.

Thus far, since 2011, 11 schools have joined or announced that they are joining P5 conferences (ACC/B10/B12/PAC/SEC).

2011 Utah (from MWC to PAC)

2012 TCU (from MWC to B12)

2012 WVU (from AAC to B12)

2013 Syracuse (from BEC to ACC)

2013 Pitt (from BEC to ACC)

2014 Rutgers (from BEC to B10)

2014 Louisville (from BEC to ACC)

2023 Cincinnati (from AAC to B12)

2023 Houston (from AAC to B12)

2023 UCF (from AAC to B12)

2023 BYU (from Indy to B12)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


............# of teams in 2011.....# of teams in 2025

Big Ten...............11...........................16 (+5)

SEC....................12...........................16 (+4)

Big 12.................10...........................12 (+2)

ACC....................12...........................14 (+2)

PAC....................12...........................10 (-2)

Total:..................57..........................68 (+2.2 per conference)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Some might wish to argue that the former BCS schools should or shouldn't be included in the count, but even if they're not counted, there has still been a significant net increase in the number of P5 schools (from 63 to 69).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Questions:

Will the pace of P5 expansion continue at a similar pace, going forward?

Will the SEC and Big Ten have 16, 18, 20, 22, or 24 teams in 2035?

.

Actually, West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt went from a P conference to another one. Big East was a P conference. AAC was later.

(08-03-2022 06:01 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Actually, West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt went from a P conference to another one. Big East was a P conference. AAC was later.

And the Big 12 went from 12 teams in 2010 to 12 teams in 2025.

The Big Ten may have gained 5 teams since 2010 but 4 were from P5 conferences and 1 was a Big East/AAC school.

(08-03-2022 06:01 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Actually, West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt went from a P conference to another one. Big East was a P conference. AAC was later.

Semantically, strictly speaking, the BEC wasn't a "P" conference. They were a "BCS" conference. The BEC and SWC were comparable in stature, but they were not "P" conferences, per se.*

The precursor to the BCS was the CFA (College Football Association). At that time, the WAC (which had members such as SDSU, CSU, Wyoming, UNM, Hawaii, Air Force, and Fresno State) was a CFA conference.

This thread (in the O.P.) is focusing specifically on the P5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC, & SEC).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

*Notably, there are still a number of other former members of BCS- and CFA-level conferences that could be invited to join the P5 conferences: Tulane, Rice, Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, SDSU, CSU, Wyoming, UNM, Hawaii, AFA, and FSU. In addition, Navy probably belongs on this list, as a long-time independent FB powerhouse.

With that many former BCS and CFA schools, plus up-and-coming FBS powerhouse schools (e.g., Boise St., Utah St., Appalachian St., & Louisiana), it is at least conceivable that the number of P5 schools will continue to expand by about 1 school per year over the following decade.

.

(08-03-2022 06:25 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 06:01 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Actually, West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt went from a P conference to another one. Big East was a P conference. AAC was later.

Semantically, strictly speaking, the BEC wasn't a "P" conference. They were a "BCS" conference. The BEC and SWC were comparable in stature, but they were not "P" conferences, per se.*

The precursor to the BCS was the CFA (College Football Association).

Disagree the real predecessor to the CFP and BCS were the major bowls, Rose Sugar Oramge Cotton and later Fiesta. if you weren't going to those bowls. you weren't really at the top level.

If you start with idea that the Big East was still a power conference in 2010, and Notre Dame was and still is a Power conference level school, then the total power schools in 2010 were

Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 12
SEC - 12
ACC - 12
PAC - 10
Big East - 8
Notre Dame - 1
Total - 66

In 2025 it will be
Big Ten - 16
SEC - 16
ACC - 14
Big 12 - 12
PAC - 10
ND - 1
Total - 69

Power schools added- 5 total
Utah to PAC -2011
TCU to Big 12 - 2012
Houston to Big 12 -2023
UCF to Big 12 - 2023
BYU to Big 12 - 2023

Schools in 2010 Big east that eventually moved to P5 (don't count - Net gain is zero)-
WV to Big 12 - 2012
Pitt, Cuse to ACC - 2013
Rutgers to Big Ten - 2014
Louisville to ACC - 2014
Cincy to Big 12 - 2023

schools in 2010 Big East that never made it back to P5 - 2 schools
USF - Still in AAC
UConn - now an Indy in football.

So the math works out 66+5-2 = 69.

The number of power schools has grown by 3 schools from 2010 to 2025.

As others noted, the logic of OP is off—he’s including lateral moves.

The BCS began with 63 schools.

2004 UConn joins BE (64)
2005 Temple leaves BE (63)
2005 Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF join BE (66)
2011 Utah joins PAC 12 (67)
2012 TCU joins Big 12, Temple rejoins BE (69)
2013 UCF, Houston, SMU, and Memphis join AAC (73)
2014 BE (UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, & SMU) demoted (65)
2023 Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU join Big 12 (69)

(08-03-2022 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As others noted, the logic of OP is off—he’s including lateral moves.

The BCS began with 63 schools.

2004 UConn joins BE (64)
2005 Temple leaves BE (63)
2005 Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF join BE (66)
2011 Utah joins PAC 12 (67)
2012 TCU joins Big 12, Temple rejoins BE (69)
2013 UCF, Houston, SMU, and Memphis join AAC (73)
2014 BE (UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, & SMU) demoted (65)
2023 Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU join Big 12 (69)

Strictly speaking, the logic in the OP is 100% correct, because it focuses exclusively on the membership of the P5 conferences.

The Big East was not a P5 (ACC/B10/B12/PAC/SEC) conference.

. . . . . .

I disagree with your argument about "lateral moves," because the "lateral moves" argument can't possibly include every Big East school (Rutgers and UConn and USF, for example).

Rutgers to the Big Ten was in no way a "lateral move," and obviously, not every Big East school ended up in a P5 conference, so there's no way to sustain the argument that the entire Big East made a lateral move to P5 conferences.

The point being this: Arguing that the Big East schools made a "lateral move" into P5 conferences doesn't work. There are too many holes in it - like Swiss cheese. One can pick a few examples that seem to fit, such as WVU and Louisville, but that's an example of "cherry picking," and is itself based on a flaw in logic.

.

Even if we were to "cherry pick" and eliminate the few Big East schools that moved up, there has still been a significant (6/63 = 9.5%) P5 expansion in P5 membership, since Utah, TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU have all joined or are all joining P5 conferences.

(08-03-2022 08:50 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As others noted, the logic of OP is off—he’s including lateral moves.

The BCS began with 63 schools.

2004 UConn joins BE (64)
2005 Temple leaves BE (63)
2005 Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF join BE (66)
2011 Utah joins PAC 12 (67)
2012 TCU joins Big 12, Temple rejoins BE (69)
2013 UCF, Houston, SMU, and Memphis join AAC (73)
2014 BE (UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, & SMU) demoted (65)
2023 Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU join Big 12 (69)

Strictly speaking, the logic in the OP is 100% correct, because it focuses exclusively on the membership of the P5 conferences.

The Big East was not a P5 (ACC/B10/B12/PAC/SEC) conference.

. . . . . .

I disagree with your argument about "lateral moves," because the "lateral moves" argument can't possibly include every Big East school (Rutgers and UConn and USF, for example).

Rutgers to the Big Ten was in no way a "lateral move," and obviously, not every Big East school ended up in a P5 conference, so there's no way to sustain the argument that the entire Big East made a lateral move to P5 conferences.

The point being this: Arguing that the Big East schools made a "lateral move" into P5 conferences doesn't work. There are too many holes in it - like Swiss cheese. One can pick a few examples that seem to fit, such as WVU and Louisville, but that's an example of "cherry picking," and is itself based on a flaw in logic.

.

Even if we were to "cherry pick" and eliminate the few Big East schools that moved up, there has still been a significant (6/63 = 9.5%) P5 expansion in P5 membership, since Utah, TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU have all joined or are all joining P5 conferences.

They are lateral in the sense that they are BCS to BCS or P5 to P5. The total number of schools in the elite club doesn’t change when a school hops from one of these leagues to another.

The Big East FB schools couldn't have been in the P5 because there wasn't a P5 until 2014. It's ridiculous to retroactively exclude them from the group of "power" schools in the BCS era.

We've restructured. As things stand in 2025 we will have 32 P schools, 37 near P schools (assuming no more expansion moves, ND as an Indy counts as a near P now), and 72 G level schools. The 69 count has to be split into those approaching $100M in distributions and those getting $40-50M range, with the G5 ranging from $12-18 M on the upper half and $6-10M on the lower half.

When it settles in my opinion, we'll have 40 P schools (2 conferences), likely 36 high mid-majors (3 conferences ... Pac-12 wont die), 60-70 low mid-majors (G5 after some ACC and P12 back fills from AAC and MWC, with some ripple). The high mid-majors will see belt tightening and small increases compared to the upper G5 and the P2 who will continue to grow.

(08-03-2022 09:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 08:50 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As others noted, the logic of OP is off—he’s including lateral moves.

The BCS began with 63 schools.

2004 UConn joins BE (64)
2005 Temple leaves BE (63)
2005 Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF join BE (66)
2011 Utah joins PAC 12 (67)
2012 TCU joins Big 12, Temple rejoins BE (69)
2013 UCF, Houston, SMU, and Memphis join AAC (73)
2014 BE (UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, & SMU) demoted (65)
2023 Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU join Big 12 (69)

Strictly speaking, the logic in the OP is 100% correct, because it focuses exclusively on the membership of the P5 conferences.

The Big East was not a P5 (ACC/B10/B12/PAC/SEC) conference.

. . . . . .

I disagree with your argument about "lateral moves," because the "lateral moves" argument can't possibly include every Big East school (Rutgers and UConn and USF, for example).

Rutgers to the Big Ten was in no way a "lateral move," and obviously, not every Big East school ended up in a P5 conference, so there's no way to sustain the argument that the entire Big East made a lateral move to P5 conferences.

The point being this: Arguing that the Big East schools made a "lateral move" into P5 conferences doesn't work. There are too many holes in it - like Swiss cheese. One can pick a few examples that seem to fit, such as WVU and Louisville, but that's an example of "cherry picking," and is itself based on a flaw in logic.

.

Even if we were to "cherry pick" and eliminate the few Big East schools that moved up, there has still been a significant (6/63 = 9.5%) P5 expansion in P5 membership, since Utah, TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU have all joined or are all joining P5 conferences.

They are lateral in the sense that they are BCS to BCS or P5 to P5. The total number of schools in the elite club doesn’t change when a school hops from one of these leagues to another.

This is just a "fun" mid-summer (off-season) debate, but I would argue that what you're trying to argue is that - - for example - - UCF is in "THE ELITE CLUB."

My counter-argument is that UCF (a) is not an elite basketball program, (b) hasn't finished in the FB top 25 since 2019, © has only had a few FB top 25 teams in their entire history, and (d) was an FCS school until 1996. How elite is that?

To some extent these are matters of opinion, and could be considered "shades of grey" - not necessarily any right or wrong answers.

However:

Utah and TCU were G5 to P5, and

Cincy and UCF (in 2023) are G5 to P5, and

Houston (in 2023) are G5 to P5, and

BYU (in 2023) will be independent (non-P5) to P5.

(08-03-2022 06:36 PM)goofus Wrote:  If you start with idea that the Big East was still a power conference in 2010, and Notre Dame was and still is a Power conference level school, then the total power schools in 2010 were

Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 12
SEC - 12
ACC - 12
PAC - 10
Big East - 8
Notre Dame - 1
Total - 66

In 2025 it will be
Big Ten - 16
SEC - 16
ACC - 14
Big 12 - 12
PAC - 10
ND - 1
Total - 69

Power schools added- 5 total
Utah to PAC -2011
TCU to Big 12 - 2012
Houston to Big 12 -2023
UCF to Big 12 - 2023
BYU to Big 12 - 2023

Schools in 2010 Big east that eventually moved to P5 (don't count - Net gain is zero)-
WV to Big 12 - 2012
Pitt, Cuse to ACC - 2013
Rutgers to Big Ten - 2014
Louisville to ACC - 2014
Cincy to Big 12 - 2023

schools in 2010 Big East that never made it back to P5 - 2 schools
USF - Still in AAC
UConn - now an Indy in football.

So the math works out 66+5-2 = 69.

The number of power schools has grown by 3 schools from 2010 to 2025.

This is how I see it. Agree.

.

There are a few interesting questions to ponder here.

One is about whether there has been an increase in the number of "major power" conference schools. The answer to that question is yes, whether one assesses growth since 2011 or since 1995, when there were 7 "major power" conferences (ACC (11), Big 10(11), Big 8, Big East (8), PAC-10, SEC(12), and SWC(8)) and 65 "major power" conference schools.

Back in 1995, BYU, Utah, Cincy, Louisville, UCF, and Notre Dame were not members of any of those 7 conferences (nor were USF or UConn), but Houston and TCU (and Rice, SMU & Temple) were.

Currently, there are 65 P5 schools, due to the fact that newer P5 members Utah, Louisville, and ND have replaced former power schoolsl (Rice, SMU, Houston, and Temple). As of 2023, there will be 69, due to the elevation of BYU, Cincy, UCF, and Houston to P5 conferences.

.

(08-04-2022 05:59 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 09:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 08:50 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As others noted, the logic of OP is off—he’s including lateral moves.

The BCS began with 63 schools.

2004 UConn joins BE (64)
2005 Temple leaves BE (63)
2005 Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF join BE (66)
2011 Utah joins PAC 12 (67)
2012 TCU joins Big 12, Temple rejoins BE (69)
2013 UCF, Houston, SMU, and Memphis join AAC (73)
2014 BE (UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, & SMU) demoted (65)
2023 Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU join Big 12 (69)

Strictly speaking, the logic in the OP is 100% correct, because it focuses exclusively on the membership of the P5 conferences.

The Big East was not a P5 (ACC/B10/B12/PAC/SEC) conference.

. . . . . .

I disagree with your argument about "lateral moves," because the "lateral moves" argument can't possibly include every Big East school (Rutgers and UConn and USF, for example).

Rutgers to the Big Ten was in no way a "lateral move," and obviously, not every Big East school ended up in a P5 conference, so there's no way to sustain the argument that the entire Big East made a lateral move to P5 conferences.

The point being this: Arguing that the Big East schools made a "lateral move" into P5 conferences doesn't work. There are too many holes in it - like Swiss cheese. One can pick a few examples that seem to fit, such as WVU and Louisville, but that's an example of "cherry picking," and is itself based on a flaw in logic.

.

Even if we were to "cherry pick" and eliminate the few Big East schools that moved up, there has still been a significant (6/63 = 9.5%) P5 expansion in P5 membership, since Utah, TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU have all joined or are all joining P5 conferences.

They are lateral in the sense that they are BCS to BCS or P5 to P5. The total number of schools in the elite club doesn’t change when a school hops from one of these leagues to another.

This is just a "fun" mid-summer (off-season) debate, but I would argue that what you're trying to argue is that - - for example - - UCF is in "THE ELITE CLUB."

My counter-argument is that UCF (a) is not an elite basketball program, (b) hasn't finished in the FB top 25 since 2019, © has only had a few FB top 25 teams in their entire history, and (d) was an FCS school until 1996. How elite is that?

To some extent these are matters of opinion, and could be considered "shades of grey" - not necessarily any right or wrong answers.

However:

Utah and TCU were G5 to P5, and

Cincy and UCF (in 2023) are G5 to P5, and

Houston (in 2023) are G5 to P5, and

BYU (in 2023) will be independent (non-P5) to P5.

It's not a matter of opinion as to the lateral moves from the Big East to other power conference members. The Big East was a BCS AQ conference, which was the definition of a power conference during the BCS era. The P5 only became defined after the elimination of the Big East and referred to Contract Bowl conferences, which has been the definition of a power conference in the current CFP era.

I'm not sure what your point is here. 4 of the net 6 total change in power schools from the start of the BCS to now are coming from the Big 12's expansion of 4 schools. This isn't some type of organic gradual widespread growth. History actually indicates that it's more likely that another league ends up getting eliminated in a way that returns the total power ranks to the low-to-mid-60s for schools than for the power ranks to continue growing at this pace.

I'm pretty sure I posted this somewhere else on this site, but here it is again:

(08-04-2022 06:31 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  I'm pretty sure I posted this somewhere else on this site, but here it is again:

That's a very informative table. Thanks for posting it.

Projected P5 membership (2025):

ACC: 14 (FB) / 15 (BB/olympic)

Big Ten: 16

Big 12: 12

PAC: 10

SEC: 16

Total: 69 (including Notre Dame)

. . . . . . . . . . . .

The question, with regard to future P5 expansion, is whether the ACC, Big 12, and PAC will opt to expand in order to remain competitive with the Big Ten and SEC.

If all three conferences were to expand to 16, thereby matching the Big Ten and SEC, there would be a total of 80 P5 schools.

It will be interesting to see how they decide to proceed.

.

(08-04-2022 06:50 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-04-2022 06:31 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  I'm pretty sure I posted this somewhere else on this site, but here it is again:

That's a very informative table. Thanks for posting it.

Projected P5 membership (2025):

ACC: 14 (FB) / 15 (BB/olympic)

Big Ten: 16

Big 12: 12

PAC: 10

SEC: 16

Total: 69 (including Notre Dame)

. . . . . . . . . . . .

The question, with regard to future P5 expansion, is whether the ACC, Big 12, and PAC will opt to expand in order to remain competitive with the Big Ten and SEC.

If all three conferences were to expand to 16, thereby matching the Big Ten and SEC, there would be a total of 80 P5 schools.

It will be interesting to see how they decide to proceed.

.

Though we could see five top-tier conferences of note (as we have today) with a collective 80 members, the more realistic scenario might be four "power leagues" with a collective 70 to 75 programs.

An even more realistic scenario might be three power leagues with a collective 70 or so programs and a fourth league (a "best of the rest") with 16 to 20 programs. The "No. 4" league might be, for example, a "merged" AAC and MWC. It would not be nearly as strong as the hypothetical "No. 3" league of the future. But it likely would be much better than either the current AAC or MWC.

There are multiple scenarios that could play out. As I've noted, the programs at the "bottom" of the P5 and at the "top" of the G5 likely are sweating it out.

The schools I have seen out from the G5 as expansion candidates that could help on the field products are?
Boise State With the best record of all the FBS schools since 1999.
Fresno State
San Diegon State
UNR
UNLV
Colorado State
SMU
UTSA
Rice
Tulane
Navy
Memphis
USF
Army
Air Force

Yes, I added the military schools because the bowl games and football games are usually sponsor by the US military to recruit people.

(08-04-2022 10:07 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The schools I have seen out from the G5 as expansion candidates that could help on the field products are?
Boise State With the best record of all the FBS schools since 1999.
Fresno State
San Diegon State
UNR
UNLV
Colorado State
SMU
UTSA
Rice
Tulane
Navy
Memphis
USF
Army
Air Force

Yes, I added the military schools because the bowl games and football games are usually sponsor by the US military to recruit people.

That's a quality group of 15 schools.