Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

If this thread was made 6 weeks ago, Big XII.

Today, AAC.

If the Pac-12 takes any Big 12 schools, then Memphis will be in prime position to be in the Big 12.

Otherwise, it will be the AAC or whatever is the spiritual successor to the AAC (similar to how the AAC turned into the spiritual successor to the old C-USA).

It’s too bad since Memphis has an excellent fan base and great basketball brand in a good-sized market. They just seem to always be perpetually next in line for a power conference invite, but then someone jumps ahead of them or power league priorities shift.

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

They’ll be in Tennessee.

Sharing a conference with Tulane...

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  When the dust settles-where is MEMPHIS?

Back in a conference with Louisville and Cincinnati ... just as it should be

(08-02-2022 06:58 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

They’ll be in Tennessee.

If the dust is settling from the New Madrid fault, it could be Arkansas.

(08-02-2022 07:57 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:58 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  Thoughts -in-out -2nd tier- 3rd tier ?

They’ll be in Tennessee.

If the dust is settling from the New Madrid fault, it could be Arkansas.

Given how bad that fault is, it might even be Louisiana!

Best case is being included in 3rd super conference.

-One way is the Big 12 adds 4 corners to become base of 3rd super conference, and the ACC get liquidated to P2 to the point only 6 are available. Memphis would make the most sense to be #23 and USF #24 imo.

-The second way is ESPN executes a bait and switch around the ACC.

Say, 4 corners think they have a free option and can wait, maybe even sign a short GOR.

With no expansion west, ESPN baits WVU and Cincy to jump to the uncertain ACC, KU follows because UNC told ESPN they will die in the ACC before giving up their pond, and a basketball centric ACC best preserves KU's brand. 10 Big 12 end up in ACC to get dissolution and growth of ACC Network in new markets that love college sports.

At some point, the switch occurs, with at least 4 football schools to P2, because Miami and FSU would go suicidal on the ACC/ESPN if not in P2 and to get above UCF. VT, FSU, Miami, Clemson all to SEC. UVa goes BIG to keep up with VT, and manages to pull along UNC and Duke. NC St goes to SEC to give SECN a foothold in NC. (UNC may be more likely to go SEC with NCSt, or even get a LHN type gift from ESPN to stay in ACC with Duke, but this is a Memphis best case).

That leaves 6 ACC plus likely 10 Big 12. The 4 corners become free as the BIG can now move in the west knowing it has room for all 4 of Stanford, Cal, UW, Oregon (and ND btw). This assumes something like KU is not also added to SEC, but the need to do that soon goes down if BIG has UNC and Duke imo

Maybe the "ACC" stays at 20, but with ACCNet, they could justify G5s in new markets. Memphis, USF, SDSU etc could work their way to ACC. In this scenario, Memphis is taking the place of some of KSU/ISU/BYU/Oregon St/WSU (although one of those will likely make it)

Until the Liberty Bowl is fully renovated, the AAC.

Well, let's sayBig Ten and SEC ultimately expand to 24 each and the ACC/PAC/Big 12 consolidate into a 24-team best of the rest conference. That's 72 teams total. Assuming 69 of those are the current P5 schools, that leaves 3 schools from the G5 that could be included. That candidates probably are for those 3 spots include

SDSU, Hawaii, UNLV, BOISE
Memphis, SMU, USF

If I had to guess, the 3 G5 teams that would make it into the 24-team Best of the Rest conference would be SDSU, Memphis and USF.

Memphis will eventually be in the Big XII.

-- SEC raids ACC.

-- ACC backfills with Cincy, West Virginia, Central Florida.

-- Big XII backfills with Memphis and others.

(08-02-2022 07:47 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 06:36 PM)jsw3ent Wrote:  When the dust settles-where is MEMPHIS?

Back in a conference with Louisville and Cincinnati ... just as it should be

Amen, those river cities have their own vibe that makes it a unique relationship. By the way, if you took the major “non-flagship” public of every state within the southeastern borders of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, it is a heck of an athletic conference. Someone will say this is rubbish because of academics, markets, traditional rivalries, and so on, but just let it be a pure college athletic conference for the moment:

Memphis
Louisville
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
North Carolina State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Auburn (I know they essentially are their own flagship, too, but play along)
Mississippi State

10 schools who play round robin (9 games) and their in-state “flagship” rival (10th game) with two open games per year to do as they want. That’s a great league in essentially all of the sports that move the needle, not to mention proximity that promotes easier travel to follow your team.

This long-time Memphis fan will weigh in but will wait to see if a few more posters offer their thoughts.

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The Big 12 can't afford to sit still with only 12 teams. They're going to have to expand to 16 in order to remain competitive from a viewership standpoint with the Big Ten and SEC.

Memphis has consistently been cited as the top team on the Big 12's wish list, and that's unlikely to change. When the Big 12 makes their move, Memphis will probably be the first to go.

I'm starting to believe there won't be any more movement for a few years (except for Gonzaga to the Big East) at the top of Division 1.

However, in about 8 years, when ND is up for its next extension with NBC; if the latter says no to another huge raise, I could see ND joining the B1G with Stanford only, and UNC and Clemson joining the SEC.
Possible ramifications of that:

SDSU to Pac-12
ACC stays put
Big 12 stays put
MW adds UTEP

Long story short: Memphis is still in the AAC either way.

(08-02-2022 09:22 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

The Big 12 can't afford to sit still with only 12 teams. They're going to have to expand to 16 in order to remain competitive from a viewership standpoint with the Big Ten and SEC.

Memphis has consistently been cited as the top team on the Big 12's wish list, and that's unlikely to change. When the Big 12 makes their move, Memphis will probably be the first to go.

This is more important in basketball than football due to the perception of getting a similar number of NCAA bids. However, the Big 12 will probably get 7-8 bids most years so it will be fine.

I think they stay in the AAC or maybe end up in a tweener conference made up of P5 left behinds and the most valuable G5 teams. I think Silverfield is an average (at best) coach. Until there’s a new football coach, I’d expect middle/upper-middle of the pack performances, attendance, and viewership numbers (when compared against the rest of the AAC). Add in that the UM alumni/fanbase isnt particularly large in any sizeable cities outside of Memphis, and I don’t see a compelling reason for any of the current P5 conferences to take UM over SMU/SDSU/USF/Boise or not just sit tight.

It is all really unfortunate. Memphis probably missed the B12 by one spot this last round. That is what they were told and to "be ready".

Memphis fans and administration are sick about it. I know inside the administration Memphis felt very good about being added to Big 12 when OU/TX left....but now with PAC unstable they likely have hit the brakes on that.

So many things going well for the the university.

-R1 Designation this past year. Improved academically a ton.
-LB stadium renovation 2024-25
-Most AAC football wins since 2014
-46-8 home record since 2014 is 7th best in college football
-Solid basketball program
-Passionate fanbase and solid attendance
-Nice TV market that is passionate about college sports.

They deserve to be with Cincy, Houston, UCF. Those are their peers and I think those fanbases would even say so.

Some selective information here since Memphis football got rolling in 2014 ....but they are 5-1 in last 6 against Houston. 5-1 in last 6 against Cincy. UCF has had Memphis number. Ha Ha. I don't say any of that out of disrespect against Houston or Cincy....more of respect and just that Memphis has represented themselves well lately. I don't think people realize how good of a run Memphis football has been on.

I think the world of Cincy, Houston, and UCF....I just believe Memphis should be with them.

If PAC stays together or by chance the PAC poaches the B12 you would guess Memphis is next in line for B12. That is best option for Memphis and perfect geography fit.

If Big 12 doesn't materialize...then maybe next opportunity is with future ACC remnants when ACC gets picked apart by SEC/Big10.

Like I said...just really unfortunate and frustrating.

(08-02-2022 09:24 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(08-02-2022 09:22 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

The Big 12 can't afford to sit still with only 12 teams. They're going to have to expand to 16 in order to remain competitive from a viewership standpoint with the Big Ten and SEC.

Memphis has consistently been cited as the top team on the Big 12's wish list, and that's unlikely to change. When the Big 12 makes their move, Memphis will probably be the first to go.

This is more important in basketball than football due to the perception of getting a similar number of NCAA bids. However, the Big 12 will probably get 7-8 bids most years so it will be fine.

Disagree, because football drives the bus. The Big 12 commissioner has made it clear that the conference is actively considering expansion.

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