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Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
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curtis0620 Online
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Post: #61
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
I still think there will be 3 conferences of 24 teams each. P3
08-02-2022 03:40 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
[/quote]


If the Big 10 takes those four PAC schools the corner 4 (ASU/AU/CU/UU) jump to the Big 12 and the Big 12 sits at 16. They could then take Pitt/GT/Miami/Louisville.

Schools left out: Washington St/Oregon St from the PAC, Wake Forest/Syracuse/Boston College from the ACC. The ACC could rebuild with UConn/UMass/Temple/etc. and still have a solid academic league.
[/quote]

I agree- the B12 to get to 20 would take Pitt (down the road from WV), Louisville (a no brainer with Cinci) -
GT and Miami would certainly make sense
08-02-2022 03:44 PM
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Alanda Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Wouldn't it be as likely if not more that the SEC would "fund" certain ACC teams to help them exit the GoR early instead of taking those four you mention?
08-02-2022 04:25 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 04:25 PM)Alanda Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Wouldn't it be as likely if not more that the SEC would "fund" certain ACC teams to help them exit the GoR early instead of taking those four you mention?

I think ESPN would work that out. They are the rights holders, and they own the same percentage of both. If they can consider their own position whole, then the only true damages would arise from either loss of playoff access, or bowl access, or legitimate lost revenue for the duration of the contract. Exit fees would apply, but if ESPN retains the rights by honoring the ACC's contracted payouts, and if ESPN chose to pay the difference to schools moved to the SEC, and should ACC members keep contacted bowls and have access to the CFP and Hoops tourney, I just don't see where damages would come in. If the SEC and departing schools covered exit fees, I really don't see what a lawsuit could claim. The SEC could front 250 million (roughly half the exit fees) and simply withhold 5 million a year from the 4 schools each year until it was repaid.

No school in the ACC would lose revenue or scheduled increases for the duration of their contract. Nor would they lose access. No damage, no damages. Four schools out, and four schools in. Cincinnati, West Virginia, South Florida, Central Florida.

Now if ESPN truly wanted to keep the ACC intact and wanted to use the SEC to sew up more product to the West then the network would incentivize the SEC to possibly add 4 to the West (particular schools would be debatable).
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 04:58 PM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 04:38 PM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Great, even better.

The point being, that would still represent the networks cleaning up the mess largely started by conferences.

This is largely giving people what they want, hence why the networks want them.

And the networks unknowingly care more about a big enough tent ecosystem and the macros far more than schools and conferences which have been more self-serving in nature.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 04:42 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-02-2022 04:40 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 04:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Great, even better.

The point being, that would still represent the networks cleaning up the mess largely started by conferences.

This is largely giving people what they want, hence why the networks want them.

And the networks unknowingly care more about a big enough tent ecosystem and the macros far more than schools and conferences which have been more self-serving in nature.

It's been all network driven since 2010. In 1990-2 it was conference instigated as market footprints meant more money, so you could say the network lure was present, but truthfully the dance had just started, and the partners weren't quite sure who had the lead. Since the late 90's networks learned how to manipulate moves. 2010-2 was the zenith of that manipulation. The cleanup is now incumbent upon networks at the behest of concerned conferences. You have it backwards. Which network do you work for? Nice attempt at revisionism though!
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 04:48 PM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 04:46 PM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
The sec could jump to 24 with western expansion and have 4 pods of 6:

UK, UT, Vandy, UGA, Scar, UF

Ala, aub, Ole Miss, Miss st, LSU, Ark

Texas, T A&M, Okla, Ok state, Missouri, Kansas

Arizona, Ariz State, Colorado, Utah, X, X

X pool = Texas tech, Washington, Oreg, Cal, New Mex, SD state

It might be better to rebrand the 2 western pods SWC but have 1 governance structure running things.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 06:34 PM by bluesox.)
08-02-2022 06:32 PM
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Big 12 fan too Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 04:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 04:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Great, even better.

The point being, that would still represent the networks cleaning up the mess largely started by conferences.

This is largely giving people what they want, hence why the networks want them.

And the networks unknowingly care more about a big enough tent ecosystem and the macros far more than schools and conferences which have been more self-serving in nature.

It's been all network driven since 2010. In 1990-2 it was conference instigated as market footprints meant more money, so you could say the network lure was present, but truthfully the dance had just started, and the partners weren't quite sure who had the lead. Since the late 90's networks learned how to manipulate moves. 2010-2 was the zenith of that manipulation. The cleanup is now incumbent upon networks at the behest of concerned conferences. You have it backwards. Which network do you work for? Nice attempt at revisionism though!

The conferences had agency. Don't make the SEC sound so weak!

The networks were the banks.

Are you sure you are not revisioning things? Don't make me quote those long plans and attempts you've talked about- I believe mentioning Ark and A&M as buildup to UT?

The SEC is as complicit as any network. But if you're saying the SEC no longer has agency and control over itself, and is now just slave to ESPN, I think there is some truth to that this round. Such things occur when you make a deal with the devil, right?

In the end, the process needs to finish- the difference between consolidation growing the sport and just bad M&A is in achieving the macros the networks desire. That desire may be for profit, but a positive nevertheless as it brings together a big enough tent to mitigate some of the conference M&A of the last 30 years
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 08:48 PM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-02-2022 08:40 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 08:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 04:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 04:40 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Great, even better.

The point being, that would still represent the networks cleaning up the mess largely started by conferences.

This is largely giving people what they want, hence why the networks want them.

And the networks unknowingly care more about a big enough tent ecosystem and the macros far more than schools and conferences which have been more self-serving in nature.

It's been all network driven since 2010. In 1990-2 it was conference instigated as market footprints meant more money, so you could say the network lure was present, but truthfully the dance had just started, and the partners weren't quite sure who had the lead. Since the late 90's networks learned how to manipulate moves. 2010-2 was the zenith of that manipulation. The cleanup is now incumbent upon networks at the behest of concerned conferences. You have it backwards. Which network do you work for? Nice attempt at revisionism though!

The conferences had agency. Don't make the SEC sound so weak!

The networks were the banks.

Are you sure you are not revisioning things? Don't make me quote those long plans and attempts you've talked about- I believe mentioning Ark and A&M as buildup to UT?

The SEC is as complicit as any network. But if you're saying the SEC no longer has agency and control over itself, and is now just slave to ESPN, I think there is some truth to that this round. Such things occur when you make a deal with the devil, right?

In the end, the process needs to finish- the difference between consolidation growing the sport and just bad M&A is in achieving the macros the networks desire. That desire may be for profit, but a positive nevertheless as it brings together a big enough tent to mitigate some of the conference M&A of the last 30 years

Now the blame is spread a bit more appropriately, at least enough for us to be inside the same ballpark. The plans Kramer hatched were all SEC. What subsequent commissioners did or didn't accomplish is more of a collusion than agency, ending now as you point out in a Faustian bargain, and it's no different for Warren and FOX. The SEC and Big 10 are clearly proxies in a larger fight. We set loose parameters and the networks shoehorn in pieces accordingly and by telling us how much more we get they set us up as they desire. Our guidelines, their picks.

Now if this wraps up in 3 conferences 2 of which are dominant, we will likely end up with 56 in a decade instead of 48. In that final adjustment I think all viable rivalries will be accounted for. And that will be a good thing. It will still be national, and what people miss here in analysis is that fewer schools make it less confusing and easier to follow for the common fan so small market schools whose fans ae disenfranchised will likely be more than compensated by casual viewers of the smaller field.

And the quality stays higher if fewer schools can utilize more quality athletes, and that's not just a good thing, it is an essential thing in a country where fewer boys play team contact sports.
08-02-2022 09:04 PM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 06:32 PM)bluesox Wrote:  The sec could jump to 24 with western expansion and have 4 pods of 6:

UK, UT, Vandy, UGA, Scar, UF

Ala, aub, Ole Miss, Miss st, LSU, Ark

Texas, T A&M, Okla, Ok state, Missouri, Kansas

Arizona, Ariz State, Colorado, Utah, X, X

X pool = Texas tech, Washington, Oreg, Cal, New Mex, SD state

It might be better to rebrand the 2 western pods SWC but have 1 governance structure running things.

I think your first 18 work fine (current SEC plus OK state and KS)

Add 10 from the ACC - the NC/VA cluster of 5, plus Louisville, Clemson, Georgia tech, FSU, and Miami, and that's 28.

At this point, no real reason to expand into the southwest.

As for the rest of the ACC, ND to B10 or independent; Pitt (and maybe Syracuse) to B12; BC maybe to BEast; and WF to whomever takes them.

And we have P4 (really, P2+2). If B10 and B12 split the PAC then it'll be P2+1...
08-03-2022 12:41 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
Seems the easiest thing to do and reduce corporate paperwork and expenses, would be for the SEC and ACC to merge and create a 30 school super conference along with ESPN in charge of the broadcasting rights. Since so many of the schools are already playing schools in both conferences it would be far more profitable to have one conference retain what is the largest viewership in the country.
The B1G could do the same with PAC and Big XII schools but they more than likely would need to reduce the AAU status as a requirement for admission, yet still having the best programs available. After all, They likely are forming a 2 Super Conference breakaway from the NCAA in all sports. Keeps 60 schools, states,FOX and ESPN happy . But it likely won't become a reality even though corporate mergers are common place these days
08-03-2022 06:30 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 06:30 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Seems the easiest thing to do and reduce corporate paperwork and expenses, would be for the SEC and ACC to merge and create a 30 school super conference along with ESPN in charge of the broadcasting rights. Since so many of the schools are already playing schools in both conferences it would be far more profitable to have one conference retain what is the largest viewership in the country.
The B1G could do the same with PAC and Big XII schools but they more than likely would need to reduce the AAU status as a requirement for admission, yet still having the best programs available. After all, They likely are forming a 2 Super Conference breakaway from the NCAA in all sports. Keeps 60 schools, states,FOX and ESPN happy . But it likely won't become a reality even though corporate mergers are common place these days

Honestly... I mean what is that a 26 vs 30 split with maybe KU ND and a couple more going to the B1G? That's probably the most sensible solution to foster a full breakaway.

I know the Big 12 guys don't want to hear it. I mean, maybe additional Big 12 schools can be sent here or there like ISU to B1G and OSU to SEC, but that would be a mass consolidation that would save the networks a lot of money if we had unequal revenue distribution based on performance instead of history.

Just goes to show, any time you have mass consolidation like this, it means that the money is tightening and financial gains are waning. There are not gobbles of cash sitting around to chase college football. Otherwise we'd see expanded viewerships and additional G5 schools breaking into the power ranks organically. That could still be the trajectory, but we are far flung from that at the moment.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 06:49 AM by RUScarlets.)
08-03-2022 06:46 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 06:46 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:30 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Seems the easiest thing to do and reduce corporate paperwork and expenses, would be for the SEC and ACC to merge and create a 30 school super conference along with ESPN in charge of the broadcasting rights. Since so many of the schools are already playing schools in both conferences it would be far more profitable to have one conference retain what is the largest viewership in the country.
The B1G could do the same with PAC and Big XII schools but they more than likely would need to reduce the AAU status as a requirement for admission, yet still having the best programs available. After all, They likely are forming a 2 Super Conference breakaway from the NCAA in all sports. Keeps 60 schools, states,FOX and ESPN happy . But it likely won't become a reality even though corporate mergers are common place these days

Honestly... I mean what is that a 26 vs 30 split with maybe KU ND and a couple more going to the B1G? That's probably the most sensible solution to foster a full breakaway.

I know the Big 12 guys don't want to hear it. I mean, maybe additional Big 12 schools can be sent here or there like ISU to B1G and OSU to SEC, but that would be a mass consolidation that would save the networks a lot of money if we had unequal revenue distribution based on performance instead of history.

Just goes to show, any time you have mass consolidation like this, it means that the money is tightening and financial gains are waning. There are not gobbles of cash sitting around to chase college football. Otherwise we'd see expanded viewerships and additional G5 schools breaking into the power ranks organically. That could still be the trajectory, but we are far flung from that at the moment.

It's more nuanced than this here as, once again, we have to look at data like viewership in terms of the broader context of the entire entertainment industry as opposed to a vacuum. We have to remember that EVERYTHING on TV is getting lower viewership with every passing year, but college football and sports in general are actually retaining a much higher level of those viewers than every single other type of program on TV. This means that on a *relative* basis compared to everything else on TV, college football is stronger than ever. Both the Big Ten and SEC have multiple games per year that draw more viewers than EVERY regularly scheduled prime time TV program on OTA network television COMBINED.

It's not that the money is consolidating within sports, but rather the TV networks are shifting much more of their spending from other types of TV shows TO sports. The proper comparison isn't whether more people are watching the Big Ten or SEC game of the week compared to a decade ago, but rather where does the Big Ten or SEC game of the week rank compared to every other program on TV compared to a decade ago. The latter figure has actually *skyrocketed*, which is why rights fees are exploding and streaming services like Amazon want to get in on the action. This is the single most important item that sports fans NEED to remember whenever they want to understand what's going on with media rights (and not just in college sports, but in pro sports like the NFL and NBA).

Money is also consolidating into a smaller number of brands in the entertainment industry. We see this pretty directly in the movie theaters: any movie with any sort of substantial budget is a franchise. Entertainment companies with scarce dollars don't want to take material bets on something new. That's right in line with what we're seeing in college sports and the focus on the top brands.
08-03-2022 09:30 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:31 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:32 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:57 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  I believe ND has already declined the B1G to retain Their independence while still making a very large contract with NBC.
The reported PAC 4-6 year media rights likely will be the reason that these 4 are going to be on their way East with USC, UCLA sooner then later if it holds true

I agree: Maintaining its current status is still Notre Dame's first choice. For the B1G the most immediate decision this affects is how many schools to invite in the next wave. The terms of both ND and B1G media contracts have to enable these choices, of course. That sets the timetable.

ND's preference for staying around is the biggest bargaining chip the ACC has right now with its media partner. Whatever becomes of that, the revenue gap has opened too wide to prevent the eventual departure of 4-8 ACC member schools.

Growing with 4 more PAC schools makes the math a little easier to go to 24 as well. There are 5 ACC AAU schools: UVA/UNC/Duke/GT/Pitt. When the Big 10 goes to 24 it can simply take UVA/UNC/Duke and ND and be done [not sure GT/Pitt move the needle as much, no offense to either school.]

That also means that the SEC would wind up with NC State as the consolation (I think they may prefer VT over UVA anyway). NC State/VT/FSU/Clemson.

If the Big 10 takes those four PAC schools the corner 4 (ASU/AU/CU/UU) jump to the Big 12 and the Big 12 sits at 16. They could then take Pitt/GT/Miami/Louisville.

Schools left out: Washington St/Oregon St from the PAC, Wake Forest/Syracuse/Boston College from the ACC. The ACC could rebuild with UConn/UMass/Temple/etc. and still have a solid academic league.

You consistently underestimate your own conference. Just because there are only 5 AAU schools left in the ACC doesn't mean they automatically will go to the Big 10, or that the SEC will simply settle for N.C. State. It would be more likely since the SEC had 8 slots left to 24 (if that even matters) that we would offer Duke, UNC, and N.C. State to stop the B1G in Virginia. We would still have enough slots left to take Clemson, FSU, Miami and Georgia Tech with one left for a Virginia school, Louisville or Kansas, or even N.D. since the as of now seem to prefer independence, you know another deal could be worked out by ESPN, who by the way holds rights to all of these schools until 2036 and can facilitate whatever it might wish to do to retain those rights where they also currently hold 100% of the rights (SEC).

Perhaps the B1G does get 3 AAU's and ND. (Kansas, Missouri, Pitt & the Irish). Now the SEC has room for both Virginia's and a solid Souteast to Southwest where if we ever decided the end game was 28 you could add Baylor, T.C.U., Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and play monopoly with Florid and Texas recruiting.07-coffee3

Expanding the SEC in this way also solves the UNC/NCSU and VT/UVA political problems as well as keeping the Duke/UNC/UVA block intact. I've said it before but the state of NC is very unique in terms of market shares. Yes, UNC is the dominant brand but there's a significant stratification beyond UNC between NCSU, Duke and even ECU, App State, Clemson and VT depending on what part of NC you're in. Clemson for example is probably the dominant brand in Charlotte by a hair.
Taking the whole block in the triangle solves the vast majority of that market share problem.

I say all of that as an ECU fan w/ zero delusions about our place nationally. I'm honestly ready for all of this to be over with. Hopefully we end up in some form of a best of the leftovers and play COLLEGE football.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 09:46 AM by b2b.)
08-03-2022 09:42 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 06:46 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:30 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  

Honestly... I mean what is that a 26 vs 30 split with maybe KU ND and a couple more going to the B1G? That's probably the most sensible solution to foster a full breakaway.

I know the Big 12 guys don't want to hear it. I mean, maybe additional Big 12 schools can be sent here or there like ISU to B1G and OSU to SEC, but that would be a mass consolidation that would save the networks a lot of money if we had unequal revenue distribution based on performance instead of history.

Just goes to show, any time you have mass consolidation like this, it means that the money is tightening and financial gains are waning. There are not gobbles of cash sitting around to chase college football. Otherwise we'd see expanded viewerships and additional G5 schools breaking into the power ranks organically. That could still be the trajectory, but we are far flung from that at the moment.
I don't think the BIG or SEC have either of those schools on their radar.
08-03-2022 09:44 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 06:46 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:30 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Seems the easiest thing to do and reduce corporate paperwork and expenses, would be for the SEC and ACC to merge and create a 30 school super conference along with ESPN in charge of the broadcasting rights. Since so many of the schools are already playing schools in both conferences it would be far more profitable to have one conference retain what is the largest viewership in the country.
The B1G could do the same with PAC and Big XII schools but they more than likely would need to reduce the AAU status as a requirement for admission, yet still having the best programs available. After all, They likely are forming a 2 Super Conference breakaway from the NCAA in all sports. Keeps 60 schools, states,FOX and ESPN happy . But it likely won't become a reality even though corporate mergers are common place these days



Just goes to show, any time you have mass consolidation like this, it means that the money is tightening and financial gains are waning. There are not gobbles of cash sitting around to chase college football. Otherwise we'd see expanded viewerships and additional G5 schools breaking into the power ranks organically. That could still be the trajectory, but we are far flung from that at the moment.

I am not sure what you're trying to say there, but consolidation has made sense for a long time- and has been occurring for decades. Now barriers that once were prohibitive are able to be overcome due to the revenue disparity.

We're a more than a half century removed from the collegial ecosystem that generated the 8-10 school, regional, if not local, conference format of like schools (which was blind to program valuation, and no consideration of marco level benefits).

It is first and foremost about like programs now, not schools, with distance and tradition prohibitive moats in getting as much brand per dollar as possible in the conference. The P2s can afford to pay for some nostalgia for the old ways, but leftover realignment cannot.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 10:37 AM by Big 12 fan too.)
08-03-2022 10:35 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 09:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 09:20 AM)bluesox Wrote:  You go to 24 or 32 because limiting things screws over the whole concept of what makes college sports, ie rivals. Would the big 10 be better off dropping Michigan’s state and Purdue ?, things don’t work the way, you need passion and rivals.

And going to 24 kills rivalries in the Big 10.

It just depends on how it structured. 4 Divisions of 6 would actually save many. But that would take expanded the number of games, which I don't know why that's never mentioned. These aren't students anymore they are just athletes. Athletes don't need to go to school. The CFB season should mirror the length of Nfl season.
08-03-2022 10:50 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 09:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  It's more nuanced than this here as, once again, we have to look at data like viewership in terms of the broader context of the entire entertainment industry as opposed to a vacuum. We have to remember that EVERYTHING on TV is getting lower viewership with every passing year, but college football and sports in general are actually retaining a much higher level of those viewers than every single other type of program on TV. This means that on a *relative* basis compared to everything else on TV, college football is stronger than ever. Both the Big Ten and SEC have multiple games per year that draw more viewers than EVERY regularly scheduled prime time TV program on OTA network television COMBINED.

It's not that the money is consolidating within sports, but rather the TV networks are shifting much more of their spending from other types of TV shows TO sports. The proper comparison isn't whether more people are watching the Big Ten or SEC game of the week compared to a decade ago, but rather where does the Big Ten or SEC game of the week rank compared to every other program on TV compared to a decade ago. The latter figure has actually *skyrocketed*, which is why rights fees are exploding and streaming services like Amazon want to get in on the action. This is the single most important item that sports fans NEED to remember whenever they want to understand what's going on with media rights (and not just in college sports, but in pro sports like the NFL and NBA).

Money is also consolidating into a smaller number of brands in the entertainment industry. We see this pretty directly in the movie theaters: any movie with any sort of substantial budget is a franchise. Entertainment companies with scarce dollars don't want to take material bets on something new. That's right in line with what we're seeing in college sports and the focus on the top brands.

You have to measure things on an absolute basis. The History Channel sucks now because of creative choices. Reality TV... we know where that's gone over the last decade. Does that really relate to college football and its growth trajectory? No... of course I haven't done my own data analysis on the matter, but has the market share increased, decreased, or stayed about the same for CFB? Best case you can argue is the latter which is extremely debatable. Realistically, it's probably decreased in popularity when you factor overall streaming services and digital content from independent creators, etc.

We have decreased BIGLY in popularity from the inception of the CFP. Look at the ratings then when we seemingly had decent parity among the power conferences. The buzz that was generated. Did everything go to streaming? It did not...I get that it was novel and all, but we've fallen off precipitously since 15'. Look at Disney stock. A lot of that is a reflection of ESPN. People have chosen to stream (or do) other things. And I'd argue streaming is still one of the most cheapest discretionary things there is to do, even when you factor in phone and internet costs. CFB has declined in popularity in the last ten years on any absolute metric.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 11:56 AM by RUScarlets.)
08-03-2022 11:53 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 11:53 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 09:30 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  It's more nuanced than this here as, once again, we have to look at data like viewership in terms of the broader context of the entire entertainment industry as opposed to a vacuum. We have to remember that EVERYTHING on TV is getting lower viewership with every passing year, but college football and sports in general are actually retaining a much higher level of those viewers than every single other type of program on TV. This means that on a *relative* basis compared to everything else on TV, college football is stronger than ever. Both the Big Ten and SEC have multiple games per year that draw more viewers than EVERY regularly scheduled prime time TV program on OTA network television COMBINED.

It's not that the money is consolidating within sports, but rather the TV networks are shifting much more of their spending from other types of TV shows TO sports. The proper comparison isn't whether more people are watching the Big Ten or SEC game of the week compared to a decade ago, but rather where does the Big Ten or SEC game of the week rank compared to every other program on TV compared to a decade ago. The latter figure has actually *skyrocketed*, which is why rights fees are exploding and streaming services like Amazon want to get in on the action. This is the single most important item that sports fans NEED to remember whenever they want to understand what's going on with media rights (and not just in college sports, but in pro sports like the NFL and NBA).

Money is also consolidating into a smaller number of brands in the entertainment industry. We see this pretty directly in the movie theaters: any movie with any sort of substantial budget is a franchise. Entertainment companies with scarce dollars don't want to take material bets on something new. That's right in line with what we're seeing in college sports and the focus on the top brands.

You have to measure things on an absolute basis. The History Channel sucks now because of creative choices. Reality TV... we know where that's gone over the last decade. Does that really relate to college football and its growth trajectory? No... of course I haven't done my own data analysis on the matter, but has the market share increased, decreased, or stayed about the same for CFB? Best case you can argue is the latter which is extremely debatable. Realistically, it's probably decreased in popularity when you factor overall streaming services and digital content from independent creators, etc.

We have decreased BIGLY in popularity from the inception of the CFP. Look at the ratings then when we seemingly had decent parity among the power conferences. The buzz that was generated. Did everything go to streaming? It did not...I get that it was novel and all, but we've fallen off precipitously since 15'. Look at Disney stock. A lot of that is a reflection of ESPN. People have chosen to stream (or do) other things. And I'd argue streaming is still one of the most cheapest discretionary things there is to do, even when you factor in phone and internet costs. CFB has declined in popularity in the last ten years on any absolute metric.



Sports in general are declining in popularity.

CFB needs consolidation to get rid of the chaos and disparities.

College football parity has never been worse, and it’s not because of consolidation. Some of it is Saban, some recruiting. Consolidation may help alleviate as it allows the BIG to leverage its population/popularity to add recruiting grounds.

5 or 6 conferences of unequal revenue and demographics does not help anything. The 12 school SEC, formed in the early 90’s, would be dominating football regardless. The PAC continuing to wither to irrelevance, the sport losing the west coast. The 9 member ACC football school fading while being the second brand in its region. Miami and VT in big east too declining. The original Big 12 perhaps able to better live off Texas.

48 school P2 in which the BIG adds PAC and SEC adds ACC is the best possible outcome now imo. Making the sport more national while maintaining much regional structure.

The BIG getting all of CA, locking out the rest of the PAC, then adding UVa, UNC, Duke, FSU, Miami, maybe ND at that point would be better for parity though. The BIG be adding a ton of recruiting grounds and population to its kingdom. Maybe that would be enough to compete with SEC
08-03-2022 12:17 PM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-03-2022 09:44 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I don't think the BIG or SEC have either of those schools on their radar.

Of course not, but we were on the subject of OSU/WSU/ASU in the B1G if you read the entire thread.
08-03-2022 01:12 PM
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