Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Author Message
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 30,358
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 4111
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #101
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 11:53 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
ACC Brands left to be taken and assuming 12 are needed for dissolution:

From the ACC:
Florida State / 10th nationally in Revenue / 2nd in the ACC in value added
Clemson / 26th nationally in Revenue / 1st in the ACC in value added
Louisville / 15th nationally in Revenue / 7th in the ACC in value added
Miami / 29th nationally in Revenue / 5th in the ACC in value added
North Carolina / 35th nationally in Revenue / 8th in the ACC in value added
Virginia Tech / 46th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the ACC in value added
N.C. State / 56th nationally in Revenue / 6th in the ACC in value added
Georgia Tech / 60th nationally in Revenue / 4th in the ACC in value added
Virginia / 36th nationally in Revenue / 9th in the ACC in value added
Syracuse / 59th nationally in Revenue / 10th in the ACC in value added
Pittsburgh / 45th nationally in Revenue / 11th in the ACC in value added
Boston College / 57th nationally in Revenue / 12th in the ACC in value added
Wake Forest / 61st nationally in Revenue / 13th in the ACC in value added
Duke / 33rd nationally in Revenue / 14th in the ACC in value added
*** Notre Dame is the Star brand and greatest value and counts in dissolution***

If adjusted for basketball value added:
Louisville is 1st
Florida State 2nd
Clemson 3rd
Virginia Tech 4th
North Carolina is 5th
Syracuse is 6th
Duke is 7th
N.C. State 8th
Georgia Tech 9th
Miami 10th
Virginia 11th
Pittsburgh 12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College is 14th

B12 remaining schools of interest:

Kansas / 34th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the B12 when adjusted for basketball with a significant gap between 3rd and 4th.

*** If Kansas was adjusted for basketball valuation and placed in the ACC here is where they would stand: 5th in Revenue / 1st in value added.

PAC school are limited to just the Big 10.




Market additions left to be taken:

Georgia Tech / Atlanta
Miami / Miami (the greater region)
Texas Christian / DFW
Florida State (general state coverage)
North Carolina (general state coverage)
Virginia Tech / Virginia (general state coverage)
Syracuse (general state coverage)
Boston College (Greater Boston)
Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh)


There's the info.

So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states
) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Dissolution is not the only means around the GOR in these types of deals and the methodology behind these valuations debatable imo. Reminds me of Shapiro telling Delaney he was rolling the dice passing on ESPN's offer...I should say Shapiro formerly of ESPN.

I don't really know how much the valuations deltas between some of these matters in the end anyway, with the BIG and SEC brand being what is important going forward. This is adding franchises to the league as much as it is getting the current brand of these schools. Which can best prosper with just their own area so as to mitigate the need to cannibalize other franchises in the conference?

The values are merely indicative of the strength of the school relative to its own market, which can also be estimated by attendance. Revenue generation is important as an evaluative tool by which to gauge a school's strength within its alumni family. Subtract media revenue and you get an apples to apples comparison.
08-08-2022 12:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 55,080
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 2310
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #102
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
4 year average attendance (2016-19) among the A3. The average for the SEC (it would go up with UT/OU) was 74,881. For the Big 10 it was 65,213 (it would drop slightly with UCLA/USC). There were only 3 schools that beat the Big 10 average and only 5 that beat the Big 10 median of 57,134. SEC median was over 81k, even higher than the average. Nobody beat the SEC median.

1 Clemson ACC 80,753
2 Washington Pac12 67,679
3 Florida State ACC 67,513
4 Virginia Tech ACC 61,031
5 Miami, FL ACC 57,888
6 N Carolina State ACC 56,917
7 West Virginia Big12 56,899
8 BYU Ind 56,715
9 Iowa State Big12 56,573
10 Texas Tech Big12 55,692
11 Oklahoma State Big12 54,741
12 Oregon Pac12 54,192
13 Kansas State Big12 50,444
14 Louisville ACC 50,097
15 Arizona State Pac12 48,988
16 North Carolina ACC 48,611
17 Colorado Pac12 47,262
18 Utah Pac12 46,303
19 Georgia Tech ACC 45,519
20 Baylor Big12 44,130
21 Arizona Pac12 43,972
22 TCU Big12 43,749
23 California Pac12 42,119
24 Pittsburgh ACC 41,860
25 Virginia ACC 41,724
26 Stanford Pac12 41,600
27 UCF American 40,114
28 Syracuse ACC 36,485
29 Oregon State Pac12 35,002
30 Boston College ACC 34,972
31 Cincinnati American 32,131
32 Houston American 31,723
33 Washington State Pac12 30,572
34 Duke ACC 27,287
35 Wake Forest ACC 27,183
36 Kansas Big12 26,442
08-08-2022 01:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,876
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 238
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #103
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 01:28 PM)bullet Wrote:  4 year average attendance (2016-19) among the A3. The average for the SEC (it would go up with UT/OU) was 74,881. For the Big 10 it was 65,213 (it would drop slightly with UCLA/USC). There were only 3 schools that beat the Big 10 average and only 5 that beat the Big 10 median of 57,134. SEC median was over 81k, even higher than the average. Nobody beat the SEC median.

1 Clemson ACC 80,753
2 Washington Pac12 67,679
3 Florida State ACC 67,513
4 Virginia Tech ACC 61,031
5 Miami, FL ACC 57,888
6 N Carolina State ACC 56,917
7 West Virginia Big12 56,899
8 BYU Ind 56,715
9 Iowa State Big12 56,573
10 Texas Tech Big12 55,692
11 Oklahoma State Big12 54,741
12 Oregon Pac12 54,192
13 Kansas State Big12 50,444
14 Louisville ACC 50,097
15 Arizona State Pac12 48,988
16 North Carolina ACC 48,611
17 Colorado Pac12 47,262
18 Utah Pac12 46,303
19 Georgia Tech ACC 45,519
20 Baylor Big12 44,130
21 Arizona Pac12 43,972
22 TCU Big12 43,749
23 California Pac12 42,119
24 Pittsburgh ACC 41,860
25 Virginia ACC 41,724
26 Stanford Pac12 41,600
27 UCF American 40,114
28 Syracuse ACC 36,485
29 Oregon State Pac12 35,002
30 Boston College ACC 34,972
31 Cincinnati American 32,131
32 Houston American 31,723
33 Washington State Pac12 30,572
34 Duke ACC 27,287
35 Wake Forest ACC 27,183
36 Kansas Big12 26,442


We know that Miami's figures are fudged since many of their games were less than half fill for games for Miami at home. That does not look good on tv. They have donors with deep pockets buying the tickets that they could not sell.
08-08-2022 02:59 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,876
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 238
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #104
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
ACC Brands left to be taken and assuming 12 are needed for dissolution:

From the ACC:
Florida State / 10th nationally in Revenue / 2nd in the ACC in value added
Clemson / 26th nationally in Revenue / 1st in the ACC in value added
Louisville / 15th nationally in Revenue / 7th in the ACC in value added
Miami / 29th nationally in Revenue / 5th in the ACC in value added
North Carolina / 35th nationally in Revenue / 8th in the ACC in value added
Virginia Tech / 46th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the ACC in value added
N.C. State / 56th nationally in Revenue / 6th in the ACC in value added
Georgia Tech / 60th nationally in Revenue / 4th in the ACC in value added
Virginia / 36th nationally in Revenue / 9th in the ACC in value added
Syracuse / 59th nationally in Revenue / 10th in the ACC in value added
Pittsburgh / 45th nationally in Revenue / 11th in the ACC in value added
Boston College / 57th nationally in Revenue / 12th in the ACC in value added
Wake Forest / 61st nationally in Revenue / 13th in the ACC in value added
Duke / 33rd nationally in Revenue / 14th in the ACC in value added
*** Notre Dame is the Star brand and greatest value and counts in dissolution***

If adjusted for basketball value added:
Louisville is 1st
Florida State 2nd
Clemson 3rd
Virginia Tech 4th
North Carolina is 5th
Syracuse is 6th
Duke is 7th
N.C. State 8th
Georgia Tech 9th
Miami 10th
Virginia 11th
Pittsburgh 12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College is 14th

B12 remaining schools of interest:

Kansas / 34th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the B12 when adjusted for basketball with a significant gap between 3rd and 4th.

*** If Kansas was adjusted for basketball valuation and placed in the ACC here is where they would stand: 5th in Revenue / 1st in value added.

PAC school are limited to just the Big 10.




Market additions left to be taken:

Georgia Tech / Atlanta
Miami / Miami (the greater region)
Texas Christian / DFW
Florida State (general state coverage)
North Carolina (general state coverage)
Virginia Tech / Virginia (general state coverage)
Syracuse (general state coverage)
Boston College (Greater Boston)
Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh)


There's the info.

So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states
) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Louisville is 1st There is no interests in them.
Florida State 2nd Both Big 10 and SEC wants them.
Clemson 3rd SEC
Virginia Tech 4th SEC
North Carolina is 5th Big 10 as NC State goes to SEC.
Syracuse is 6th No interests in them from any conferences
Duke is 7th No interest, and the fanbase is way too small.
N.C. State 8th SEC
Georgia Tech 9th Big 10 could grab them.
Miami 10th No interests as their fanbase have somepletely srunk.
Virginia 11th Big 10
Pittsburgh 12th Big 10
Wake Forest 13th No fanbase.
Boston College is 14th No fanbase.


Other markets from the other conferences.
AAC:
SMU - Dallas
Memphis- Memphis
USF - Tampa
Temple - Philly
Rice - Houston
UTSA - San Antonio
UAB - Birmingham
Charlotte - Charlotte
Navy - Baltimore
Tulsa - Tulsa
Tulane - New Orleans
Wichita State - Wichita if they add football.
FAU - Boca Raton
North Texas - Denton

SMU, Memphis and Navy might be going to another conference.

C-USA:
UTEP - El Paso
Middle Tennessee State - Murphreesboro

MAC:
Toledo - Toledo
Buffalo - Buffalo
Northern Illinois - Chicago area.
Akron - Akron
Ball State - Muncie


Big 12:
TCU - Dallas
BYU - Salt Lake City
Houston - Houston
UCF - Orlando
Cincinnati - Cincinnati
Texas Tech - Lubbock

MWC:
San Diego State - San Diego
Fresno State- Fresno
UNR - Reno
UNLV - Las Vegas
Boise State - Boise
Air Force - Colorado Springs
San Jose State - San Jose
New Mexico - Alberquerqee
Utah State - Logan


PAC 12:
Arizona State - Tempe
Arizona - Tucsun
California -Berkley
Oregon -Eugene
Stanford - Stanford
Utah - Salt Lake City
Washington - Seattle

SBC:
Arkansas State - Jonesboro
Georgia State - Atlanta
ODU - Norfolk
South Alabama - Mobile
Southern Mississippi - Hattiesburg

Independent:
Army - West Point
UConn - Storrs
UMass. - Amherst

FCS:
UCA - Conway
Kennesaw State - Kennesaw
UNA - Florence
UNF - Jacksonville
Montana - Missoula
Montana State -Boozeman
Northern Arizona - Flagstaff
Portland State - Portland
Sacramento State - Sacramento
Weber State - Ogden
Indiana State - Terre Haute
Illinois State - Bloomington
Missouri State - Springfield
NDSU - Fargo
Northern Iowa - Ceder Falls
Youngstown State - Youngstown
Central Connecticutt State - New Britain
LIU - Brooklyn
Little Rock - Little Rock
Lindenwood - St. Charles
Tennessee State - Nashville
Holy Cross - Worcester
Butler - Indianapolis
Dayton - Dayton
Drake - Des Moines
St Thomas - St. Paul
San Diego - San Diego
Houston Baptist - Houston
UIW - San Antonio
Lamar - Beaumont
McNeese State - Lake Charles
Chattanooga - Chattanooga
East Tennessee State - Johnson City
Mercer - Macon
Alabama State - Montgomery
Bethune-Cookman - Daytona Beach
Florida A&M- Tallahassee
Jackson State - Jackson
UAPB - Pine Bluff
Southern U. Batan rougue
Texas Southern - Houston
ACU - Abilene
UTRGV - Edinburg
Utah Tech - St. George
Delaware - Newark
North Carolina A&T - Greensboro
Towson - Towson
Stony Brook - Stony Brook
Albany - Albany
Richmond - Richmond
Villanova - Villanova
Fordham - Bronx
Georgetown - DC


I took some of the schools in large populated areas. They do add value if you think about it. The Big 2 would hurt all the other schools of communities big time.
08-08-2022 03:49 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DawgNBama Offline
the Rush Limbaugh of CSNBBS
*

Posts: 5,720
Joined: Sep 2002
Reputation: 222
I Root For: conservativism/MAGA
Location: US
Post: #105
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
ACC Brands left to be taken and assuming 12 are needed for dissolution:

From the ACC:
Florida State / 10th nationally in Revenue / 2nd in the ACC in value added
Clemson / 26th nationally in Revenue / 1st in the ACC in value added
Louisville / 15th nationally in Revenue / 7th in the ACC in value added
Miami / 29th nationally in Revenue / 5th in the ACC in value added
North Carolina / 35th nationally in Revenue / 8th in the ACC in value added
Virginia Tech / 46th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the ACC in value added
N.C. State / 56th nationally in Revenue / 6th in the ACC in value added
Georgia Tech / 60th nationally in Revenue / 4th in the ACC in value added
Virginia / 36th nationally in Revenue / 9th in the ACC in value added
Syracuse / 59th nationally in Revenue / 10th in the ACC in value added
Pittsburgh / 45th nationally in Revenue / 11th in the ACC in value added
Boston College / 57th nationally in Revenue / 12th in the ACC in value added
Wake Forest / 61st nationally in Revenue / 13th in the ACC in value added
Duke / 33rd nationally in Revenue / 14th in the ACC in value added
*** Notre Dame is the Star brand and greatest value and counts in dissolution***

If adjusted for basketball value added:
Louisville is 1st
Florida State 2nd
Clemson 3rd
Virginia Tech 4th
North Carolina is 5th
Syracuse is 6th
Duke is 7th
N.C. State 8th
Georgia Tech 9th
Miami 10th
Virginia 11th
Pittsburgh 12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College is 14th

B12 remaining schools of interest:

Kansas / 34th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the B12 when adjusted for basketball with a significant gap between 3rd and 4th.

*** If Kansas was adjusted for basketball valuation and placed in the ACC here is where they would stand: 5th in Revenue / 1st in value added.

PAC school are limited to just the Big 10.




Market additions left to be taken:

Georgia Tech / Atlanta
Miami / Miami (the greater region)
Texas Christian / DFW
Florida State (general state coverage)
North Carolina (general state coverage)
Virginia Tech / Virginia (general state coverage)
Syracuse (general state coverage)
Boston College (Greater Boston)
Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh)


There's the info.

So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states
) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

JRsec, could you do something similar for the Pac-12 please??
08-08-2022 03:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Gitanole Offline
Bartender
*

Posts: 634
Joined: May 2016
Reputation: 125
I Root For: Florida State
Location: Speared Turf
Post: #106
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Interesting thought experiment. Let's throw the long ball.

If ND agrees to join the B1G, a mutually agreeable move of Missouri from SEC to the B1G is arranged. B1G gets all-AAU Missouri/Kansas matchups and more contiguous footprint westward while gaining ND and enabling ACC dissolution. Missouri gains border rivalries with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois. SEC agrees because 9 new schools help allay power concerns with B1G+ND. Migrating ACC schools keep familiar conference partners.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
Louisville replaces Missouri

To B1G
Notre Dame
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
[Kansas]
[Missouri]

Dissolution of ACC is safe at 12. B1G uses ACC additions to make more of mid-Atlantic/NY games.

_________

If ND remains independent, Missouri stays put and a more aggressive B1G expands farther south while still solidifying viewer interest in mid-Atlantic/NY.

To SEC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami or Duke
-----
Virginia Tech
Louisville
NC State
[Kansas or OK State]

To B1G
Syracuse
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke or Miami
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2022 09:48 PM by Gitanole.)
08-08-2022 09:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 30,358
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 4111
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #107
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Interesting thought experiment. Let's throw the long ball.

If ND agrees to join the B1G, a mutually agreeable move of Missouri from SEC to the B1G is arranged. B1G gets all-AAU Missouri/Kansas matchups and more contiguous footprint westward while enabling ACC dissolution. Missouri gains border rivalries with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois. SEC agrees because 9 new schools help allay power concerns with B1G+ND. Migrating ACC schools keep familiar conference partners.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
Louisville replaces Missouri

To B1G
Notre Dame
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
[Kansas]
[Missouri]

If B1G lands ND, dissolution of ACC is safe at 12. B1G uses ACC additions to make more of mid-Atlantic/NY games.

_________

If ND remains independent, a more aggressive B1G moves farther south while solidifying viewer interest in mid-Atlantic/NY.

To SEC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami or Duke
-----
Virginia Tech
Louisville
NC State
[Kansas or OK State]
-----

To B1G
Syracuse
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke or Miami

I have considered your option one and found merit in it.

Option #2 won't have a chance now. ESPN won't have any B1G interest in their new media deal. This means ESPN will likely pursue Big 12 and any PAC schools left after the B1G finishes their raid. There will be zero cooperation with the B1G now. ESPN will double down on SEC dominance. They could move market additions into the ACC and brands from the ACC into the SEC. They might also make a play early to wrap up Colorado, keep Kansas, and land the Arizona schools.

If ESPN goes this route they cut the B1G out of the South entirely, likely spend as is necessary to keep the Irish, and conduct their own playoffs. Doing this will only ratchet pressure up on Penn State, Ohio State, and maybe a couple more to think longer about their futures.

It starts with securing the B12.

When the Big Ten took so long on the media deal and took those 2 LA schools the thought that ESPN might not have an inclination to Big Ten rights crossed my mind and subsequent actions had an air of desperation. We'll see!
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2022 09:59 PM by JRsec.)
08-08-2022 09:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Gitanole Offline
Bartender
*

Posts: 634
Joined: May 2016
Reputation: 125
I Root For: Florida State
Location: Speared Turf
Post: #108
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Interesting thought experiment. Let's throw the long ball.

If ND agrees to join the B1G, a mutually agreeable move of Missouri from SEC to the B1G is arranged. B1G gets all-AAU Missouri/Kansas matchups and more contiguous footprint westward while enabling ACC dissolution. Missouri gains border rivalries with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois. SEC agrees because 9 new schools help allay power concerns with B1G+ND. Migrating ACC schools keep familiar conference partners.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
Louisville replaces Missouri

To B1G
Notre Dame
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
[Kansas]
[Missouri]

If B1G lands ND, dissolution of ACC is safe at 12. B1G uses ACC additions to make more of mid-Atlantic/NY games.

_________

If ND remains independent, a more aggressive B1G moves farther south while solidifying viewer interest in mid-Atlantic/NY.

To SEC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami or Duke
-----
Virginia Tech
Louisville
NC State
[Kansas or OK State]
-----

To B1G
Syracuse
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke or Miami

I have considered your option one and found merit in it.

Option #2 won't have a chance now. ESPN won't have any B1G interest in their new media deal. This means ESPN will likely pursue Big 12 and any PAC schools left after the B1G finishes their raid. There will be zero cooperation with the B1G now. ESPN will double down on SEC dominance. They could move market additions into the ACC and brands from the ACC into the SEC. They might also make a play early to wrap up Colorado, keep Kansas, and land the Arizona schools.

If ESPN goes this route they cut the B1G out of the South entirely, likely spend as is necessary to keep the Irish, and conduct their own playoffs. Doing this will only ratchet pressure up on Penn State, Ohio State, and maybe a couple more to think longer about their futures.

It starts with securing the B12.

When the Big Ten took so long on the media deal and took those 2 LA schools the thought that ESPN might not have an inclination to Big Ten rights crossed my mind and subsequent actions had an air of desperation. We'll see!

Yes, we're seeing some very interesting news. At first glance it doesn't bode well for the Super 2 playing a gentleman's game going forward.

I did figure that Option 2 entails more hostility between the Super 2 leagues, which means little could break that way before 2030. No way SECSPN sits quietly while the B1G runs away with so much. It can only happen LA-style: the schools and B1G arrange it on their own.

I'd like to hear more about how you see those 'futures' for Penn State and Ohio State falling out in that scenario you describe.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2022 02:41 AM by Gitanole.)
08-09-2022 02:26 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Skyhawk Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 714
Joined: Nov 2021
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Big10
Location:
Post: #109
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-08-2022 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  Interesting thought experiment. Let's throw the long ball.

If ND agrees to join the B1G, a mutually agreeable move of Missouri from SEC to the B1G is arranged. B1G gets all-AAU Missouri/Kansas matchups and more contiguous footprint westward while gaining ND and enabling ACC dissolution. Missouri gains border rivalries with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois. SEC agrees because 9 new schools help allay power concerns with B1G+ND. Migrating ACC schools keep familiar conference partners.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
Louisville replaces Missouri

To B1G
Notre Dame
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
[Kansas]
[Missouri]

Dissolution of ACC is safe at 12. B1G uses ACC additions to make more of mid-Atlantic/NY games.

_________

If ND remains independent, Missouri stays put and a more aggressive B1G expands farther south while still solidifying viewer interest in mid-Atlantic/NY.

To SEC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami or Duke
-----
Virginia Tech
Louisville
NC State
[Kansas or OK State]

To B1G
Syracuse
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke or Miami

I think a cross between those two is possible.

ND would like to stay independent in FB, so to get their vote, a new home for their olympic sports should be offered from somewhere. likely to the big east (Fox).

Big10 and sec fight over FSU. FSU seems to prefer SEC culture/fit, but would likely like B10 revenue. Same situation with NC, but to a lesser extent.

Sec gets both schools by 3 concessions:

1.) giving up on Miami and GA tech
2.) allowing Missouri to go to B10
3.) accepting WF (albeit likely at a reduced share) to get to the 12 votes, freeing up the B10's choices a bit.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Duke
Louisville
-----
WF replaces Missouri

To B1G
[Kansas]
[Missouri]
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
[Arizona State]

As an alternative to the WF concession, Fox and Espn get Pitt and Syracuse into the B12 (to get their vote), and SEC takes their choice of B12 school to replace MO. This would also presumably remove the need for ND's vote.

A second alternative, would be for the B10 to just take VA and CO instead of Miami and Georgia tech, freeing SEC to take them. This would still require the Pitt/Syracuse votes.

To SEC
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Duke
Louisville
-----
Georgia Tech replaces Missouri

To B1G
[Kansas]
[Missouri]
[Colorado]
Virginia
-----
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
[Arizona State]

Note that B10 is still helping out due to getting Missouri. If SEC went to 28, they could take WF and KS, and not include the B10 at all.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2022 05:23 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-09-2022 05:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GTFletch Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,188
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 117
I Root For: Georgia Tech
Location: Georgia
Post: #110
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Not sure I buy this as ESPN owns the ACC & SEC and doesn't make sense. It is just expansion fantasy, disappointed in Dan Patrick!
08-09-2022 06:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 30,358
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 4111
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #111
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-09-2022 02:26 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-08-2022 09:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  So which 8 should head to the SEC (whose preference is Deep South brands and new states) and which 4 should head to the B1G (whose preference is AAU and large markets)? And do you think if Kansas is taken dissolution is still safe at 11?

And has anyone considered that if the Big 10 ignores the ACC that the SEC can't take enough to dissolve them and would be forced to consider Kansas, Colorado for expansion?

Interesting thought experiment. Let's throw the long ball.

If ND agrees to join the B1G, a mutually agreeable move of Missouri from SEC to the B1G is arranged. B1G gets all-AAU Missouri/Kansas matchups and more contiguous footprint westward while enabling ACC dissolution. Missouri gains border rivalries with Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois. SEC agrees because 9 new schools help allay power concerns with B1G+ND. Migrating ACC schools keep familiar conference partners.

To SEC
Virginia
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State
----
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
Miami
-----
Louisville replaces Missouri

To B1G
Notre Dame
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
[Kansas]
[Missouri]

If B1G lands ND, dissolution of ACC is safe at 12. B1G uses ACC additions to make more of mid-Atlantic/NY games.

_________

If ND remains independent, a more aggressive B1G moves farther south while solidifying viewer interest in mid-Atlantic/NY.

To SEC
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami or Duke
-----
Virginia Tech
Louisville
NC State
[Kansas or OK State]
-----

To B1G
Syracuse
[Stanford]
[Oregon]
[Washington]
-----
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke or Miami

I have considered your option one and found merit in it.

Option #2 won't have a chance now. ESPN won't have any B1G interest in their new media deal. This means ESPN will likely pursue Big 12 and any PAC schools left after the B1G finishes their raid. There will be zero cooperation with the B1G now. ESPN will double down on SEC dominance. They could move market additions into the ACC and brands from the ACC into the SEC. They might also make a play early to wrap up Colorado, keep Kansas, and land the Arizona schools.

If ESPN goes this route they cut the B1G out of the South entirely, likely spend as is necessary to keep the Irish, and conduct their own playoffs. Doing this will only ratchet pressure up on Penn State, Ohio State, and maybe a couple more to think longer about their futures.

It starts with securing the B12.

When the Big Ten took so long on the media deal and took those 2 LA schools the thought that ESPN might not have an inclination to Big Ten rights crossed my mind and subsequent actions had an air of desperation. We'll see!

Yes, we're seeing some very interesting news. At first glance it doesn't bode well for the Super 2 playing a gentleman's game going forward.

I did figure that Option 2 entails more hostility between the Super 2 leagues, which means little could break that way before 2030. No way SECSPN sits quietly while the B1G runs away with so much. It can only happen LA-style: the schools and B1G arrange it on their own.

I'd like to hear more about how you see those 'futures' for Penn State and Ohio State falling out in that scenario you describe.

The PAC and ACC were the two most value stable conferences. They had the smallest gap in revenue valuations among the P5 from top to bottom positions. But they also had the least overall value. The SEC was third with a valuation 2.5 billion greater than the B1G. The Big 12 had a massive disparity between Texas / Oklahoma at 56.3% to West Virginia at 1.7%. But the B12 was clearly third in value. The second greatest revenue disparity and valuation disparity is in the Big 10 where Ohio State and Michigan are 36.7% of the total value and clearly the top 2 earners and Rutgers is 1.2%.

2 things determine vulnerability: Total valuation and large disparities in value. The less value you have overall the fewer targets you have of value overall. The original B12 had the greatest disparity in a conference significantly ahead of the ACC and PAC. They were raided first losing Colorado of lesser value to the PAC, Nebraska to the Big 10, and a large and medium value school to the SEC. In its next raid the Big 10 took a medium value ACC school and Big East Rutgers.

Now in this move the SEC takes the top B12 schools and the B1G takes from the PAC 12 their #3 & #4 value schools which were 21% of the value. Why? Nobody left in the B12 had enough value and the ACC was locked up under a GOR and the PAC wasn't and the schools were AAU and there are 7 AAU schools left in the PAC so more will come from there, likely #1 & #2 in PAC 12 value (Washington and Oregon) and #6 Stanford. Cal could come to clean up politics and because of academic standing. The SEC grew its power by taking 4 Big 12 schools. No school in the ACC was worth Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma's value.

When the PAC 12 raid is finished no school the B1G adds will be worth Texas, Oklahoma and A&M. Should Notre Dame remain independent and should ESPN shore up the ACC with Big 12 additions, the only schools left to move the needle for the SEC will be Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Michigan is more idealistic and Ohio State more pragmatic and sports culture based. Ohio State and Penn State (also sports culture based would give the SEC and ESPN 29.1% of the Big Ten's value and essentially complete a super 1 league should Michigan then be compelled to join to remain sports relevant. Notre Dame would then likely join as well. Now the SEC essentially becomes the NFL light and if USC and Washington joined you would have 32 schools encompassing the spectrum of the best venues and past champions. This is assuming the SEC has added 8 from the culturally similar ACC.

As long as ND remains neutral or allied with ESPN pulling Ohio State is at least possible. Valuation disparity in the Big Ten means the top 4 schools could all earn more in the SEC. It doesn't mean they want to, but that the option will be clear and tempting especially in light of the B1G's recruiting access issue.
08-09-2022 08:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GarnetAndBlue Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 318
Joined: Aug 2021
Reputation: 79
I Root For: FSU & Michigan
Location:
Post: #112
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-09-2022 08:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It doesn't mean they want to, but that the option will be clear and tempting especially in light of the B1G's recruiting access issue.

Given the level of this risk - the SEC having an end-game goal of becoming NFL Lite and destroying the B1G in doing so - shouldn't the acquisition of UNC/FSU/Clemson/UVA/Miami/etc. be the B1G's top priority? To the point of pursuing every avenue to blow up the GoR as soon as possible? The B1G is either working on a plan to do so...or doesn't believe the SEC is an existential threat to them.

This is the biggest and most interesting question to me in the entire realignment game.
08-09-2022 09:29 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 30,358
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 4111
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #113
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-09-2022 09:29 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-09-2022 08:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It doesn't mean they want to, but that the option will be clear and tempting especially in light of the B1G's recruiting access issue.

Given the level of this risk - the SEC having an end-game goal of becoming NFL Lite and destroying the B1G in doing so - shouldn't the acquisition of UNC/FSU/Clemson/UVA/Miami/etc. be the B1G's top priority? To the point of pursuing every avenue to blow up the GoR as soon as possible? The B1G is either working on a plan to do so...or doesn't believe the SEC is an existential threat to them.

This is the biggest and most interesting question to me in the entire realignment game.

Yes, but without ESPN having a stake in the B1G that just became a virtual impossibility until after 2030. In the meantime, ESPN can consolidate remaining PAC and B12 pieces and use some to prop up an ACC value which permits those key schools to shift to the SEC. And UVa isn't a key school as they are way down the value list. Florida State, Clemson, Viginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Louisville, N.C. State and likely Duke when hoops are included are ahead of Virginia.
08-09-2022 09:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
goodknightfl Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 19,448
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 375
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #114
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
This whole thread is nonsense, there has and will be no Conf working together for the good of all. It is simply dog eat dog, same is holding true with media giants. You would think we are living in a Banana republic that hires 87k new thugs to harass the public and raids the home of an ex president.
08-09-2022 09:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GarnetAndBlue Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 318
Joined: Aug 2021
Reputation: 79
I Root For: FSU & Michigan
Location:
Post: #115
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-09-2022 09:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-09-2022 09:29 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-09-2022 08:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It doesn't mean they want to, but that the option will be clear and tempting especially in light of the B1G's recruiting access issue.

Given the level of this risk - the SEC having an end-game goal of becoming NFL Lite and destroying the B1G in doing so - shouldn't the acquisition of UNC/FSU/Clemson/UVA/Miami/etc. be the B1G's top priority? To the point of pursuing every avenue to blow up the GoR as soon as possible? The B1G is either working on a plan to do so...or doesn't believe the SEC is an existential threat to them.

This is the biggest and most interesting question to me in the entire realignment game.

Yes, but without ESPN having a stake in the B1G that just became a virtual impossibility until after 2030. In the meantime, ESPN can consolidate remaining PAC and B12 pieces and use some to prop up an ACC value which permits those key schools to shift to the SEC. And UVa isn't a key school as they are way down the value list. Florida State, Clemson, Viginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Louisville, N.C. State and likely Duke when hoops are included are ahead of Virginia.

Makes sense. If I understand you correctly. The B1G can't/won't take enough ACC schools to neutralize/mitigate the GoR problem anytime soon. And the SEC will be proactive in taking the key ACC schools off the table and move them into the SEC sooner than later. Is that about right? Thanks...
08-09-2022 09:49 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GarnetAndBlue Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 318
Joined: Aug 2021
Reputation: 79
I Root For: FSU & Michigan
Location:
Post: #116
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-09-2022 09:44 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  This whole thread is nonsense, there has and will be no Conf working together for the good of all. It is simply dog eat dog, same is holding true with media giants. You would think we are living in a Banana republic that hires 87k new thugs to harass the public and raids the home of an ex president.

Have you read the "whole thread"? There are plenty of posts talking very clearly aboud dog-eat-dog...including SEC/B1G. And, yes, we are living in a Banana Republic and have been for some time now.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2022 09:58 AM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-09-2022 09:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2022 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2022 MyBB Group.