(08-25-2022 02:12 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 01:55 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 11:22 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:37 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:01 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  An adjustment. Like reverting to the between the tackles hand off on 2nd and 12 *and* 3 and 9, instead of just the former by itself.

If he really wants to go whole hog wild and get seriously into that OODA loop disruption, go three and out on that pitch between the tackles 3 drives in a row. That'll really throw USC into a tizzy that they cant think their way out of.

Actually, I'm betting we come out throwing.... We have a pretty talented group of WRs and if they go zone, we can get open and move the ball. I'd bet on 3 or 7 points on our first drive.... with a close second bet being 3 and out if we drop the ball. They will change to man and bring some pressure and things will get ugly quickly, so we will try and come back running...

That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong about the pressure... not that they won't bring it, but that it will get ugly quickly. That's why we need the OL. If they can get pressure without bringing an extra player, it will be a very long day.

What would you care to bet on 3 or 6 (even) on our first drive?

How about, if they dont score on their first drive -- you buy me the ingredients for a batch of beer. Roughly 50 bucks. I save some for you the next time I see you.

If they do, a decent bottle of style of booze your choice, my choice on brand. 50-ish dollars or so.

Honestly, this might be the only reason to tempt me to watch or listen to the first quarter, mind you..... Hate to say it but this FB season is shaping up to be an apathetic 'Oh good grief' thingy for me now. Yes, I am prejudging and all that jazz, but I am close to being just absolutely tapped out looking out on a 4 year pile of smoldering dumpsters.

Playing USC on game 1 doesnt add any excitement, just a sense of 'helluva way to start a season I have simply a shudder about even if we started out by playing Princeton or some other Div 2 or even Div 3 team.' Maybe include some high school programs in that.

I'm in.... like you, to make it worth at least paying attention to for a bit. I'd ask you what you're going to call the beer, but it might give some secrets away. Some form of flying bug juice.

Just as an aside though... please note that I put the odds that we score 'something' about equal to the odds that we go 3 and out. I've just seen this for so many years... under so many coaches... that I'm going with the odds. I remember my favorite chant at Rice... 'We scored first' as I was quite often (almost always?) involved in that. If we win the toss and defer, we won't score first. If I were Coach, I might want the ball to start regardless.

Teams like USC can sometimes make mistakes by being over-anxious against teams like ours.

Based on what I saw at the scrimmage, we have a few new wrinkles on offense and this is our chance to get our 15 seconds of fame to start the season which is about all we can really hope for... A respectable showing in what will likely be a bad loss...

It all depends on the OL... IMO.

Easy call on the name. Hambone's Lost Bet Ale.

Tanq Hambone

(08-25-2022 03:19 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 02:12 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 01:55 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 11:22 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:37 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Actually, I'm betting we come out throwing.... We have a pretty talented group of WRs and if they go zone, we can get open and move the ball. I'd bet on 3 or 7 points on our first drive.... with a close second bet being 3 and out if we drop the ball. They will change to man and bring some pressure and things will get ugly quickly, so we will try and come back running...

That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong about the pressure... not that they won't bring it, but that it will get ugly quickly. That's why we need the OL. If they can get pressure without bringing an extra player, it will be a very long day.

What would you care to bet on 3 or 6 (even) on our first drive?

How about, if they dont score on their first drive -- you buy me the ingredients for a batch of beer. Roughly 50 bucks. I save some for you the next time I see you.

If they do, a decent bottle of style of booze your choice, my choice on brand. 50-ish dollars or so.

Honestly, this might be the only reason to tempt me to watch or listen to the first quarter, mind you..... Hate to say it but this FB season is shaping up to be an apathetic 'Oh good grief' thingy for me now. Yes, I am prejudging and all that jazz, but I am close to being just absolutely tapped out looking out on a 4 year pile of smoldering dumpsters.

Playing USC on game 1 doesnt add any excitement, just a sense of 'helluva way to start a season I have simply a shudder about even if we started out by playing Princeton or some other Div 2 or even Div 3 team.' Maybe include some high school programs in that.

I'm in.... like you, to make it worth at least paying attention to for a bit. I'd ask you what you're going to call the beer, but it might give some secrets away. Some form of flying bug juice.

Just as an aside though... please note that I put the odds that we score 'something' about equal to the odds that we go 3 and out. I've just seen this for so many years... under so many coaches... that I'm going with the odds. I remember my favorite chant at Rice... 'We scored first' as I was quite often (almost always?) involved in that. If we win the toss and defer, we won't score first. If I were Coach, I might want the ball to start regardless.

Teams like USC can sometimes make mistakes by being over-anxious against teams like ours.

Based on what I saw at the scrimmage, we have a few new wrinkles on offense and this is our chance to get our 15 seconds of fame to start the season which is about all we can really hope for... A respectable showing in what will likely be a bad loss...

It all depends on the OL... IMO.

Easy call on the name. Hambone's Lost Bet Ale.

Tanq Hambone <--- Shouldn't you be the one doing the kicking here?

Of course you were always involved in that. A couple of first downs and you got to kick and the odds of you making that were well above 75%. A Rice touchdown and you got to kick the PAT, another 90%+ proposition.
I watched the second scrimmage last week and I don't think this is all going to depend on the OL play out of the chute.

(08-25-2022 04:03 PM)ruowls Wrote:  I watched the second scrimmage last week and I don't think this is all going to depend on the OL play out of the chute.

Please go on...

Regarding predictions of 1st drive:
Typical Rice would be to look sharp in opening with 3 first downs, driving down to just barely FG range. We'd then take a sack on 3rd down, forcing a punt, which we shank.

(08-25-2022 10:37 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:01 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 09:18 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  A new coach will want to win this game handily, but he will also want to keep things close to the vest to save some tricks for later. Whereas our coaches will very much have the first two drives mapped out. I suspect it will be very much like the ND game.... or Bailiff's A&M game. Start off with things that weren't in our game films... and then an adjustment.

An adjustment. Like reverting to the between the tackles hand off on 2nd and 12 *and* 3 and 9, instead of just the former by itself.

If he really wants to go whole hog wild and get seriously into that OODA loop disruption, go three and out on that pitch between the tackles 3 drives in a row. That'll really throw USC into a tizzy that they cant think their way out of.

Actually, I'm betting we come out throwing.... We have a pretty talented group of WRs and if they go zone, we can get open and move the ball. I'd bet on 3 or 7 points on our first drive.... with a close second bet being 3 and out if we drop the ball. They will change to man and bring some pressure and things will get ugly quickly, so we will try and come back running...

That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong about the pressure... not that they won't bring it, but that it will get ugly quickly. That's why we need the OL. If they can get pressure without bringing an extra player, it will be a very long day.

This is so spot on. They come out in base D, soft zone and we make a few first downs. Maybe we can at least get into FG range on that first drive- it might be our only chance to score, unless it's against their walkons in the 4th quarter.

Your "we scored first" comment reminded me that we were up 3-0 on 1988 National Champion Notre Dame.

Of course the other way this could go is Stanford a few years ago- just a dumpster fire from the first snap and we are not ready to play.

(08-26-2022 10:30 AM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:37 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:01 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 09:18 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  A new coach will want to win this game handily, but he will also want to keep things close to the vest to save some tricks for later. Whereas our coaches will very much have the first two drives mapped out. I suspect it will be very much like the ND game.... or Bailiff's A&M game. Start off with things that weren't in our game films... and then an adjustment.

An adjustment. Like reverting to the between the tackles hand off on 2nd and 12 *and* 3 and 9, instead of just the former by itself.

If he really wants to go whole hog wild and get seriously into that OODA loop disruption, go three and out on that pitch between the tackles 3 drives in a row. That'll really throw USC into a tizzy that they cant think their way out of.

Actually, I'm betting we come out throwing.... We have a pretty talented group of WRs and if they go zone, we can get open and move the ball. I'd bet on 3 or 7 points on our first drive.... with a close second bet being 3 and out if we drop the ball. They will change to man and bring some pressure and things will get ugly quickly, so we will try and come back running...

That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong about the pressure... not that they won't bring it, but that it will get ugly quickly. That's why we need the OL. If they can get pressure without bringing an extra player, it will be a very long day.

This is so spot on. They come out in base D, soft zone and we make a few first downs. Maybe we can at least get into FG range on that first drive- it might be our only chance to score, unless it's against their walkons in the 4th quarter.

Your "we scored first" comment reminded me that we were up 3-0 on 1988 National Champion Notre Dame.

Of course the other way this could go is Stanford a few years ago- just a dumpster fire from the first snap and we are not ready to play.

Up for a similar bet on a first drive score as I have with Ham?

{Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

(08-26-2022 12:12 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 10:30 AM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:37 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 10:01 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 09:18 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  A new coach will want to win this game handily, but he will also want to keep things close to the vest to save some tricks for later. Whereas our coaches will very much have the first two drives mapped out. I suspect it will be very much like the ND game.... or Bailiff's A&M game. Start off with things that weren't in our game films... and then an adjustment.

An adjustment. Like reverting to the between the tackles hand off on 2nd and 12 *and* 3 and 9, instead of just the former by itself.

If he really wants to go whole hog wild and get seriously into that OODA loop disruption, go three and out on that pitch between the tackles 3 drives in a row. That'll really throw USC into a tizzy that they cant think their way out of.

Actually, I'm betting we come out throwing.... We have a pretty talented group of WRs and if they go zone, we can get open and move the ball. I'd bet on 3 or 7 points on our first drive.... with a close second bet being 3 and out if we drop the ball. They will change to man and bring some pressure and things will get ugly quickly, so we will try and come back running...

That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong about the pressure... not that they won't bring it, but that it will get ugly quickly. That's why we need the OL. If they can get pressure without bringing an extra player, it will be a very long day.

This is so spot on. They come out in base D, soft zone and we make a few first downs. Maybe we can at least get into FG range on that first drive- it might be our only chance to score, unless it's against their walkons in the 4th quarter.

Your "we scored first" comment reminded me that we were up 3-0 on 1988 National Champion Notre Dame.

Of course the other way this could go is Stanford a few years ago- just a dumpster fire from the first snap and we are not ready to play.

Up for a similar bet on a first drive score as I have with Ham?

I don't think my conviction level is as high as Ham's, but what the hell- sure! I'm guessing they've got some newbies on defense that we might fool for a drive. Same bet- $50 two ways

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

HA!

I don't like to make negative bets on Rice, but there could be some prop bets that I feel are not nearly as much of a long shot as they should be...

USC first score on INT or fumble return on first Rice drive
USC return TD (on first Rice punt)

Honestly +35 is a huge line. 3rd highest of week one (behind UT -41 v ULM and OU -40 v UTEP). In my younger, more reckless days I would have played that.

(08-26-2022 02:50 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

HA!

I don't like to make negative bets on Rice, but there could be some prop bets that I feel are not nearly as much of a long shot as they should be...

This is a positive bet on Rice for you. Nothing could be a better start than 1 drive, 1 score. *Im* the negative Nellie here.

Actually its a win/ win (to steal that garbage term) for me. Rice first drive score --Im happy. Rice non-score first drive is offset by two good batches of beer.

(08-26-2022 02:50 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

HA!

I don't like to make negative bets on Rice, but there could be some prop bets that I feel are not nearly as much of a long shot as they should be...

USC first score on INT or fumble return on first Rice drive
USC return TD (on first Rice punt)

Honestly +35 is a huge line. 3rd highest of week one (behind UT -41 v ULM and OU -40 v UTEP). In my younger, more reckless days I would have played that.

Back when I used to bet Rice football, it seemed that Rice was less likely to cover a big spread (31+) than a medium one (10-14). I eventually stayed away from the big spreads.

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

#BetweenTheHedges

Pretty sad when a Dana Dimmel coached team is a huge better bet. Guess he would have been a better hire and imagine UTEP isn’t paying him $1M a year.

(08-27-2022 10:15 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  

Pretty sad when a Dana Dimmel coached team is a huge better bet. Guess he would have been a better hire and imagine UTEP isn’t paying him $1M a year.

The Owls are tied for 10th (in an 11-team league). Just imagine what Bloom can do when he gets another 4 years!

(08-25-2022 11:15 PM)Barney Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 04:03 PM)ruowls Wrote:  I watched the second scrimmage last week and I don't think this is all going to depend on the OL play out of the chute.

Please go on...

Regarding predictions of 1st drive:
Typical Rice would be to look sharp in opening with 3 first downs, driving down to just barely FG range. We'd then take a sack on 3rd down, forcing a punt, which we shank.

There were quite a few first down passes. Several of the first few passes were play-action naked bootleg ones that were quick short throws no more than 2-3 yards down field. Rush would unlikely affect these throws much especially early. Unfortunately, it took a bit for the offense to get a first down and string together a few for a drive. Deeper throws took a bit some time to get on track but later where able to complete some. I also saw 2 fumbled snaps and one snap over the head of the QB. Saw 1 INT by the defense and 1 missed FG. In summary, I didn't see a whole lot to convince me that the offense will methodically be going down the field on the opening drive.

Meanwhile WKU, a 33 1/2 point fave, is leading FCS Austin Peay 20-21 with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd. Of course WKU is now coached by Tyson Helton with his dad Kim an assistant.

(08-26-2022 09:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

#BetweenTheHedges

does this change the wager at all?

(08-27-2022 02:23 PM)ruowls Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 09:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

#BetweenTheHedges

does this change the wager at all?

Not me... I expect to see exactly what you saw (without the missed FG)... a number of short passes on some sort of play action or boot or RPO.... with few passes more than 7 yards or so... I expect the talented DBs to not really be tested much... and instead simply get their ears wet and keep things in front of them.... before ratcheting things up in drives 2 and beyond. Once they get a comfortable lead, they will likely go back to somewhat soft defense with back-ups, ratcheting it up only on 'important' plays to simulate such events in bigger games.

(08-26-2022 03:16 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 02:50 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

HA!

I don't like to make negative bets on Rice, but there could be some prop bets that I feel are not nearly as much of a long shot as they should be...

This is a positive bet on Rice for you. Nothing could be a better start than 1 drive, 1 score. *Im* the negative Nellie here.

Actually its a win/ win (to steal that garbage term) for me. Rice first drive score --Im happy. Rice non-score first drive is offset by two good batches of beer.

Context miss on my part. I meant the two hypothetical USC bets that followed in that post. Maybe a little too snarky.

I am happy with our bet. Keeps things interesting for a few plays at least.

(08-29-2022 08:54 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-27-2022 02:23 PM)ruowls Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 09:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

#BetweenTheHedges

does this change the wager at all?

Not me... I expect to see exactly what you saw (without the missed FG)... a number of short passes on some sort of play action or boot or RPO.... with few passes more than 7 yards or so... I expect the talented DBs to not really be tested much... and instead simply get their ears wet and keep things in front of them.... before ratcheting things up in drives 2 and beyond. Once they get a comfortable lead, they will likely go back to somewhat soft defense with back-ups, ratcheting it up only on 'important' plays to simulate such events in bigger games.

Spoken like a man who has seen this movie before. Exactly what I expect too. I like our first drive score bet- if WE can execute. Dropped passes, false starts, etc. will kill that drive in a hurry

(08-29-2022 09:34 AM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 08:54 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(08-27-2022 02:23 PM)ruowls Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 09:33 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(08-26-2022 01:10 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  {Hambone furiously trying to figure out how to arbitrage this bet into a win/win for him}

#BetweenTheHedges

does this change the wager at all?

Not me... I expect to see exactly what you saw (without the missed FG)... a number of short passes on some sort of play action or boot or RPO.... with few passes more than 7 yards or so... I expect the talented DBs to not really be tested much... and instead simply get their ears wet and keep things in front of them.... before ratcheting things up in drives 2 and beyond. Once they get a comfortable lead, they will likely go back to somewhat soft defense with back-ups, ratcheting it up only on 'important' plays to simulate such events in bigger games.

Spoken like a man who has seen this movie before. Exactly what I expect too. I like our first drive score bet- if WE can execute. Dropped passes, false starts, etc. will kill that drive in a hurry

What do you want the beer brewed with the recipe you are going to buy with the bet named?