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Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-03-2022 07:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 05:13 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 07:43 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Since ND is actively negotiating for a new media deal, there could be stability amongst the P2. Let’s say that the B1G (+ USC & UCLA) and SEC (+ UTx & OU) decide to stay at 16 teams each. They’ll focus on assimilating the new members and maximizing revenue. There is a P2 pause at 16 members each for at least the next 6+ years (during the term of the upcoming B1G contract).

The ACC and ESPN make an offer to select schools in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal). Basically, they’re mimicking the B1G’s expansion playbook for the best available brands. The ACC would be at 18 + partial ND. They would have next level of media brands…consolidating many of the programs that could become attractive to a future P2 expansion. The ACC is maximizing media revenue (albeit with less revenue than the P2, and horrible travel), and enhanced power status in negotiating the future of college athletics.

The B12 and remaining PAC (WSU, OrSt, UU, ASU, UA and CU) merge. They’re also an 18 team conference with enough status to have a seat at the table. By incorporating all six PAC members, the new conference keeps all NCAA credits from both conferences.

This scenario provides a little more leverage to the new ACC and new B12/PAC in negotiations with the P2. If CFP expansion goes to 12 teams, then 5 conference champs + 7 at large works better for everyone. If the power conferences want to breakaway from the NCAA or create their own basketball tournament, it is easier to compromise with fewer key stakeholders. It provides the new conferences with scale (content) in media rights discussions. For the time being, it is not merely the P2 that is separating itself from the FBS…but the next tier conferences are also structuring themselves to benefit from the growth in media rights.

Thoughts?

The best scenario for the ACC is to become an undisputable #3 conference by adding 6 to 10 schools from the Pac and the B12. Personally, I’d like to see the ACC taking UW, UO, Houston, ASU, Cal, and Cincy. But a massive expansion is probably not the most profitable scenario for the ACC.

If the ACC takes four Pacific Northwest schools as OP suggested, then the four corners schools may join the B12. But I don’t think Stanford want to move unless the Big Ten is calling. Alternatively, the ACC can take UO, UW and two of the the following four: Cal, Utah, ASU, and Colorado. Or the ACC may just take UO and UW and be done with it.

That's a disastrous scenario. They aren't going to catch up with the P2 in money and they would create an unwieldy monstrosity with massive travel, with limited connections and a loss of better rivalries. Its a recipe for disentegration.

??

The B1G is one of the P2. The B1G is also fully committed to an outpost in LA…they will cover large markets from the Jersey Shore to Venice Beach. The supposed “unwieldy monstrosity with massive travel, with limited connections and a loss of better rivalries” is already upon us. FOX is fully willing finance conference expansion. The B1G expansion is all about brands, markets and TV viewership.

ESPN can hedge it’s bet on college athletics by getting the ACC to follow a similar strategic path as the B1G. The ACC doesn’t have the value of the P2; the ACC will not be paid as much as the P2. But the ACC needs to get paid substantially more than the PAC or B12. This provides the ACC the foundation to follow a similar approach as the B1G.

Cultural fit is no longer a critical variable. Conference alignment is no longer a 100 year decision. The new goal is to maximize the media payouts for the next contract. The B1G’s new contract will set the precedence for the term of realignment decisions. If the B1G signs a media contract through 2030, then the ACC should be seeking the best expansion candidates that also commit at least through 2030.
08-04-2022 12:27 PM
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Gemofthehills Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
ACC is now part of the Little 8
The ship has left the port and the Big 2 are waving bye to the rest of college football. Your only hope for "big time" football is for the Big 2 to allow your helicopter to land on their ship. Very few colleges will be allowed to land. Players will soon understand the SEC and BIG are the only teams which will be considered the highest level of college football.
08-04-2022 04:04 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-04-2022 04:04 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  ACC is now part of the Little 8
The ship has left the port and the Big 2 are waving bye to the rest of college football. Your only hope for "big time" football is for the Big 2 to allow your helicopter to land on their ship. Very few colleges will be allowed to land. Players will soon understand the SEC and BIG are the only teams which will be considered the highest level of college football.

Meh. The SEC and Big Ten will get about 20 million viewers and 1 to 1.5 million butts in the seats on any given weekend; but the PAC, Big 12, and ACC will still collectively get 10 million viewers and put 800K to 1 million attendance each weekend.

That's still significant interest....

And, you will still see plenty of games like Oregon over Ohio State, Notre Dame over Wisconsin, Stanford over USC, Virginia over Illinois, Pitt over Tennessee, let alone Bowling Green over Minnesota, Fresno State over UCLA and Memphis over Mississippi State. There will still be national title contenders coming from the PAC, Big 12 and ACC.

My hope is that the SEC's and Big Ten's moves lead to a CFP that offers something more than the usual Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and/or Oklahoma lineups. It was nice to see Cincinnati and Michigan in there last year...if nothing else, it would be nice to see Texas A&M, Florida, USC, and Penn State get in the action too.
08-05-2022 01:12 PM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-05-2022 01:12 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 04:04 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  ACC is now part of the Little 8
The ship has left the port and the Big 2 are waving bye to the rest of college football. Your only hope for "big time" football is for the Big 2 to allow your helicopter to land on their ship. Very few colleges will be allowed to land. Players will soon understand the SEC and BIG are the only teams which will be considered the highest level of college football.

Meh. The SEC and Big Ten will get about 20 million viewers and 1 to 1.5 million butts in the seats on any given weekend; but the PAC, Big 12, and ACC will still collectively get 10 million viewers and put 800K to 1 million attendance each weekend.

That's still significant interest....

And, you will still see plenty of games like Oregon over Ohio State, Notre Dame over Wisconsin, Stanford over USC, Virginia over Illinois, Pitt over Tennessee, let alone Bowling Green over Minnesota, Fresno State over UCLA and Memphis over Mississippi State. There will still be national title contenders coming from the PAC, Big 12 and ACC.

My hope is that the SEC's and Big Ten's moves lead to a CFP that offers something more than the usual Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and/or Oklahoma lineups. It was nice to see Cincinnati and Michigan in there last year...if nothing else, it would be nice to see Texas A&M, Florida, USC, and Penn State get in the action too.


At first. A big part of the leftover's brand is based on being at the top, even if not as good.

That has major decay risk, due to both perception and revenue deltas.
08-05-2022 03:54 PM
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Gemofthehills Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-05-2022 03:54 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-05-2022 01:12 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 04:04 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  ACC is now part of the Little 8
The ship has left the port and the Big 2 are waving bye to the rest of college football. Your only hope for "big time" football is for the Big 2 to allow your helicopter to land on their ship. Very few colleges will be allowed to land. Players will soon understand the SEC and BIG are the only teams which will be considered the highest level of college football.

Meh. The SEC and Big Ten will get about 20 million viewers and 1 to 1.5 million butts in the seats on any given weekend; but the PAC, Big 12, and ACC will still collectively get 10 million viewers and put 800K to 1 million attendance each weekend.

That's still significant interest....

And, you will still see plenty of games like Oregon over Ohio State, Notre Dame over Wisconsin, Stanford over USC, Virginia over Illinois, Pitt over Tennessee, let alone Bowling Green over Minnesota, Fresno State over UCLA and Memphis over Mississippi State. There will still be national title contenders coming from the PAC, Big 12 and ACC.

My hope is that the SEC's and Big Ten's moves lead to a CFP that offers something more than the usual Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and/or Oklahoma lineups. It was nice to see Cincinnati and Michigan in there last year...if nothing else, it would be nice to see Texas A&M, Florida, USC, and Penn State get in the action too.


At first. A big part of the leftover's brand is based on being at the top, even if not as good.

That has major decay risk, due to both perception and revenue deltas.

If/when recruits are part of the decay the perception will be reality. With the money and marketing power the Big2 have it will be hard to stop the train.
08-08-2022 06:10 AM
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Win5002 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
The only real reason I prefer a P4 over a P3 was if CFB's playoff only took the 4 conference champions for the playoff. Then if leagues were 18 teams or more each league's playoff could expand to 6 teams to determine their conference champion. I'm guessing the B1G/SEC probably won't go for this going forward because they know they will dominate a 16 team playoff field.

They might be convinced to do it by solely monetizing their conference playoffs but then that would financially hurt the 3rd league in a P3 or bottom two leagues in a P4.

The thing I hate about CFB is redundant unnecessary games. Each CCG is going to be exactly that in an expanded playoff, there is no need for it any longer. Each of those teams should be in CFP. But CFB will have as many of these redundant they matter if the selection committee wants them to matter and don't matter if they want them to matter going forward.
08-10-2022 12:31 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-10-2022 12:31 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  The only real reason I prefer a P4 over a P3 was if CFB's playoff only took the 4 conference champions for the playoff. Then if leagues were 18 teams or more each league's playoff could expand to 6 teams to determine their conference champion. I'm guessing the B1G/SEC probably won't go for this going forward because they know they will dominate a 16 team playoff field.

They might be convinced to do it by solely monetizing their conference playoffs but then that would financially hurt the 3rd league in a P3 or bottom two leagues in a P4.

The thing I hate about CFB is redundant unnecessary games. Each CCG is going to be exactly that in an expanded playoff, there is no need for it any longer. Each of those teams should be in CFP. But CFB will have as many of these redundant they matter if the selection committee wants them to matter and don't matter if they want them to matter going forward.

Completely agree that CCG will be unnecessary with a 12 or 16 team CFP.

The explosive growth in media rights justifies larger conferences. Consolidation of the best football programs into fewer conferences seems inevitable.

The B1G and SEC currently seem aligned on 1) no AQs and 2) maximizing the number of at large CFP teams. If the ACC, B12 & PAC could restructure into two conferences of 18 teams each, I wonder whether an 8 team CFP becomes possible…top 4 conference champs, plus top four at large selections. It leaves some revenue on-the-table, but player compensation/welfare is still a big unknown that needs a better resolution.
08-10-2022 01:12 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-10-2022 01:12 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(08-10-2022 12:31 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  The only real reason I prefer a P4 over a P3 was if CFB's playoff only took the 4 conference champions for the playoff. Then if leagues were 18 teams or more each league's playoff could expand to 6 teams to determine their conference champion. I'm guessing the B1G/SEC probably won't go for this going forward because they know they will dominate a 16 team playoff field.

They might be convinced to do it by solely monetizing their conference playoffs but then that would financially hurt the 3rd league in a P3 or bottom two leagues in a P4.

The thing I hate about CFB is redundant unnecessary games. Each CCG is going to be exactly that in an expanded playoff, there is no need for it any longer. Each of those teams should be in CFP. But CFB will have as many of these redundant they matter if the selection committee wants them to matter and don't matter if they want them to matter going forward.

Completely agree that CCG will be unnecessary with a 12 or 16 team CFP.

The explosive growth in media rights justifies larger conferences. Consolidation of the best football programs into fewer conferences seems inevitable.

The B1G and SEC currently seem aligned on 1) no AQs and 2) maximizing the number of at large CFP teams. If the ACC, B12 & PAC could restructure into two conferences of 18 teams each, I wonder whether an 8 team CFP becomes possible…top 4 conference champs, plus top four at large selections. It leaves some revenue on-the-table, but player compensation/welfare is still a big unknown that needs a better resolution.

Big 10 still wants conference champions. They just aren't firm on defining which conferences before the season starts.
08-10-2022 04:34 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
Imo P4 chances decreased with FOX getting other OTAs to back their league.

Worthy plays in its own right, but possible in part because their won't be much else left to bid on (aka BIG expansion)? That would be an effective way for FOX to use expansion to get the BIG to the NFL model. Grow the conference to a national league of top schools in most major CFB markets backed by OTAs. Now they don't need to, but if BIG adds 3-4 PAC, they have enough to fill slots with regional BIG games to go against national BIG games. Unless, you're not having shoulder, which is possible, losing views to other BIG better than losing to another conference imo

With ESPN being out on BIG, ESPN needs to turn to further consolidation imo. They'll have the budget headroom.

They are in a viewership battle with OTAs. Moving Clemson, FSU, Miami etc to SEC is more important now- they need to rig the schedule of their assets to consistently produce big games. Having Clemson play leftover level brands is a waste.

And in the leftover world, paying for three weak conferences is inefficient. Two need to go if under ESPN. ESPN has the ACC position already, and the ACC Network.

I think the name is mostly arbitrary. If ESPN is needing to consolidate ACC P2 level brands into SEC, do they really build around a conference in which the leftovers of Wake vs Pitt were out viewed by the American conference title game? (yes, the American had playoff implications)

If repurposing the ACC Network (change the name) is not desired, there is value in moving the Big 12 plus 4 corners into the gutted ACC (assuming the BIG expands with 4, and 4 ACC go to SEC). 2 Big 12 schools, likely ISU, KSU, or maybe Tech are out. That adds a lot of markets for "ACC" Network, which may get bundled with the SEC Network imo. The ACC leftovers are happy to not be out cold come 2036, and maybe even making more on balance of GOR given market additions, exit fees, and some paying off by former conference mates.

In reality, none of the weaker P5s survived. If the P2s go past 20 on a quest to make it even easier to grab more of CFP and CBB postseasons, if not start their own for their benefactor, all bets are off.
08-10-2022 08:03 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Is a P4 now a best case scenario for the ACC?
(08-10-2022 08:03 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Imo P4 chances decreased with FOX getting other OTAs to back their league.

Worthy plays in its own right, but possible in part because their won't be much else left to bid on (aka BIG expansion)? That would be an effective way for FOX to use expansion to get the BIG to the NFL model. Grow the conference to a national league of top schools in most major CFB markets backed by OTAs. Now they don't need to, but if BIG adds 3-4 PAC, they have enough to fill slots with regional BIG games to go against national BIG games. Unless, you're not having shoulder, which is possible, losing views to other BIG better than losing to another conference imo

With ESPN being out on BIG, ESPN needs to turn to further consolidation imo. They'll have the budget headroom.

They are in a viewership battle with OTAs. Moving Clemson, FSU, Miami etc to SEC is more important now- they need to rig the schedule of their assets to consistently produce big games. Having Clemson play leftover level brands is a waste.

And in the leftover world, paying for three weak conferences is inefficient. Two need to go if under ESPN. ESPN has the ACC position already, and the ACC Network.

I think the name is mostly arbitrary. If ESPN is needing to consolidate ACC P2 level brands into SEC, do they really build around a conference in which the leftovers of Wake vs Pitt were out viewed by the American conference title game? (yes, the American had playoff implications)

If repurposing the ACC Network (change the name) is not desired, there is value in moving the Big 12 plus 4 corners into the gutted ACC (assuming the BIG expands with 4, and 4 ACC go to SEC). 2 Big 12 schools, likely ISU, KSU, or maybe Tech are out. That adds a lot of markets for "ACC" Network, which may get bundled with the SEC Network imo. The ACC leftovers are happy to not be out cold come 2036, and maybe even making more on balance of GOR given market additions, exit fees, and some paying off by former conference mates.

In reality, none of the weaker P5s survived. If the P2s go past 20 on a quest to make it even easier to grab more of CFP and CBB postseasons, if not start their own for their benefactor, all bets are off.

I think so few picked up on that. It was a major statement since the SEC flew under the radar going all in on ESPN/ABC.
08-10-2022 08:06 PM
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