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What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #21
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
1) The ACC likely has inventory obligations. Maybe (?) they could meet those with a single add like USF or Memphis, but otherwise you’d be trading these 3 for 3 G5 teams.

2) unlikely the Big 12 can match the ACC in per team revenue, so this would be self-relegating for those 3

3) not sure what the remaining ACC gain by this maneuver. Less trips to the population-rich Northeast?
08-03-2022 12:44 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #22
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
I like this thread, and everyone's responses.

Everyone has an opinion, and it's great - seeing those thoughts and opinions help get a cross-section of what you all think.

And I think that has value.

So for example, when I see some consider the 3 schools as "the bottom" and happy to see them go, yet others saying that playing those schools in the northeast has value - I think something can be assessed from that.

The three clearly have value, have things they bring to the table, but that value apparently is getting overlooked.

So let's look at this from Pittsburgh's point of view.

And for this, I'm going to presume that their leadership is not this: "Hey I don't care what happens on the long term - 2036 is a long ways off and by then I'll be off to my next job, so the losses will be someone else's headache. I'll just sit on my backside and pretend that there are no long term concerns to investigate, because nobody wants to hear that right now. I'll just take credit for keeping things where they are. Then I'll leave before the rough waters start."

By the way, in any company, a manager with that attitude should be fired.

So let's presume the leadership at Pittsburgh is as aware of things that are going on as we are (more, likely).

We see all over the internet that ACC/B12/PAC potentially being poached by B10 or SEC is what is driving things right now.

But the thing is, to be real, there are only so many "seats" available.

For example, not that long ago, people were talking about what G5 schools the B12 needed to survive. Memphis appears near the top of every short list.

But look what happened when the PAC schools appeared to be available. Suddenly Memphis is no longer a part of the conversation.

Even now that things "seem" to be cooling as far as the PAC and the B10, everyone is in a holding pattern. - Do you (B12) accept schools now, if you think PAC may still be available later? It's a conundrum.

And PAC not having a exit fee, and media rights nearing an end, really makes them seem the most vulnerable.

But the PAC isn't going to invite Pittsburgh for one of its open seats.

Neither is SEC. And Pitt would seem to be rather low on the list of B10's choices. These days, Kansas is even sounding higher.

Now add that to the current upheavals in the media industry - including a certain shift for more live and unscripted programming for ota broadcast - and sports is at the head of the line on that.

Plus the changes coming due to NIL, paying players, revamping the CFP, and honestly, revamping the NCAA itself.

And what happened with UConn could be seen as a cautionary tale. In that game of musical chairs, it didn't get one of the available chairs - Pittsburgh did that time - and they (UConn) ended up on the outside looking in.

Pitt should not be feeling comfortable.

Every day is a step closer to 2036, and anytime between now and then, the music will stop. And when it does, there are a lot of other schools that will get a chair (an invite) before Pitt.

So if you want a seat at the table, you need to act now.

Waiting for a one-time payout from leaving members may be nice on the short term, but it's not bright for the long term.

So what are your options? B10 and SEC only seem to want the southern ACC schools. And what's left when they are done will not likely be part of P3 or 4 by any means.

Same with the PAC, plus it's on the other side of the country.

And as we are even still finding out (e.g. news about a Penn state offer leading to the additions of Maryland and Rutgers) - geography matters.

Will the Big12 likely survive? yes.

Kansas is in a similar situation as Pitt, and much of the rest of the B12 would seem to be only "desperation" invites. Other conferences: "We need a quick backfill, so we'll take the best we can."

And it's interesting that the B12 is grabbing so many of those "best of" options. Common consensus seems to be Memphis, SMU, and USF are the next best choices. Colorado state became less of one once Colorado appeared to possibly be on the table.

And would anyone leave the B12 for the PAC, for the same or less money and knowing that tomorrow the Big10 could invite 2-4 (or more) PAC schools and spoil your day?

So B12 is not likely going anywhere.

Plus the B12 now will have Cin and WV. Two long time rivals from the past.

And going to the B12, you suddenly are higher in the pecking order in a conference, and would likely have more of a voice going forward.

So based on all of the above, and more, joining the B12 would appear to be the best long term option Pittsburgh can make.

The only reasons I see against it is if you were to believe that the ACC is not going to be poached of it's 4 or more biggest brands/schools at some point between now and 2036. Does anyone seriously believe that?

And no backfill makes up for that. Especially since the B12 seems to be grabbing up all the best of the G5.

Plus, if the ACC was planning on sticking around they would have grabbed Cin and maybe others, to solidify regions, markets, and geography. But they haven't. One could argue that's due to the media deal, but I doubt that - media deals typically have expansion clauses. So it's likely because more members = more potential no votes when it's time for the wanna-be leavers to leave.

So ok, moving forward on this idea. the next thing you need to do is to create a pod to make scheduling easier, to make yourself even more attractive to the B12. So you bring Syracuse, and maybe Boston College along. With the added benefit that it turns their possible no votes into yes votes.

For the B12, that helps make WV and Cin happy. and is a pod of 4 or 5.

And add SMU, USF, and Memphis, and you (B12) lock down most of the rest of ACC's backfill options. And add Memphis to that eastern pod for 6 - that's a division.

That's 3 divisions of 6:

East - Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC, Cin, WV, Memphis
Central/FL - IA state, KS state, KS, OK state, USF, UCF
Texas/BYU - Baylor, TCU, SMU, Houston, Texas tech, BYU

Or arrange them however else.

And if 24 is the target, there's still room for a west division of the 4 corners, plus 2 more.

Yes, Pitt and Kansas would still be waiting and hoping for that B10 invite. But is it better for Pitt to wait in the ACC for that B10 invite that may never happen, and be left with only a few bad options the closer they get to 2036? Because it's doubtful if even the B12 would be willing or interested at that point. And suddenly Pitt feels a bit like UConn of the past. Looking at an ACC that looks a little too similar to the old AAC...

Or should they take advantage of the current realignment climate and see if they can negotiate a vote to leave now. And even better - leave as friends. Avoiding the previous animosity that we've seen between KS/MO, or cal to ucla, etc.

Anyway, I'm still wondering if anyone sees any downside to this. And so far, I'm only hearing short term advantages.

Can anyone think of any others?
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 03:51 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-04-2022 02:38 AM
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LeeNobody Offline
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Post: #23
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 02:38 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I like this thread, and everyone's responses.

Everyone has an opinion, and it's great - seeing those thoughts and opinions help get a cross-section of what you all think.

And I think that has value.

So for example, when I see some consider the 3 schools as "the bottom" and happy to see them go, yet others saying that playing those schools in the northeast has value - I think something can be assessed from that.

The three clearly have value, have things they bring to the table, but that value apparently is getting overlooked.

So let's look at this from Pittsburgh's point of view.

And for this, I'm going to presume that their leadership is not this: "Hey I don't care what happens on the long term - 2036 is a long ways off and by then I'll be off to my next job, so the losses will be someone else's headache. I'll just sit on my backside and pretend that there are no long term concerns to investigate, because nobody wants to hear that right now. I'll just take credit for keeping things where they are. Then I'll leave before the rough waters start."

By the way, in any company, a manager with that attitude should be fired.

So let's presume the leadership at Pittsburgh is as aware of things that are going on as we are (more, likely).

We see all over the internet that ACC/B12/PAC potentially being poached by B10 or SEC is what is driving things right now.

But the thing is, to be real, there are only so many "seats" available.

For example, not that long ago, people were talking about what G5 schools the B12 needed to survive. Memphis appears near the top of every short list.

But look what happened when the PAC schools appeared to be available. Suddenly Memphis is no longer a part of the conversation.

Even now that things "seem" to be cooling as far as the PAC and the B10, everyone is in a holding pattern. - Do you (B12) accept schools now, if you think PAC may still be available later? It's a conundrum.

And PAC not having a exit fee, and media rights nearing an end, really makes them seem the most vulnerable.

But the PAC isn't going to invite Pittsburgh for one of its open seats.

Neither is SEC. And Pitt would seem to be rather low on the list of B10's choices. These days, Kansas is even sounding higher.

Now add that to the current upheavals in the media industry - including a certain shift for more live and unscripted programming for ota broadcast - and sports is at the head of the line on that.

Plus the changes coming due to NIL, paying players, revamping the CFP, and honestly, revamping the NCAA itself.

And what happened with UConn could be seen as a cautionary tale. In that game of musical chairs, it didn't get one of the available chairs - Pittsburgh did that time - and they (UConn) ended up on the outside looking in.

Pitt should not be feeling comfortable.

Every day is a step closer to 2036, and anytime between now and then, the music will stop. And when it does, there are a lot of other schools that will get a chair (an invite) before Pitt.

So if you want a seat at the table, you need to act now.

Waiting for a one-time payout from leaving members may be nice on the short term, but it's not bright for the long term.

So what are your options? B10 and SEC only seem to want the southern ACC schools. And what's left when they are done will not likely be part of P3 or 4 by any means.

Same with the PAC, plus it's on the other side of the country.

And as we are even still finding out (e.g. news about a Penn state offer leading to the additions of Maryland and Rutgers) - geography matters.

Will the Big12 likely survive? yes.

Kansas is in a similar situation as Pitt, and much of the rest of the B12 would seem to be only "desperation" invites. Other conferences: "We need a quick backfill, so we'll take the best we can."

And it's interesting that the B12 is grabbing so many of those "best of" options. Common consensus seems to be Memphis, SMU, and USF are the next best choices. Colorado state became less of one once Colorado appeared to possibly be on the table.

And would anyone leave the B12 for the PAC, for the same or less money and knowing that tomorrow the Big10 could invite 2-4 (or more) PAC schools and spoil your day?

So B12 is not likely going anywhere.

Plus the B12 now will have Cin and WV. Two long time rivals from the past.

And going to the B12, you suddenly are higher in the pecking order in a conference, and would likely have more of a voice going forward.

So based on all of the above, and more, joining the B12 would appear to be the best long term option Pittsburgh can make.

The only reasons I see against it is if you were to believe that the ACC is not going to be poached of it's 4 or more biggest brands/schools at some point between now and 2036. Does anyone seriously believe that?

And no backfill makes up for that. Especially since the B12 seems to be grabbing up all the best of the G5.

Plus, if the ACC was planning on sticking around they would have grabbed Cin and maybe others, to solidify regions, markets, and geography. But they haven't. One could argue that's due to the media deal, but I doubt that - media deals typically have expansion clauses. So it's likely because more members = more potential no votes when it's time for the wanna-be leavers to leave.

So ok, moving forward on this idea. the next thing you need to do is to create a pod to make scheduling easier, to make yourself even more attractive to the B12. So you bring Syracuse, and maybe Boston College along. With the added benefit that it turns their possible no votes into yes votes.

For the B12, that helps make WV and Cin happy. and is a pod of 4 or 5.

And add SMU, USF, and Memphis, and you (B12) lock down most of the rest of ACC's backfill options. And add Memphis to that eastern pod for 6 - that's a division.

That's 3 divisions of 6:

East - Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC, Cin, WV, Memphis
Central/FL - IA state, KS state, KS, OK state, USF, UCF
Texas/BYU - Baylor, TCU, SMU, Houston, Texas tech, BYU

Or arrange them however else.

And if 24 is the target, there's still room for a west division of the 4 corners, plus 2 more.

Yes, Pitt and Kansas would still be waiting and hoping for that B10 invite. But is it better for Pitt to wait in the ACC for that B10 invite that may never happen, and be left with only a few bad options the closer they get to 2036? Because it's doubtful if even the B12 would be willing or interested at that point. And suddenly Pitt feels a bit like UConn of the past. Looking at an ACC that looks a little too similar to the old AAC...

Or should they take advantage of the current realignment climate and see if they can negotiate a vote to leave now. And even better - leave as friends. Avoiding the previous animosity that we've seen between KS/MO, or cal to ucla, etc.

Anyway, I'm still wondering if anyone sees any downside to this. And so far, I'm only hearing short term advantages.

Can anyone think of any others?

I understand the need for proactive longterm thinking, but i think pitt( and the other NE 3) would be better served building in the ACC than hoping on revenue in the supersized B12. Lets fast forward to 2032. ACC loses 6 FSU. Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. The remaining 8 teams will be decidedly more regional than what the b12 has to offer If this group wants to add WVU Cincinnati UCF USF Uconn Umass that would be far more enticing to both side.

I have advocated and I suspect ESPN is working on building a best of the rest conference in the ACC within 5 years. I would want it to be 28 but it may end up 21.
For 21 it would be a western 7 team division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State, Houston
For 28 it would be a west and central division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma state, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State

It will come down to how committed ESPN is to perserving its grip of CFB. From noon to midnight. This would be the at 75% the P2 rate, but would allow ESPN complete control and potentially sublet games out to other networks
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 05:54 AM by LeeNobody.)
08-04-2022 05:50 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #24
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 05:50 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I understand the need for proactive longterm thinking, but i think pitt( and the other NE 3) would be better served building in the ACC than hoping on revenue in the supersized B12. Lets fast forward to 2032. ACC loses 6 FSU. Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. The remaining 8 teams will be decidedly more regional than what the b12 has to offer If this group wants to add WVU Cincinnati UCF USF Uconn Umass that would be far more enticing to both side.

I have advocated and I suspect ESPN is working on building a best of the rest conference in the ACC within 5 years. I would want it to be 28 but it may end up 21.
For 21 it would be a western 7 team division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State, Houston
For 28 it would be a west and central division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma state, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State

It will come down to how committed ESPN is to perserving its grip of CFB. From noon to midnight. This would be the at 75% the P2 rate, but would allow ESPN complete control and potentially sublet games out to other networks

Ok, so thinking about this:

So first, based upon everything we're hearing, I'm pretty sure that FSU gets an invite somewhere before Georgia tech.

But ok, following your premise that 6 schools leave: ACC loses - Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Virginia Georgia tech.

Besides the 3 (Pitt, BC and Syracuse). that leaves - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech, and Georgia tech Louisville.

Oh, and Notre Dame, which, I think it's fair to say, goes back independent, once the other schools leave.

Somehow, I don't think schools from the B12 are going to leave the B12 for the same or less money to join - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech, and Louisville. (Even if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC are still there.)

Especially since any or all those southern schools (besides WF) are next choice expansion candidates for the SEC, and a couple are possible to Big10.

And I would not be surprised to see all 10 ACC southern schools end up in the SEC. B10 may try to get a few, but either way, that doesn't help Pitt at all.

So anyway, if you know that's what the ACC is likely to look like. I think it's time to choose where you want to be.

Leftover ACC, with members leaving, and more G5s joining every day?

And if we look, I think that the Big12 is already building that "best of the rest".

So I'm not surprised that espn has apparently taken a greater interest in the B12.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 08:33 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-04-2022 06:29 AM
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LeeNobody Offline
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Post: #25
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 06:29 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 05:50 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I understand the need for proactive longterm thinking, but i think pitt( and the other NE 3) would be better served building in the ACC than hoping on revenue in the supersized B12. Lets fast forward to 2032. ACC loses 6 FSU. Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. The remaining 8 teams will be decidedly more regional than what the b12 has to offer If this group wants to add WVU Cincinnati UCF USF Uconn Umass that would be far more enticing to both side.

I have advocated and I suspect ESPN is working on building a best of the rest conference in the ACC within 5 years. I would want it to be 28 but it may end up 21.
For 21 it would be a western 7 team division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State, Houston
For 28 it would be a west and central division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma state, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State

It will come down to how committed ESPN is to perserving its grip of CFB. From noon to midnight. This would be the at 75% the P2 rate, but would allow ESPN complete control and potentially sublet games out to other networks

But ok, following your premise that 6 schools leave: ACC loses - Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Virginia.

Besides the 3 (Pitt, BC and Syracuse). that leaves - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech/ Georgia tech.

Oh, and Notre Dame, which, I think it's fair to say, goes back independent, once the other schools leave.

Somehow, I don't think schools from the B12 are going to leave the B12 for the same or less money to join - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech, and Georgia tech. (Even if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC are still there.)
You double counted UVA in couting the losing 6. So the leftovers have either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech.
The team you forgot is Louisville
The leftover ACC would still be the appealing option to the eastern b12. The B12 is already adding G5 level replacements. UCF Houston and BYU are the best of the G5 but there viewership is closer to the rest of the b12 that the members of the p2. They are worse than atleast half of the leftover ACC. Given travel savings and past history, WVU Cincinnati and UCF would want to go east not west.
We are now talking about second tier football so look at the sunbelt cusa reallignment. Marshall, ODU and southern miss joined geographically more sensible divisions of the sunbelt EVEN though they also pulled up FCS school JMU. The geography or the ACC is more appealing than hoping on the left behind of the b12.
08-04-2022 07:42 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #26
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 07:42 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:29 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 05:50 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I understand the need for proactive longterm thinking, but i think pitt( and the other NE 3) would be better served building in the ACC than hoping on revenue in the supersized B12. Lets fast forward to 2032. ACC loses 6 FSU. Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. The remaining 8 teams will be decidedly more regional than what the b12 has to offer If this group wants to add WVU Cincinnati UCF USF Uconn Umass that would be far more enticing to both side.

I have advocated and I suspect ESPN is working on building a best of the rest conference in the ACC within 5 years. I would want it to be 28 but it may end up 21.
For 21 it would be a western 7 team division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State, Houston
For 28 it would be a west and central division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma state, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State

It will come down to how committed ESPN is to perserving its grip of CFB. From noon to midnight. This would be the at 75% the P2 rate, but would allow ESPN complete control and potentially sublet games out to other networks

But ok, following your premise that 6 schools leave: ACC loses - Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Virginia.

Besides the 3 (Pitt, BC and Syracuse). that leaves - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech/ Georgia tech.

Oh, and Notre Dame, which, I think it's fair to say, goes back independent, once the other schools leave.

Somehow, I don't think schools from the B12 are going to leave the B12 for the same or less money to join - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech, and Georgia tech. (Even if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC are still there.)
You double counted UVA in couting the losing 6. So the leftovers have either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech.
The team you forgot is Louisville
The leftover ACC would still be the appealing option to the eastern b12. The B12 is already adding G5 level replacements. UCF Houston and BYU are the best of the G5 but there viewership is closer to the rest of the b12 that the members of the p2. They are worse than atleast half of the leftover ACC. Given travel savings and past history, WVU Cincinnati and UCF would want to go east not west.
We are now talking about second tier football so look at the sunbelt cusa reallignment. Marshall, ODU and southern miss joined geographically more sensible divisions of the sunbelt EVEN though they also pulled up FCS school JMU. The geography or the ACC is more appealing than hoping on the left behind of the b12.

lol sorry, I was copying your text, and apparently missed "tech" from the next line. I just swapped in FSU for GA tech.

mea culpa : )

So yes, you're absolutely right. In my comments, just imagine GA tech (or VA tech) instead of the second VA, and then Louisville instead, for the remaining. - I'll edit my post : )

What do you think is more likely? That Cin and company leave the B12 to join an evacuating ACC, or that a few members from an evacuating ACC leave to join the B12?

I mean, that's what it comes down to.

And any of us could prognosticate on which way do we think the wind will blow at that point.

But if you're Pitt, right now, do you want to base your long-term strategy on that?

All things being equal, who's more likely to get poached after the initial 6? ACC or B12?

Other than KS (and maybe a "desperation" invite of Ok state or some texas school), it's unlikely any B12 schools are getting invites. it's the ACC. Once you get beyond the 3, ND, and WF, there's no guarantee that any of the other 10 schools are left in the ACC.

I don't think I'd bet my future on that.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 08:39 AM by Skyhawk.)
08-04-2022 08:29 AM
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Post: #27
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 08:29 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 07:42 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 06:29 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 05:50 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I understand the need for proactive longterm thinking, but i think pitt( and the other NE 3) would be better served building in the ACC than hoping on revenue in the supersized B12. Lets fast forward to 2032. ACC loses 6 FSU. Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. The remaining 8 teams will be decidedly more regional than what the b12 has to offer If this group wants to add WVU Cincinnati UCF USF Uconn Umass that would be far more enticing to both side.

I have advocated and I suspect ESPN is working on building a best of the rest conference in the ACC within 5 years. I would want it to be 28 but it may end up 21.
For 21 it would be a western 7 team division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State, Houston
For 28 it would be a west and central division
West: Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma state, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State

It will come down to how committed ESPN is to perserving its grip of CFB. From noon to midnight. This would be the at 75% the P2 rate, but would allow ESPN complete control and potentially sublet games out to other networks

But ok, following your premise that 6 schools leave: ACC loses - Clemson, UNC, UVA, Miami, FSU, and Virginia.

Besides the 3 (Pitt, BC and Syracuse). that leaves - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech/ Georgia tech.

Oh, and Notre Dame, which, I think it's fair to say, goes back independent, once the other schools leave.

Somehow, I don't think schools from the B12 are going to leave the B12 for the same or less money to join - WF, Duke, NC state, VA tech, and Georgia tech. (Even if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC are still there.)
You double counted UVA in couting the losing 6. So the leftovers have either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech.
The team you forgot is Louisville
The leftover ACC would still be the appealing option to the eastern b12. The B12 is already adding G5 level replacements. UCF Houston and BYU are the best of the G5 but there viewership is closer to the rest of the b12 that the members of the p2. They are worse than atleast half of the leftover ACC. Given travel savings and past history, WVU Cincinnati and UCF would want to go east not west.
We are now talking about second tier football so look at the sunbelt cusa reallignment. Marshall, ODU and southern miss joined geographically more sensible divisions of the sunbelt EVEN though they also pulled up FCS school JMU. The geography or the ACC is more appealing than hoping on the left behind of the b12.

lol sorry, I was copying your text, and apparently missed "tech" from the next line. I just swapped in FSU for GA tech.

mea culpa : )

So yes, you're absolutely right. In my comments, just imagine GA tech (or VA tech) instead of the second VA, and then Louisville instead, for the remaining. - I'll edit my post : )

What do you think is more likely? That Cin and company leave the B12 to join an evacuating ACC, or that a few members from an evacuating ACC leave to join the B12?

I mean, that's what it comes down to.

And any of us could prognosticate on which way do we think the wind will blow at that point.

But if you're Pitt, right now, do you want to base your long-term strategy on that?

All things being equal, who's more likely to get poached after the initial 6? ACC or B12?

Other than KS (and maybe a "desperation" invite of Ok state or some texas school), it's unlikely any B12 schools are getting invites. it's the ACC. Once you get beyond the 3, ND, and WF, there's no guarantee that any of the other 10 schools are left in the ACC.

I don't think I'd bet my future on that.

I would side with the ACC taking from the b12 as you have to remember that the ones making the decisions are university presidents. They are not risktakers they spent a career in academia. Thereis alot more academic clout in the acc than the b12. Even if the ACC lost 6 or even 8 schools. WVU , UCF, Cincinnati, and Kansas. Would be thrilled to be associated as academic peers to Pitt, Duke, Wake Forest, and Boston College. The biggest barrier to the move would be the egos on the ACC side, much like the Pac didnt want to take b12 schools.

College is as much about prestige as it is actual learning. The ciriculum is the same at for most majors accros universities. What makes prospecrive students pay more is the prestige. This comes from papers and grant money, and association.

Would you hire a business major from Princeton or Georgia Southern on a resume? Well if you said Princeton you got played as Princeron does not has a business school, but polls find that most would assume the Princeton grad from the fake school was the better applicant. At some level the peer instutions you have increase or decrease your prestige.


So yes the ACC and Pac will survive. Unless they can combine to form a more prestigious whole.
08-04-2022 10:57 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 10:57 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I would side with the ACC taking from the b12 as you have to remember that the ones making the decisions are university presidents. They are not risktakers they spent a career in academia. Thereis alot more academic clout in the acc than the b12. Even if the ACC lost 6 or even 8 schools. WVU , UCF, Cincinnati, and Kansas. Would be thrilled to be associated as academic peers to Pitt, Duke, Wake Forest, and Boston College. The biggest barrier to the move would be the egos on the ACC side, much like the Pac didnt want to take b12 schools.

College is as much about prestige as it is actual learning. The ciriculum is the same at for most majors accros universities. What makes prospecrive students pay more is the prestige. This comes from papers and grant money, and association.

Would you hire a business major from Princeton or Georgia Southern on a resume? Well if you said Princeton you got played as Princeron does not has a business school, but polls find that most would assume the Princeton grad from the fake school was the better applicant. At some level the peer instutions you have increase or decrease your prestige.

So yes the ACC and Pac will survive. Unless they can combine to form a more prestigious whole.

"WVU , UCF, Cincinnati, and Kansas. Would be thrilled to be associated as academic peers to Pitt, Duke, Wake Forest, and Boston College."

Well, if Pitt and BC joined the B12, their wishes could come true.

I understand your comments about prestige, but again, what good is that if they have a foot out the door? Duke may have prestige, but if they're in the Big10 or the SEC (not an impossible prospect), what good is that to Pitt?

I mean, you look at online preference lists, and Duke is more likely to the B10 than Pitt, and so are several other of the ACC, If that's true, then that's just longer that Pitt is left holding the bag with the other "left-overs" in the ACC.
08-04-2022 11:08 AM
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Post: #29
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
To me this smells like Temple's demand to the old BE for a vote on full membership or nothing. Temple got its vote, but not the outcome it wanted. First the ACC would have to release the three without having to pay the GOR penalties. Without that they can't afford to leave early.
Second, they would have to believe that an invitation into a P conference was guaranteed. The problem is these three are among the least likely to be invited to the new club. BC and SU are in the same boat as OSU and WSU; too far in the Northern corners and not enough return ($$ or recruiting area) to interest either the BIG or SEC. Pitt's problem is the BIG has passed on it multiple times, so its only option is the SEC, which just isn't happening.
So that means at best they would be leaving the ACC for a lateral move to the B12 or PAC. The travel in either would be killer. People were screaming about the travel for UCAL/USC in the BIG. How about being in a conference that stretches from Boston to Orlando, to Provo and no crosstown travel partners. Or better, your closest conference foe would be in Colorado.
At the end of the day, these three probably end up being left behind in the ACC, with WF possible Duke and a bunch of former BE/AAC schools in what will be the best of the G leagues. Personally I'm still not even convinced that Ville, VT and Miami are locks to survive the coming consolidation of power. I think one day the ACC will look a lot like the old BE, the B12 will look a lot like the original C-USA and the PAC will look a lot like the original WAC.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 03:04 PM by mikeinsec127.)
08-04-2022 03:02 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
Did Pittsburgh won the ACC championship last year? Wake forest and Duke are the weaker ones most years.
08-04-2022 03:24 PM
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 02:38 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I like this thread, and everyone's responses.

Everyone has an opinion, and it's great - seeing those thoughts and opinions help get a cross-section of what you all think.

And I think that has value.

So for example, when I see some consider the 3 schools as "the bottom" and happy to see them go, yet others saying that playing those schools in the northeast has value - I think something can be assessed from that.

The three clearly have value, have things they bring to the table, but that value apparently is getting overlooked.

So let's look at this from Pittsburgh's point of view.

And for this, I'm going to presume that their leadership is not this: "Hey I don't care what happens on the long term - 2036 is a long ways off and by then I'll be off to my next job, so the losses will be someone else's headache. I'll just sit on my backside and pretend that there are no long term concerns to investigate, because nobody wants to hear that right now. I'll just take credit for keeping things where they are. Then I'll leave before the rough waters start."

By the way, in any company, a manager with that attitude should be fired.

So let's presume the leadership at Pittsburgh is as aware of things that are going on as we are (more, likely).

We see all over the internet that ACC/B12/PAC potentially being poached by B10 or SEC is what is driving things right now.

But the thing is, to be real, there are only so many "seats" available.

For example, not that long ago, people were talking about what G5 schools the B12 needed to survive. Memphis appears near the top of every short list.

But look what happened when the PAC schools appeared to be available. Suddenly Memphis is no longer a part of the conversation.

Even now that things "seem" to be cooling as far as the PAC and the B10, everyone is in a holding pattern. - Do you (B12) accept schools now, if you think PAC may still be available later? It's a conundrum.

And PAC not having a exit fee, and media rights nearing an end, really makes them seem the most vulnerable.

But the PAC isn't going to invite Pittsburgh for one of its open seats.

Neither is SEC. And Pitt would seem to be rather low on the list of B10's choices. These days, Kansas is even sounding higher.

Now add that to the current upheavals in the media industry - including a certain shift for more live and unscripted programming for ota broadcast - and sports is at the head of the line on that.

Plus the changes coming due to NIL, paying players, revamping the CFP, and honestly, revamping the NCAA itself.

And what happened with UConn could be seen as a cautionary tale. In that game of musical chairs, it didn't get one of the available chairs - Pittsburgh did that time - and they (UConn) ended up on the outside looking in.

Pitt should not be feeling comfortable.

Every day is a step closer to 2036, and anytime between now and then, the music will stop. And when it does, there are a lot of other schools that will get a chair (an invite) before Pitt.

So if you want a seat at the table, you need to act now.

Waiting for a one-time payout from leaving members may be nice on the short term, but it's not bright for the long term.

So what are your options? B10 and SEC only seem to want the southern ACC schools. And what's left when they are done will not likely be part of P3 or 4 by any means.

Same with the PAC, plus it's on the other side of the country.

And as we are even still finding out (e.g. news about a Penn state offer leading to the additions of Maryland and Rutgers) - geography matters.

Will the Big12 likely survive? yes.

Kansas is in a similar situation as Pitt, and much of the rest of the B12 would seem to be only "desperation" invites. Other conferences: "We need a quick backfill, so we'll take the best we can."

And it's interesting that the B12 is grabbing so many of those "best of" options. Common consensus seems to be Memphis, SMU, and USF are the next best choices. Colorado state became less of one once Colorado appeared to possibly be on the table.

And would anyone leave the B12 for the PAC, for the same or less money and knowing that tomorrow the Big10 could invite 2-4 (or more) PAC schools and spoil your day?

So B12 is not likely going anywhere.

Plus the B12 now will have Cin and WV. Two long time rivals from the past.

And going to the B12, you suddenly are higher in the pecking order in a conference, and would likely have more of a voice going forward.

So based on all of the above, and more, joining the B12 would appear to be the best long term option Pittsburgh can make.

The only reasons I see against it is if you were to believe that the ACC is not going to be poached of it's 4 or more biggest brands/schools at some point between now and 2036. Does anyone seriously believe that?

And no backfill makes up for that. Especially since the B12 seems to be grabbing up all the best of the G5.

Plus, if the ACC was planning on sticking around they would have grabbed Cin and maybe others, to solidify regions, markets, and geography. But they haven't. One could argue that's due to the media deal, but I doubt that - media deals typically have expansion clauses. So it's likely because more members = more potential no votes when it's time for the wanna-be leavers to leave.

So ok, moving forward on this idea. the next thing you need to do is to create a pod to make scheduling easier, to make yourself even more attractive to the B12. So you bring Syracuse, and maybe Boston College along. With the added benefit that it turns their possible no votes into yes votes.

For the B12, that helps make WV and Cin happy. and is a pod of 4 or 5.

And add SMU, USF, and Memphis, and you (B12) lock down most of the rest of ACC's backfill options. And add Memphis to that eastern pod for 6 - that's a division.

That's 3 divisions of 6:

East - Pittsburgh, Syracuse, BC, Cin, WV, Memphis
Central/FL - IA state, KS state, KS, OK state, USF, UCF
Texas/BYU - Baylor, TCU, SMU, Houston, Texas tech, BYU

Or arrange them however else.

And if 24 is the target, there's still room for a west division of the 4 corners, plus 2 more.

Yes, Pitt and Kansas would still be waiting and hoping for that B10 invite. But is it better for Pitt to wait in the ACC for that B10 invite that may never happen, and be left with only a few bad options the closer they get to 2036? Because it's doubtful if even the B12 would be willing or interested at that point. And suddenly Pitt feels a bit like UConn of the past. Looking at an ACC that looks a little too similar to the old AAC...

Or should they take advantage of the current realignment climate and see if they can negotiate a vote to leave now. And even better - leave as friends. Avoiding the previous animosity that we've seen between KS/MO, or cal to ucla, etc.

Anyway, I'm still wondering if anyone sees any downside to this. And so far, I'm only hearing short term advantages.

Can anyone think of any others?

I can tell you exactly what Pitt thinks, and your ridiculous scenario of Pitt, BC, or Syracuse proactively leaving the ACC for the Big 12 has zero chance of even being considered. Z-E-R-O
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 04:32 PM by CrazyPaco.)
08-04-2022 04:27 PM
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Gamenole Offline
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 03:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Did Pittsburgh won the ACC championship last year? Wake forest and Duke are the weaker ones most years.

They did, Pitt and Wake Forest played for the ACC championship last year. And it's a perfect example of why they're concerned about their future once the ACC hostages are freed. Despite both schools having great seasons, their championship matchup drew over 1.5 million viewers less than any other P5 championship game, and 800,000 fewer than the AAC title game -

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2021/12...cc-big-ten
08-04-2022 05:31 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 05:31 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  
(08-04-2022 03:24 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Did Pittsburgh won the ACC championship last year? Wake forest and Duke are the weaker ones most years.

They did, Pitt and Wake Forest played for the ACC championship last year. And it's a perfect example of why they're concerned about their future once the ACC hostages are freed. Despite both schools having great seasons, their championship matchup drew over 1.5 million viewers less than any other P5 championship game, and 800,000 fewer than the AAC title game -

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2021/12...cc-big-ten


That could be the problem right there that they played against Wake forest. Wake is usually the weakest along with Duke as the leasted rated games on tv. Pitt going to the Big east might do a lot better tv wise, and a lot better recruiting. If the Big East basketball member schools would have been smart? They should have recruited UNC, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Virginia to kill the ACC off.
08-04-2022 10:12 PM
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Jericho Offline
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Post: #34
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
I don't know why Pitt, BC, or Syracuse would want to leave the ACC (except for the Big 10 or SEC which isn't happening). It makes no sense to me.

Although I'm not sure the ACC would vastly miss any of them, Pitt and Syracuse seem fine enough that I doubt the ACC wants them to leave either. Boston College on the other hand...
08-04-2022 10:29 PM
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Post: #35
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
Voluntarily leaving the conference that probably has at least ten more years before having to face departures would truly be silly.

Even thinking that in ten years there will be defections, it would still be far more attractive to rebuild the conference with a core of (using the example provided in this thread):

Pitt
BC
Syracuse
Louisville
Wake
Duke
NC State
Va Tech
or Ga Tech

This core would be attractive to Big XII members West Virginia, Cincy, and Central Florida. Finding one more to get to 12 (Memphis? USF? or another Big XII team?) -- who knows who that would be ten years from now.

This isn't the worst place to wind up.

And knowing this could exist when things fall apart versus not knowing what you would be jumping to "just so you could get a head start" ... well .. again, it seems silly.

Just my opinion.
08-04-2022 11:09 PM
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Eagle78 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 10:29 PM)Jericho Wrote:  I don't know why Pitt, BC, or Syracuse would want to leave the ACC (except for the Big 10 or SEC which isn't happening). It makes no sense to me.

Although I'm not sure the ACC would vastly miss any of them, Pitt and Syracuse seem fine enough that I doubt the ACC wants them to leave either. Boston College on the other hand...

Why? In FB (the sport that really matters), Boston College has been quite a bit more competitive in the ACC than Syracuse.

You are 100% correct that BC is very happy in the ACC and would never want to leave - certainly not for the B12 (even if that were possible).
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2022 11:22 PM by Eagle78.)
08-04-2022 11:19 PM
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panite Offline
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RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-03-2022 02:54 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  So lately, a lot of the talk seems to be about the southern ACC schools and their potential options for the P2.

I'd like to think the leaders of Pitt, Syracuse, and BC, are likely aware of that too.

And the B12 invite of Cin, to go with WV, has to look intriguing to them

What if they - with no invite in hand (yet) - called for a vote to release them from the conference, and all the responsibilities thereof.

Maybe set their departure date to 2024-ish, when TX and OK are set to leave the B12.

I think that it's quite possible the vote would pass.

For one thing, the conference seems to have mostly shifted south most of its members in the south - Which is why all (except maybe WF) seem to possibly have a chance at SEC membership

For another, I think the others, might like to see how the process turns out. (Thinking about the future.)

I don't think that those 3 leaving would affect the media deal, which likely means more money to go around, unless they backfill.

And this proactive step would put the 3 schools ahead of potential realignment moves, before they become after-thoughts.

I also think that the B12 are likely to take them, once they are available. And might invite Memphis and/or USF as well.

This still leaves room for inviting SMU, and potentially any PAC schools.

So my question is this:

What, if anything, are the negatives to these 3, in this scenario?

Not happening as, it would set a precedent for other schools like NC, Clemson, and FSU to leave. 07-coffee3
08-04-2022 11:23 PM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #38
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-03-2022 02:54 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  So lately, a lot of the talk seems to be about the southern ACC schools and their potential options for the P2.

I'd like to think the leaders of Pitt, Syracuse, and BC, are likely aware of that too.

And the B12 invite of Cin, to go with WV, has to look intriguing to them

What if they - with no invite in hand (yet) - called for a vote to release them from the conference, and all the responsibilities thereof.

Maybe set their departure date to 2024-ish, when TX and OK are set to leave the B12.

I think that it's quite possible the vote would pass.

For one thing, the conference seems to have mostly shifted south most of its members in the south - Which is why all (except maybe WF) seem to possibly have a chance at SEC membership

For another, I think the others, might like to see how the process turns out. (Thinking about the future.)

I don't think that those 3 leaving would affect the media deal, which likely means more money to go around, unless they backfill.

And this proactive step would put the 3 schools ahead of potential realignment moves, before they become after-thoughts.

I also think that the B12 are likely to take them, once they are available. And might invite Memphis and/or USF as well.

This still leaves room for inviting SMU, and potentially any PAC schools.

So my question is this:

What, if anything, are the negatives to these 3, in this scenario?

Thank you Skyhawk!!! I needed a post like this. One to make me think.

For Pittsburgh, I can see a lot of negatives. Miami is an old rival. How apt would they be to play Pittsburgh if Pitt left the conference?? What would Pittsburgh do for scheduling, streaming, media?? If I am Pittsburgh's president, I am staying in constant contact with Notre Dame and I would be in contact with Penn State as well. Truthfully, Pittsburgh would fit in either the B1G or the Big XII. But I agree with you that Pittsburgh needs to act now!!! West Virginia has been willing to play Pittsburgh again, so I would start with that angle, while simultaneously conversing with Notre Dame's president. But if Penn State's president/chancellor wanted to talk, I would definitely listen. If I feel reasonably confident of getting a Big 12 invitation, I would move/petition to be voted out of the conference, or I would jump on Clemson's, FSU's, and Miami's bandwagon of dissolving the ACC.

Syracuse is a slightly different story because they have a stronger case for B1G membership than Pittsburgh does, IMO. Syracuse can deliver a devoted New York fanbase to the B1G that they don't have with Rutgers. Syracuse also has a better relationship with Penn State than Pittsburgh does, and would deliver a storied basketball program for the B1G, something that the B1G should keep in mind especially should they lose the Kansas sweepstakes to the SEC. Worse scenario, Syracuse could piggyback with Pittsburgh to the Big 12.

Unlike the other two, I really don't see too many options for BC, and I am someone who has been known to look outside the box for answers. Probably the best thing BC could do is see if the Big East would take them back or if the American (AAC) would take them. BC also could just opt to stay with the ACC. Not too many options out there for the Eagles, I'm afraid.

Edit: there might be one option for BC that I didn't give much thought to before. Regardless though, BC asking for the ACC to expel them is an extremely bad idea for BC. However, should the ACC fall apart, and it probably will, BC could have an unconventional path back to the big boys tables, namely the B1G's table. Right now, BC should be applying for B1G hockey membership. The B1G could use some hockey programs and BC could use the connection to find a home for its other sports. Who knows? If BC plays its cards right, it's hockey program could help land BC a spot in the B1G for all sports.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2022 12:43 AM by DawgNBama.)
08-04-2022 11:50 PM
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Post: #39
RE: What if Pitt, Syracuse, and BC petitioned to be voted out/released from ACC?
(08-04-2022 11:50 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  Thank you Skyhawk!!! I needed a post like this. One to make me think.

For Pittsburgh, I can see a lot of negatives. Miami is an old rival. How apt would they be to play Pittsburgh if Pitt left the conference?? What would Pittsburgh do for scheduling, streaming, media?? If I am Pittsburgh's president, I am staying in constant contact with Notre Dame and I would be in contact with Penn State as well. Truthfully, Pittsburgh would fit in either the B1G or the Big XII. But I agree with you that Pittsburgh needs to act now!!! West Virginia has been willing to play Pittsburgh again, so I would start with that angle, while simultaneously conversing with Notre Dame's president. But if Penn State's president/chancellor wanted to talk, I would definitely listen. If I feel reasonably confident of getting a Big 12 invitation, I would move/petition to be voted out of the conference, or I would jump on Clemson's, FSU's, and Miami's bandwagon of dissolving the ACC.

Syracuse is a slightly different story because they have a stronger case for B1G membership than Pittsburgh does, IMO. Syracuse can deliver a devoted New York fanbase to the B1G that they don't have with Rutgers. Syracuse also has a better relationship with Penn State than Pittsburgh does, and would deliver a storied basketball program for the B1G, something that the B1G should keep in mind especially should they lose the Kansas sweepstakes to the SEC. Worse scenario, Syracuse could piggyback with Pittsburgh to the Big 12.

Unlike the other two, I really don't see too many options for BC, and I am someone who has been known to look outside the box for answers. Probably the best thing BC could do is see if the Big East would take them back or if the American (AAC) would take them. BC also could just opt to stay with the ACC. Not too many options out there for the Eagles, I'm afraid.

Edit: there might be one option for BC that I didn't give much thought to before. Regardless though, BC asking for the ACC to expel them is an extremely bad idea for BC. However, should the ACC fall apart, and it probably will, BC could have an unconventional path back to the big boys tables, namely the B1G's table. Right now, BC should be applying for B1G hockey membership. The B1G could use some hockey programs and BC could use the connection to find a home for its other sports. Who knows? If BC plays its cards right, it's hockey program could help land BC a spot in the B1G for all sports.

You're very welcome, and thank you : )

I agree about BC. The only real reason I added them to Pitt's exit strategy is to minimize the "no" votes - BC would be one of the few to vote no, I would think. And because it helps the "optics" for the rest of the conference, if they think they're removing all the northern teams, it might help "nudge" them to the yes vote.

Plus the vote is likely not going to "just" be a vote. There are usually negotiations that go along with this - kinda like a government legislative sub-committee.

All that said, I'll agree that BC has the weakest argument and/or position in this.

Hoping that ND might help them get a golden ticket to the Big10 may be possible, but rather highly unlikely. There are others ND would ask for before BC, I think.

That said, I also still don't think it's a great idea for them to ride this to the end like WF is likely to, but really I think their best option is to go the Uconn route - join a basketball conference and go independent in football. Maybe organize all these east coast fb independents into some sort of scheduling pact.

And that Hockey idea is very creative. Very interesting idea!

So just talking about Pitt and Syracuse - I agree with your points. The real problem both have is that, in this game of musical chairs, there seem to only be so many B10 seats available, and others are higher up on the list. - The PAC instability (and now, sudden availability) really upturned the applecart for all the wannabes. - So I think waiting in the B12, with like-minded Kansas, seems a smarter idea from that perspective as well.

I also think it would feel nice to be somewhere you can feel like you're building something in the meantime, than just feeling like you're biding your time til execution day.

I was looking at this thread:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-943149.html

Pitt is just below the middle of the ACC, and would be right in the middle of the current B12. Near the top, once TX and OK leave. Syracuse, just below that. None of the 4 incoming to the B12 are even close.

As for Miami - the new news/rumors seem to be that the top 3 next choices for the SEC are Clemson, Fl state, and Miami. So Miami's likely gone, regardless. But yes, stay in contact, regardless. I also think that leaving under these circumstances is less likely to burn bridges, so less hurt feelings = more likely to gain OOC scheduling.

And who knows, maybe Pitt and Miami re-meet in the 28-team B10 someday lol.
08-05-2022 02:13 AM
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