(08-06-2022 12:17 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 12:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe in the viability of economic synergy and the mutual malleability of compromise.

In other words: the will of powerful institutions to get what they want regardless of a signed agreement :)

The question is what does the powerful institution want? Is breaching the agreement in ESPN's economic interest? I don't think anyone but ESPN knows that and they may not have figured that out yet.

The Realignment Paradox: those that know, don't talk; those that talk, don't know.

I think the last section was the most important. Big moves take time.
Realignment rumors get clicks and ad revenue, doesn't have to be true for people to read it and bring traffic to a site

The moves in 2010 and 2011 had noise about the for months before they actually occurred. But the 2020s news have pretty much come out of the sky blue.

(08-06-2022 04:21 PM)Poster Wrote:  The moves in 2010 and 2011 had noise about the for months before they actually occurred. But the 2020s news have pretty much come out of the sky blue.

A&M had a little noise prior to an announcement, but not much. Missouri had quite a bit because the conference felt it had to prepare fans so that they wouldn't reject Missouri outright. Mizzou2SEC had existed for 2 years prior to the move. What got the most noise in 2011 was N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC which Clay Travis and John Pennington (Mr. SEC) pimped rather hard in an effort to pre-sell a bigger deal in the works for ESPN which involved the ACC and the creation of an ACCN. That deal blew up internal the ACC.

Here is what is hard to understand, how dramatically the SEC and Big 10 have separated themselves.
In 2016-17 distributions were as follows:
SEC 40.9
Big 10 36.3
Big 12 34.8
Pac 12 30.9
ACC 26.6

In 2020-21, impacted by the pandemic:
SEC 54.6
Big 10 44.2
Big 12 34.5
Pac 12 19.8
ACC 36.1

But in 2025, its projected to be:
SEC 80s
Big 10 90s
Big 12, Pac 12, ACC 40s.

(08-06-2022 04:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  Here is what is hard to understand, how dramatically the SEC and Big 10 have separated themselves.
In 2016-17 distributions were as follows:
SEC 40.9
Big 10 36.3
Big 12 34.8
Pac 12 30.9
ACC 26.6

In 2020-21, impacted by the pandemic:
SEC 54.6
Big 10 44.2
Big 12 34.5
Pac 12 19.8
ACC 36.1

But in 2025, its projected to be:
SEC 80s
Big 10 90s
Big 12, Pac 12, ACC 40s.

Besides the moving of the best schools from those conferences to P2, I think there’s some picking of the winners going on. It’s not just school valuations, it’s that TINA driving TV rights escalation is nearly exclusively going to the prime windows, and those windows earmarked for P2 inventory.

(08-06-2022 04:51 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  Here is what is hard to understand, how dramatically the SEC and Big 10 have separated themselves.
In 2016-17 distributions were as follows:
SEC 40.9
Big 10 36.3
Big 12 34.8
Pac 12 30.9
ACC 26.6

In 2020-21, impacted by the pandemic:
SEC 54.6
Big 10 44.2
Big 12 34.5
Pac 12 19.8
ACC 36.1

But in 2025, its projected to be:
SEC 80s
Big 10 90s
Big 12, Pac 12, ACC 40s.

Besides the moving of the best schools from those conferences to P2, I think there’s some picking of the winners going on. It’s not just school valuations, it’s that TINA driving TV rights escalation is nearly exclusively going to the prime windows, and those windows earmarked for P2 inventory.

SEC projections go up significantly past 2025 since it is the last year of revenue purported to be sans Texas and Oklahoma (2024-5). 2025-6 will be year one with Texas and Oklahoma officially in.

(08-06-2022 04:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:21 PM)Poster Wrote:  The moves in 2010 and 2011 had noise about the for months before they actually occurred. But the 2020s news have pretty much come out of the sky blue.

A&M had a little noise prior to an announcement, but not much. Missouri had quite a bit because the conference felt it had to prepare fans so that they wouldn't reject Missouri outright. Mizzou2SEC had existed for 2 years prior to the move. What got the most noise in 2011 was N.C. State and Va Tech to the SEC which Clay Travis and John Pennington (Mr. SEC) pimped rather hard in an effort to pre-sell a bigger deal in the works for ESPN which involved the ACC and the creation of an ACCN. That deal blew up internal the ACC.

Virginia Tech was sometimes rumored as a partner to aTm. I don’t remember any rumors about NCSU joining the SEC. (And thank God NCSU wasn’t invited-that would have been an embarrassing expansion just to pretend to have a tv market.)


The Big Ten and PAC expansions in 2010 were about an noisy as could be. The Big Ten announced it might expand on something like December 10, 2009. Then, literally within a day or two, there were all kinds of rumors about teams like Missouri or Pitt joining the conference. Then, about a month later, the rumors about Colorado joining the PAC also began. Then there were rumors about Texas taking 6 teams over to the PAC. I don’t think that Nebraska to the Big Ten rumors began until about April, and that was mostly because Nebraska was scared about the rumors of the PAC-16 forming and Missouri taking the slot in the Big 10.

(08-06-2022 04:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:51 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  Here is what is hard to understand, how dramatically the SEC and Big 10 have separated themselves.
In 2016-17 distributions were as follows:
SEC 40.9
Big 10 36.3
Big 12 34.8
Pac 12 30.9
ACC 26.6

In 2020-21, impacted by the pandemic:
SEC 54.6
Big 10 44.2
Big 12 34.5
Pac 12 19.8
ACC 36.1

But in 2025, its projected to be:
SEC 80s
Big 10 90s
Big 12, Pac 12, ACC 40s.

Besides the moving of the best schools from those conferences to P2, I think there’s some picking of the winners going on. It’s not just school valuations, it’s that TINA driving TV rights escalation is nearly exclusively going to the prime windows, and those windows earmarked for P2 inventory.

SEC projections go up significantly past 2025 since it is the last year of revenue purported to be sans Texas and Oklahoma (2024-5). 2025-6 will be year one with Texas and Oklahoma officially in.

Yes consolidation of brands, but also prime time slots. Consolidation has a double impact that helps explain the extreme growth in revenue differences

The number of brand programs in CFB is not changing. Nor is the number of prime openings on the mediums. On any given Saturday you could generally see some prime matchups filled by all P5s.

Now, with this realignment, it is not just the brands consolidating - the prime showings are going with the brands, so-to-speak, consolidating too. The winners have been picked to degree, awhile ago, and now it is putting them all together. FOX has no interest in putting a leftover PAC game in a good spot over their BIG interests. Same with ESPN and SEC to a degree.

Imo it is a reason why PAC and Big 12 schools benefit from getting to a Big 16/18, getting a different network, then waiting for ACC schools leftovers to be released, over chasing an ESPN bait and switch. Ratings time and again have proven to be largely contextual, a Baylor-OkSt can draw well when meaningful. Say 3-4 million in slot x, but going forward, it will not get picked over a BIG or SEC 3-4 million game, and instead moved to slot y, in which 2 million is good. In reality, this isn't new, just the revenue impacts greater.

We'll know soon if another network is possible based on who got a piece of BIG. The 3rd super conference dream is certainly a 24 school conference in which some T1 is shouldered with independent ND on NBC and some T1 on CBS. BIG will likely grow to make that impossible, especially if they can get ACC schools. If CBS and NBC are both in, being ESPN's 2nd conference and hoping some schools are appeased with unequal revenue/LHN type stuff is likely as good as it gets

(08-06-2022 05:52 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:51 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 04:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  Here is what is hard to understand, how dramatically the SEC and Big 10 have separated themselves.
In 2016-17 distributions were as follows:
SEC 40.9
Big 10 36.3
Big 12 34.8
Pac 12 30.9
ACC 26.6

In 2020-21, impacted by the pandemic:
SEC 54.6
Big 10 44.2
Big 12 34.5
Pac 12 19.8
ACC 36.1

But in 2025, its projected to be:
SEC 80s
Big 10 90s
Big 12, Pac 12, ACC 40s.

Besides the moving of the best schools from those conferences to P2, I think there’s some picking of the winners going on. It’s not just school valuations, it’s that TINA driving TV rights escalation is nearly exclusively going to the prime windows, and those windows earmarked for P2 inventory.

SEC projections go up significantly past 2025 since it is the last year of revenue purported to be sans Texas and Oklahoma (2024-5). 2025-6 will be year one with Texas and Oklahoma officially in.

Yes consolidation of brands, but also prime time slots. Consolidation has a double impact that helps explain the extreme growth in revenue differences

The number of brand programs in CFB is not changing. Nor is the number of prime openings on the mediums. On any given Saturday you could generally see some prime matchups filled by all P5s.

Now, with this realignment, it is not just the brands consolidating - the prime showings are going with the brands, so-to-speak, consolidating too. The winners have been picked to degree, awhile ago, and now it is putting them all together. FOX has no interest in putting a leftover PAC game in a good spot over their BIG interests. Same with ESPN and SEC to a degree.

Imo it is a reason why PAC and Big 12 schools benefit from getting to a Big 16/18, getting a different network, then waiting for ACC schools leftovers to be released, over chasing an ESPN bait and switch. We'll know soon if that is possible based on who got a piece of BIG. If CBS and NBC are both in, ESPN's 2nd conference in a play to get critical mass is likely as good as it gets

All ESPN needs to achieve critical mass is the B12. It leaves the Big Ten and FOX a pyrrhic victory in acquiring the PAC and no entry into richer recruiting areas.