(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

(08-13-2022 10:42 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

But dude… markets.

(08-13-2022 10:42 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

Gross hyperbole.

Let’s not resort to fallacies and stick to realizing everyone is talking about what do the P5 and top G5 schools bring. That should be clear.

There are conferences in which the market of such potential candidates do not need to strongly correlate to eyeballs. Rutgers is not an eyeball addition.

And even without such carriage taxation, all valuation models favor the upside that comes with being in a large market. WSU actually has many years of drawing eyeballs at rate better than many schools, but they are low on the lists.

(08-13-2022 11:14 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 10:42 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

Gross hyperbole.

Let’s not resort to fallacies and stick to realizing everyone is talking about what do the P5 and top G5 schools bring. That should be clear.

There are conferences in which the market of such potential candidates do not need to strongly correlate to eyeballs. Rutgers is not an eyeball addition.

And even without such carriage taxation, all valuation models favor the upside that comes with being in a large market. WSU actually has many years of drawing eyeballs at rate better than many schools, but they are low on the lists.

Let's not bring up Rutgers, which has the double combo of being in the biggest media market in the country (by far) and was added by the one and only conference that could really monetize markets directly. And frankly it's probably something of an outdated business model these days. Rutgers was basically a unicorn, not to be repeated.

The idea of saying markets reminds of the Shark Tank fallacy, where in people pitch the sharks on some business based on the strength of an industry and that it's a "insert number" billion dollar industry. And if you only got 1%, you'd be rich. Which sounds great in theory, but doesn't really help much in practice. It's true that bigger markets at least have the potential for more eyeballs and thus higher ratings. But there's little to believe sizable populations are going to suddenly become fans of "insert whatever school" unless they were already fans to begin with. Conferences and networks aren't paying for potential. They want to see what you can actually deliver.

(08-13-2022 11:12 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 10:42 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

But dude… markets.

More like this :)

(08-14-2022 12:27 AM)Jericho Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 11:12 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 10:42 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 06:13 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  People say Utah is a rival for BYU? Boise State is a rival to BYU, and they have been eating into the PAC 12 tv market since they have been winning more games than any of the PAC 12 NW schools and Utah.

dog....what?

(08-13-2022 07:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 05:01 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Harmon is a BYU homer.

What do markets matter to the BigXII? There is no B12 network to get “in footprint” carriage rates. FOX/ESPN aren’t using the BigXII to leverage carriage of those networks. The BigXII is built to provide filler material for their national TV partners, and is completely monetized based on gross eyeballs, not on markets.

Markets matter for all the conferences that have their own networks- ACC, SEC, B1G, PAC. But not the BigXII.

And anybody who wants to argue that point, please explain to all of us how the BigXII or their TV partners monetize markets through the BigXII’s TV contracts. Because I’m curious to see what kind of convoluted fantasy you’ve managed to create concerning how any of this works.

The same way ESPN does. More eyeballs means more advertising dollars. If you are in more markets, you are more likely to get viewers in those markets.

If that's all it took, then the Big 12 would add NYU and Long Beach State or something. Markets don't bring eyeballs. EYEBALLS bring eyeballs.

But dude… markets.

More like this :)

If ESPN can find a landing spot for Staten Island all it takes is a majority vote of the other Burroughs and Wyoming can be invited to the New York market.

CSNBBS facts bro.

(08-13-2022 02:13 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 01:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 12:51 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.deseret...f_amp=true

I can see why the nB12 would want Utah. But what would Utah get out of it?

If I'm Utah, I don't go to the nB12 unless the rest of the nPAC collapses.

They get consolidation, risk free.

What do they get out of the PAC, other than nostalgia for the P5 era while in the P2 era and some risk if BIG later expands?

The PAC schools are IMO clearly better associates. Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington and the Arizona schools are all IMO better conference mates than any nB12 schools save arguably Kansas. They also IMO have more brand value.

Why leave a more-prestigious group for a lesser one, unless you have a compelling reason? IMO, that reason will exist only if another B1G raid occurs.

(08-13-2022 11:14 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Gross hyperbole.

Let’s not resort to fallacies and stick to realizing everyone is talking about what do the P5 and top G5 schools bring. That should be clear.

There are conferences in which the market of such potential candidates do not need to strongly correlate to eyeballs. Rutgers is not an eyeball addition.

And even without such carriage taxation, all valuation models favor the upside that comes with being in a large market. WSU actually has many years of drawing eyeballs at rate better than many schools, but they are low on the lists.

No, it isn't really true that *all* valuation models favor larger markets. The truth is, the broadcast math is more complicated and more context dependent.

Market *penetration* is a huge factor, and not universal. Many G5 programs (as well as FCS, 1-AAA etc) sit in huge areas where they're not even the 6th most popular game in town, and don't have short-term potential to capture a higher percentage of eyes. This is the issue with say, San Jose State. 6th biggest TV market, tiny % of engaged fans...and with so few fans, the broadcaster can't properly take advantage of sponsorship or ad engagement opportunities in that market. Broadcasters have more precise tools to examine market penetration, but they absolutely have to run the numbers.

Market *location* is also a substantial factor, because broadcasters/conferences also often sell regional ad packages, and regional brands are not going to want to spend money selling into markets where they aren't located. As an example, I've had TV executives tell me that it's easier (and more profitable) to sell ads against MAC inventory than say, the old CUSA inventory, or even part of AAC inventory, because the ad reps know exactly what brands to pitch, and the brands know they can more easily double down on their intended midwestern audience. Bigger is not automatically better. Time zones, of course, are also a significant factor in valuation.


Without the ability to *tax* cable subscribers, and with streaming audiences (and streaming capacity) an increasingly bigger factor, audience size absolutely becomes a bigger factor.

Now, conferences expand for reasons beyond pure television broadcast potential. Washington State, for example, isn't as attractive a candidate, despite having an engaged audience, for other reasons, like academics, geography (Pullman is not easy to get to), politics and more.

I used an outlandish example to prove a point, but that point still remains.

(I'm literally writing a book chapter right now about this exact thing lol)

The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

(08-14-2022 09:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

So how does the AAC plan to monetize its TV product? The AAC may very well have a business model where market coverage comes into play. In that case it would be a different business model than the BigXII.

Just like any good or service, these conferences need to find a niche to be successful. Some of the conferences may be able to monetize large markets (like the B1G has) but others will not.

One has to be able to appreciate the different niches each conference is trying to fill in order to estimate where they can find value. It’s not so hard to appreciate that the BigXII is not a market-driven model and really has no foundation for moving in that direction.

(08-14-2022 09:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

While markets were a factor, AAC, last time and this time, pretty much just took the schools with the top athletic budgets. That, IMO, was every bit as big a factor as their strategy to get markets. They also tended to get national schools as opposed to smaller regional schools, like Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Southern Mississippi and Marshall (or any of the Sun Belt schools excluding Georgia St.).

(08-14-2022 09:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

It was a stupid move by the AAC. Mike Aresco did what ESPIN told him to do. Only his sock puppet accounts on the AAC board think it was a good idea.
*Remember what Uncle Billy Bobby always says about ESPN+
The plus is a minus.

(08-14-2022 09:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

What ESPN essentially did with the AAC expansion is buy 6 lotto tickets.

They grabbed 6 schools that had small markets shares in decent sized markets and basically hoped that they’d get more bang for their buck if 1 or 2 of those schools suddenly become able to increase their market share.

It’s a total gamble and that’s why I think they added 6 as opposed to 2 or 4.

(08-14-2022 07:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  The AAC added an all-around solid program in UAB and 5 market schools that don’t draw big eyeballs. We have an entire expansion phase from last year telling us market size matters.

What ESPN essentially did with the AAC expansion is buy 6 lotto tickets.

They grabbed 6 schools that had small markets shares in decent sized markets and basically hoped that they’d get more bang for their buck if 1 or 2 of those schools suddenly become able to increase their market share.

It’s a total gamble and that’s why I think they added 6 as opposed to 2 or 4.

UTSA is a sleeping giant.

Utah isn’t leaving the PAC-10 unless everyone moves to the Big 12.

The Utah Utes football program is the most underrated football program in the conference besides properly rated Oregon. Most teams are cutting capacity at their stadiums while Utah is exploding.

(08-13-2022 02:35 PM)Jericho Wrote:  

(08-13-2022 01:52 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  This is a big help to Oregon’s bid:

Quote:Oregon president Michael Schill just left for the Big Ten. He’s taking the same job at Northwestern, where he will be a voting member of the President’s Council of that league — voting on such things as expansion teams to invite in the future.

I doubt it means much. If Oregon was truly just one vote short than it's possible Northwestern could become the "swing" vote. But there's no evidence to suggest that's even remotely close to being true. Not to mention, what does Schill really care about Oregon if he does not work there anymore. Or did I need my tinfoil hat to plan out the conspiracy of Oregon planting a sleeper agent as president of a Big Ten school all to facilitate its inclusion in the Big 10. Only need to plant about 10 more sleeper agent presidents.

His job is to act in the best interest of Northwestern, not to be an Oregon mole. If Oregon was in the Big Ten, it is possible NU would benefit from his contacts there but those contacts (and Schill) won't be there forever. Any decision needs to be what benefits Northwestern in the long term.