPN with no additional broadcast slots filled and likely not much revenue enhancement. Why would they do that when they were not giving anything extra to get Texas and Oklahoma, who are more valuable properties, into the SEC any earlier than the expiration of the Big 12 GOR?

Not going to happen. Everyone has to wait.

And yes I think the SEC will get the four top ACC properties.

ESPN and the SEC can't help Oklahoma and Texas buy out early. It would merely add fuel to tortuous interference claims. What ESPN can do is to buy the B12 rights and exert some influence that way via a six year contract slightly above value.
08-17-2022 03:38 PM
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YNot Online
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Post: #58
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  Fun Prediction- SEC definitely expands again with anyone they want in the ACC along with Kansas in the mix. I say to 24, with pods of 6 with one permanent crossover:

NORTH
Duke Blue Devils - Vandy
Kentucky Wildcats - MO
North Carolina Tar Heels - SC
Tennessee Volunteers - AL
Virginia Cavaliers - FSU
West Virginia Mountaineers - KS

SOUTH
Clemson Tigers - aTm
Florida Gators - MSU
Florida State Seminoles - VA
Georgia Bulldogs - Aub
Miami Hurricanes - OK
South Carolina Gamecocks - NC

CENTRAL
Alabama Crimson Tide - TN
Auburn Tigers - GA
LSU Tigers - AR
Miss State Bulldogs - FL
Ole Miss Rebels - TX
Vanderbilt Commodores - Duke

WEST
Kansas Jayhawks - WV
Arkansas Razorbacks - LSU
Missouri Tigers - KY
Oklahoma Sooners - Mia
Texas A&M Aggies - Clem
Texas Longhorns - MS

This move would solve lots of strategic problems against the B1G and ACC (which ESPN would be left paying out at a fraction of the current contract).
The SEC is then the undisputed leader in Football, while having KU, UNC, and Duke with UK in one conference, it's also tops in Basketball.

I just don't see how the SEC can create enough value to justify 8 new schools. You're more likely to find enough value to justify an additional $300M with the right 4 new schools versus $600M with 8 schools. I mean, even if they're Basketball Kings, Duke and Kansas football......

If you leave out Kansas, Duke, WVU, and Miami, you still grow into NC and VA and take the best of the ACC in Florida State and Clemson.

NORTH
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Virginia Cavaliers

EAST
Florida Gators
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Tennessee Volunteers
Vanderbilt Commodores

SOUTH
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
LSU Tigers
Miss State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels

WEST
Arkansas Razorbacks
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Longhorns

Protect Alabama-Tennessee, Auburn-Georgia, and Florida-Florida State and you're set.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2022 04:06 PM by YNot.)
08-17-2022 04:02 PM
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ChooChoo Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 04:02 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-17-2022 01:48 PM)ChooChoo Wrote:  Fun Prediction- SEC definitely expands again with anyone they want in the ACC along with Kansas in the mix. I say to 24, with pods of 6 with one permanent crossover:

NORTH
Duke Blue Devils - Vandy
Kentucky Wildcats - MO
North Carolina Tar Heels - SC
Tennessee Volunteers - AL
Virginia Cavaliers - FSU
West Virginia Mountaineers - KS

SOUTH
Clemson Tigers - aTm
Florida Gators - MSU
Florida State Seminoles - VA
Georgia Bulldogs - Aub
Miami Hurricanes - OK
South Carolina Gamecocks - NC

CENTRAL
Alabama Crimson Tide - TN
Auburn Tigers - GA
LSU Tigers - AR
Miss State Bulldogs - FL
Ole Miss Rebels - TX
Vanderbilt Commodores - Duke

WEST
Kansas Jayhawks - WV
Arkansas Razorbacks - LSU
Missouri Tigers - KY
Oklahoma Sooners - Mia
Texas A&M Aggies - Clem
Texas Longhorns - MS

This move would solve lots of strategic problems against the B1G and ACC (which ESPN would be left paying out at a fraction of the current contract).
The SEC is then the undisputed leader in Football, while having KU, UNC, and Duke with UK in one conference, it's also tops in Basketball.

I just don't see how the SEC can create enough value to justify 8 new schools. You're more likely to find enough value to justify an additional $300M with the right 4 new schools versus $600M with 8 schools. I mean, even if they're Basketball Kings, Duke and Kansas football......

If you leave out Kansas, Duke, WVU, and Miami, you still grow into NC and VA and take the best of the ACC in Florida State and Clemson.

NORTH
Clemson Tigers
Florida State Seminoles
North Carolina Tar Heels
South Carolina Gamecocks
Virginia Cavaliers

EAST
Florida Gators
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Tennessee Volunteers
Vanderbilt Commodores

SOUTH
Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn Tigers
LSU Tigers
Miss State Bulldogs
Ole Miss Rebels

WEST
Arkansas Razorbacks
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Longhorns

Protect Alabama-Tennessee, Auburn-Georgia, and Florida-Florida State and you're set.

Excellent prediction. I would call that option A for sure. It gets the most valuable adjacent schools on the board. I know Kansas, WV, Duke, and Miami is a stretch but I suppose I was filling out the 24 slot bracket. I'm sure he Presidents would be fine at 20 if it produces more profits and ESPN is content with the content.
08-17-2022 04:25 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Would FSU accept a B1G Invite?
(08-17-2022 04:02 PM)YNot Wrote:  I just don't see how the SEC can create enough value to justify 8 new schools.

8 would be difficult with an equal sharing model. But also, the SEC recognizes this; they see that the B1G has better strategic footing. I think the SEC will make a very strong push for a school like Oregon at some point. Also don't count the SEC out of the Notre Dame courtship--the SEC won't simply accept that both of these schools will end up in the B1G.
08-17-2022 04:28 PM
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