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Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
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micahandme Offline
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Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
I was convinced that the Big Ten was supersizing with 20...but signs are pointing to staying at 16 for at least 6 more years (if not 10-11...until the ACC GOR ends).

I've heard mention of 3-6-6 scheduling for the league now...no divisions...three fixed rivals. Play everybody else in the league home-away every four years.

It's kind of easy to look around the current 14 teams and see 3 fixed rivals...but what will the league do with UCLA and USC?

Who would they want to match up with them on a yearly basis?
--Nebraska would LOVE to get a yearly game with UCLA...as they did once have a SoCal pipeline. And Nebraska is not a "traditional" Big Ten team.
--For the other UCLA opponent though? And for USC's other two?

Of course, TV would love USC/Ohio State every year...or UCLA/Michigan. But does that really match "tradition." There are plenty of teams who have played Ohio State every year for many, many decades...and now they see them only 2 of 4 years?

And how about "fairness" when it comes to divisionless league championship games? (Rutgers gets, let's say, Indiana and Maryland ever year...while OSU gets Michigan and USC ever year?)

Interested in everyone's thoughts...
08-04-2022 12:44 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 12:44 AM)micahandme Wrote:  I was convinced that the Big Ten was supersizing with 20...but signs are pointing to staying at 16 for at least 6 more years (if not 10-11...until the ACC GOR ends).

I've heard mention of 3-6-6 scheduling for the league now...no divisions...three fixed rivals. Play everybody else in the league home-away every four years.

It's kind of easy to look around the current 14 teams and see 3 fixed rivals...but what will the league do with UCLA and USC?

Who would they want to match up with them on a yearly basis?
--Nebraska would LOVE to get a yearly game with UCLA...as they did once have a SoCal pipeline. And Nebraska is not a "traditional" Big Ten team.
--For the other UCLA opponent though? And for USC's other two?

Of course, TV would love USC/Ohio State every year...or UCLA/Michigan. But does that really match "tradition." There are plenty of teams who have played Ohio State every year for many, many decades...and now they see them only 2 of 4 years?

And how about "fairness" when it comes to divisionless league championship games? (Rutgers gets, let's say, Indiana and Maryland ever year...while OSU gets Michigan and USC ever year?)

Interested in everyone's thoughts...

This is why conferences seem to tend to like a minimum of 4 or 6 schools to a region - it helps with scheduling - especially for non fb/bb sports.

Which is why it's likely the Big10 takes 2 more schools from the region. I think the "slowdown" at the moment is merely due to the cal/ucla mess - that likely needs to get resolved first.

Add 2 more schools from the region (doesn't really matter which for the premise of this thread) and you have your 3 fixed rivals.

I suppose that may turn it to a 3-7-7, but I would imagine that's do-able.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 01:33 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-04-2022 01:31 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
I suspect there are other traditional Big Ten schools who would like a yearly game against an LA team. As mentioned, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland are all likely to pickup an annual game vs. the newcomers. I’d also not be surprised if they try and shoehorn USC into an annual game against a traditional power (Nebraska may fit the bill here).

But, again, don’t be surprised if you see a team like Michigan State or Purdue or Wisconsin petition to play USC or UCLA every year. The recruiting opportunity is enough to trade for a third-best midwestern rival.
08-04-2022 04:35 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
When doing my 3-6-6, I decided on...

USC vs. Northwestern - Two private schools
USC vs. Michigan State - Trojans vs. Spartans
UCLA vs. Purdue - I know wrong sport but John Wooden connection
UCLA vs. Nebraska - Send Nebraska out west, closer trip for UCLA, Nebraska has fewer connections to the original Big Ten members
08-04-2022 05:56 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
UCLA OSU protected
USC UM protected

PSU and MSU may also be permanently sent west, although NWU and UN are more likely to be fixed with their west coast partners because of location.
08-04-2022 06:07 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
If 3 permanent rivals is the magic number, I’d be shocked if Ohio St and Michigan weren’t among the 4 existing members to get a rivalry with one of the west coast schools.
08-04-2022 08:11 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
I think 16 is the maximum number for no divisions or a way (roundabout or not) for conference semi-finals, so I agree 3-6-6 is most likely and am happy for that.

They will want to give both USC and UCLA one locked pairing (outside each other) they are happy with and the other might be random to fill out (same is true in smaller degrees throughout conference). The wild card here though is if they want to make the locked opponents somewhat more competitively even. Making this, I wasn't sure if the conference would be OK with locking Ohio State with Michigan, Penn State, and USC or locking Michigan with Ohio State, USC, and Michigan State. I think the conference will very much like the idea of sending one of Ohio State and Michigan to LA every other year, but I also think they can balance the schedules a bit better by sending Nebraska, which gives the traditional Cornhuskers access to some stronger recruiting ground (something they will benefit more than others from) and still give a big name.

I started coming up with sample outlines for the different possibilities but will have to post later.
08-04-2022 08:54 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 06:07 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UCLA OSU protected
USC UM protected


PSU and MSU may also be permanently sent west, although NWU and UN are more likely to be fixed with their west coast partners because of location.

Absolutely.

Perhaps Nebraska and Wisconsin each get one of CA schools as well. Big 10 will want to maximize games between those 2 and their higher interest schools. PSU will be paired with tOSU, MD and RU, so they won't play either on a fixed basis.
08-04-2022 09:29 AM
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GoBuckeyes1047 Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 08:54 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think 16 is the maximum number for no divisions or a way (roundabout or not) for conference semi-finals, so I agree 3-6-6 is most likely and am happy for that.

They will want to give both USC and UCLA one locked pairing (outside each other) they are happy with and the other might be random to fill out (same is true in smaller degrees throughout conference). The wild card here though is if they want to make the locked opponents somewhat more competitively even. Making this, I wasn't sure if the conference would be OK with locking Ohio State with Michigan, Penn State, and USC or locking Michigan with Ohio State, USC, and Michigan State. I think the conference will very much like the idea of sending one of Ohio State and Michigan to LA every other year, but I also think they can balance the schedules a bit better by sending Nebraska, which gives the traditional Cornhuskers access to some stronger recruiting ground (something they will benefit more than others from) and still give a big name.

I started coming up with samfle outlines for the different possibilities but will have to post later.

If ND doesn't come, then sure, we can stay at 16 playing 3 rivals annually and everyone else every other year. I'm okay with that while we wait on ND, but if ND decides they're willing to join, then we aren't telling them no, we're expanding, but is it 18 or 20 teams? And then is it 9 or 10 conference games?

If 18 and 9, I think you go with 5-4-4-4.
If 18 and 10, I agree with skyhawk about 3-7-7.

If 20 and 9, then it's obviously 4-5-5-5 (4 teams annually and rotate everyone else H&H every 6 years)
If 20 and 10, then it's the same 4 protected rivals, but rotate everyone else H&H every 5 years instead (4-6-6-6-6-6)

Alternatively if 20 and 10, you use 4-5-5-5 and use the 10th conference game for conference semis for the top 4, maybe a game for 5th vs. 6th for a playoff spot or Citrus bowl bid, and allow 5-20 or 7-20 to play missed rivalries if able.

20 and 10 is probably my favorite format if the B1G is going to expand outside of adding ND only and using a 4-6-6 format (17 teams, 10 conference games, and 4 protected rivals annually), but everyone hates odd numbers lol
08-04-2022 09:30 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 09:30 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 08:54 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think 16 is the maximum number for no divisions or a way (roundabout or not) for conference semi-finals, so I agree 3-6-6 is most likely and am happy for that.

They will want to give both USC and UCLA one locked pairing (outside each other) they are happy with and the other might be random to fill out (same is true in smaller degrees throughout conference). The wild card here though is if they want to make the locked opponents somewhat more competitively even. Making this, I wasn't sure if the conference would be OK with locking Ohio State with Michigan, Penn State, and USC or locking Michigan with Ohio State, USC, and Michigan State. I think the conference will very much like the idea of sending one of Ohio State and Michigan to LA every other year, but I also think they can balance the schedules a bit better by sending Nebraska, which gives the traditional Cornhuskers access to some stronger recruiting ground (something they will benefit more than others from) and still give a big name.

I started coming up with samfle outlines for the different possibilities but will have to post later.

If ND doesn't come, then sure, we can stay at 16 playing 3 rivals annually and everyone else every other year. I'm okay with that while we wait on ND, but if ND decides they're willing to join, then we aren't telling them no, we're expanding, but is it 18 or 20 teams? And then is it 9 or 10 conference games?

If 18 and 9, I think you go with 5-4-4-4.
If 18 and 10, I agree with skyhawk about 3-7-7.

If 20 and 9, then it's obviously 4-5-5-5 (4 teams annually and rotate everyone else H&H every 6 years)
If 20 and 10, then it's the same 4 protected rivals, but rotate everyone else H&H every 5 years instead (4-6-6-6-6-6)

Alternatively if 20 and 10, you use 4-5-5-5 and use the 10th conference game for conference semis for the top 4, maybe a game for 5th vs. 6th for a playoff spot or Citrus bowl bid, and allow 5-20 or 7-20 to play missed rivalries if able.

20 and 10 is probably my favorite format if the B1G is going to expand outside of adding ND only and using a 4-6-6 format (17 teams, 10 conference games, and 4 protected rivals annually), but everyone hates odd numbers lol

Right now the Big 10 schools play the other division (except IU/PU who have a fixed rivalry) 6 out of 14 years. With 18 and a 3-6, you still get those other 14 teams six times in 14 years.
08-04-2022 09:36 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
The whole reason I wanted to get rid of divisions was to play traditional opponents in the west more. On a personal level, I hope 16 is it for awhile (although my guess is only till next contract).

Once you get past 16 though, I think they will find a way for defacto semi-finals (leave Thanksgiving weekend open and schedule top 4 against each other week before) or go back to divisions (rotating with pods). I just can't see them determing top 2 for a conference championship game while everyone is missing close to half or more of the conference.
08-04-2022 10:31 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
Me, I like to zig when everybody else zags.
EVerybody looks at adding USC and UCLA to the Big TEn and saying "regionalism, local rivalries don't matter."

I say, maybe not. they don't matter as much as 20 million people and 5 million TVs in the Los Angeles market, and the USC brand (and maybe complete control of the Rose Bowl instead of a 50-50 split with the PAC), but it means something. Wisconsin-Iowa still means something even if one team is looking at 6-6, Wisconsin-Purdue not as much.

So, assuming that 3-6-6 schedule, with 4 pod of 4.

Good old-fashioned intrastate and border-war rivalry pods for the old-school Big TEn members (including Nebraska, Penn STate much less so)

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State
Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska

And the odd-squad outlier pod: USC, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland.
08-04-2022 11:24 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 12:44 AM)micahandme Wrote:  I was convinced that the Big Ten was supersizing with 20...but signs are pointing to staying at 16 for at least 6 more years (if not 10-11...until the ACC GOR ends).

Curious: which ACC teams do you see as worth more than Washington & Oregon? or better yet, worth more than the $78M+ each Big Ten school will be getting from TV alone (est. > $100M total)?
08-04-2022 11:43 AM
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PeteTheChop Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 12:44 AM)micahandme Wrote:  I was convinced that the Big Ten was supersizing with 20...but signs are pointing to staying at 16 for at least 6 more years (if not 10-11...until the ACC GOR ends).

Signs?
08-04-2022 11:51 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 11:51 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:44 AM)micahandme Wrote:  I was convinced that the Big Ten was supersizing with 20...but signs are pointing to staying at 16 for at least 6 more years (if not 10-11...until the ACC GOR ends).

Signs?

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08-04-2022 11:53 AM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
Why do you need symmetrical pods? I'm sure there are permutations that allow the various existing Big Ten rivalries to continue, that allow USC and UCLA to play each other annually, and then simply schedule USC and UCLA another 8 Big Ten football games, perhaps even with a heavy lean towards Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.
08-04-2022 11:57 AM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 11:24 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Me, I like to zig when everybody else zags.
EVerybody looks at adding USC and UCLA to the Big TEn and saying "regionalism, local rivalries don't matter."

I say, maybe not. they don't matter as much as 20 million people and 5 million TVs in the Los Angeles market, and the USC brand (and maybe complete control of the Rose Bowl instead of a 50-50 split with the PAC), but it means something. Wisconsin-Iowa still means something even if one team is looking at 6-6, Wisconsin-Purdue not as much.

So, assuming that 3-6-6 schedule, with 4 pod of 4.

Good old-fashioned intrastate and border-war rivalry pods for the old-school Big TEn members (including Nebraska, Penn STate much less so)

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State
Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska

And the odd-squad outlier pod: USC, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland.

That makes too much sense to happen, but I would be all for this format as an OSU fan. The outlier pod could also be the recruiting pod or the B1G City pod.
08-04-2022 11:58 AM
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GoBuckeyes1047 Offline
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 10:31 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  The whole reason I wanted to get rid of divisions was to play traditional opponents in the west more. On a personal level, I hope 16 is it for awhile (although my guess is only till next contract).

Once you get past 16 though, I think they will find a way for defacto semi-finals (leave Thanksgiving weekend open and schedule top 4 against each other week before) or go back to divisions (rotating with pods). I just can't see them determing top 2 for a conference championship game while everyone is missing close to half or more of the conference.

Even if we add 2 and went to 10 conference games, I think we could get away with outthe use of semis using 3-7-7 if the scheduling is done correct. It would essentially be the equivalent of playing 8 division games and 2 out of division games (2 protected rivals). Same with 3-6-6 at 16 teams, but with 7 division games and 2 out of division games.
08-04-2022 12:05 PM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 11:58 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 11:24 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Me, I like to zig when everybody else zags.
EVerybody looks at adding USC and UCLA to the Big TEn and saying "regionalism, local rivalries don't matter."

I say, maybe not. they don't matter as much as 20 million people and 5 million TVs in the Los Angeles market, and the USC brand (and maybe complete control of the Rose Bowl instead of a 50-50 split with the PAC), but it means something. Wisconsin-Iowa still means something even if one team is looking at 6-6, Wisconsin-Purdue not as much.

So, assuming that 3-6-6 schedule, with 4 pod of 4.

Good old-fashioned intrastate and border-war rivalry pods for the old-school Big TEn members (including Nebraska, Penn STate much less so)

Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State
Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska

And the odd-squad outlier pod: USC, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland.

That makes too much sense to happen, but I would be all for this format as an OSU fan. The outlier pod could also be the recruiting pod or the B1G City pod.

It happening relies on those Indiana-Purdue and Minnesota-Iowa games having measureable value above an Indiana-Iowa game.

The "Group of Death" pod round-robin games are all great TV games.
The "west-of-I-39" pod should be quality TV as well.
The Indiana-Illinois pod is questionable, but I'm not sure there's a more attractive arrangement--maybe you just have those guys play each other on BTN and FS1 and not drag down the OTA ratings?

The odd-squad only has 1 reliably good TV game out of 4. But USC and UCLA already have big travel headaches, we can at least balance that with 2 annual cupcake conference games.
08-04-2022 12:09 PM
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RE: Assuming Big Ten Expansion is Over...scheduling in 2024
(08-04-2022 08:11 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If 3 permanent rivals is the magic number, I’d be shocked if Ohio St and Michigan weren’t among the 4 existing members to get a rivalry with one of the west coast schools.

I’d bet the house that if we go 3-6-6, then OSU’s protected rivals are Michigan, Penn State, and USC. Anything else is leaving too much money on the table.
08-04-2022 12:21 PM
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