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The 2021 preseason rankings weren't very accurate:

Teams that were predicted to end up in the AP final top 25, but didn't make it are highlighted in green.

Teams that were not predicted to end up in the AP final top 25, but made it are highlighted in blue.


2021...................................2021
Preseason...........................Final
AP Top 25...........................AP Top 25
Ranking:...........................Ranking:

1. Alabama.......................Georgia
2. Oklahoma.......................Alabama
3. Clemson.......................Michigan
4. Ohio State.......................Cincinnati
5. Georgia.......................Baylor
6. Texas A&M.......................Ohio State
7. Iowa State.......................Oklahoma State
8. Cincinnati.......................Notre Dame
9. Notre Dame.......................Michigan State
10. North Carolina.......................Oklahoma
11. Oregon.......................Ole Miss
12. Wisconsin.......................Utah
13. Florida.......................Pittsburgh
14. Miami (FL).......................Clemson
15. USC.......................Wake Forest
16. LSU.......................Louisiana
17. Indiana.......................Houston
18. Iowa.......................Kentucky
19. Penn State.......................BYU
20. Washington.......................NC State
21. Texas.......................Arkansas
22. Coastal Carolina.......................Oregon
23. Louisiana.......................Iowa
24. Utah.......................Utah State
25. Arizona State.......................San Diego State

Hit Rate: 44% (11/25)

Miss Rate: 56% (14/25)

SUMMARY:

Fewer than half of the teams in the 2021 preseason AP top 25 ended up in the final AP top 25.

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Over the last 12 seasons, 20 teams that started the season ranked in the top 10 finished un-ranked, just about 1.67 teams per season. But in the last two years, three top 10 teams finished un-ranked.

I hate preseason, and for that matter early season, polls. How are you supposed to evaluate a team that hasn’t even taken the field? You need data points to make a fair comparison. The other thing I hate about the poll voters is that they never seem to take into consideration things like strength of schedule. There’s this tendency to just stick with your preseason ballot and keep moving teams up as ones above take losses without looking at who’s actually won impressive games.

This is the pre-season coaches top 25 for 2022:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame
6. Michigan
7. Texas A&M
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma
10. Baylor
11. Oklahoma State
12. Oregon
13. NC State
14. Michigan State
15. USC
16. Pittsburgh
17. Miami
18. Texas
19. Wake Forest
20. Wisconsin
21. Kentucky
22. Cincinnati
23. Arkansas
24. Ole Miss
25. Houston

It would be interesting to speculate about which teams will/won't end up in the final top 25?

My main speculation is that there will be 5-7 non-P5 teams in the final top 25. There are only two in this preseason poll.

That's interesting.

I also like comparing the polls to the Vegas odds to win the national title, as I find the differences interesting.

For example, compare LSU vs Houston in the Coaches poll, and the Vegas CFP title odds below. Houston is ranked #25 in the Coaches poll, while LSU is unranked. But Vegas has LSU at 11th most likely to win the title, while Houston is tied for 40th most likely. Vegas says LSU, even though they are very much a long-shot, is 3x more likely to win the title than Houston.

Why the huge discrepancy? It makes sense to me: Regarding the coaches poll and who is likely to finish higher, Houston had a better year last season, and their program seems stable, and they have a lot of momentum. They also have a very soft presumptive schedule. That seems to add up to another 10+ win season, and thus a final national ranking. OTOH, LSU has been in disarray the past couple seasons, and is facing a transition year with a new coach. They seem to be staring down the barrel of another 6-6 transition/rebuilding type year, and out of the final rankings. So if I was asked to predict who is likely to have a better year, I expect that Houston will finish higher in the polls this year than LSU.

However, if God were to tell me that either Houston or LSU will in fact win this year's national title, and told me I had to guess right with my life on the line, I wouldn't hesitate to say "LSU". Because LSU, for all their flaws, has much more talented players and better coaches, such that in the unlikely event that they "pull it all together", a national title is a possibility. In contrast, even if everything possible goes right for Houston, I think they have essentially zero % chance to win the title. They just don't have the horses, so their ceiling is below that. So the Vegas odds make sense too. Houston is likely to have the better season, but LSU has the "puncher's chance" to win it all that Houston doesn't.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/futu...nship-odds

(08-09-2022 06:15 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I hate preseason, and for that matter early season, polls. How are you supposed to evaluate a team that hasn’t even taken the field? You need data points to make a fair comparison. The other thing I hate about the poll voters is that they never seem to take into consideration things like strength of schedule. There’s this tendency to just stick with your preseason ballot and keep moving teams up as ones above take losses without looking at who’s actually won impressive games.

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These are the non-P5 teams that I believe may be most likely to end up in the final post-season top 25:

Cincinnati
Houston or UCF
BYU
San Diego State, Fresno State, or Air Force
Boise St.
Appalachian State or Coastal Carolina

It will never happen, however I wish there were no polls released until sometime between maybe week 2-4. Lets get a few games in the books first before we have polls.

The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

(08-09-2022 06:57 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

I think they are biased in favor of the G5, at least between positions say 15-25. Compare the final polls with the final MC last year.

Voters seem to prefer good records vs soft schedules, so often vote a 10-2 G5 over an 8-4 P that played a much tougher schedule.

(08-09-2022 07:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:57 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

I think they are biased in favor of the G5, at least between positions say 15-25. Compare the final polls with the final MC last year.

Voters seem to prefer good records vs soft schedules, so often vote a 10-2 G5 over an 8-4 P that played a much tougher schedule.

Considering the fact that the final coaches poll had zero 10-win G5s and one 8-4 P5, I challenge your assertion.

(08-09-2022 08:42 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 07:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:57 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

I think they are biased in favor of the G5, at least between positions say 15-25. Compare the final polls with the final MC last year.

Voters seem to prefer good records vs soft schedules, so often vote a 10-2 G5 over an 8-4 P that played a much tougher schedule.

Considering the fact that the final coaches poll had zero 10-win G5s and one 8-4 P5, I challenge your assertion.

"zero 10-win G5s":

4. Cincinnati (13-1)
17. Houston (12-2)
18. Louisiana (13-1)
24. Utah State (11-3)

Top 25 teams with 10 wins: Mississippi, Utah, Kentucky, Clemson, Oregon, BYU, & Iowa. Strictly speaking, BYU is neither a P5 nor a G5 school, but an independent.

P5 schools with fewer than 10 wins:

19. NC State (9-3)
20. Arkansas (9-4)
25. Texas A&M (8-4)

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They usually start the preseason polls with the LITTLE G5 GUYS so far down the list that it is IMPOSSIBLE for them to ever get in the 4 team playoffs--they can get the top 10 but not top 4 -ala UCF 2/3 seasons ago-they were UNDEFEATED but didn't get in the playoffs --------before you say Cincinnati --they had already been invited to the power 5 so-called big12 club last season

(08-09-2022 06:55 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  It will never happen, however I wish there were no polls released until sometime between maybe week 2-4. Lets get a few games in the books first before we have polls.

I agree

There should be no football rankings before Week 4 at the earliest.

In the long run: If you want good rankings and good press, graduate a lot of media and journalism majors.

It's a worthwhile topic to ask potential members about in conference expansion.

“ Ridiculously inaccurate and, more importantly, they're BIASED.”

— It’s the usual beauty pageant theatrics. It is what it is and it ain’t what ain’t.

(08-10-2022 01:29 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  “ Ridiculously inaccurate and, more importantly, they're BIASED.”

— It’s the usual beauty pageant theatrics. It is what it is and it ain’t what ain’t.

Beyond that, it's possible that the whole thing is a big, gigantic racket, in which the vast majority have been duped into thinking that this was really collegiate athletics, when it was all really just a cynical entertainment business, with a few puppetmasters pulling the strings (including the heartstrings of many).

Yet, the fans of the mega-super-power teams have it worst off, in a way, because for them, it's no longer collegiate athletics in its purest form. The P5 schools, and especially the major P5 sometimes seem to be little more than wh*res, in a manner of speaking.

One could say that the fans of schools such as Bucknell and Lafayette are better off than the fans of all the P5 teams, because they can still enjoy the pure beauty of college athletics the way it was during our halcyon and naive days of youth.

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(08-09-2022 07:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:57 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

I think they are biased in favor of the G5, at least between positions say 15-25. Compare the final polls with the final MC last year.

Voters seem to prefer good records vs soft schedules, so often vote a 10-2 G5 over an 8-4 P that played a much tougher schedule.

Exactly. Polls aren't measuring which teams are the strongest. They are just a compilation of which teams have the fewest losses. If a school plays every game against the 12 best teams in the country and beats half of them, they won't be ranked. If they play every game against the bottom half of the FBS and only lose to two of them, they will be ranked.

For those who say that we shouldn't have any polls until every team has played X number of games, I would only disagree with whatever number that X is unless the number is 15 or higher.

The only thing we can say for certain about any poll, at any time of the season, is that they are always wrong.

“All models are wrong, some are useful.”
- George Box

(08-09-2022 08:53 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 08:42 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 07:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 06:57 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  The polls are rigged/biased against the little guy

I think they are biased in favor of the G5, at least between positions say 15-25. Compare the final polls with the final MC last year.

Voters seem to prefer good records vs soft schedules, so often vote a 10-2 G5 over an 8-4 P that played a much tougher schedule.

Considering the fact that the final coaches poll had zero 10-win G5s and one 8-4 P5, I challenge your assertion.

"zero 10-win G5s":

4. Cincinnati (13-1)
17. Houston (12-2)
18. Louisiana (13-1)
24. Utah State (11-3)

Top 25 teams with 10 wins: Mississippi, Utah, Kentucky, Clemson, Oregon, BYU, & Iowa. Strictly speaking, BYU is neither a P5 nor a G5 school, but an independent.

P5 schools with fewer than 10 wins:

19. NC State (9-3)
20. Arkansas (9-4)
25. Texas A&M (8-4)

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Literally none of those G5s have 10 wins. They had to get 11+ to be in the board, and a 12-win UTSA was even bounced. Compare that to 10 P5 teams with 10 or less wins.

There are roughly equal amounts of P5 and G5 teams. You can't run down that top 25 and tell me that the handicap given to P5s isn't more than 2 wins. It might be somewhere between 2-3, but it's more than 2.