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FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
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JRsec Offline
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FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!
08-04-2022 06:19 PM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

So who is their 4th, I can't imagine the SEC only adding those schools and stopping at 19??

Edit; IMO it would be North Carolina, if they could pull them by themselves and the 3 schools mentioned that would be a nice 4-some
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 06:29 PM by SouthEastAlaska.)
08-04-2022 06:27 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:27 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

So who is their 4th, I can't imagine the SEC only adding those schools and stopping at 19??

I think the public consensus is North Carolina. Maybe. Of course, the SEC could move to 18 with those 3, if a school in our midst decided NIL, Pay for Play and facilities' improvement demands were too much. I think they would make a run at UNC, and essentially grant them a favor perhaps in selecting 2 buds in the next 4. They could look West for one. It would be fun to see.

But note: I could also mean Notre Dame has the all clear.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 06:35 PM by JRsec.)
08-04-2022 06:33 PM
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otown Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

You do realize about a week ago he was even talking about SEC considering taking UCF. Just let that sink in. He is all over the place and looking for attention.
08-04-2022 06:37 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
It’s going to be interesting watching this play out.

What’s it worth to ESPN and The SEC to get 3 or 4 programs out of The ACC a decade both the GOR expires. It also raises the question if ESPN, The SEC and The ACC work this out, what about other programs that may have opportunities to move to a non-ESPN conference.

I hope there is some truth to this. If something like this is going to happen, it needs to happen now.
08-04-2022 06:45 PM
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PeteTheChop Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Of course, the SEC could move to 18 with those 3, if a school in our midst decided NIL, Pay for Play and facilities' improvement demands or being a Midwestern-shaped peg in a Southern-shaped hole were too much.

Fixed it for you JR

#SendMizzouToTheB1G
08-04-2022 06:47 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:47 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Of course, the SEC could move to 18 with those 3, if a school in our midst decided NIL, Pay for Play and facilities' improvement demands or being a Midwestern-shaped peg in a Southern-shaped hole were too much.

Fixed it for you JR

#SendMizzouToTheB1G

Well Pete the SEC has never asked anybody to leave and has never kicked anyone out. So, if Missouri were to leave it would have to be their decision. I had in mind a small private which might be able to become an all but football member which could be a lovely way to accommodate Duke so that UNC could move with N.C. State for all sports.

Lots of angles will be explored in the next year or two.
08-04-2022 06:52 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:37 PM)otown Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

You do realize about a week ago he was even talking about SEC considering taking UCF. Just let that sink in. He is all over the place and looking for attention.

What part of FWIW do you not understand? The board is well documented with my opinion on talking heads!
08-04-2022 06:59 PM
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Glenn360 Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
someone must have found out that conference realignment talk increases engagement
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 07:06 PM by Glenn360.)
08-04-2022 07:06 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:45 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  It’s going to be interesting watching this play out.

What’s it worth to ESPN and The SEC to get 3 or 4 programs out of The ACC a decade both the GOR expires. It also raises the question if ESPN, The SEC and The ACC work this out, what about other programs that may have opportunities to move to a non-ESPN conference.

I hope there is some truth to this. If something like this is going to happen, it needs to happen now.

Jim, I agree with you, and it does need to happen now! 14 years from now will bypass the last big earnings before demographics usher in a series of major paradigm shifts.

I raised Vandy and Pete raised Missouri. Let's unpack that.

Let's say the Big 10 picks up 4 more PAC schools and adds Notre Dame. They have 3 slots with which to make it all work. Colorado, Kansas, Utah would make it work.

So, if Vandy goes all but football the SEC has 9 slots to 24. Make Duke and Wake all but football and you can add Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville and Georgia Tech and complete the football membership at 24. Find a 4th all but football member and you're set.
08-04-2022 07:18 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
IF this happens (this is all just theory/speculation as has been the vast majority of rumors) I could potentially/wouldn't mind seeing this:

-ACC adds WVU, CINCY and UCF to replace Miami, FSU and Clemson.
-To regain as much of the Florida market they would add USF. Then could add one of the following schools:
FAU, UCONN, Memphis (ND would probably be impossible to get as a full member if they lose all 3).

Would create a 16 team ACC:

NORTH: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Cincy
STATES:(OH, PA, MA, NY)

COMMONWEALTH: VA, VT, WV, Louisville
STATES:(VA, WV, KY)

CAROLINAS: UNC, Duke, WF, NC-State
STATES:(NC)

SOUTH: USF, UCF, GT, Memphis
STATES:(FL, GA, TN)

-Big12 backfill their departures with Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah. To get to 16 teams they could add:
Oregon, Washington, SDSU

Would create a 16 BIG12:

NORTHWEST: UW, Oregon, Utah, BYU
STATES:(WA, OR, UT)

SOUTHWEST: AZ, SDSU, ASU, TTU
STATES:(AZ, CA, TX)

NORTHEAST: ISU, Colorado, KSU, Kansas
STATES:(IA, CO, KS)

SOUTHEAST: Baylor, TCU, Houston, OSU
STATES:(TX, OK)
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 07:39 PM by Utgrizfan.)
08-04-2022 07:32 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
That’s how it should play out. Just a matter of how the deal gets executed.

What are the transaction (GOR settlement) costs? Do a couple schools need to go madman tactics to get everyone to the table with terms? Are those terms a P2 landing spot for 1-2 more, like UCLA getting covered by USC? Rumor is 6 total would do it.

It’s one thing to say you’re willing to wither away with the ACC, to the benefit of no one long term, another thing to actually be holding the bag when the football schools work their way out.

My guess is the terms for UNC are well under way. Once that’s done, there’s too much against the leftovers to not take reasonable accommodations offered by ESPN.
08-04-2022 07:42 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Pac-12 schools will also be targeted by the SEC. Don't think for a second that the SEC isn't trying to work with Oregon, Arizona St, and maybe others as well.
08-04-2022 07:46 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:37 PM)otown Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

You do realize about a week ago he was even talking about SEC considering taking UCF. Just let that sink in. He is all over the place and looking for attention.

What part of FWIW do you not understand? The board is well documented with my opinion on talking heads!

04-cheers
08-04-2022 07:46 PM
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RE: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.
08-04-2022 07:59 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:46 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  Pac-12 schools will also be targeted by the SEC. Don't think for a second that the SEC isn't trying to work with Oregon, Arizona St, and maybe others as well.

I'd would be shocked. The SEC's priorities for 30 years have been branding in the SE and SW. I don't believe for a second that the SEC would abandon such a highly successful approach.
08-04-2022 08:08 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:32 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  IF this happens (this is all just theory/speculation as has been the vast majority of rumors) I could potentially/wouldn't mind seeing this:

-ACC adds WVU, CINCY and UCF to replace Miami, FSU and Clemson.
-To regain as much of the Florida market they would add USF. Then could add one of the following schools:
FAU, UCONN, Memphis (ND would probably be impossible to get as a full member if they lose all 3).

Would create a 16 team ACC:

NORTH: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Cincy
STATES:(OH, PA, MA, NY)

COMMONWEALTH: VA, VT, WV, Louisville
STATES:(VA, WV, KY)

CAROLINAS: UNC, Duke, WF, NC-State
STATES:(NC)

SOUTH: USF, UCF, GT, Memphis
STATES:(FL, GA, TN)

-Big12 backfill their departures with Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah. To get to 16 teams they could add:
Oregon, Washington, SDSU

Would create a 16 BIG12:

NORTHWEST: UW, Oregon, Utah, BYU
STATES:(WA, OR, UT)

SOUTHWEST: AZ, SDSU, ASU, TTU
STATES:(AZ, CA, TX)

NORTHEAST: ISU, Colorado, KSU, Kansas
STATES:(IA, CO, KS)

SOUTHEAST: Baylor, TCU, Houston, OSU
STATES:(TX, OK)


Then what, when P2 adds a few more? Or are you assuming they stop at 19 and 16 schools?

I don’t see it.

It’s better for the leftovers to consolidate into the “other guy” conference ASAP. The social capital of being P5s will be gone in 1-2 seasons after these brands move to P2, it’s already fleeting.

Whether that’s the Big 12 or ACC only matters to a few schools. It won’t be east to west direction though. Call it the 12 PACC for now. Then once more P2 promotions occur, you potentially back fill with the P5s that didn’t make the 3rd conference, or G5’s like SDSU, Memphis, USF.

If 4 corners think they can wait risk free to form Big 16 (which would likely become 18) and sign short GOR, then the Big 12 schools (not conference HQ obviously) would be wise to explore for 8-12 Big 12 schools in ACC. It locks in a spot in the 3rd conference, at worst trading the KSU types for Wake/BC
08-04-2022 08:09 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:46 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  Pac-12 schools will also be targeted by the SEC. Don't think for a second that the SEC isn't trying to work with Oregon, Arizona St, and maybe others as well.

Targeted by SEC or ESPN?

I buy the latter, but not SEC.

As long as they’re in the ESPN League, they don’t need to be in the SEC.
If one of those schools became too good, you’d just see them play select SEC schools when needed to fill a void.

Putting them in the SEC isn’t needed and likely brings down SEC. Putting them in the “other guy” conference, also owned by ESPN, gets the same benefits without parasitic load to SEC. ESPN can bundle the two networks and get both in those markets imo
08-04-2022 08:15 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.
08-04-2022 08:19 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:27 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

So who is their 4th, I can't imagine the SEC only adding those schools and stopping at 19??

Edit; IMO it would be North Carolina, if they could pull them by themselves and the 3 schools mentioned that would be a nice 4-some

They won't need a 4th, they will just need to move Vanderbilt to the ACC. That gives the SEC 18....the perfect number.
08-04-2022 08:42 PM
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