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FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #41
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

The official beer of Notre Dame football. Enjoy !!

(The Guinness in Ireland is way better than the Guinness in the USA. If you haven't been, there are some great pints and pubs waiting for you).
08-04-2022 10:56 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #42
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 10:56 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

The official beer of Notre Dame football. Enjoy !!

(The Guinness in Ireland is way better than the Guinness in the USA. If you haven't been, there are some great pints and pubs waiting for you).

That, Oktoberfest in Bavaria, trout fishing in New Zealand, and the Galapagos Islands are on my bucket list. Don't really give a hoot about England, have already been to Holland and the Middle East. I'd say Japan but it's a lower priority.
08-04-2022 11:01 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #43
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:37 PM)otown Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

You do realize about a week ago he was even talking about SEC considering taking UCF. Just let that sink in. He is all over the place and looking for attention.

Actually, what he said was that the SEC could go after Florida State, Clemson, and Miami...same story there.

He subsequently said if that happened then UCF, Georgia Tech, and Louisville could be on the table.

He just dropped off the last part this time.
08-04-2022 11:41 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #44
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:03 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

North Carolina does have a larger population, but UVA gets you into a large state, with good recruiting (Tidewater, DMV), and gives you DC, which is about 2hrs from Charlottesville. We’re good at baseball, excellent at basketball, and are a fairly easy weekend trip football trip in a scenic autumn destination. We’re Vanderbilt’s academics, at best, Sakerlina-esque in football, and the University is Thomas Jefferson’s Central Virginia version of Grove. You’ll like us.

That guy's a VT fan, but I do agree with you. I actually think Virginia would fit in fine...they'll just need somewhere to store a few Olympic sports.
08-04-2022 11:53 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #45
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Just a thought from reading this thread:

Before Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC, all you heard from the Big Ten fans and others is how that would never happen and the UT/OU combo was more likely to move to the Big Ten if they moved at all.

Then OU/UT actually move to the SEC and they still don't accept it...still looking for reasons why the Big Ten is more desirable.

One final note, you still have fans doubting that the SEC can pull key schools from the ACC. Always follow the track record.
08-04-2022 11:57 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #46
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
I mean----all those schools would be great fits---but I remain skeptical that ESPN has any interest in destroying their most lucrative and economical long term P5 TV deal. I have no doubt something like this is in the cards once the ACC GOR can be overcome---I just think thats not happening anytime soon. The SEC couldnt be in a better position----so its not like the SEC is under any pressure to rush a move. They can afford to be patient if it means they get the targets they desire.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 12:09 AM by Attackcoog.)
08-05-2022 12:08 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #47
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 11:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:56 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

The official beer of Notre Dame football. Enjoy !!

(The Guinness in Ireland is way better than the Guinness in the USA. If you haven't been, there are some great pints and pubs waiting for you).

That, Oktoberfest in Bavaria, trout fishing in New Zealand, and the Galapagos Islands are on my bucket list. Don't really give a hoot about England, have already been to Holland and the Middle East. I'd say Japan but it's a lower priority.

England, Scotland and Wales are fun places to drive around, especially Southwest England, Wales and the Highlands of Scotland.

Ireland tops them all, in my biased opinion, though the Highlands are a close second.
08-05-2022 05:32 AM
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Kyle Mack Offline
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Post: #48
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:27 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

So who is their 4th, I can't imagine the SEC only adding those schools and stopping at 19??

Edit; IMO it would be North Carolina, if they could pull them by themselves and the 3 schools mentioned that would be a nice 4-some

They should just go ahead and acquire the Jacksonville Jags.
08-05-2022 06:03 AM
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PeteTheChop Online
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Post: #49
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-05-2022 12:08 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I mean----all those schools would be great fits---but I remain skeptical that ESPN has any interest in destroying their most lucrative and economical long term P5 TV deal. I have no doubt something like this is in the cards once the ACC GOR can be overcome---I just think thats not happening anytime soon. The SEC couldnt be in a better position----so its not like the SEC is under any pressure to rush a move. They can afford to be patient if it means they get the targets they desire.

IMO, but just because the SEC and ESPN "can afford to be patient" doesn't mean those ACC schools with legitimate Super 2 options will do the same.
08-05-2022 06:03 AM
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Kyle Mack Offline
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Post: #50
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 11:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:56 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

The official beer of Notre Dame football. Enjoy !!

(The Guinness in Ireland is way better than the Guinness in the USA. If you haven't been, there are some great pints and pubs waiting for you).

That, Oktoberfest in Bavaria, trout fishing in New Zealand, and the Galapagos Islands are on my bucket list. Don't really give a hoot about England, have already been to Holland and the Middle East. I'd say Japan but it's a lower priority.
Top 9 Oktoberfest Celebrations Around the World
Munich, Germany. Oktoberfest Munich where people sit at large tables in the Hippodrom tent. ...
Cinncinnati, Ohio. Credit: Oktoberfest Zinzinnati. ...
Leavenworth, Washington. ...
Kitchener, Ontario. ...
Brisbane, Australia. ...
Santa Catarina, Brazil. ...
Mexico City, Mexico. ...
Denver, Colorado.
https://www.tripstodiscover.com/top-okto...the-world/

1. Munich, Germany
2. Blumenau, Brazil
3. Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
4. Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
5. Brisbane, Australia
6. Qingdao, China
7. Villa General Belgrano, Argentina
8. Yokohama, Japan
9. Johannesburg, South Africa
10. Hong Kong https://www.trip.com/blog/worlds-10-best...ebrations/
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 06:18 AM by Kyle Mack.)
08-05-2022 06:17 AM
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Comet Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
This is Dan Patrick, why is this a thread lol
08-05-2022 06:24 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-05-2022 06:24 AM)Comet Wrote:  This is Dan Patrick, why is this a thread lol
1. Because it is a message board.

2. The conversation was getting slow. (Same reason Patrick was yapping.)

3. "Because nobody is saying anything new here. We're just all saying the same thing over and over again with fierce conviction."

4. Because I invited it to be a catch all thread, "FWIW".

5. So idiots would ask, "Why the thread?" There I've made it inclusive for you, "Feel better now?"
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 06:32 AM by JRsec.)
08-05-2022 06:31 AM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #53
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
ESPN and The ACC are going to have a tough time allowing certain programs to jump to The SEC without giving other programs the same opportunity to jump to The Big Ten.

Theoretically ESPN owns the GOR for The ACC and The SEC. If they combined both conferences, I doubt there is little that could be done to stop them.
08-05-2022 07:16 AM
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Post: #54
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:03 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

North Carolina does have a larger population, but UVA gets you into a large state, with good recruiting (Tidewater, DMV), and gives you DC, which is about 2hrs from Charlottesville. We’re good at baseball, excellent at basketball, and are a fairly easy weekend trip football trip in a scenic autumn destination. We’re Vanderbilt’s academics, at best, Sakerlina-esque in football, and the University is Thomas Jefferson’s Central Virginia version of Grove. You’ll like us.

I Love Charlottesville. GO up 1-2 times a year to MTB with my little cousin.

If this whole SEC/Big 10 soul suck doesn't work out, i'll put in a good word with the SBC.
08-05-2022 07:22 AM
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ArmoredUpKnight Offline
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Post: #55
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
One of the Florida teams are going to go to the Big 10.

I doubt Florida, FSU, and Miami are all in the same conference.
08-05-2022 07:57 AM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-05-2022 07:57 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  One of the Florida teams are going to go to the Big 10.

I doubt Florida, FSU, and Miami are all in the same conference.

I don't think there's any chance that the SEC is going to let the Big 10 into FL. Florida is more than big enough to support 3 in one conference.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 08:15 AM by b2b.)
08-05-2022 08:15 AM
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Post: #57
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-05-2022 08:15 AM)b2b Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 07:57 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  One of the Florida teams are going to go to the Big 10.

I doubt Florida, FSU, and Miami are all in the same conference.

I don't think there's any chance that the SEC is going to let the Big 10 into FL. Florida is more than big enough to support 3 in one conference.

All three are in different parts of the state, I think.

That said, I agree in that I would be surprised if the Big10 isn't exploring the possibility of any of the/all of the 3
08-05-2022 08:55 AM
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Post: #58
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 11:57 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Just a thought from reading this thread:

Before Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC, all you heard from the Big Ten fans and others is how that would never happen and the UT/OU combo was more likely to move to the Big Ten if they moved at all.

Then OU/UT actually move to the SEC and they still don't accept it...still looking for reasons why the Big Ten is more desirable.

One final note, you still have fans doubting that the SEC can pull key schools from the ACC. Always follow the track record.

You also had people that thought the USC flight risk was low.


Fox has ESPN/Disney in a position in which they can make them spend money on ACC schools, or ACC the conference.

But I’d be careful if FOX. Disney spending money to make the SEC unequivocally the top conference in both sports is a Pyrrhic victory for Fox/BIG

Best case for ACC and Fox is a new ACC deal. Maybe they get a school or two, but it’ll be ones the SEC is okay with. Worst case is ESPN expedites making 24 school SEC, with 24 school ACC or Big 12, and separates with both postseasons
08-05-2022 08:55 AM
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Post: #59
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 08:56 PM)otown Wrote:  Honestly, B1G went all the ways to California for brand reach and dramatically increased their potential media deal. Why in the world would they not try to set up shop in Florida?

Honestly. If the GoR was not in play, there would be a slug fest between the SEC and B1G for FSU and Miami. Not that SEC necessarily wants them really bad, but because they want to block the B1G in the 3rd most populous state with fertile football recruiting grounds and an avid football fan state.

Which leads me to another crazy thought. If the ACC GoR is so unbreakable for over a decade and the B1G and SEC decide that there is no way around it...... does the B1G hold their nose on academics and take UCF and or USF to break into the state via the back door?

I get it, their academics are nowhere near AAU. However, with everything now being based about media money and brand expansion with regards to matchups and populations........ is it that crazy to think they consider it to break into Florida if FSU and Miami are unable to get out of the GoR?

I'm not wishcasting, just thinking outloud. Just a thought.

There is a huge Midwest population in Florida.

They waited over 20 years after adding Penn St. to get Nebraska. They aren't going to rush and just add any team. Going to Florida would be a strategic move, but adding FSU or Miami also adds value whereas those others would not.
08-05-2022 09:16 AM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

With those number$... Is the ESPN/ACC GoR truly the only thing preventing the B1G from not only gobbling up FSU/UNC/UVA...but also reeling in ND/UTx/OU/UW/UO and hitting 24? Is there any reason the B1G wouldn't want to make this move otherwise at this point? It would suddenly make the USC/UCLA add the most cunning chess move in sports history. Again, if not for the damn GoR.

Sorry sport but the SEC deal was over 1.1 billion minimum w/o Oklahoma and Texas included in the contracted amount. The value of those 2 is 3 times that of USC and UCLA. The Big 10 really isn't all that and a bag of chips too. The money will be very close one way or the other. It will boil down to regionality and championship brands in the SEC vs markets in the Big 10. You do realize that with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC and USC and UCLA in the Big 10 that the SEC has a 3.5-billion-dollar lead in value over the Big 10 and if you land Notre Dame, which is far from certain you will only make up 1 billion of that deficit?

It will boil down to what it always does when the money is the same. Playing neighbors and having compatible other sports like baseball, softball, gymnastics, etc. And with the cost of travel up you can double down on that.

It was like UT President Powers said, he didn't want to "be flying the women's softball team all over the midwest." And the Big 10 just isn't that good at a lot of the spring sports Texas is good at. And Texas doesn't have sports like wrestling and hockey.
08-05-2022 09:19 AM
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