JRsec
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RE: What if Espn facilitated a trade between the ACC and the SEC?
(08-14-2022 11:46 AM)curtis0620 Wrote: (08-14-2022 10:41 AM)JRsec Wrote: (08-13-2022 08:07 PM)XOVERX Wrote: Because I would like to see the SEC compete head-to-head with the B1G across all time slots going into the future, at least occasionally, I am hoping ESPN in fact does see value in Denver and the State of Colorado. If CU applied for SEC membership, I agree with others that Kansas would be a good SEC addition as well, mainly because of their basketball lineage and continued prowess, but the geography would be convenient to pair with Colorado as well. Both schools also happen to be decent academic institutions and that is a small plus, too. CU and KU seem like longshot additions to the SEC, but I note that at least one poster, on multiple sites, gives serious consideration to the potential additions of CU and KU to the SEC, particularly as a possible response to the B1G if the B1G goes to 18. If it happened, CU and KU would put the SEC at 18.
For the SEC to go beyond 18, and assuming key ACC schools are demonstrably additive to the SEC, there does not seem to be a viable path to further SEC expansion other than tearing out the heart of the ACC, right? And who knows when that happens? But if the ACC does someday unravel, and if various ACC schools are also additive to the B1G, does anyone expect the B1G to be passive observers?
I think most of us agree that FSU, Clemson, and Miami are the premier football brands in the ACC; however, I doubt the B1G, due its pompous academic insistence, will vigorously contest FSU and Clemson with the SEC, Warren's recent comments about AAU membership notwithstanding. I could be wrong about this, but I expect the B1G to follow their historical path of expansion, which is to focus on AAU schools as much as possible, and which, in the case of the ACC, means UNC, UVA, GT, Duke, and, in order to enter Florida, possibly non-AAU FSU, but, IMO, more likely a non-AAU Miami. Furthermore, if the B1G adds UNC and UVA, I see no realistic chance that the B1G also adds a non-AAU NCSU or non-AAU VPI, do you? NCSU and VPI are almost certainly easy gets for the SEC, don't you think? FSU and Clemson put the SEC at 20.
After FSU and Clemson are gone, I think the SEC and B1G compete for the remaining value schools left in the ACC. Unlike some posters, I cannot imagine the SEC going void in the States of North Carolina and Virginia. I cannot imagine ESPN advising the SEC to go void in NC and VA. Pick any two from the States of VA and NC. Now the SEC at 22.
That leaves 2 to get to a 24-school SEC.
Does the SEC go "defensive", as some assert it will, taking GT and Miami? Maybe. I would not agree with such a move, but it might happen. Would the SEC become enticed to take more than 1 school from NC and/or VA in order to add UNC or UVA (another "defensive" move)? Maybe. Maybe, for example, the SEC might have to take Duke or NCSU in order to persuade UNC? As another scenario, rather than tripling up in FL and/or doubling up in GA, as some suggest, might the SEC take some northern schools in B1G country like Pitt or Syracuse, maybe Louisville? I doubt it, but maybe. The SEC in PA and NY would certainly vex the B1G, I imagine, and give the SEC a broader, more national appeal, especially running up the NE Corridor (to the horror of the B1G). I know Texas would love to play league games in the States of New York and Pennsylvania.
My wish list du jour for SEC expansion is: CU, KU, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Pitt, and Syracuse. This list creates ill-will among some of the more fanatical SEC old-timers, but oh well, I think it's a helluva lineup, capable of raising all SEC boats. I have no clue what ESPN might think, however. Maybe going past 16 or 20 is a mistake?
Which brings us full circle. Are CU and KU really in the running for SEC membership? It seems the only way CU and KU could possibly happen is for the B1G to eat more of the PAC, certainly a possibility (but less probable if ND stays ACC). Hurry up and wait on the B1G seems to be the current status of SEC expansion. OTOH, there's not much stopping CU and KU right now ... .
1. Reasons for the ESPN/SEC to consider adding Colorado and Kansas:
2 New markets (1 largish / 1 not).
#2 hoops brand in Kansas which is Missouri's chief rival.
Colorado is a familiar face for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri giving each fan base 3 games with an old home feel which creates stability and synergy for the 4 former Big 8 schools.
Texas and Colorado have some synergy and now the SEC is in the MTZ.
Issues with such a move: They aren't Southeastern or Southwestern but do have some ties. Culture is not really a match. Competitiveness is lacking, but with a SE/SW pipeline for recruits and SEC money that could change for the better.
2. Only the value of the whole matters, and then only to the network which is ESPN in this case. At over 80 million with a reasonable escalation to 100 million per school only the network has to worry about value and their estimations will be made upon a completed product which covers the markets and branding they desire included.
This is new. Individual accretive properties based upon how much is needed to move the needle on conference revenue is not applicable to the network. What they want in their completed league is.
3. As long as ESPN holds the rights to the ACC the Big 10 will be passive observers unless ESPN has a reason for them not to be. Since ESPN no longer has a stake in the B1G it is no longer in ESPN's self-interest to do anything which enhances the Big 10's value. There is every reason for them to do so for the SEC. And if/when the time comes for the ACC to be broken you can bet ESPN will have already sheltered what it wants to keep in the SEC or possibly a composite conference prior to the announcement of the breakup, which means if it happens it happens well before the grant of rights ends. And Xoverex I cannot see ESPN letting UNC go. Virginia? Yes as they are inconsequential to ESPN objectives. But ESPN won't cede Atlanta or Miami market control to FOX. Nor will they cede UNC's singular dominance in a state of 10 million plus, or Virginia Tech's better numbers in Virginia.
Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, UNC and Va Tech would be the six to 24 and the SEC wouldn't disagree with ESPN on any of them.
So, if the move is Kansas and Colorado to 18, the best remaining 6 to 24 are those.
The obligatory grouping:
Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami
Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Then the Big Ten would counter with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, Virginia, Pitt & Notre Dame
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Good, then maybe we could stop!
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