(08-05-2022 04:21 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: (08-05-2022 04:01 PM)bullet Wrote: (08-05-2022 03:49 PM)Milwaukee Wrote: There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility that the Big XII schools may receive less than $20 million per year in broadcasting revenue, due to the departure of OU & Texas.
This would represent a substantial revenue cut, in the range of $10 to $15 million/year less than what the Big XII schools are currently receiving from the broadcasters.
Yet those who argue that the PAC will stay put with only 10 schools seem to have the impression that their broadcasting revenue streams will be relatively unaffected by the departure of USC and UCLA.
Question: Why would the departure of OU and Texas have a devastating impact on the Big XII remainers' broadcasting revenue, while the departure of USC and UCLA would have only a trivial impact on the PAC remainers?
Its only coming from message board posters who have absolutely nothing to base it on, but they "feel" the Big 12 should get less than now. If they say that, they are someone who should probably be ignored on the topic. And are pretty ignorant about TV ratings and the relative strength of the conferences on the field (which has some influence on TV ratings).
That may be so. What's mystifying to me is why there was so much of a hubbub about the huge revenue cuts the Big XII would receive, yet complete silence about revenue cuts for the PAC.
It's especially baffling when one notes the fact that the Big XII is reloading (adding Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU), while there are no signs that the PAC will replace USC or UCLA. One would think that the conference that has announced it's reloading would be viewed as protecting its revenue stream to some extent, and that the conference that doesn't reload would be expected to take a greater revenue hit.
When OU and UT announced they were leaving, Bob Bowlsby estimated that would cost the Big 12 50% of their TV revenue:
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/tamu-f...oma-exits/
"Bowlsby estimates that the remaining eight Big 12 schools could lose $14 million per year in TV revenue upon Oklahoma and Texas’ departure. Bowlsby added that Big 12 distributes roughly $28 million in TV money per school, and OU/Texas account for about 50 percent of that, Sam Khan, Jr. of The Athletic reported."
Adding four G5 schools gets some additional income, but not $140 million annually. The fact that the TV contract is a decade old will help, but not much without Oklahoma and Texas. Twenty million per school or $240 milion seems low, but what school is carrying the flag for the Big 12 in football? Who would the networks trust in football?
The PAC still has Oregon and Washington, and even Stanford and Cal. At least for now. There are few programs in college football that are doing as well as Oregon. They are a top ten football brand. Since 2010, there have been nine schools that have played in a college football national championship game. Oregon is one of those nine schools and they have done it twice. Oregon was the only Pac-12 team ranked in the top ten in TV ratings in 2021, with 4 games on ABC , 2 on FOX, and 3 games on ESPN in the 10:30PM hour that ESPN likes. They have had three consecutive drafts with a top ten pick, joining Alabama and LSU as the only schools that have done that the past three years.
They are a top 15 recruiting school and already have two 5-star recruits for 2023:
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Footba...tRankings/
2. Dante Moore Martin Luther King (Detroit, MI) QB
14. Jurrion Dickey Valley Christian (East Palo Alto, CA) WR
They also have 3 four-star recruits from Texas, and one four star recruit from Mississippi. Washington and Stanford also each have one four-star recruit from Texas. In 2022, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona finished in the top 25 in football recruiting. No new Big 12 school finished in the top 25.
I have no idea what the PAC will end up with for a TV contract, but as long as they have Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal, they will be okay. No one is saying that the PAC will be unaffected by the loss of UCLA and USC. That loss could cost the PAC $200 million annually from what was expected. Or maybe just $100 million. But they will be okay if the Big Ten stops at 16. For the Big 12, who is their Oregon?