(08-03-2022 12:26 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 11:45 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  I see them in the Big 14 (12)
EAST
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Temple
ECU
UCF
USF
Memphis

WEST
Iowa State
Kansas State
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Tulane

TTU, Kansas, Ok St, and Houston to PAC-14

What’s wrong with ECU football?

(08-03-2022 11:45 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  I see them in the Big 14 (12)
EAST
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Temple
ECU
UCF
USF
Memphis

WEST
Iowa State
Kansas State
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Tulane

TTU, Kansas, Ok St, and Houston to PAC-14

That wouldn't be bad at all

(08-02-2022 09:34 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 09:32 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 09:24 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 09:22 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

The Big 12 can't afford to sit still with only 12 teams. They're going to have to expand to 16 in order to remain competitive from a viewership standpoint with the Big Ten and SEC.

Memphis has consistently been cited as the top team on the Big 12's wish list, and that's unlikely to change. When the Big 12 makes their move, Memphis will probably be the first to go.

This is more important in basketball than football due to the perception of getting a similar number of NCAA bids. However, the Big 12 will probably get 7-8 bids most years so it will be fine.

Disagree, because football drives the bus. The Big 12 commissioner has made it clear that the conference is actively considering expansion.

.

Somewhere, always with, Tulane.

Well the positive is both cities have outstanding victuals

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

I believe there are 65 power 5 schools right now as of today.

SEC 14
B1G 14
ACC 14
PAC 12
Big XII 10
Notre Dame

65 teams total.

Cincy Houston UCF have been add to the P5.

UConn and USF were once P6. (Temple Perhaps?)

That gives 70 total.

I think the SEC and B1G go to 20 a piece. Some big fish are still out there.

B1G adds Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington and Stanford (along with USC and UCLA)

SEC adds FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, and Virginia.

I am not definitive on the schools other than the obvious ones like Notre Dame, Oregon etc. but I think the magic number for both conferences is 20. There are about 8 more big fish out there to be gobbled up.

So if the B1G and SEC have 40 of the P5 schools then you got about 28 schools left. Enough for 2 more power conferences. The PAC will have been totally decimated and will be no more. You will have the Big XII poaching what’s left of the PAC 12. Perhaps schools like West Virginia Cincy and UCF joining a decimated ACC.

Will the New ACC and Big XII stop at 14 schools? 16? At that point schools like Memphis (Big XII or ACC), USF, UCONN (ACC) and San Diego State (Big XII) have a shot.

If I were Memphis I would follow the Path of UCF, UAB, San Diego State, and soon USF have taken and build an OCS. I like the little sombrero but it isn’t on campus. An ICS does wonders for a football program… school spirit, recruiting etc. and it helps in the realignment sweepstakes.

All of this will take years. The ACC has a GOR. The B1G can’t raid the PAC again too quickly or The PAC can go legal on them. This will take years.

All of this is just my educated guess. I could be dead wrong.

(08-04-2022 09:56 AM)jsw3ent Wrote:  

(08-03-2022 11:45 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  I see them in the Big 14 (12)
EAST
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Temple
ECU
UCF
USF
Memphis

WEST
Iowa State
Kansas State
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Tulane

TTU, Kansas, Ok St, and Houston to PAC-14

That wouldn't be bad at all

This would be better...

Baylor
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
SMU
TCU
West Virginia

Air Force
Boise State
BYU
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Texas Tech

When the dust settles, Memphis will be in the southwest corner of Tennessee, directly north of the Mississippi state line and touching the Mississippi River across from Arkansas.

Change my mind.

In either the AAC or AAC successor (60-70 percent chance) or an expanded Big 12 (30-40 percent chance). I really don't see any other options. The Pac 12 is a non-starter, and I just don't see Memphis in the ACC or SEC.

By the way, I give about the same odds for USF, except I give USF a slightly higher chance at ACC, particularly if the SEC takes Florida State or Miami.

This is an easy one. Memphis will be here:



And no one will really care outside the city

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

As a long-time Memphis fan, I want to be hopeful about the prospects for a quality league. But it's tough to be.

Now, and on a positive note, there are a handful of scenarios that could see the UofM land a slot in whatever the fourth-best all-sports league ends up being. That would not be bad.

Having the Liberty Bowl overhauled will help, as will continuing to be competitive in football.

I recall the days when Memphis, Cincinnati and Louisville were essentially "equal." But then Louisville made a concerted effort to elevate its football program and ... zoom, left UofM in the dust.

Cincinnati has some "built-in" advantages over Memphis (it's much better academically and offers on-campus football and basketball facilities) and has earned its spot in the future Big 12.

Our family (with grads of UC, UL and UM) sometimes talks about how the three universities have evolved since the 1970s. Memphis has created some of its own problems. Add some bad luck and circumstances beyond control and ...

... not good.

(08-04-2022 10:31 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  In either the AAC or AAC successor (60-70 percent chance) or an expanded Big 12 (30-40 percent chance). I really don't see any other options. The Pac 12 is a non-starter, and I just don't see Memphis in the ACC or SEC.

By the way, I give about the same odds for USF, except I give USF a slightly higher chance at ACC, particularly if the SEC takes Florida State or Miami.

So low on USF? 15 years ago they looked like the 4th FL program.

Unless Miami ends up forced to stay in ACC, I think USF is in a good position to get rewarded for their commitments like IPF and OCS (I think that is an overrated aspect, the payoff on that is decades as it grows student/alumni interest)

Either ACC backfills with USF, or the Big 12 (Big 16?) adds them. There are some in the Big 12 that want to focus on the east, feeling the 4 corners aren’t going anywhere. Either they come now, or come later, but it is immaterial, and no one is going to PAC. Getting the east well positioned is more critical. Adding USF preferred over Memphis.

This isn’t popular in Dallas, and I’d rather have CBS or NBC as media partners, but I’d prefer 10 Big 12 schools work to go to current ACC ASAP, with UCF as a replacement for FSU when needed, and USF as Miami’s replacement if needed (likely soon).

Assuming more than those two depart ACC, if 4 more ACC schools leave, down to 20, the 4 corners could be added, but Memphis makes as much sense as AZ imo.

I think the B12 should invite Memphis, SMU, and USF right away.

People can debate who the 4th should be. I think Rice and Temple are interesting choices.

Gets the rest of the "best of G5" schools in-conference before others try for them.

And if Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, or UConn became available, invite them immediately.

Don't do anything west while the PAC teams are mulling their options.

If I am Memphis, I do not give up on the Big 12. I would definitely look at getting an on-campus stadium and an IPF. I also would try to schedule all Big 12 members to my football stadium and my basketball arena. I see what the Big 12 is trying to do, and I like it. Become the "ACC" of the Midwest. I believe that Memphis will get in so long as they don't give up. FedEx should be all over this NIL stuff...it's tailor-made for a school like Memphis, IMO!!!!

The AAC

I think over the short term (before ACC is raided) odds are 90% AAC & 10% B12.

After ACC is raided I think odds go to 80% either ACC or B12, 15% AAC, 5% some other G5 conference ore newly created consolidation.

Unfortunately as a Memphis fan, I don’t see things happening quickly.

While I would love to be in a conference with Cincy & Louisville again, I don’t get some of the posts saying Cincy will end up in ACC. I agree I think they belong there over the B12, but ACC missed that opportunity & now that they are joining B12 that’s where they stay. I think the B12’s exit fees will keep any team from leaving to a league other than the SEC or B10.

(08-05-2022 06:47 AM)hk25 Wrote:  I think over the short term (before ACC is raided) odds are 90% AAC & 10% B12.

After ACC is raided I think odds go to 80% either ACC or B12, 15% AAC, 5% some other G5 conference ore newly created consolidation.

Unfortunately as a Memphis fan, I don’t see things happening quickly.

While I would love to be in a conference with Cincy & Louisville again, I don’t get some of the posts saying Cincy will end up in ACC. I agree I think they belong there over the B12, but ACC missed that opportunity & now that they are joining B12 that’s where they stay. I think the B12’s exit fees will keep any team from leaving to a league other than the SEC or B10.

People keep overlooking this. It will not be financially feasible for UC, WVU, UCF, etc to go to the ACC and it will not be financially feasible for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, etc. to go to the PAC12. The 8 BXII holdovers will receive $80M from Texas and Oklahoma when they depart to the SEC. It would be foolish to walk away from that payday to join one of the other two conferences.

(08-02-2022 07:47 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  When the dust settles-where is MEMPHIS?

Back in a conference with Louisville and Cincinnati ... just as it should be

Are Cinn and L'Ville heading back to the AAC? Will they anchor the AAC with USF, Temple, and ECU?

(08-05-2022 07:45 AM)panite Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 07:47 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  When the dust settles-where is MEMPHIS?

Back in a conference with Louisville and Cincinnati ... just as it should be

Are Cinn and L'Ville heading back to the AAC? Will they anchor the AAC with USF, Temple, and ECU?

P-Chop is essentially envisioning an ACC or Big 12 (or some other league) that emerges from future league realignment. There is no way UC or UL will allow themselves to be relegated to an AAC-level league at this point. At the least, I would hope Memphis can get no worse than current AAC membership.

(08-05-2022 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(08-05-2022 06:47 AM)hk25 Wrote:  I think over the short term (before ACC is raided) odds are 90% AAC & 10% B12.

After ACC is raided I think odds go to 80% either ACC or B12, 15% AAC, 5% some other G5 conference ore newly created consolidation.

Unfortunately as a Memphis fan, I don’t see things happening quickly.

While I would love to be in a conference with Cincy & Louisville again, I don’t get some of the posts saying Cincy will end up in ACC. I agree I think they belong there over the B12, but ACC missed that opportunity & now that they are joining B12 that’s where they stay. I think the B12’s exit fees will keep any team from leaving to a league other than the SEC or B10.

People keep overlooking this. It will not be financially feasible for UC, WVU, UCF, etc to go to the ACC and it will not be financially feasible for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, etc. to go to the PAC12. The 8 BXII holdovers will receive $80M from Texas and Oklahoma when they depart to the SEC. It would be foolish to walk away from that payday to join one of the other two conferences.

I feel very optimistic about UC's future, C-Ave. In some respects, being a Big 12 member will be preferable to having been a Big East member.

(08-05-2022 03:59 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  If I am Memphis, I do not give up on the Big 12. I would definitely look at getting an on-campus stadium and an IPF. I also would try to schedule all Big 12 members to my football stadium and my basketball arena. I see what the Big 12 is trying to do, and I like it. Become the "ACC" of the Midwest. I believe that Memphis will get in so long as they don't give up. FedEx should be all over this NIL stuff...it's tailor-made for a school like Memphis, IMO!!!!

Memphis already has a state-of-the-art brand new IPF.

And plans are in the works to tear down half the Liberty Bowl and rebuild it new. OCS might pop if we ever climb up again, but not before. The Liberty Bowl is so close to campus (less than 2 miles) that it really doesn't make a lot of sense.

We are trying to schedule anybody in the Top 25 or 30 who will play us in basketball (we have 5 games this season).

In football, we are trying to schedule SEC teams but get few takers.

And we're something like 7th in the number of NIL deals so far (not amount, though).

(08-05-2022 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(08-05-2022 06:47 AM)hk25 Wrote:  I think over the short term (before ACC is raided) odds are 90% AAC & 10% B12.

After ACC is raided I think odds go to 80% either ACC or B12, 15% AAC, 5% some other G5 conference ore newly created consolidation.

Unfortunately as a Memphis fan, I don’t see things happening quickly.

While I would love to be in a conference with Cincy & Louisville again, I don’t get some of the posts saying Cincy will end up in ACC. I agree I think they belong there over the B12, but ACC missed that opportunity & now that they are joining B12 that’s where they stay. I think the B12’s exit fees will keep any team from leaving to a league other than the SEC or B10.

People keep overlooking this. It will not be financially feasible for UC, WVU, UCF, etc to go to the ACC and it will not be financially feasible for Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, etc. to go to the PAC12. The 8 BXII holdovers will receive $80M from Texas and Oklahoma when they depart to the SEC. It would be foolish to walk away from that payday to join one of the other two conferences.

The exit fee just means you need enough to have a home.

But espn would have to be involved, because no one is leaving for PAC. So ESPN would first have to make a compelling offer to go east to enough schools to get dissolution- the schools leaving giving up exit fees from OUT, plus the remaining ones giving up OUT plus others.

And, given the bait and switch risk, and being stuck on ESPN behind SEC, ESPNs offer would need to compete with what an eventual Big 24 could get on other providers. We’ll know more soon on that when we know who has a part of BIG