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McMurphy on podcast
https://twitter.com/5thYearPodcast

Podcast with interview of Brett McMurphy

McMurphy interview is first 30-32 minutes.

Says nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them.

Believes ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them.

ND TV deal could take a year before ND has enough info to make a decision.

Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two.

Says Warren's response that whether there will be a P2, P3, P4 or P5 will be decided by the market, means ESPN/Fox/etc. will decide how many power conferences there are.
08-05-2022 03:58 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 03:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://twitter.com/5thYearPodcast

Podcast with interview of Brett McMurphy

McMurphy interview is first 30-32 minutes.

Says nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them.

Believes ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them.

ND TV deal could take a year before ND has enough info to make a decision.

Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two.

Says Warren's response that whether there will be a P2, P3, P4 or P5 will be decided by the market, means ESPN/Fox/etc. will decide how many power conferences there are.

Networks don't know crap on what sells in college sports. Boise State have shown time and time again that in big games, they draw eyeballs. I can't say for the same for schools in Big 10 and SEC.
08-05-2022 04:28 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
The ACC GOR expires in 2036, am I correct?


Texas and OU announced their moves four years before the Big 12 GOR ended. I guess that means ACC teams might announce their departures in 2032.


10 more years for this board to speculate on what will happen.
08-05-2022 05:24 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
He says "nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them".

The proceeds to say:

"ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

"Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two"
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 05:31 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-05-2022 05:30 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  He says "nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them".

The proceeds to say:

"ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

"Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two"

He doesn't know what the Big 10 will do. Neither does the Big 10.
08-05-2022 05:42 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
All ESPN has to do is guarantee a payout that makes The ACC the clear #3, guarantee playoff access and a conference network. Again if ESPN wants to break The ACC GOR guarantee 75 million or so to the teams left behind in The ACC.

It’s all about the money. It’s as simple as that.
08-05-2022 05:48 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  He says "nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them".

The proceeds to say:

"ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

"Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two"



Good catch.

04-cheers
08-05-2022 05:50 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  "ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

In other words, the amount to buy out the GOR and eat the contract is half of what it would be now. The P2 (at 16 or 18) likely will hold spaces for the four best properties of the ACC and go to 20 while the remainders will slog along with diminished expectations and a Pac-12 sized contract.

What could come out of this is a Premier League (Big 10, SEC), a Power 3 (Big 12, Pac-12, ACC), a second group of 3 (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt), and a confederation of the rest (MAC, CUSA)
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 05:54 PM by DFW HOYA.)
08-05-2022 05:52 PM
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Post: #9
RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:48 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  All ESPN has to do is guarantee a payout that makes The ACC the clear #3, guarantee playoff access and a conference network. Again if ESPN wants to break The ACC GOR guarantee 75 million or so to the teams left behind in The ACC.

It’s all about the money. It’s as simple as that.

Why would ESPN want to break the ACC GOR? They have all schools under contract at a below market price until 2036.
08-05-2022 05:58 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:24 PM)Poster Wrote:  The ACC GOR expires in 2036, am I correct?


Texas and OU announced their moves four years before the Big 12 GOR ended. I guess that means ACC teams might announce their departures in 2032.


10 more years for this board to speculate on what will happen.


And if the situation with Oklahoma and Texas are to be learned from, then there'll be another 4 years for sorting things out.


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08-05-2022 06:00 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:50 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  He says "nobody has any clue what college football will look like in 5 years. If they say they do, ignore them".

The proceeds to say:

"ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

"Big 10 is not done and won't be for a year or two"



Good catch.

04-cheers

McMurphy is another one which is right twice a day, ....if somebody remembers to wind him up!

FOX and ESPN know exactly what's happening. They've been manipulating it to this end for the past 11 years. All they are doing is playing Warren and Sankey until they get them to buy the plan, if they haven't already done so.
08-05-2022 06:01 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
The networks have botched it. I don't know what data or algorithms they are using, but it has nothing to do with what is actually taking place on the football field. Believe it or not, Big East football used to make headlines and be front and center on professional sports talk radio some time ago, at least for the big games and not just during peak Schiano years. The fans have gone away... do we just blame demographics for everything?

We need to get back to rivalries and competitive games that count for something. Not Bama blowing out X Y Z team every year en route to the NCG:

They've killed conferences. Regionalized the sport. Torpedoed the Rose Bowl... it's comical what these business analytics guys draw up on their spreadsheets.

1) Get WVU and UC to the ACC... move out FSU/Clemson if the SEC wants them and will pay them and then add UCF.

2) DON'T break up the ACC. As much as I hate the conference, UNC is not a B1G team. Don't kill the basketball for football. Try to make it work with FSU and Clemson and add additional teams without a crazy payout. Pay the big schools on an incentive based pay scale so long as those programs stay in the rules. Agree to third party arbitration between a representative council overseeing NIL/recruitment and individual schools where/when conference bylaws are seemingly transgressed.

3) Form a super conference between the Big 12 and PAC remainders. There are no blue bloods in either conference (especially with additional PAC defections) that no single school stands out to skew the conferences' overall values. Just merge.

4) Don't expand the playoff until we get to P4 or P2 and P2lite at the very least. Once this happens you can easily have a 12 team playoff that will be competitive with conference champs playing for a Bye. I don't see any viable format at the moment aside from heartless subjective rankings that will involve two SEC teams every year vs a B1G team and maybe another party crasher that will be blown out.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 06:15 PM by RUScarlets.)
08-05-2022 06:05 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:58 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:48 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  All ESPN has to do is guarantee a payout that makes The ACC the clear #3, guarantee playoff access and a conference network. Again if ESPN wants to break The ACC GOR guarantee 75 million or so to the teams left behind in The ACC.

It’s all about the money. It’s as simple as that.

Why would ESPN want to break the ACC GOR? They have all schools under contract at a below market price until 2036.

To free up programs to jump to The SEC. That’s the only reason
08-05-2022 06:08 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  "ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

In other words, the amount to buy out the GOR and eat the contract is half of what it would be now. The P2 (at 16 or 18) likely will hold spaces for the four best properties of the ACC and go to 20 while the remainders will slog along with diminished expectations and a Pac-12 sized contract.

What could come out of this is a Premier League (Big 10, SEC), a Power 3 (Big 12, Pac-12, ACC), a second group of 3 (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt), and a confederation of the rest (MAC, CUSA)

It would take ESPN and FOX not being adversarial- corporate cold wars are good for realignment.

Perhaps they are back on the same page after ESPN jumped ahead and extracted OUT before BIG and PAC pivotal summers, catching FOX sleeping. Some say that was unintentional, leaked. No, finding out about it was MAYBE unintentional, but ESPN was clearly moving OUT before FOX/BIG got involved.

If so, they could come to an agreement on how the ACC gets split, then both networks can hit pause.

That would be a win for ESPN, as FOX could force ESPN to spend now. But I could see it, as let's be real, FOX at best could get a pyrrhic victory- make ESPN spend its way to hegemony both sports.

FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, UVa, Duke, KU all added to the SEC may cost ESPN in the short-run to the accountant, but that's near a P1 setup. If aligned with ND and a 3rrd conference which is a combination of leftovers, which ESPN would have the cash for if out on BIG, FOX has a BIG problem if ESPN starts its own postseason in both sports
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 06:20 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-05-2022 06:14 PM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 06:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The networks have botched it. I don't know what data or algorithms they are using, but it has nothing to do with what is actually taking place on the football field. Believe it or not, Big East football used to make headlines and be front and center on professional sports talk radio some time ago, at least for the big games and not just during peak Schiano years. The fans have gone away... do we just blame demographics for everything?

We need to get back to rivalries and competitive games that count for something. Not Bama blowing out X Y Z team every year en route to the NCG:

They've killed conferences. Regionalized the sport. Torpedoed the Rose Bowl... it's comical what these business analytics guys draw up on their spreadsheets.

1) Get WVU and UC to the ACC... move out FSU/Clemson if the SEC wants them and will pay them and then add UCF.

2) DON'T break up the ACC. As much as I hate the conference, UNC is not a B1G team. Don't kill the basketball for football. Try to make it work with FSU and Clemson and add additional teams without a crazy payout. Pay the big schools on an incentive based pay scale so long as those programs stay in the rules. Agree to third party arbitration between a representative council overseeing NIL/recruitment and individual schools where/when conference bylaws are seemingly transgressed.

3) Form a super conference between the Big 12 and PAC remainders. There are no blue bloods in either conference (especially with additional PAC defections) that no single school stands out to skew the conferences' overall values. Just merge.

4) Don't expand the playoff until we get to P4 or P2 and P2lite at the very least. Once this happens you can easily have a 12 team playoff that will be competitive with conference champs playing for a Bye. I don't see any viable format at the moment aside from heartless subjective rankings that will involve two SEC teams every year vs a B1G team and maybe another party crasher that will be blown out.

I agree with your frustration over the "purity" of the sport and a nostalgia for the old days.

When it comes to major college football (and I admit a bias as a PSU/P5 fan), I think some of your goals could happen in the following way. It might take until the ACC GOR ends...but that's the way glacial change happens in the NCAA.

1. The Big Ten poaches 3-4 more Pac-10 teams (UW, Or, Stanford and maybe Cal). The 4 Corners schools goes to the Big 12.

(Only OrSt and WSU are really left out)

2. The SEC takes best 3-4 Big 12 teams. Probably Kansas, OkSt, Baylor, Colorado...

(The Big 12 is left with 16 schools)

3. The ACC GOR ends. The Big Ten takes UNC, UVA, FSU, and Duke. The SEC takes Clemson, NcState, VaTech, GaTech.

(The ACC is left with just 6 schools...so the Big 12 promptly poaches the remaining schools. Adds UConn and San Diego State to round out 24.)

What are we left with?
Big Ten. 24 teams. 6 on the West Coast. 7 up the Atlantic Coast. Plus the original Big Ten and contingent state Nebraska. It's the elite national conference, but it has regional flavor with old ACC rivals (UMD, UNC, UVA, Duke, FSU) and Pac-12 teams.

SEC. 24 teams. Heavily regional still...nothing north of Virginia. Almost no schools in the Mountain Time Zones. That's the SEC brand. Strong Big 8 flavor though...OkSt, Mizzou, Kansas, OU, maybe Colorado. Strong SWC history...UT, TAMU, Baylor, Arkansas. Some ACC flavor...but teams with long rivlaries in the SEC (Clemson, NcSt, VaTech, GaTech).

Big 12. 24 teams. As national as the Big Ten...but obviously with less elite prestige. But great teams that can compete against the Big 2 leagues. It's a hodge-podge--granted...but it's a hodge-podge with tons of connections and history. BYU, TCU, SDSU with history. UC, Louisville, WVU with history...Syracuse, BC, UConn with history... And then the core Big 12 teams that remained.


*I didn't know what to do with ND. If they want the Big Ten, Cal is out. If they want to remain indy, they'll always have a spot.
08-06-2022 12:43 AM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 06:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The networks have botched it. I don't know what data or algorithms they are using, but it has nothing to do with what is actually taking place on the football field. Believe it or not, Big East football used to make headlines and be front and center on professional sports talk radio some time ago, at least for the big games and not just during peak Schiano years. The fans have gone away... do we just blame demographics for everything?

We need to get back to rivalries and competitive games that count for something. Not Bama blowing out X Y Z team every year en route to the NCG:

They've killed conferences. Regionalized the sport. Torpedoed the Rose Bowl... it's comical what these business analytics guys draw up on their spreadsheets.

1) Get WVU and UC to the ACC... move out FSU/Clemson if the SEC wants them and will pay them and then add UCF.

2) DON'T break up the ACC. As much as I hate the conference, UNC is not a B1G team. Don't kill the basketball for football. Try to make it work with FSU and Clemson and add additional teams without a crazy payout. Pay the big schools on an incentive based pay scale so long as those programs stay in the rules. Agree to third party arbitration between a representative council overseeing NIL/recruitment and individual schools where/when conference bylaws are seemingly transgressed.

3) Form a super conference between the Big 12 and PAC remainders. There are no blue bloods in either conference (especially with additional PAC defections) that no single school stands out to skew the conferences' overall values. Just merge.

4) Don't expand the playoff until we get to P4 or P2 and P2lite at the very least. Once this happens you can easily have a 12 team playoff that will be competitive with conference champs playing for a Bye. I don't see any viable format at the moment aside from heartless subjective rankings that will involve two SEC teams every year vs a B1G team and maybe another party crasher that will be blown out.

RUScarlets, this is going to sound crazy, but how would combine #1 & #2?? In the ACC, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all want a divorce. UNC doesn't want a divorce, but will do anything to protect its own interests. Notre Dame is the friend with benefits, but at some point, I think that the rest of the ACC would say, enough is enough, and would cut Notre Dame loose. Could UNC and Notre Dame come together to save the ACC??? Possible, but not likely, IMO.
08-06-2022 01:19 AM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-06-2022 01:19 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 06:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The networks have botched it. I don't know what data or algorithms they are using, but it has nothing to do with what is actually taking place on the football field. Believe it or not, Big East football used to make headlines and be front and center on professional sports talk radio some time ago, at least for the big games and not just during peak Schiano years. The fans have gone away... do we just blame demographics for everything?

We need to get back to rivalries and competitive games that count for something. Not Bama blowing out X Y Z team every year en route to the NCG:

They've killed conferences. Regionalized the sport. Torpedoed the Rose Bowl... it's comical what these business analytics guys draw up on their spreadsheets.

1) Get WVU and UC to the ACC... move out FSU/Clemson if the SEC wants them and will pay them and then add UCF.

2) DON'T break up the ACC. As much as I hate the conference, UNC is not a B1G team. Don't kill the basketball for football. Try to make it work with FSU and Clemson and add additional teams without a crazy payout. Pay the big schools on an incentive based pay scale so long as those programs stay in the rules. Agree to third party arbitration between a representative council overseeing NIL/recruitment and individual schools where/when conference bylaws are seemingly transgressed.

3) Form a super conference between the Big 12 and PAC remainders. There are no blue bloods in either conference (especially with additional PAC defections) that no single school stands out to skew the conferences' overall values. Just merge.

4) Don't expand the playoff until we get to P4 or P2 and P2lite at the very least. Once this happens you can easily have a 12 team playoff that will be competitive with conference champs playing for a Bye. I don't see any viable format at the moment aside from heartless subjective rankings that will involve two SEC teams every year vs a B1G team and maybe another party crasher that will be blown out.

RUScarlets, this is going to sound crazy, but how would combine #1 & #2?? In the ACC, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all want a divorce. UNC doesn't want a divorce, but will do anything to protect its own interests. Notre Dame is the friend with benefits, but at some point, I think that the rest of the ACC would say, enough is enough, and would cut Notre Dame loose. Could UNC and Notre Dame come together to save the ACC??? Possible, but not likely, IMO.


I have seen a lot of posts on message boards the past twenty or twenty five years or so about ND "saving" certain conferences.

(Not picking on your comment at all, it just gave me a reason to post this)

ND has no interest in "saving" the ACC from its own North Carolina Tobacco Road caused problems.

Why do people always expect ND to "save" conferences (Big East and ACC)......... from themselves ??

Those conferences apparently could not/cannot save themselves with 15 and 14 other members banded together, respectively.

Their problems were not caused by ND. They made the decisions that caused their problems well before ND got involved.

Why couldn't they "save" themselves instead of just hoping that ND does something (it doesn't want to do) to "save" those conferences from their own self inflicted problems?

Both conferences took ND as a partial member without football. They knew the score.

That was the deal both conferences eagerly sought and eagerly signed. So, ND has no "duty" to join for football because it joined for other sports.

Anyway, the ACC kicking ND out could potentially save ND over $200 million in exit fees, contractual damages and GOR buyout money.

I hope you are right and they do say "enough is enough".

Then, ND would be unencumbered, free from exit fees, GOR's and contracts with the ACC.

It could either stay independent and move its other sports to the Big East or join the Big Ten.

Either would be fine as opposed to locking ND football into a Tier Two conference to "save" it, only to find itself also doomed to lower payouts and diminished status long term.

Sadly, not even the ACC is not dumb enough to cut ND loose . It certainly is no viable "threat" to ND if the ACC did so.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2022 07:36 AM by TerryD.)
08-06-2022 07:18 AM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 06:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The networks have botched it. I don't know what data or algorithms they are using, but it has nothing to do with what is actually taking place on the football field. Believe it or not, Big East football used to make headlines and be front and center on professional sports talk radio some time ago, at least for the big games and not just during peak Schiano years. The fans have gone away... do we just blame demographics for everything?

We need to get back to rivalries and competitive games that count for something. Not Bama blowing out X Y Z team every year en route to the NCG:

They've killed conferences. Regionalized the sport. Torpedoed the Rose Bowl... it's comical what these business analytics guys draw up on their spreadsheets.

1) Get WVU and UC to the ACC... move out FSU/Clemson if the SEC wants them and will pay them and then add UCF.

2) DON'T break up the ACC. As much as I hate the conference, UNC is not a B1G team. Don't kill the basketball for football. Try to make it work with FSU and Clemson and add additional teams without a crazy payout. Pay the big schools on an incentive based pay scale so long as those programs stay in the rules. Agree to third party arbitration between a representative council overseeing NIL/recruitment and individual schools where/when conference bylaws are seemingly transgressed.

3) Form a super conference between the Big 12 and PAC remainders. There are no blue bloods in either conference (especially with additional PAC defections) that no single school stands out to skew the conferences' overall values. Just merge.

4) Don't expand the playoff until we get to P4 or P2 and P2lite at the very least. Once this happens you can easily have a 12 team playoff that will be competitive with conference champs playing for a Bye. I don't see any viable format at the moment aside from heartless subjective rankings that will involve two SEC teams every year vs a B1G team and maybe another party crasher that will be blown out.

Interesting plan - now you just need the conferences to go along with it : )

I think the ACC has a possibility of surviving, but FSU and Clemson need to go at the very least, they are affecting conference stability more than anyone else.

If B10 gets FSU they'll also likely take Miami and/or GA tech. If SEC gets FSU (and Clemson), they may stop, unless B10 goes after Miami/GA tech anyway.

But that's minimum moves.

It's looking more and more like SEC and B10 will split most of the ACC, and the B10 and the B12 will split most of the PAC.

Everyone seems to be waiting on ND and looking into ACC's GoR - and apparently a lot of negotiations going on behind-the-scenes.

At this point, I think it's really starting to look like they're all just trying to figure out what the court cases and/or arbitration cases are going to look like...
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2022 07:43 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-06-2022 07:42 AM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 06:08 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:58 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:48 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  All ESPN has to do is guarantee a payout that makes The ACC the clear #3, guarantee playoff access and a conference network. Again if ESPN wants to break The ACC GOR guarantee 75 million or so to the teams left behind in The ACC.

It’s all about the money. It’s as simple as that.

Why would ESPN want to break the ACC GOR? They have all schools under contract at a below market price until 2036.

[b]To free up programs to jump to The SEC. That’s the only reason/b]

Which would jump to the SEC?
I guess Florida State would be the most likely, beyond that I'm not sure any school would (even Clemson, whose PTB are some of the biggest academic snobs you will ever meet. Clemson's success has come because the school markets itself as an anti-SEC alternative). Some really old timers at Georgia Tech....maybe (GT would have a hard time reaching Vanderbilt's level in the SEC).
08-06-2022 07:48 AM
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RE: McMurphy on podcast
(08-05-2022 05:52 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 05:30 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  "ACC is pretty much tied up by GOR, but around 2030 things will happen with them."

In other words, the amount to buy out the GOR and eat the contract is half of what it would be now. The P2 (at 16 or 18) likely will hold spaces for the four best properties of the ACC and go to 20 while the remainders will slog along with diminished expectations and a Pac-12 sized contract.

What could come out of this is a Premier League (Big 10, SEC), a Power 3 (Big 12, Pac-12, ACC), a second group of 3 (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt), and a confederation of the rest (MAC, CUSA)

Posts like these come from fans who don't want to be relegated to the "G"s. The reality is that if things go the way the Big Ten & SEC want, it's the "P2" and "G8"/"everyone else". There won't be 3-4 different divisions within FBS.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2022 07:52 AM by Yosef181.)
08-06-2022 07:51 AM
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