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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #1
Network proxy wars
I wouldn’t be surprised if we are about to see a proxy war between the networks as they attempt to use the rights of the M3 to peel away the top teams of one or more leagues to their centerpiece conference, and then reshuffling the remnants to another league that they also own.
08-09-2022 03:07 PM
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LeeNobody Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-09-2022 03:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I wouldn’t be surprised if we are about to see a proxy war between the networks as they attempt to use the rights of the M3 to peel away the top teams of one or more leagues to their centerpiece conference, and then reshuffling the remnants to another league that they also own.


Yes i think the ACC will be used to gather up the best of the rest for ESPN.

I am not sure that Fox has interest in any more than the B1G content they have. Assuming 10 to 16 B1G games a week in season. 1 OTA to CBS and NBC a week. 1 ota to big noon on fox. There 2 or 3 more windows for Fox if they have a compelling west coast game game. BTN each could also have 2/3 window. FS1 could take 2 more. The remaining 2 to 3 games end up on paramount and peacock. Where does fox have space? The b1g deal also includes some games on friday i am sure.

Espn just opened up 14 tv slots a week. They would likely only need 4 Pac time zone schools to stasify the 3 window. Why pay for all the Pac when you only need a small number.

I think the question is who needs b12 and pac leftovers? Tbs/ hbomax? They appear to be burning it all down. Usa? Does going to fridays help them? Counter program mac games on tuesday?
08-09-2022 04:04 PM
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RE: Network proxy wars
My take on the proxy war is ESPN will fight a delaying action, use their remaining ESPN and ESPN+ budget to lock down the Pac-12 into the 2030s, even if it requires a $400M plus offer. I think they will also out bid NBC for Notre Dame, actually pay them closer to the $75M they want to stay Independent. The idea is keep Fox from getting the optimal lineup in 2026 with Notre Dame and three more west coast schools in Stanford, Washington and Oregon. They want to delay that into the 2030s when ESPN can direct the best ACC programs into the SEC (right now that's North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami; but keep an eye on Louisville).

This was supposed to be a signal which way Oklahoma was going to go. If SoonerTv re-upped with Fox then the B1G, if with ESPN then the SEC. But the SEC moved way early, before the SoonerTV even came up for it's last three years. But anyway, here's the very anticlimactic official news.
08-11-2022 02:45 AM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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RE: Network proxy wars
(08-11-2022 02:45 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  My take on the proxy war is ESPN will fight a delaying action, use their remaining ESPN and ESPN+ budget to lock down the Pac-12 into the 2030s, even if it requires a $400M plus offer. I think they will also out bid NBC for Notre Dame, actually pay them closer to the $75M they want to stay Independent. The idea is keep Fox from getting the optimal lineup in 2026 with Notre Dame and three more west coast schools in Stanford, Washington and Oregon. They want to delay that into the 2030s when ESPN can direct the best ACC programs into the SEC (right now that's North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami; but keep an eye on Louisville).

This was supposed to be a signal which way Oklahoma was going to go. If SoonerTv re-upped with Fox then the B1G, if with ESPN then the SEC. But the SEC moved way early, before the SoonerTV even came up for it's last three years. But anyway, here's the very anticlimactic official news.

There’s little chance any P2 hopeful school is agreeing to be locked up until 2030s. The brand decay risk is huge. And less likely espn spends $400 million on Pac10 without LA. Who are they bidding against for PAC only? Not Fox or OTA. Likely not what ESPN wants either. If Pac schools want to delay conference death that badly, they’ll have to be willing to take a big discount. Saving the conference at their own peril. They’ll have better offers from multiple bidders to leave.

If espn is looking to burn cash, they’ll gain more by using it for more consolidation. Both to SEC and between the three leftover conferences. Why spend $400 million on PAC when you only want 5-7 schools? That’s more inventory than needed for late games. Move ACC to SEC and then backfill with PAC and Big 12.
(This post was last modified: 08-11-2022 06:21 AM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-11-2022 06:20 AM
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CardFan1 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-11-2022 06:20 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-11-2022 02:45 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  My take on the proxy war is ESPN will fight a delaying action, use their remaining ESPN and ESPN+ budget to lock down the Pac-12 into the 2030s, even if it requires a $400M plus offer. I think they will also out bid NBC for Notre Dame, actually pay them closer to the $75M they want to stay Independent. The idea is keep Fox from getting the optimal lineup in 2026 with Notre Dame and three more west coast schools in Stanford, Washington and Oregon. They want to delay that into the 2030s when ESPN can direct the best ACC programs into the SEC (right now that's North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami; but keep an eye on Louisville).

This was supposed to be a signal which way Oklahoma was going to go. If SoonerTv re-upped with Fox then the B1G, if with ESPN then the SEC. But the SEC moved way early, before the SoonerTV even came up for it's last three years. But anyway, here's the very anticlimactic official news.

There’s little chance any P2 hopeful school is agreeing to be locked up until 2030s. The brand decay risk is huge. And less likely espn spends $400 million on Pac10 without LA. Who are they bidding against for PAC only? Not Fox or OTA. Likely not what ESPN wants either. If Pac schools want to delay conference death that badly, they’ll have to be willing to take a big discount. Saving the conference at their own peril. They’ll have better offers from multiple bidders to leave.

If espn is looking to burn cash, they’ll gain more by using it for more consolidation. Both to SEC and between the three leftover conferences. Why spend $400 million on PAC when you only want 5-7 schools? That’s more inventory than needed for late games. Move ACC to SEC and then backfill with PAC and Big 12.
I truly believe that consolidation of the conferences is the future business module . Money is getting shorter with inflation and travel expenses. . Merging the SEC,ACC, makes sense as does merging the PAC and BigXII after the B1G invites the schools from the PAC,BIGXII that meet their needs. With only 3 full conferences to work with it makes scheduling programing games much easier and less costly .
08-11-2022 07:59 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Network proxy wars
I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2022 12:25 PM by JRsec.)
08-12-2022 12:20 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.
08-12-2022 12:31 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2022 01:04 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-12-2022 12:51 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 12:51 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.

That's okay. I was doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

It does illustrate 2 things, however.

1. All key brands have to move to one of the super 2 which will likely be 24 schools.

2. The composite conference has to be football centric to hold and merit a competitive payout.

I hear all the time from commissioners that the additions must ad value. So far this is merely a hollow excuse not to pick too quickly. I believe in the end all PAC AAU schools will likely wind up in the B1G or perhaps 1 or 2 in the SEC. And I believe the SEC will wind up with 6 or 7 ACC schools, and it could even be 8. What some existing members opt to do in the future could play a hand.

If we stop at 20 there won't be enough inventory. And key schools left behind would sue, IMO. At 24 each you cover most. At 28 each you just about cover all. But at 28 you run the risk of killing value in the composite conference which is necessary to the transition. It's Goldilocks situation in that they have to find the mix that is just right for it to work well.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2022 06:39 PM by JRsec.)
08-12-2022 01:51 PM
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NotoriousOne Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:51 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.

That's okay. I doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

It does illustrate 2 things, however.

1. All key brands have to move to one of the super 2 which will likely be 24 schools.

2. The composite conference has to be football centric to hold and merit a competitive payout.

I hear all the time from commissioners that the additions must ad value. So far this is merely a hollow excuse not to pick too quickly. I believe in the end all PAC AAU schools will likely wind up in the B1G or perhaps 1 or 2 in the SEC. And I believe the SEC will wind up with 6 or 7 ACC schools, and it could even be 8. What some existing members opt to do in the future could play a hand.

If we stop at 20 there won't be enough inventory. And key schools left behind would sue, IMO. At 24 each you cover most. At 28 each you just about cover all. But at 28 you run the risk of killing value in the composite conference which is necessary to the transition. It's Goldilocks situation in that they have to find the mix that is just right for it to work well.

I agree with you completely on this JR. I am still trying to wrap my head around 24, 28 or even 32 due to all the reasons you mention and I don’t think there really is a proxy war here. The BIG and SEC need each other and ND.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2022 02:01 PM by NotoriousOne.)
08-12-2022 02:00 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  That's okay. I doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

You're always one step ahead, aren't you?!
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2022 02:15 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-12-2022 02:07 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-11-2022 06:20 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-11-2022 02:45 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  My take on the proxy war is ESPN will fight a delaying action, use their remaining ESPN and ESPN+ budget to lock down the Pac-12 into the 2030s, even if it requires a $400M plus offer. I think they will also out bid NBC for Notre Dame, actually pay them closer to the $75M they want to stay Independent. The idea is keep Fox from getting the optimal lineup in 2026 with Notre Dame and three more west coast schools in Stanford, Washington and Oregon. They want to delay that into the 2030s when ESPN can direct the best ACC programs into the SEC (right now that's North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami; but keep an eye on Louisville).

This was supposed to be a signal which way Oklahoma was going to go. If SoonerTv re-upped with Fox then the B1G, if with ESPN then the SEC. But the SEC moved way early, before the SoonerTV even came up for it's last three years. But anyway, here's the very anticlimactic official news.

There’s little chance any P2 hopeful school is agreeing to be locked up until 2030s. The brand decay risk is huge. And less likely espn spends $400 million on Pac10 without LA. Who are they bidding against for PAC only? Not Fox or OTA. Likely not what ESPN wants either. If Pac schools want to delay conference death that badly, they’ll have to be willing to take a big discount. Saving the conference at their own peril. They’ll have better offers from multiple bidders to leave.

If espn is looking to burn cash, they’ll gain more by using it for more consolidation. Both to SEC and between the three leftover conferences. Why spend $400 million on PAC when you only want 5-7 schools? That’s more inventory than needed for late games. Move ACC to SEC and then backfill with PAC and Big 12.

ESPN wants every school, but there's a value to each one of them. And their collective value is a lot closer to $25m than it is to $35 or $40m. So, they'll offer the Pac what they think it's worth, in the absence of a bidding war or higher offers elsewhere, the Pac will take the offer, or their teams will split up and ESPN will still get them b/c they'll also have whatever conference the teams run off to. All of the big players other than Amazon and ESPN shot their loads, perhaps NBC has enough powder left to keep ND, but I predict that both the Pac and nbig12 aren't going to see any kind of bidding war driving up their rights fees this cycle. If either or both get to $30m per school they would have to consider that a win.
08-12-2022 02:22 PM
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Post: #13
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:51 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.

That's okay. I doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

It does illustrate 2 things, however.

1. All key brands have to move to one of the super 2 which will likely be 24 schools.

2. The composite conference has to be football centric to hold and merit a competitive payout.

I hear all the time from commissioners that the additions must ad value. So far this is merely a hollow excuse not to pick too quickly. I believe in the end all PAC AAU schools will likely wind up in the B1G or perhaps 1 or 2 in the SEC. And I believe the SEC will wind up with 6 or 7 ACC schools, and it could even be 8. What some existing members opt to do in the future could play a hand.

If we stop at 20 there won't be enough inventory. And key schools left behind would sue, IMO. At 24 each you cover most. At 28 each you just about cover all. But at 28 you run the risk of killing value in the composite conference which is necessary to the transition. It's Goldilocks situation in that they have to find the mix that is just right for it to work well.

When I read your posts like this, I get excited and think "yeah, that's how it should happen!". But when I sit back and think about all of the things that need to happen, the long-term planning, short-term pain that many schools have to take to reach this long-term goal, it feels kind of like the look in period that the ACC has right now. It could happen, and might even be probable, in the absence of existing contracts/relationships/rivalries/etc, but with so many interests lined up against it and a very long timeline for potential repercussions even if they fail to get it done now, I think that it will be hard to actually get there.
08-12-2022 02:29 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Network proxy wars
If I’m a middle class ACC school, I think I would be highly cognizant that my security has an expectation date and that date is in the mid 2030s. My best chance at getting out is now, in a brokered deal with the schools who have the the profiles to get picked up by the P2, rather than waiting until that GOR expires and the P2 can raid with impunity.
08-12-2022 02:36 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 02:07 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:51 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.

That's okay. I doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

It does illustrate 2 things, however.

1. All key brands have to move to one of the super 2 which will likely be 24 schools.

2. The composite conference has to be football centric to hold and merit a competitive payout.

I hear all the time from commissioners that the additions must ad value. So far this is merely a hollow excuse not to pick too quickly. I believe in the end all PAC AAU schools will likely wind up in the B1G or perhaps 1 or 2 in the SEC. And I believe the SEC will wind up with 6 or 7 ACC schools, and it could even be 8. What some existing members opt to do in the future could play a hand.

If we stop at 20 there won't be enough inventory. And key schools left behind would sue, IMO. At 24 each you cover most. At 28 each you just about cover all. But at 28 you run the risk of killing value in the composite conference which is necessary to the transition. It's Goldilocks situation in that they have to find the mix that is just right for it to work well.

You're always one step ahead, aren't you?!

Here is what must happen to get the new upper division, the expanded CFP, and the breakaway from the NCAA for hoops as well. And you could say it has to happen for any major shift in any industry.

1. You have to sell the decision makers on a substantial revenue potential. Expanded playoffs does that.

2. You have to educate them about risks and strategies to overcome them. This has been accomplished or the mantra would not be "Super 2", "the pull of two powerful spheres" etc. All ADs on the same page about what will happen. They just aren't on board yet with who, and how many.

3. The process needs to be slow enough to let the consumer get his/her head around it. We are doing that now. I don't really think we need to limit moves to 2 at a time as much as we can't overwhelm the public, which has been in the midst of massive change covering an array of issues, and then slam them with massive change in one of their escapes. To this end NIL and Pay for Play already resonates with enough fans that they realize moving for large revenue gains is essential and reasonable. And finally, most fans understand why heavily subsidized programs can't and shouldn't make this jump.

4. No matter how careful ESPN and FOX are inclusion for large self-funded State programs will be the issue they will err on intentionally because they need political approval, not necessarily backing to make this work smoothly.

Therefore, I don't think the composite conference goes away.

5. This ESPN demur with regard to Big 10 rights actually signals to me that FOX and ESPN have likely agreed on much of the division and that each of their 2 proxies will have input as well. I think N.D. is a Kabuki dance designed to distract from the final moves and will in the end will be used as a justification for the outcome which will actually be employed for reasons not yet obvious to us. The Big Ten's 3 network arrangement circumvents collusion claims.

Therefore, we will just watch the drama unfold on schedule to allow for emotional blow and then acceptance when bylines explaining things after the fact sanitize and rationalize the events. I wouldn't be surprised if in the end N.D. claims independence but has a scheduling arrangement with all 3 conferences.

People will be tutored on why they need to buy in. Controversy will make the curious spike initial ratings. The planners will point to those numbers and say, "See, we were right!" And the hype will give way to the games.
08-12-2022 02:37 PM
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PAW79 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

From this Clemson fan's perspective, all I can say is please don't let this happen! Being stuck in this franken conference and surrounded by SEC schools would be awful as I can see recruiting taking a nose dive. JR says this might "make the whole of college football interesting to the general public" but unfortunately, it does nothing to improve the "interest level" for Clemson fans and we would still be earning considerably less then our SEC counterparts. It would also really stink to see football "stalwarts" such as UNC, Duke, and UVA get a golden ticket to a conference that actually gives a hoot about football. I personally would much prefer to be "one of the pack" in the SEC than to be a "bell cow" for this fabricated conference.
08-12-2022 04:15 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 02:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:51 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:31 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

Since you had 2 schools drop football, why not let FSU and Clemson make the move too? Just replace them with USF and Memphis.

Correct. The previous scenario (by JR, though I appreciate his creativity) would be an absolute hard pass from me as a FSU fan. I'd be done with the game. The only way I'd even consider it would be if FSU got a major sweetheart deal that put them on par with SEC $. Not a nickel less and I'd still be on the bubble . I wouldn't waste my time on a mish-mosh league that wasn't a true P2 where FSU was trying to fight it out against 3 other FL schools while UF was sitting rich and pretty in the SEC.

That's okay. I doing a little contrarian selling of why the 24-school model is necessary. I get a lot of pushbacks from those who cannot grasp the value of a closed upper tier, or the fact that the whole can have more value, indeed much more value, than the mere sum of the parts, and that 24 represents an inventory objective, possibly a minimum, of the networks which will cobble market reaches and brands into a group which accomplishes each conferences regional objectives. I also believe regions will be upheld for the sake of the natural national rivalry between North and South and to keep local rivalries to strengthen each conference.

It does illustrate 2 things, however.

1. All key brands have to move to one of the super 2 which will likely be 24 schools.

2. The composite conference has to be football centric to hold and merit a competitive payout.

I hear all the time from commissioners that the additions must ad value. So far this is merely a hollow excuse not to pick too quickly. I believe in the end all PAC AAU schools will likely wind up in the B1G or perhaps 1 or 2 in the SEC. And I believe the SEC will wind up with 6 or 7 ACC schools, and it could even be 8. What some existing members opt to do in the future could play a hand.

If we stop at 20 there won't be enough inventory. And key schools left behind would sue, IMO. At 24 each you cover most. At 28 each you just about cover all. But at 28 you run the risk of killing value in the composite conference which is necessary to the transition. It's Goldilocks situation in that they have to find the mix that is just right for it to work well.

When I read your posts like this, I get excited and think "yeah, that's how it should happen!". But when I sit back and think about all of the things that need to happen, the long-term planning, short-term pain that many schools have to take to reach this long-term goal, it feels kind of like the look in period that the ACC has right now. It could happen, and might even be probable, in the absence of existing contracts/relationships/rivalries/etc, but with so many interests lined up against it and a very long timeline for potential repercussions even if they fail to get it done now, I think that it will be hard to actually get there.

It's not hard at all when those who pay the schools are the only ones who need to come to a consensus. The rest is only a matter of monetary leverage. They know what the provisions are in each contract, including GOR's, they have the legal teams to handle it all.

Look how far down the road we are already. We have 2 conferences crafted to justify disproportionately large payouts and the other 3 labor to stay in sight. It's not an accident. The development of 2 super conferences in one league is already within grasp. How the moves are made (meaning in what order) will dictate the final form.

The function is a highly marketable contained system with an expanded playoff to maximize revenue and drive interest among the non-avid college football fans (aka, the untapped market). The Form is a closed upper tier. Form always follows function.
08-12-2022 04:33 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 02:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If I’m a middle class ACC school, I think I would be highly cognizant that my security has an expectation date and that date is in the mid 2030s. My best chance at getting out is now, in a brokered deal with the schools who have the the profiles to get picked up by the P2, rather than waiting until that GOR expires and the P2 can raid with impunity.

A middle class ACC school, by which I'm assuming you mean "no chance at getting into P2", isn't going to get more money for the next 14 years by preemptively leaving now, even if they could somehow get around the GoR. 14 years is long enough that probably every coach, AD, and University President in place now will be gone. It's important to plan for the future, but there is really no way to know how things will look in 2036.

I'd be more in the mindset of "let's see what happens and be prepared to move quickly if the need/opportunity arises". You know, back channel feelers to all other p5 conferences, off the record conversations with individual schools both in and out of conference, etc etc. But if their GoR does somehow get broken, it won't be by a middle tier school with little to gain in the short or medium term by doing so.
08-12-2022 05:20 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 04:15 PM)PAW79 Wrote:  
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

From this Clemson fan's perspective, all I can say is please don't let this happen! Being stuck in this franken conference and surrounded by SEC schools would be awful as I can see recruiting taking a nose dive. JR says this might "make the whole of college football interesting to the general public" but unfortunately, it does nothing to improve the "interest level" for Clemson fans and we would still be earning considerably less then our SEC counterparts. It would also really stink to see football "stalwarts" such as UNC, Duke, and UVA get a golden ticket to a conference that actually gives a hoot about football. I personally would much prefer to be "one of the pack" in the SEC than to be a "bell cow" for this fabricated conference.

2 titles in the past decade, and another in 81, is better than every SEC school except Bama and LSU. Probably better than LSU tbh, they only have 2.5 titles and 2 of those were 15+ years ago. FSU, OU and Nebraska have also won more titles than any SEC team other than Bama in that time. I'd love to have you guys in the SEC, but if there is any way to figure out the money situation then you will probably win more titles from the ACC.
08-12-2022 05:29 PM
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PAW79 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Network proxy wars
(08-12-2022 12:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'll return to a strategy I first mentioned a year ago. And will tweak it just a little.

How does ESPN grow the SEC's value without destroying completely a competitive balanced needed to make the whole of college football interesting to the general public?

How does ESPN grow the value of the ACC without angering Tobacco Road?

How does ESPN keep a monopoly on advertising in Texas, which is quite different from simply having the State's best "competitive" rate?

I believe the answer is simple in theory.

Remove Tobacco Road from the ACC.

Place Duke, North Carolina and Virginia in the SEC.

Wake Forest and Vanderbilt become the SEC's first all but football members.

Add Kansas to the SEC West.

This builds basketball branding to match football branding. It adds 4 AAU schools helping the conference academic profile. It balances a top-heavy football conference, and adds 3 new States to the footprint establishing a centralized conference map.

The ACC loses 4 schools, one on the weak end but historically important to Duke and UNC, and 3 basketball first schools.

ESPN does not want to lose a toehold in New England and helping Pitt and Cuse re-emerge as football playing hoops brands is important.

Keep ND independent but obliged to the ESPN family of rights and not just a conference.

Add to the now 10 member ACC the following:

Central Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Houston, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Baylor, Central Florida, Florida State, Houston, Miami

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


Out West ESPN could help the PAC remnants of Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to build a new conference.


With something like this ESPN essentially fronts the 4 headed to the SEC at pro rata for T1 and T2 revenue and makes a profit on T3 by adding 3 states and 23 million to the SECN footprint. Essentially $30 million more each for the 4 schools (counting the additional T3 against the cost of the T1& 2 pro rata) makes the added cost 120 million a year.

In the ACC the football cachet blossoms. FSU and Clemson are the new bell cows. ACC schools are now looking at 50-60 million.

Rivalries are preserved and restored and all of it is in house, save for the PAC schools which could at least be partially assimilated if need be. Monopolies over the region are maintained.

After thinking about this some more ......... if I were Clemson and had an inkling that something like this franken conference was being seriously discussed, I would quickly contact FSU, Ga Tech, NCSU, Va Tech, and Pitt/Miami to see if they were interested in offering themselves to the BIG as a package deal. Academics (AAU status) not withstanding, you would think that the BIG would have interest as it would get them into 5 new southern states as well as provide interesting new content. You would also think that the FOX/NBC/CBS collective would be very interested in breaking ESPN's strangle hold on the deep South. These six schools would almost certainly be interested from a financial perspective and it would make for a nice compact grouping within the BIG. With four schools (UNC, UVA, Duke, and WF) going to the SEC, that would make 10 ACC schools wanting to move - maybe enough to break the GOR. I am certainly no fan of the BIG and I have no idea how feasible this would be but from a Clemson perspective, this would be far preferable to this franken conference and certainly much more lucrative financially.
08-12-2022 06:21 PM
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