(08-09-2022 01:33 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:07 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Just humor me. The B1G is done expanding. No new additions until the ACC GOR nears its end. Accept that premise. Based on that premise, what happens next?

Now humor me :)

The B1G isn't done expanding. UW, UO, Cal and Stanford follow USC and UCLA's path. Based on that premise, what happens next?

The Utes, Buffs, Sun Devils and Wildcats hook up with the B1G XII schools.

Wazzu and OSU either ride the coattails of the Four Corners 4 or hitch their wagons to the Mountain West schools

I agree, except OSU and WSU have no way of getting into the Big 12. They go to the MWC. Otherwise, this is the end game and expansion is put to bed until next decade.

(08-09-2022 01:38 PM)otown Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:33 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:07 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Just humor me. The B1G is done expanding. No new additions until the ACC GOR nears its end. Accept that premise. Based on that premise, what happens next?

Now humor me :)

The B1G isn't done expanding. UW, UO, Cal and Stanford follow USC and UCLA's path. Based on that premise, what happens next?

The Utes, Buffs, Sun Devils and Wildcats hook up with the B1G XII schools.

Wazzu and OSU either ride the coattails of the Four Corners 4 or hitch their wagons to the Mountain West schools

I agree, except OSU and WSU have no way of getting into the Big 12. They go to the MWC. Otherwise, this is the end game and expansion is put to bed until next decade.

The B1G may be done, but it will be interesting to see. Critically, once these new TV contracts are finalized, any further expansion will require those contracts to be reopened. At that point, any further additions will have their payout capped at the additional value they can bring to the contract. Waiting to add the additional schools until after the contracts are finalized will thereby allow the B1G to force any additional schools to take a reduced payout.

Waiting to add more schools also lets Notre Dame see how the B1G TV contracts end up. If its own negotiations don't go as well as expected, the B1G may believe it could be teased into joining the B1G with 1-3 west coast schools. ND, obviously, will not have to take a reduced payout.

(08-09-2022 01:47 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The B1G may be done, but it will be interesting to see. Critically, once these new TV contracts are finalized, any further expansion will require those contracts to be reopened. At that point, any further additions will have their payout capped at the additional value they can bring to the contract. Waiting to add the additional schools until after the contracts are finalized will thereby allow the B1G to force any additional schools to take a reduced payout.

Waiting to add more schools also lets Notre Dame see how the B1G TV contracts end up. If its own negotiations don't go as well as expected, the B1G may believe it could be teased into joining the B1G with 1-3 west coast schools. ND, obviously, will not have to take a reduced payout.

there could be built in clause for expansion in the negotiated deals. after all the B1G invitations won't be turned down

(08-09-2022 01:33 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:07 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Just humor me. The B1G is done expanding. No new additions until the ACC GOR nears its end. Accept that premise. Based on that premise, what happens next?

Now humor me :)

The B1G isn't done expanding. UW, UO, Cal and Stanford follow USC and UCLA's path. Based on that premise, what happens next?

The Utes, Buffs, Sun Devils and Wildcats hook up with the B1G XII schools.

Wazzu and OSU either ride the coattails of the Four Corners 4 or hitch their wagons to the Mountain West schools

I agree with you that likely happens if all 4 of those teams go to B1G now. But I think no more than 2 invitations go out now, so let’s say Stanford & UO are gone. Will the 4 corners still leave if payouts are still same level as B12?

Would the possibility of a merger now be back on the table so that no team is at risk of being left out?

People aren’t very good at running a hypothetical. There’s zero debate in what happens if the B1G takes 4 more PAC schools.

If they don’t the prospects become more uncertain/interesting.

(08-09-2022 01:30 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:07 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Just humor me. The B1G is done expanding. No new additions until the ACC GOR nears its end. Accept that premise. Based on that premise, what happens next?

I still think the odds are greater that we get an expanded middle class in which all 3 of ACC/ B12/ PAC eventually expand than there being a chance of consolidation between the 3.

I don’t buy this. There is no case for expansion that doesn’t lower the per school revenue. There is no merging of conferences that doesn’t just transfer over the same economies of the pre-existing conferences. Neither of these options are better than just staying put.

The only scenario that increases revenue is to start consolidating. The only conference that can be consolidated at the moment is the PAC.

(08-09-2022 03:21 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t buy this. There is no case for expansion that doesn’t lower the per school revenue. There is no merging of conferences that doesn’t just transfer over the same economies of the pre-existing conferences. Neither of these options are better than just staying put.

The only scenario that increases revenue is to start consolidating. The only conference that can be consolidated at the moment is the PAC.

The revenue would be matched. But to kick start let's say a B1G20, those PAC4 schools probably have to come in at 2/3 shares. Otherwise, you can use the same argument for any other pair of schools that doesn't include ND.

The Big 12 probably can't pay 4 corners unless the neo12 payout is (I haven't done the match) 5-10 million higher per school than the PAC10. They need 40-50 million range and even then, they are only looking at AU and CO to come out ahead.

I'm not saying Utah would be left out. ESPN will probably pay the difference if they acquire the Big 12. Whether they are paying a Big 16 or an ACC 16-20, nobody is likely to receive a pay cut at this stage. Perhaps in the short term depending on how the TV deal is structured, but the revenue will probably scale towards the tail end.

(08-09-2022 03:21 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:30 PM)hk25 Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 01:07 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Just humor me. The B1G is done expanding. No new additions until the ACC GOR nears its end. Accept that premise. Based on that premise, what happens next?

I still think the odds are greater that we get an expanded middle class in which all 3 of ACC/ B12/ PAC eventually expand than there being a chance of consolidation between the 3.

I don’t buy this. There is no case for expansion that doesn’t lower the per school revenue. There is no merging of conferences that doesn’t just transfer over the same economies of the pre-existing conferences. Neither of these options are better than just staying put.

The only scenario that increases revenue is to start consolidating. The only conference that can be consolidated at the moment is the PAC.

Assuming you are a Utah fan. Are you saying Utah is the same value today they were a decade ago or so when they joined the PAC? I think Utah’s value has grown by being in the PAC & would not have grown if they were not added. The same would very likely happen to the value of the top 10 (I am still including the B12 adds in this 10) or so current G5’s over time if they had a better conference affiliation & schedule.

Expansion doesn’t have to lower existing schools revenue if joining teams come in at their joining value. By the next contract window the expectation is they will be at same value of their conference mates, some will, some won’t, & some will exceed them….much like Utah now exceeds some of the legacy PAC members…..at least that’s my believe.