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FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:32 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  IF this happens (this is all just theory/speculation as has been the vast majority of rumors) I could potentially/wouldn't mind seeing this:

-ACC adds WVU, CINCY and UCF to replace Miami, FSU and Clemson.
-To regain as much of the Florida market they would add USF. Then could add one of the following schools:
FAU, UCONN, Memphis (ND would probably be impossible to get as a full member if they lose all 3).

Would create a 16 team ACC:

NORTH: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Cincy
STATES:(OH, PA, MA, NY)

COMMONWEALTH: VA, VT, WV, Louisville
STATES:(VA, WV, KY)

CAROLINAS: UNC, Duke, WF, NC-State
STATES:(NC)

SOUTH: USF, UCF, GT, Memphis
STATES:(FL, GA, TN)

-Big12 backfill their departures with Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah. To get to 16 teams they could add:
Oregon, Washington, SDSU

Would create a 16 BIG12:

NORTHWEST: UW, Oregon, Utah, BYU
STATES:(WA, OR, UT)

SOUTHWEST: AZ, SDSU, ASU, TTU
STATES:(AZ, CA, TX)

NORTHEAST: ISU, Colorado, KSU, Kansas
STATES:(IA, CO, KS)

SOUTHEAST: Baylor, TCU, Houston, OSU
STATES:(TX, OK)

This is what I think as well. The SEC will go to 20. There timetable isn’t dependent on anything the B1G does or doesn’t do or when they do it. The B1G will go to twenty as well. With or without Notre Dame.
08-04-2022 08:45 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

With those number$... Is the ESPN/ACC GoR truly the only thing preventing the B1G from not only gobbling up FSU/UNC/UVA...but also reeling in ND/UTx/OU/UW/UO and hitting 24? Is there any reason the B1G wouldn't want to make this move otherwise at this point? It would suddenly make the USC/UCLA add the most cunning chess move in sports history. A vice formed around the SEC from not only the North, but the East and West. And they could reinforce it further with a secondary round, if needed. Again, if not for the damn GoR. Okay...I'm taking my tinfoil hat off now.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 08:53 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
08-04-2022 08:46 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #23
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Honestly, B1G went all the ways to California for brand reach and dramatically increased their potential media deal. Why in the world would they not try to set up shop in Florida?

Honestly. If the GoR was not in play, there would be a slug fest between the SEC and B1G for FSU and Miami. Not that SEC necessarily wants them really bad, but because they want to block the B1G in the 3rd most populous state with fertile football recruiting grounds and an avid football fan state.

Which leads me to another crazy thought. If the ACC GoR is so unbreakable for over a decade and the B1G and SEC decide that there is no way around it...... does the B1G hold their nose on academics and take UCF and or USF to break into the state via the back door?

I get it, their academics are nowhere near AAU. However, with everything now being based about media money and brand expansion with regards to matchups and populations........ is it that crazy to think they consider it to break into Florida if FSU and Miami are unable to get out of the GoR?

I'm not wishcasting, just thinking outloud. Just a thought.

There is a huge Midwest population in Florida.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 08:59 PM by otown.)
08-04-2022 08:56 PM
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RE: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

Yes I've seen you spout that theory, as well as the one where the P2 are going to break away by themselves unless they get the lion's share of the new CFP payouts. I'm equally dubious of both.
08-04-2022 09:01 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 08:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

With those number$... Is the ESPN/ACC GoR truly the only thing preventing the B1G from not only gobbling up FSU/UNC/UVA...but also reeling in ND/UTx/OU/UW/UO and hitting 24? Is there any reason the B1G wouldn't want to make this move otherwise at this point? It would suddenly make the USC/UCLA add the most cunning chess move in sports history. Again, if not for the damn GoR.

Sorry sport but the SEC deal was over 1.1 billion minimum w/o Oklahoma and Texas included in the contracted amount. The value of those 2 is 3 times that of USC and UCLA. The Big 10 really isn't all that and a bag of chips too. The money will be very close one way or the other. It will boil down to regionality and championship brands in the SEC vs markets in the Big 10. You do realize that with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC and USC and UCLA in the Big 10 that the SEC has a 3.5-billion-dollar lead in value over the Big 10 and if you land Notre Dame, which is far from certain you will only make up 1 billion of that deficit?

It will boil down to what it always does when the money is the same. Playing neighbors and having compatible other sports like baseball, softball, gymnastics, etc. And with the cost of travel up you can double down on that.
08-04-2022 09:03 PM
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Post: #26
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

North Carolina does have a larger population, but UVA gets you into a large state, with good recruiting (Tidewater, DMV), and gives you DC, which is about 2hrs from Charlottesville. We’re good at baseball, excellent at basketball, and are a fairly easy weekend trip football trip in a scenic autumn destination. We’re Vanderbilt’s academics, at best, Sakerlina-esque in football, and the University is Thomas Jefferson’s Central Virginia version of Grove. You’ll like us.
08-04-2022 09:03 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

With those number$... Is the ESPN/ACC GoR truly the only thing preventing the B1G from not only gobbling up FSU/UNC/UVA...but also reeling in ND/UTx/OU/UW/UO and hitting 24? Is there any reason the B1G wouldn't want to make this move otherwise at this point? It would suddenly make the USC/UCLA add the most cunning chess move in sports history. Again, if not for the damn GoR.

Sorry sport but the SEC deal was over 1.1 billion minimum w/o Oklahoma and Texas included in the contracted amount. The value of those 2 is 3 times that of USC and UCLA. The Big 10 really isn't all that and a bag of chips too. The money will be very close one way or the other. It will boil down to regionality and championship brands in the SEC vs markets in the Big 10. You do realize that with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC and USC and UCLA in the Big 10 that the SEC has a 3.5-billion-dollar lead in value over the Big 10 and if you land Notre Dame, which is far from certain you will only make up 1 billion of that deficit?

It will boil down to what it always does when the money is the same. Playing neighbors and having compatible other sports like baseball, softball, gymnastics, etc. And with the cost of travel up you can double down on that.

But IF the GoR is vulnerable...is the UTx/OU deal with the SEC inked and sealed? No chance that USC/UCLA was a bigger move than any of us saw?
08-04-2022 09:08 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:08 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:59 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  It's no longer about who the B1G and SEC want, but rather what new additions will ESPN and Fox (and whoever) pay for. The networks are doing this to make money after all. Each new school going forward will cost them around a billion dollars over a decade. I think a lot of people and journalists still underestimate just how high a bar that will be going forward. Does Fox *really* want UVA, or do they want a billion more dollars to return to shareholders or invest in other ways?

What programs does this board actually think the networks will shell out that kind of money for? I would say only 1 definite, maybe 2:

- FSU: The one program I think you can make a convincing argument for. Florida is big enough to support 2 schools, and would be the biggest brand with ND off the board.

- UNC: Probably. They're a national brand in a large state, have a big in-state following, the Raleigh/Charlotte markets combined are about the same as Atlanta. I used to think UNC would never leave Duke, but I think those romantic ideals are over with the money involved now. And it's virgin territory which will raise the value.

- Clemson: Not the slam dunk everyone seems to think IMO. A 2nd school in a smaller state that has already been monetized by the SEC in most ways that matter. Clemson's value would be incremental, better ratings from better matchups. But $80-100M per year is a LOT of incremental value. And will Clemson be able to sustain their success post-Dabo? I'm not completely convinced ESPN would give them that $100M.

- UVA: UVA is not the national sports brand that UNC is, and VA is about 20% smaller than NC. Great academic reputation and one of the top schools for olympic sports, but in a football-driven world I'm not sure either network would pay full fare for them. Is UVA vs [whoever] a compelling SEC matchup?

- Miami: I don't think the SEC is an option. Don't think the SEC wants 3 FL schools, and they would choose FSU first. Plus, a small private school that largely has a Northeast identity. Definitely don't see ESPN giving them pro rata.

- Oregon/UW - If Fox doesn't think they break even, I doubt ESPN will.
---
That's it. I don't think any of the other programs even have an argument that ESPN might give up that billion dollars for them.

I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

With those number$... Is the ESPN/ACC GoR truly the only thing preventing the B1G from not only gobbling up FSU/UNC/UVA...but also reeling in ND/UTx/OU/UW/UO and hitting 24? Is there any reason the B1G wouldn't want to make this move otherwise at this point? It would suddenly make the USC/UCLA add the most cunning chess move in sports history. Again, if not for the damn GoR.

Sorry sport but the SEC deal was over 1.1 billion minimum w/o Oklahoma and Texas included in the contracted amount. The value of those 2 is 3 times that of USC and UCLA. The Big 10 really isn't all that and a bag of chips too. The money will be very close one way or the other. It will boil down to regionality and championship brands in the SEC vs markets in the Big 10. You do realize that with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC and USC and UCLA in the Big 10 that the SEC has a 3.5-billion-dollar lead in value over the Big 10 and if you land Notre Dame, which is far from certain you will only make up 1 billion of that deficit?

It will boil down to what it always does when the money is the same. Playing neighbors and having compatible other sports like baseball, softball, gymnastics, etc. And with the cost of travel up you can double down on that.

But IF the GoR is vulnerable...is the UTx/OU deal with the SEC inked and sealed? No chance that USC/UCLA was a bigger move than any of us saw?

When accepted contracts were signed. The same is true of USC/UCLA. Those deals are completed. OU and UT officially joined after the SEC's new T1 was signed for 14 schools. The networks are setting this up to be equally funded to aid competitiveness, scheduled so access to all regions, including those heavy in recruits can be accessed by all. They want an NFL model for the upper tier. They will keep regionality for rivalries. SEC and Big Ten names will be kept to sell the rivalry but it will essentially function as one big league.
08-04-2022 09:16 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 07:32 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  IF this happens (this is all just theory/speculation as has been the vast majority of rumors) I could potentially/wouldn't mind seeing this:

-ACC adds WVU, CINCY and UCF to replace Miami, FSU and Clemson.
-To regain as much of the Florida market they would add USF. Then could add one of the following schools:
FAU, UCONN, Memphis (ND would probably be impossible to get as a full member if they lose all 3).

Would create a 16 team ACC:

NORTH: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Cincy
STATES:(OH, PA, MA, NY)

COMMONWEALTH: VA, VT, WV, Louisville
STATES:(VA, WV, KY)

CAROLINAS: UNC, Duke, WF, NC-State
STATES:(NC)

SOUTH: USF, UCF, GT, Memphis
STATES:(FL, GA, TN)

-Big12 backfill their departures with Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah. To get to 16 teams they could add:
Oregon, Washington, SDSU

Would create a 16 BIG12:

NORTHWEST: UW, Oregon, Utah, BYU
STATES:(WA, OR, UT)

SOUTHWEST: AZ, SDSU, ASU, TTU
STATES:(AZ, CA, TX)

NORTHEAST: ISU, Colorado, KSU, Kansas
STATES:(IA, CO, KS)

SOUTHEAST: Baylor, TCU, Houston, OSU
STATES:(TX, OK)

Assuming the B1G takes Oregon & Washington, you could substitute Oregon State and Washington State for Oregon and Washington on the Big 12.
08-04-2022 09:20 PM
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:01 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

Yes I've seen you spout that theory, as well as the one where the P2 are going to break away by themselves unless they get the lion's share of the new CFP payouts. I'm equally dubious of both.

How so?

This is corporate now. You think the networks are going to stop aggregating and consolidating the board to their favor, because a Clemson or Miami fall short of a AAV by $10 million if in the SEC?

At this point they may not even need to, but in reality, the networks will pass down the macro benefits needed to make it happen.

Granted, ESPN already has the ACC schools, but the risk is not zero that that could change without action being taken. The marginal increase in costs in moving not worth the risks.

The SEC (ESPN) in particular is building tremendous enterprise value in adding the top ACC schools- FSU, Miami, Clemson all have multiple titles in modern history. It is reasonable to think it would give whichever provider owns the SEC a near monopoly on championship level programs, with only OSU and USC as outside of the SEC. If they started their own post-season, it would be the legitimate national championship. It is not inconceivable that doing so would shake free USC and OSU, or get ND.

Ideally ESPN could keep UNC, Duke, UVa, in ACC imo, adding KU, then moving those schools when CBB can be better monetized, but moving all 4 now could be justified as an investment in being able to get the CBB basketball postseason tournament in the hands of ESPN.

Do nothing, and FOX is after the same thing. Or worse, a new entrant gets a foothold. Combine the SEC basketball and football hegemony in a very long GOR, and now you're talking Disney securing itself in one of the last providers of inventory. If Apple wants in, they'd need to nearly buy ESPN from Disney.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 09:28 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-04-2022 09:22 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #31
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Bumping Vandy is a pretty sensible option if you can pay them royalties or something. That opens the door for UNC NC State and UVa along with FSU/Clemson.

But Miami to the SEC is farcical clickbait. It's more likely Vandy is relegated to the ACC to accommodate additional ACC schools besides Miami than it is Miami getting an invite outright. Dan Patrick is desperate for clicks.

I do like the concept of East coast private/semi private FBS:

BC Cuse Miami Pitt Vandy Duke WF Temple

Left over conference:

VaTech UCF USF UC UL WVU ECU Memphis

Then we can have a PAC 12 Big 12 debate for second tier east coast schools... but I digress.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 09:30 PM by RUScarlets.)
08-04-2022 09:29 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #32
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:01 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I've explained it many times already. They aren't looking at individual values. The are looking at brand reach, key markets, and past and present champions and calculating how many schools they need for a set amount of inventory. Research was done 3 years ago to determine what such a package would be worth. The amount they were willing to spend and make the % of ROI needed was 48 schools at 110 million. If FOX and ESPN split the endeavor at 100 million per school each spends 2.4 billion with a 1 billion dollar return on investment on just the postseason. Their normal profit for regular season games rises by 1/3rd without 4 dog games per school.

If this comes about, we could see 12 regular season games all P schools, one preseason game replacing Spring games, and a 16-team playoff. And that's not even counting overhead saved by elimination of redundant conference overheads and contracting & management costs.

Yes I've seen you spout that theory, as well as the one where the P2 are going to break away by themselves unless they get the lion's share of the new CFP payouts. I'm equally dubious of both.

I don't think anyone cares how dubious you are or aren't. The PAC and B12 just got nuked, the revenue gap between the SEC/B1G and the ACC will be more than double your media revenue, and you are dubious? You are watching it happen and still are in denial. Well at least you have plenty of company.

It's not a theory any longer when a P5 just jumped to a Super 2, a P1, and 2 sub P's because 56% of the value of one was taken, 21% of the value of another is taken along with their most important market, and almost 30% more of their value is on the wish list. The B12 and PAC 12 aren't re-attaining the status they lost.

ESPN can manage whatever they wish as long as the ACC contract is fulfilled financially, and no access is lost to the post season. No real damage = no damages. ESPN determines if their rights have been harmed or not. If they make more with them in one place or another, and it's their choice, then they aren't harmed either.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 09:41 PM by JRsec.)
08-04-2022 09:39 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #33
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:27 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

So who is their 4th, I can't imagine the SEC only adding those schools and stopping at 19??

Edit; IMO it would be North Carolina, if they could pull them by themselves and the 3 schools mentioned that would be a nice 4-some

The 4 schools that I saw that the SEC are interested in are Florida State, Clemson, UNC and Virginia. Miami is not even on the list. Miami have lost all that blue blood institution since their last championship, and their lackluster fan support with a stadium at times less than half empty.
08-04-2022 09:50 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #34
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.
08-04-2022 09:57 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #35
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!
08-04-2022 10:00 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #36
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

I’m partial to Beamish! Hard to find around here though.
08-04-2022 10:13 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #37
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 10:13 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  https://thespun.com/more/topstories/dan-...r-programs

Let the full range of emotional spew begin!

Cool. My neighbor Pat Daniel thinks light beer tastes great.

Hmm, he must like chlorine treated stagnant water! I've gone through all iterations of dark beer and have settled in my dotage on Guinness, as long as it's fresh!

I’m partial to Beamish! Hard to find around here though.

I'll have to look for it as it's one I've never tried. For decades a fresh German Bock was what I preferred. I never really matched them with micro brews whether lagers or stout. When I find a watering hole which turns a keg of Guiness quickly that's where I go.
08-04-2022 10:22 PM
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Jericho Offline
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Post: #38
RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs

Me: I think Dan Patrick is talking out of his ass
08-04-2022 10:25 PM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
I think the SEC will add Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Oklahoma State to get to their final goal of 24.

Big Ten is Notre Dame for 17 and I’m not sure who the last 7 schools are some combo of Big 12/PAC12/ACC schools
08-04-2022 10:28 PM
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Jericho Offline
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RE: FWIW: Dan Patrick Thinks If ND Heads to B1G the SEC Will Go After 3 Major Programs
(08-04-2022 10:28 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  I think the SEC will add Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Oklahoma State to get to their final goal of 24.

Big Ten is Notre Dame for 17 and I’m not sure who the last 7 schools are some combo of Big 12/PAC12/ACC schools

Where's you'd get this magic number of 24 from? Did both the SEC and Big 10 lose some bet that now mandates they both must take 24 schools?
08-04-2022 10:31 PM
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