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Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
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Boots Offline
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Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
Here is Mandels mailbag from this morning...some juicy information he sounds confident in...summary...

-If PAC expands he feels confident it would be SDSU and SMU
-If one conference is poaching...much more likely it is the PAC taking from the Big 12...not the reversal.
-Also very possible they stay at 10.

Here is the Q & A....

I am a lifelong Southerner, but pulling for the Pac-12 to survive and prosper. After San Diego State, are either Nevada or UNLV acceptable candidates? — Mark C.

Nothing against either of those two fine institutions, but if the Pac-12 brought either of them in, the remaining schools would basically have to write them a check from their own bank accounts, because they’re bringing zero new dollars to the league’s next TV deals.

Based on the conversations I’ve had, and reading between some tea leaves, the only remaining Group of 5 schools on the Pac-12’s radar are San Diego State and SMU. The former is fairly obvious, both due to its location and its strong athletic department. SMU’s appeal is part getting into the Dallas recruiting and TV market, and part that it’s highly ranked in academics (No. 68 nationally in US News) — which Pac-12 presidents really do care about. However, it’s also debatable whether either or both will add enough per-school value to prevent the existing 10 from getting their slice of the pie.

I would not discount two other possibilities for the Pac-12. One is the league stays at 10 programs. It would be much the same strategy the Big 12 followed from 2011-21, which benefitted its schools financially but then of course left them a sitting duck when Oklahoma and Texas left. This to me is the likely outcome if they end up landing a less-than-desired number from their next set of media rights. (If that happens, I’d also expect to see Oregon and possibly others push for a bigger slice of the revenue).

Or — they do better than expected, and try to use it as incentive to add schools from the Big 12.

Obviously, the Pac-12 had that opportunity a year ago and declined. (The LA Times recently reported that of all people, USC president Carol Folt put the kibosh on expansion at that time.) I’ve been told the conference did its diligence and found that only a couple of the Big 12 holdovers would have added any value. But circumstances have changed, and if commissioner George Kliavkoff and/or his presidents deem it important to get into Texas, it would make sense to pursue TCU and Baylor, or perhaps even Houston, before turning to SMU and San Diego State.

The tricky thing is that the Big 12 Grant of Rights goes for a year longer than the Pac-12’s, so it wouldn’t line up with the start of the Pac-12’s next TV deal. But that could also work to their advantage. The Pac-12 is going to know its post-USC/UCLA valuation a year or more earlier than the Big 12 schools find out their post-Oklahoma/Texas fate. Probably before the end of this calendar year. That guaranteed money could be tempting to a school like TCU that will still have no idea the new Big 12’s value. And, if they wait until 2025, they can defect without having to pay an exit fee.

To be clear, I would not place the likelihood of this scenario particularly high, though certainly higher than anyone going in the reverse direction.
08-03-2022 11:14 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
You should delete your double post. Its not THAT juicy! We don't need juicyfruit twins.
08-03-2022 11:16 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  You should delete your double post. Its not THAT juicy! We don't need juicyfruit twins.

Sorry! Trying to delete but saying it won't let me when i go through delete thread process.
08-03-2022 11:19 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  You should delete your double post. Its not THAT juicy! We don't need juicyfruit twins.

Wake up on the wrong side today?
08-03-2022 11:23 AM
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Huan Offline
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  We don't need juicyfruit twins.

speak for yourself
08-03-2022 11:34 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:19 AM)Boots Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 11:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  You should delete your double post. Its not THAT juicy! We don't need juicyfruit twins.

Sorry! Trying to delete but saying it won't let me when i go through delete thread process.

Best thing to do is erase the post and leave a . for the body and title. That way everyone knows it was a duplicate and let it pass down. Also, don't rename the title "Please delete Mods" lol people jokingly think you want the mods deleted instead of the post.
08-03-2022 11:40 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:40 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 11:19 AM)Boots Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 11:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  You should delete your double post. Its not THAT juicy! We don't need juicyfruit twins.

Sorry! Trying to delete but saying it won't let me when i go through delete thread process.

Best thing to do is erase the post and leave a . for the body and title. That way everyone knows it was a duplicate and let it pass down. Also, don't rename the title "Please delete Mods" lol people jokingly think you want the mods deleted instead of the post.

There's another site where at least 3 of the mods I would like see deleted 04-cheers, but they are all fine here.
08-03-2022 11:42 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
Staying at 10 would be a mistake. You need to build the conference for the future. Just go ahead and grab SDSU and SMU.
08-03-2022 11:46 AM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 11:46 AM)Tigerblud Wrote:  Staying at 10 would be a mistake. You need to build the conference for the future. Just go ahead and grab SDSU and SMU.

I think 8 of those 10 schools aren’t in this for the long haul so I don’t see them trying to fill out the ranks.
08-03-2022 12:12 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
Understand that Mandel has a bit of a west coast bias. Lets follow the logic on the Pac12 poaching the Big12. No Pac12 team is moving to the Big12 without first seeing that what the Pac12 deal will be. The Pac12 has the advantage of going first. Thus, the Pac12 will be able to lure Big12 teams.

Does anyone else find it odd, that people believe that Pac12 teams with no exit fee absolutely MUST first see what their pay out is before even considering a jump---but believe that Big12 teams with an 80 million dollar exit fee will jump without knowing what their potential payout would be? Sounds like delusional logic to me. If the Big12 wants to end this now---all they need to do is sign a GOR extension. Its over at that point. Realignment between the two would only be able to flow one way after that document is signed. Otherwise, I suspect this drama could play out over the next year or two coming to head when Big12 TV deal negotiations begin to answer some questions for Big12 teams.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 12:27 PM by Attackcoog.)
08-03-2022 12:12 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 11:46 AM)Tigerblud Wrote:  Staying at 10 would be a mistake. You need to build the conference for the future. Just go ahead and grab SDSU and SMU.

I think 8 of those 10 schools aren’t in this for the long haul so I don’t see them trying to fill out the ranks.

Good point. Maximizing revenue will the main goal for at least 3 schools who have realistic BIG10 hopes within the next few years. Thats enough to block any additions.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 12:20 PM by Attackcoog.)
08-03-2022 12:20 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Understand that Mandel has a bit of a west coast bias. Lets follow the logic on the Pac12 poaching the Big12. No Pac12 team is moving to the Big12 without first seeing that what the Pac12 deal will be. The Pac12 has the advantage of going first. Thus, the Pac12 will be able to lure Big12 teams.

Does anyone else find it odd, that people believe that Pac12 teams with no exit fee absolutely MUST first see what their pay out is before even considering a jump---but believe that a Big12 teams with an 80 million dollar exit fee will jump without knowing what their potential payout would be? Sounds like delusional logic to me. If the Big12 wants to end this now---all they need to do is sign a GOR extension. Its over at that point. Realignment between the two would only be able to flow one way after that document is signed. Otherwise, I suspect this drama could play out over the next year or two coming to head when Big12 TV deal negotiations begin to answer some questions for Big12 teams.

Yeah. Its pretty delusional. And then there is the idea that schools don't have a good idea of what they will be paid. They are all hiring media consultants. They are talking to their TV partners. They all know there isn't going to be a huge gap. So there is zero chance of a Big 12 school moving to the Pac in this cycle unless it is a merger of sorts.

Now if the Pac deal is on the low end, $24 million or so, those schools will want to see that and will jump to the Big 12 for security (more so than for money).

But then most journalists are ignorant about realignment, Brett McMurphy being a prominent exception.
08-03-2022 12:26 PM
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Post: #13
RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Understand that Mandel has a bit of a west coast bias. Lets follow the logic on the Pac12 poaching the Big12. No Pac12 team is moving to the Big12 without first seeing that what the Pac12 deal will be. The Pac12 has the advantage of going first. Thus, the Pac12 will be able to lure Big12 teams.

Does anyone else find it odd, that people believe that Pac12 teams with no exit fee absolutely MUST first see what their pay out is before even considering a jump---but believe that a Big12 teams with an 80 million dollar exit fee will jump without knowing what their potential payout would be? Sounds like delusional logic to me. If the Big12 wants to end this now---all they need to do is sign a GOR extension. Its over at that point. Realignment between the two would only be able to flow one way after that document is signed. Otherwise, I suspect this drama could play out over the next year or two coming to head when Big12 TV deal negotiations begin to answer some questions for Big12 teams.


Mandel is bad at this.


The only direction realignment is going is east.

That was most likely true for over a decade, but set in stone once the Big 10 laid ownership to CA, and continues to drive through the neighborhood telling everyone more may come.

If the 4 corners pass on only chance they’ll have to dictate realignment and their future, the only place Big 12 schools are going would be ACC.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 12:32 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-03-2022 12:31 PM
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Post: #14
RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Understand that Mandel has a bit of a west coast bias. Lets follow the logic on the Pac12 poaching the Big12. No Pac12 team is moving to the Big12 without first seeing that what the Pac12 deal will be. The Pac12 has the advantage of going first. Thus, the Pac12 will be able to lure Big12 teams.

Does anyone else find it odd, that people believe that Pac12 teams with no exit fee absolutely MUST first see what their pay out is before even considering a jump---but believe that Big12 teams with an 80 million dollar exit fee will jump without knowing what their potential payout would be? Sounds like delusional logic to me. If the Big12 wants to end this now---all they need to do is sign a GOR extension. Its over at that point. Realignment between the two would only be able to flow one way after that document is signed. Otherwise, I suspect this drama could play out over the next year or two coming to head when Big12 TV deal negotiations begin to answer some questions for Big12 teams.

I don't think a Grant Of Rights fot the Big 12 would change anything at this point. You've got that big honking exit fee. That's a barrier to, to crib from the Declaration of Independence moves made "for light or transient reasons".

It's not like the Big 12 has a bunch of schools who, on their heart of hearts. would rather be with Stanford than Baylor or Utah over BYU. Its Kansas and a bunch of schools happy to still be, or finally be, in a P5 conference.

nobody's going West fir the next cycle.
08-03-2022 12:34 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
The remaining Pac 12 schools will get a much better tv deal than the B12. I dont see how anyone would think they wont. Remaining PAC schools are much better academically and have a much better cumulative national profile and perception. The Pac viewership is concentrated in better and more varied tv markets. Its not even worth debating in my mind.
08-03-2022 12:43 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/03/f...he-pac-12/

This is Jon Wilner's interview with the former Utah AD:

"...Hill believes football should be treated as a separate business within college sports and will eventually feature a 48-team upper division. That bifurcation could happen in the next few years — or not for a decade.

Unless the Big Ten or SEC come calling, the 36 schools remaining in the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC must recalibrate their strategy and beware of lifeboats that aren’t as sturdy as they appear.

“Their market is their market,” Hill said, referring to the media rights value held by any given school. “Arizona’s worth in the Big 12 is the same as it is in the Pac-12. The finances of moving won’t help anybody.

“What difference does it make if you’re getting $35 million a year in the Pac-12 versus $40 million a year in the Big 12? Either way, it’s not going to move the dial for you.

“The only benefit from switching is to destroy the other league...."”
08-03-2022 12:44 PM
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Post: #17
RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 11:46 AM)Tigerblud Wrote:  Staying at 10 would be a mistake. You need to build the conference for the future. Just go ahead and grab SDSU and SMU.

I think 8 of those 10 schools aren’t in this for the long haul so I don’t see them trying to fill out the ranks.

As a conference commissioner that's your job. You need to protect Oregon state and Washington state. Get some teams in now that will compete right away to an extent. Then can add more later to survive.
08-03-2022 12:48 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/03/f...he-pac-12/

This is Jon Wilner's interview with the former Utah AD:

"...Hill believes football should be treated as a separate business within college sports and will eventually feature a 48-team upper division. That bifurcation could happen in the next few years — or not for a decade.

Unless the Big Ten or SEC come calling, the 36 schools remaining in the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC must recalibrate their strategy and beware of lifeboats that aren’t as sturdy as they appear.

“Their market is their market,” Hill said, referring to the media rights value held by any given school. “Arizona’s worth in the Big 12 is the same as it is in the Pac-12. The finances of moving won’t help anybody.

“What difference does it make if you’re getting $35 million a year in the Pac-12 versus $40 million a year in the Big 12? Either way, it’s not going to move the dial for you.

“The only benefit from switching is to destroy the other league...."”

So he's saying, contrary to many on this forum, that the BXII is not going to get huge pay cut without UT/OU. In addition, contrary to many on this forum, the BXII will make as much, if not slightly more than the PAC.
08-03-2022 12:51 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:43 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  The remaining Pac 12 schools will get a much better tv deal than the B12. I dont see how anyone would think they wont. Remaining PAC schools are much better academically and have a much better cumulative national profile and perception. The Pac viewership is concentrated in better and more varied tv markets. Its not even worth debating in my mind.

I agree with this 100%. It's not a popular take here though.
08-03-2022 12:51 PM
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RE: Mandel with some juicy mailbag information...
(08-03-2022 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/03/f...he-pac-12/

This is Jon Wilner's interview with the former Utah AD:

"...Hill believes football should be treated as a separate business within college sports and will eventually feature a 48-team upper division. That bifurcation could happen in the next few years — or not for a decade.

Unless the Big Ten or SEC come calling, the 36 schools remaining in the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC must recalibrate their strategy and beware of lifeboats that aren’t as sturdy as they appear.

“Their market is their market,” Hill said, referring to the media rights value held by any given school. “Arizona’s worth in the Big 12 is the same as it is in the Pac-12. The finances of moving won’t help anybody.

“What difference does it make if you’re getting $35 million a year in the Pac-12 versus $40 million a year in the Big 12? Either way, it’s not going to move the dial for you.

“The only benefit from switching is to destroy the other league...."”

He is either operating fully on emotion or a simpleton that is out of touch with the realities of today.

You know what is worth even less than $5 million, conference pride between rump conferences. The only tenable path forward is getting a 3rd super conference of P5 leftovers ASAP.


Regardless of which conference name survives, the leftovers need consolidation as much as the P2.

It just so happens to be that the PAC the worst positioned for that. It is simply false that a school's valuation is static. The PAC schools are worth more the less PAC they become, due to some pretty basic econometrics.
Then there is the risk and uncertainty of the BIG continuing to remind the PAC it is nothing more than fodder. Waiting on the BIG to finish the PAC is not risk free for the 4 corners.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 12:53 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-03-2022 12:52 PM
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