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A theory on Pac-12 expansion
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hk25 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

That is a failed logic, the pie absolutely gets bigger, just not $30M per team bigger. TV likely only adds $20-$30M to pie, so you expand by simply limiting new members payouts to what tv has added. Everybody wins, except maybe a couple of inflated PAC elitist egos, but after LA left those egos should already be popped.

Anyone who says adding teams doesn’t increase pie doesn’t understand the process, now if pie continues to be evenly split, slices are smaller, but no one expects G5 adds to get equal slice.
08-04-2022 09:09 AM
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johnintx Online
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Post: #22
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 07:20 AM)Realigned Wrote:  This is becoming a circular argument. If SDSU and SMU don’t being any additional revenue, then there’s no reason to bring them in. And to other’s point, SMU is behind at least UT, A&M and Tech, and probably TCU and Baylor in the DFW markets. The latter two will continue to be popular because they play local teams. SMU to PAC 12 will not have that.

SMU is behind four pro teams, Texas, OU, A&M, Tech, Baylor and TCU in its own market. And the Dallas Cowboys, in good years and in bad, are the 800 pound gorilla of DFW. Everyone is interested in the Cowboys, even at 27 years and counting since the last Super Bowl.

DFW is one market, but TCU doesn't draw much from the Dallas side of the Metroplex, and SMU doesn't draw much from the Fort Worth side. TCU has done a better job of building its market share over the last 10-20 years in Fort Worth and Tarrant County. Still, everything north and east of DFW airport is a very good market for SMU to develop...it still has the reputation of a rich man's school, though. They'll have to make people want to drive to Highland Park/University Park for games.

SMU would run to the new Pac, as it is a step up from the AAC. However, TCU and Baylor would definitely have an advantage over them due to playing local opponents. Still, SMU vs Arizona State or Stanford is more attractive to Dallas locals than SMU vs Rice or Tulane.

SMU's attractiveness stems from 1) their willingness to spend $$, 2) their location in Dallas and the accessibility of DFW airport, and 3) their availability-it's a lot easier to leave the AAC than the B12.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 11:19 AM by johnintx.)
08-04-2022 09:20 AM
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Owls9878 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?
What incentive do the current members have to spread the theoretical $300m pot over additional schools, who will dilute the amount of revenue received by existing members? Especially so given the dollars disparity the PAC will face relative to the SEC, BIG and ACC. If the new adds don’t bring incremental revenue to existing members, they have little incentive to expand.

Furthermore, I have a very hard time believing WSU and OSU would accept a reduced payout to subsidize new additions and existing members, nor do I think the PAC would force that upon them.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 09:48 AM by Owls9878.)
08-04-2022 09:47 AM
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Post: #24
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 07:32 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Is SMU merely being talked about because they appear more "available"?

Remember that the TX/OU and USC/UCLA moves apparently aren't til 2024.

At that point, most of the Big12 schools could potentially be "available"

they still have a 2-years-revenue exit fee
08-04-2022 09:50 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #25
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 09:50 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:32 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Is SMU merely being talked about because they appear more "available"?

Remember that the TX/OU and USC/UCLA moves apparently aren't til 2024.

At that point, most of the Big12 schools could potentially be "available"

they still have a 2-years-revenue exit fee

And right there is why we could presume that it's more likely to see PAC schools go to the B12, than the other way round...
08-04-2022 10:09 AM
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Aztecgolfer Offline
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Post: #26
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

Sept 3, Arizona plays SDSU @ SDSU with a noon EST start. It will be interesting to see what the TV numbers are.
08-04-2022 10:19 AM
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Jericho Offline
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Post: #27
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

And what does getting into SoCal and Texas get the PAC? Anything? A toaster?
08-04-2022 10:24 AM
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AztecEmpire Online
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Post: #28
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
People should check tv ratings. Wazzu might surprise you.
08-04-2022 10:29 AM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #29
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:24 AM)Jericho Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

And what does getting into SoCal and Texas get the PAC? Anything? A toaster?

Recruiting.
08-04-2022 10:29 AM
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AztecEmpire Online
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RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
Right now the PAC is talking to SDSU/BYU/SMU/HOU....I think SDSU/SMU is most likely because of the short term GOR not being enough to get BYU and Houston to take the bait. However, I also think SDSU & BYU is a real possibility. If the PAC was ever going to add BYU now is the time.
08-04-2022 10:31 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #31
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:29 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  People should check tv ratings. Wazzu might surprise you.

Yeah, there's no way Wazzu just simply accepts a half share - they have better TV ratings that half of the remaining PAC 10 schools.
08-04-2022 10:32 AM
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AztecEmpire Online
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Post: #32
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:19 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

Sept 3, Arizona plays SDSU @ SDSU with a noon EST start. It will be interesting to see what the TV numbers are.
This game is a big test for SDSU in terms of draw. Other 12:30 k/o's include Cinci v Ark on ESPN, Oregon v UGA on ABC, and Oklahoma v Utep on Fox.
08-04-2022 10:35 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #33
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:31 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Right now the PAC is talking to SDSU/BYU/SMU/HOU....I think SDSU/SMU is most likely because of the short term GOR not being enough to get BYU and Houston to take the bait. However, I also think SDSU & BYU is a real possibility. If the PAC was ever going to add BYU now is the time.

BYU is a future possibility, but not right away. BYU is not likely to burn bridges and renege on its Big 12 move.
08-04-2022 10:38 AM
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Post: #34
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:38 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:31 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Right now the PAC is talking to SDSU/BYU/SMU/HOU....I think SDSU/SMU is most likely because of the short term GOR not being enough to get BYU and Houston to take the bait. However, I also think SDSU & BYU is a real possibility. If the PAC was ever going to add BYU now is the time.

BYU is a future possibility, but not right away. BYU is not likely to burn bridges and renege on its Big 12 move.

Very true. BYU, by all accounts, appears to be excited to be going to the B12, and the feeling is mutual.

In addition, the Pac isn't going to add BYU if Stanford is still part of the conference. Of course, if the Pac adds BYU, we know that Stanford is on its way out the door, even if the B1G has yet to invite them.
08-04-2022 10:42 AM
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Post: #35
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:31 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Right now the PAC is talking to SDSU/BYU/SMU/HOU....I think SDSU/SMU is most likely because of the short term GOR not being enough to get BYU and Houston to take the bait. However, I also think SDSU & BYU is a real possibility. If the PAC was ever going to add BYU now is the time.

This is believable. Where did you hear this?
08-04-2022 10:43 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #36
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 06:28 AM)Comet Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:23 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:04 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

SMU is 5th or 6th in the DFW pecking order.

Who all is above SMU on the DFW pecking order???
It doesn’t even matter who all is above SMU since they’re not going to feasibly leave their conferences for a shaky PAC

lol---no way. SMU would take that Pac12 offer before it hit the table. Worse case is the Pac12 falls apart over the next few years--with the Big10 taking Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and California. The Big12 takes the 4-corners schools. Then SMU, SDSU, Washington St, and Oregon St would simply rebuild the Pac12 using the best G5 parts available from the MW, Texas/Oklahoma area. Boise, Fresno, Air Force, Wyoming---there are your first 4 additions. From there you can add a couple of Texas teams--maybe even Memphis--plus either New Mexico or Colorado St to get to 12. Talk to Gonzaga and Wichita about becoming non-football members and the Pac12 lives on as the premier G5 conference---but with better bowls, great basketball, and not anchored to a 12 year TV deal. So, even in a worst case scenario----SMU would be P5 for a while---and then after the implosion----its still a step up....or SMU can keep playing Charlotte and FAU.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 11:02 AM by Attackcoog.)
08-04-2022 10:55 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #37
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:55 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:28 AM)Comet Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:23 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:04 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

SMU is 5th or 6th in the DFW pecking order.

Who all is above SMU on the DFW pecking order???
It doesn’t even matter who all is above SMU since they’re not going to feasibly leave their conferences for a shaky PAC

lol---no way. SMU would take that Pac12 offer before it hit the table. Worse case is the Pac12 falls apart over the next few years--with the Big10 taking Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and California. The Big12 takes the 4-corners schools. Then SMU, SDSU, Washington St, and Oregon St would simply rebuild the Pac12 using the best G5 parts available from the MW, Texas/Oklahoma area.

Exactly. SMU takes a PAC invite in a millisecond. Even if it falls apart and WSU/OSU/SDSU/SMU are all that's left standing, they get their pick of the 6 best geographically-feasible G5 schools.
08-04-2022 10:58 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #38
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:58 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:55 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:28 AM)Comet Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:23 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 12:04 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  SMU is 5th or 6th in the DFW pecking order.

Who all is above SMU on the DFW pecking order???
It doesn’t even matter who all is above SMU since they’re not going to feasibly leave their conferences for a shaky PAC

lol---no way. SMU would take that Pac12 offer before it hit the table. Worse case is the Pac12 falls apart over the next few years--with the Big10 taking Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and California. The Big12 takes the 4-corners schools. Then SMU, SDSU, Washington St, and Oregon St would simply rebuild the Pac12 using the best G5 parts available from the MW, Texas/Oklahoma area.

Exactly. SMU takes a PAC invite in a millisecond. Even if it falls apart and WSU/OSU/SDSU/SMU are all that's left standing, they get their pick of the 6 best geographically-feasible G5 schools.

Oh I think they might let the B12 know first, that they have a PAC invite, to see what the B12 does.

But if no movement from there, then yes, the current uncertainty in the PAC is little different than the uncertainty in several of the G5 - SMU jumps at it.
08-04-2022 11:15 AM
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Jericho Offline
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Post: #39
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 10:29 AM)e-parade Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:24 AM)Jericho Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Assuming no likely moves involving the other P5 leagues (which at this point I would think is the slight betting favorite), could the Pac-12 expand using the following criteria?

Pay both new members and OSU and WSU half shares for the next six-year contract, three-quarter shares for the one following, and full shares for the contract 12 or so years down the road.

For example, if the Pac-12 gets 300 million to disperse, 30 million could go to each of the eight schools not named OSU and WSU, and 15 million to OSU, WSU, SDSU, and SMU.

Considering that OSU and WSU are the weakest brands and should be the biggest proponents of expansion especially if the Pac-12 is raided in the future, could this be possible?

Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

And what does getting into SoCal and Texas get the PAC? Anything? A toaster?

Recruiting.

You say that word, though I'm not sure it means what you think it means. Is the PAC really hurting for SoCal recruits or Texas recruits as is? If the PAC suddenly had 1/12 of the conference in some other location, is that really going to move the needle? If SMU joins, will PAC Texas (at least for non-SMU schools) recruits jump by 400%? Or will it increase by like 5 people. Total. And for the low, low cost of what's likely millions of dollars per school (as they basically have to now give SMU 1/12 of their pie). I'd like see some realistic projections on this, but I'm guessing the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
08-04-2022 02:45 PM
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Post: #40
RE: A theory on Pac-12 expansion
(08-04-2022 02:45 PM)Jericho Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:29 AM)e-parade Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 10:24 AM)Jericho Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 08:01 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:59 PM)Realigned Wrote:  Why do that? You are essentially saying that adding new members doesn’t increase the size of the pie.
They don't. That's the point. You would add them to get into SoCal and Texas.

And what does getting into SoCal and Texas get the PAC? Anything? A toaster?

Recruiting.

You say that word, though I'm not sure it means what you think it means. Is the PAC really hurting for SoCal recruits or Texas recruits as is?

Well, nobody knows and we won't know until after 2024. Arizona and Arizona State have been playing a game a year in LA since 1980 or so, the PAC-12 North teams have been averaging 2/3 games a year in LA since expansion.

Quote:If the PAC suddenly had 1/12 of the conference in some other location, is that really going to move the needle? If SMU joins, will PAC Texas (at least for non-SMU schools) recruits jump by 400%? Or will it increase by like 5 people. Total. And for the low, low cost of what's likely millions of dollars per school (as they basically have to now give SMU 1/12 of their pie). I'd like see some realistic projections on this, but I'm guessing the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

I agree with your guess, mostly because I think SDSU is invisible outside San Diego.
08-04-2022 02:51 PM
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