(08-09-2022 11:50 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 10:56 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Some schools have 14 years (really more like 8-10 years) to kick it into high gear or they will be left behind. I believe we have ACC schools that will safely land in the B1G or SEC, schools that are very much unsafe, and schools that have an okay chance:

Very Safe: Clemson, Florida St, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia

Maybe Safe: Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Not Safe: Boston College, Wake Forest

I think that list seems to be the general consensus.

If you want to be more granular and include non-ACC schools:
1) FSU, ND, UNC, UVA
2) Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Miami
3) Duke, Stanford, Cal, GT, VT, NC State
4) Louisville, Pittsburg, Syracuse, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, Kansas
5) Everyone else.

If the P2 cuts off at 20 each then groups 1&2 are in. If the P2 goes to 24 each, then it’s group 3 plus two of group 4. Group 4 is the nucleus of the “Best Of” rump conference.

This presumes that the B1G doesn’t raid the SEC and that the B1G and SEC expand symmetrically. At least one of those assumptions will be wrong. Also, the ACC GoR and ND’s ACC deal mean none of this happens for about another decade.

The main question is why. Besides the legal ramifications of any such move, what's the motive for NBC or Fox? The possibility that some of the schools MIGHT migrate to the Big 10? As I've stated previously, I think the number of schools either the Big 10 or SEC really want is smaller than most posters think. But you also have to deal with the fact some might choose the SEC over the Big 10. Which does not help NBC or Fox. And even if the Big 10 does gain some schools, Fox/NBS will likely have to pay for it. And frankly I think they have plenty good content as is. I'm not sure the marginal benefit of adding yet another school or schools.

(08-09-2022 10:56 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 10:32 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 09:59 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  The rights are granted to the conference. The conference is its own entity and had its own interests. ESPN has to work with the conference, not the individual schools in any amendment to the GOR.

The individual schools constitute the board of directors of the conference, and there’s hardly any change to the GOR that would be acceptable to all schools. The ACC’s bylaws are also completely under wraps, so no one knows what proportion of schools would have to vote to steer the conference in its negotiating a release from the GOR with ESPN.

Legally, this kind of thing would be super sticky.

Yes - as a lawyer, pretty much every post about a supposed way to get out of the GOR (outside of the defecting school(s) paying a LOT of money) is like nails on a chalkboard. I feel like the medical professionals that have had to deal with Internet idiots over the past couple of years that believe Joe Rogan more than actual educated people with credentials and experience.

I know that the world seems to love conspiracy theories these days, but the fact that ESPN has both the SEC and ACC rights is a complete and total red herring with respect to the ACC GOR. It absolutely doesn't matter. The ACC is the beneficiary of the GOR, *NOT* ESPN. Wake Forest and every other ACC school that doesn't get into either the Big Ten or SEC would have to willingly sign its death warrant as a power school in order to release other ACC members from the GOR obligations.

Even for those that just believe that "contract disputes get solved by money all of the time" are being totally flippant about it. The *scale* of the money involved to realistically get the ACC to release their GOR obligations 14 years early is still being underestimated. The only way that I could even conceivably see that Wake Forest and all of the other left behind ACC schools to be willingly signing their death warrants as power schools is to receive a Big Ten/SEC-level of money from ESPN for the next 14 years... which makes absolutely no sense for ESPN.

If you're to believe the latest report from John Ourand, it looks like ESPN isn't getting the Big Ten rights because they weren't willing to pay $30 million more per year than what CBS is about to pay. Essentially, it would have cost $30 million per year for ESPN to avoid creating another major college football TV network competitor, but they're not willing to pay that simple amount.

Yet, people believe that ESPN is going to pay literally hundreds of millions of dollars (possibly on the order of over a billion dollars if we're talking about anything more than 2 schools) to move ACC schools on a super cheap locked-in contract for the next 14 years to a much more expensive SEC contract AND pay the ACC schools left behind MORE to entice such trades???!!!

This isn't a legal issue. The problem is that all of these ACC-to-SEC trades via ESPN strain all sense of financial credulity.

Some schools have 14 years (really more like 8-10 years) to kick it into high gear or they will be left behind. I believe we have ACC schools that will safely land in the B1G or SEC, schools that are very much unsafe, and schools that have an okay chance:

Very Safe: Clemson, Florida St, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia

Maybe Safe: Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Not Safe: Boston College, Wake Forest

Left behind what though? Yes, the Big 10 and SEC are going to make a lot more money than everyone else. That is true. But most of the ACC schools aren't going to get an SEC or BIG 10 invite anyway. So it's kind of moot. The few schools that would get such an invite do miss out on the money, at least for now. But what does that get them? Or prevents them from having? You make it sounds like their is some bus leaving the station this second and either you get on now or never get on ever. And the future of college sports means only 32 schools matter and the rest can just die. And I don't think that matches with reality.

(08-08-2022 03:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats asking for an ESPN law suit....worse yet, its asking for an ESPN law suit (who would also be joined by all the left behind teams) that "ESPN & the left behinds" would almost certainly win.

Lol. I bet Blumenthal thought the same thing when he sued the ACC for UConn.

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(08-09-2022 12:34 PM)Jericho Wrote:  The main question is why. Besides the legal ramifications of any such move, what's the motive for NBC or Fox? The possibility that some of the schools MIGHT migrate to the Big 10? As I've stated previously, I think the number of schools either the Big 10 or SEC really want is smaller than most posters think. But you also have to deal with the fact some might choose the SEC over the Big 10. Which does not help NBC or Fox. And even if the Big 10 does gain some schools, Fox/NBS will likely have to pay for it. And frankly I think they have plenty good content as is. I'm not sure the marginal benefit of adding yet another school or schools.

I agree completely with this. The B1G did not take free agent Washington and Oregon. It didn’t happen. What has changed that suddenly makes the B1G reverse course? What is the basis for thinking that ND somehow triggers a cascade that doesn’t make sense without ND? It’s illogical.

The only free agents right now are the PAC schools. B1G is in the 11th hour of finalizing their deal. If the PAC schools are out at that time, they’re out. And that likely doesn’t change until SEC and ACC schools become free agents.