RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
The theory is wrong.
I think short term value will win out for the remaining Pac-12 schools. They didn't want to pull in Houston, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas when they had the chance. Now those schools are likely off the table. Baylor and BYU two really strong possible adds were not even considered due to their honor codes and missions. Now the exit fee of the Big 12 is greater than any material advantage of moving to the Pac-12, and the questions of long term stability. None is likely to move. (Same for the Pac-12 to the Big 12.)
The question really revolves around the priorities of the remaining 10 schools. Kliavkoff wanted to improve the strategic position of the Pac-12 with expansion last year, but the priorities of the school leadership and ADs did not align, as they were more focused on return. Ultimately the valuation examination led USC to call the Big Ten, and now we are where we are.
But the same question applies today. The priority of Stanford, Oregon and Washington, maybe even Cal, is to get to the Big Ten by the next contract window (sooner if possible). They want to be as unencumbered as possible. They have to ask does expansion free them more or bind them more? And does it pinch their bottom line too much as the pour extra money in the program to try make a mark the next five years. Are the four corner schools also thinking about an escape plan as well? It does seem at least Arizona is uneasy. They will be asking the same questions.
Every idiot and media pundit (am I being redundant?) seems to think San Diego State is logical choice. But as Wilner points out the issue of not being able to issue PhDs and not having R1 status are seen as major problems. The small budget and media weakness of the school in LA are unstated but obvious issues. But getting as close as possible to LA and the counties surrounding it seem to be so imperative that it could override. That the Big 12 (info leaking like a sieve from there) is said to have interest in SDSU and Arizona as a pair suggests at least one Pac-12 school would be in favor of the Aztecs. Texas seems to be the consensus second target, with Houston, if they can wiggle out of their Big 12 commit, would be the top choice, with SMU emerging as the alternative.
The target list gets pretty scruffy after that. Schools in the MWC with similar or worse valuation as San Diego State, generally worse academics and far less attractive markets. Since it takes the votes of the Presidents, who only like sure things, you can effectively sink all of these. Note, Colorado State and Air Force actually hit most of the Presidential requirements, but like SMU and the Big 12, they are located in a market the Pac-12 already has with a better brand.
I sort of talked myself in going through this that logically UW, Stanford and Oregon may switch in favor on the thinking that more schools in the Pac-12 makes their exit in 4, 7 or 8 years more palatable, as the conference will survive. Once they are certain they are not going anywhere this cycle, they'll resign themselves to a GOR for the length of a short contract, and accept an exit fee. The exit fee part might be harder for Arizona and other four corners to accept, as it would not stop any of the coastal schools from joining the Big Ten, but it could make it expensive for them to jump to the Big 12. But Arizona, like the west coast schools, could well decide expansion is in their interest should they get a chance to move down the road. They could jump anyway simply because they expect a future raid, and in the grand scheme, 6 years keeping local rivals pales against decades of being adrift in a MWC+ type conference. Wazzu and Oregon State might be persuaded to expand because they have few choices. So controlling the quality of schools coming in by getting them now is in their long term best interest.
So I think 6 of the schools could easily be persuaded. CU, Utah, ASU and Cal are a little more difficult to read as far as priorities. But if two can be persuaded to back expansion then it's possible, provided it's no significant revenue hit. But if it's even $1M less per school then it's dead.
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A theory on Pac-12 expansion
