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Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
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Post: #41
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.
the networks blew up the Pac 16 idea because they didn't want too much consolidation. I don't see why they would want to "clean things up" and get to only two major leagues. No reason the networks wouldn't be happy with 4 majors. And the Pac, Big 12 and ACC will still be major even if they aren't super-major.
08-02-2022 12:26 PM
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Post: #42
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
I think the biggest effect of the P2 will be for those schools to dominate non-revs the way the P5 has started dominating non-rev sports. Now, its only a few niche programs in sports like baseball and hockey where non P5s are nationally competitive. And that will become more difficult as well.
08-02-2022 12:28 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 12:36 PM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 12:29 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 09:43 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  ND is not going to B1G. They are staying Independent. NBC will pay them.

I don't think so. NBC wants a bigger package than the maybe 3 or 4 interesting Notre Dame games a year they get. $75M is a lot to pay for that. This is why NBC is seeking to replace the Notre Dame package with a B1G game of the week type package, possibly with a CCG semifinal game thrown in. This is a lot more reliable chance to get 12 meaningful high watch games a year in. Such a package could also include some Peacock inventory of Big Ten games, a plus. Also with USC they will already control the every other year ND game in the Coliseum. Ina ll NBC will probably pay $250-300M for such a package. That blows the budget and blows away the need for Notre Dame.

NBC is not going to pay Notre Dame just for being Notre Dame. Right now Notre Dame's other sports are in the ACC and controlled by ESPN providing zero Peacock value. For $75M NBC needs a lot more than 3 or maybe 4 decent football games. And not being in the P2 diminishes the value of what games Notre Dame has.
08-02-2022 12:39 PM
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Post: #45
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:39 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 09:43 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  ND is not going to B1G. They are staying Independent. NBC will pay them.

I don't think so. NBC wants a bigger package than the maybe 3 or 4 interesting Notre Dame games a year they get. $75M is a lot to pay for that. This is why NBC is seeking to replace the Notre Dame package with a B1G game of the week type package, possibly with a CCG semifinal game thrown in. This is a lot more reliable chance to get 12 meaningful high watch games a year in. Such a package could also include some Peacock inventory of Big Ten games, a plus. Also with USC they will already control the every other year ND game in the Coliseum. Ina ll NBC will probably pay $250-300M for such a package. That blows the budget and blows away the need for Notre Dame.

NBC is not going to pay Notre Dame just for being Notre Dame. Right now Notre Dame's other sports are in the ACC and controlled by ESPN providing zero Peacock value. For $75M NBC needs a lot more than 3 or maybe 4 decent football games. And not being in the P2 diminishes the value of what games Notre Dame has.

Seriously Stu, what else can NBC afford, or CBS for that matter? In today's market, ND at 75 million is a bargain and ESPN can lease them inventory with which to supplement if it keeps N.D. away from FOX.
08-02-2022 12:43 PM
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Post: #46
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?
08-02-2022 12:45 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:31 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:32 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:57 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  I believe ND has already declined the B1G to retain Their independence while still making a very large contract with NBC.
The reported PAC 4-6 year media rights likely will be the reason that these 4 are going to be on their way East with USC, UCLA sooner then later if it holds true

I agree: Maintaining its current status is still Notre Dame's first choice. For the B1G the most immediate decision this affects is how many schools to invite in the next wave. The terms of both ND and B1G media contracts have to enable these choices, of course. That sets the timetable.

ND's preference for staying around is the biggest bargaining chip the ACC has right now with its media partner. Whatever becomes of that, the revenue gap has opened too wide to prevent the eventual departure of 4-8 ACC member schools.

Growing with 4 more PAC schools makes the math a little easier to go to 24 as well. There are 5 ACC AAU schools: UVA/UNC/Duke/GT/Pitt. When the Big 10 goes to 24 it can simply take UVA/UNC/Duke and ND and be done [not sure GT/Pitt move the needle as much, no offense to either school.]

That also means that the SEC would wind up with NC State as the consolation (I think they may prefer VT over UVA anyway). NC State/VT/FSU/Clemson.

If the Big 10 takes those four PAC schools the corner 4 (ASU/AU/CU/UU) jump to the Big 12 and the Big 12 sits at 16. They could then take Pitt/GT/Miami/Louisville.

Schools left out: Washington St/Oregon St from the PAC, Wake Forest/Syracuse/Boston College from the ACC. The ACC could rebuild with UConn/UMass/Temple/etc. and still have a solid academic league.

You consistently underestimate your own conference. Just because there are only 5 AAU schools left in the ACC doesn't mean they automatically will go to the Big 10, or that the SEC will simply settle for N.C. State. It would be more likely since the SEC had 8 slots left to 24 (if that even matters) that we would offer Duke, UNC, and N.C. State to stop the B1G in Virginia. We would still have enough slots left to take Clemson, FSU, Miami and Georgia Tech with one left for a Virginia school, Louisville or Kansas, or even N.D. since the as of now seem to prefer independence, you know another deal could be worked out by ESPN, who by the way holds rights to all of these schools until 2036 and can facilitate whatever it might wish to do to retain those rights where they also currently hold 100% of the rights (SEC).

Perhaps the B1G does get 3 AAU's and ND. (Kansas, Missouri, Pitt & the Irish). Now the SEC has room for both Virginia's and a solid Souteast to Southwest where if we ever decided the end game was 28 you could add Baylor, T.C.U., Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and play monopoly with Florid and Texas recruiting.07-coffee3

I hope I am underestimating my conference! If we take all three North Carolina schools, its a "win" versus the Big 10 but 3 schools in one state is a lot (even if it is Florida/FSU/Miami or Texas/A&M/Tech, etc.)

Historically speaking, Virginia/VT/Clemson/UNC/NCState/Duke would reunited us with the old Southern Conference teammates minus Sewanee/Tulane/VMI/Washington and Lee. What is old is new again.
08-02-2022 01:02 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 01:11 PM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 01:06 PM
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Post: #49
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

But why 2 instead of 4?
08-02-2022 01:12 PM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

But why 2 instead of 4?
Forget conference names, 2 Networks, 2 sets of properties. Having 2 large ones which pay equally would be essential to creating a competitive League, streamlining officiating, eliminating duplicated overhead and selling product as a block, which raises value and makes control of the product and scheduling easier.
08-02-2022 01:17 PM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
Honestly I'd be surprised if Cal is coming along. They have a smallish following, and TV numbers suggest smaller than Stanford. (I understand the demographics behind this phenomena; it makes sense if you actually dig into it.) Also the Bay Area can be covered sparsely, doesn't need dense two teams overlay like Los Angeles. Note, I'm sure if the Big Ten and SEC were starting over there would be only one school in Alabama, Mississippi, Michigan and Indiana; none of them need overlapping coverage.

My sense is the Big Ten is waiting on Notre Dame. If this were TV coverage only, Arizona State would be my backup for Notre Dame. Arizona would work too. Sparse coverage could give you Phoenix along with San Francisco, Portland and Seattle should Notre Dame stay on the sideline. Of course the downside is Phoenix doesn't bring the media and sponsors the others do (Apple, Meta, Google, Netflix are all SF Bay Area, Nike is Portland and Amazon in Seattle ... there are many other sponsorship players not mentioned, I just stuck to media/streaming plus the king of sports sponsorship in Nike). Southwest is nice, but yeah.

Anyway if Notre Dame rides it out, Cal could win the lottery. Remember being evaluated is not the same as being invited. A lot more schools are evaluated than accepted. A lot of things need to happen to get anywhere.

Something to keep in mind, the Pac-12 are all available in 2024, with no exit fee. Notre Dame might be subject to the $96M exit fee of the ACC, even if the GoR on basketball is only $70-90M for them (10 years at say $7-9M in today's money if they join the B1G in '26, or pay a tax of $10M or so a year for 10 years to the ACC to leave). And keep in mind every Pac-12 school would happily take a haircut on B1G revenue this cycle to join.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2016/...-fees.html

Note: Texas and Oklahoma by staying until 2024 lower their exit fee to only one year of distributions (mostly media, plus some basketball credits and a few really small other earnings, the rest cannot be withheld as the conference is a direct pass through of NCAA funds for school specific targets like APR), which is probably in the low $30M range. However there is no reason for the Big 12 to release the GoR, so all 2024-25 SEC media revenue for those two schools would instead go to the Big 12 conference. I can only see a settlement reached if both Fox and ESPN tell the Big 12 they won't cut revenue for '24-25 if those two leave. Otherwise it's either a zero sum at best for the Big 12 just recouping the revenue drop, or if they demand a high number then a revenue negative for Texas and Oklahoma. A media provider will only eat a year if they are part of new extension (long one too), and I'm not sure Fox is interested. Seems an impasse to me.
08-02-2022 01:27 PM
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Post: #52
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:27 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Honestly I'd be surprised if Cal is coming along. They have a smallish following, and TV numbers suggest smaller than Stanford. (I understand the demographics behind this phenomena; it makes sense if you actually dig into it.) Also the Bay Area can be covered sparsely, doesn't need dense two teams overlay like Los Angeles. Note, I'm sure if the Big Ten and SEC were starting over there would be only one school in Alabama, Mississippi, Michigan and Indiana; none of them need overlapping coverage.

My sense is the Big Ten is waiting on Notre Dame. If this were TV coverage only, Arizona State would be my backup for Notre Dame. Arizona would work too. Sparse coverage could give you Phoenix along with San Francisco, Portland and Seattle should Notre Dame stay on the sideline. Of course the downside is Phoenix doesn't bring the media and sponsors the others do (Apple, Meta, Google, Netflix are all SF Bay Area, Nike is Portland and Amazon in Seattle ... there are many other sponsorship players not mentioned, I just stuck to media/streaming plus the king of sports sponsorship in Nike). Southwest is nice, but yeah.

Anyway if Notre Dame rides it out, Cal could win the lottery. Remember being evaluated is not the same as being invited. A lot more schools are evaluated than accepted. A lot of things need to happen to get anywhere.

Something to keep in mind, the Pac-12 are all available in 2024, with no exit fee. Notre Dame might be subject to the $96M exit fee of the ACC, even if the GoR on basketball is only $70-90M for them (10 years at say $7-9M in today's money if they join the B1G in '26, or pay a tax of $10M or so a year for 10 years to the ACC to leave). And keep in mind every Pac-12 school would happily take a haircut on B1G revenue this cycle to join.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2016/...-fees.html

Note: Texas and Oklahoma by staying until 2024 lower their exit fee to only one year of distributions (mostly media, plus some basketball credits and a few really small other earnings, the rest cannot be withheld as the conference is a direct pass through of NCAA funds for school specific targets like APR), which is probably in the low $30M range. However there is no reason for the Big 12 to release the GoR, so all 2024-25 SEC media revenue for those two schools would instead go to the Big 12 conference. I can only see a settlement reached if both Fox and ESPN tell the Big 12 they won't cut revenue for '24-25 if those two leave. Otherwise it's either a zero sum at best for the Big 12 just recouping the revenue drop, or if they demand a high number then a revenue negative for Texas and Oklahoma. A media provider will only eat a year if they are part of new extension (long one too), and I'm not sure Fox is interested. Seems an impasse to me.
I've seen more SJSU fans between here and my travels to the bay and central coast than Cal fans. More Boise fans here than Cal too. I know that doesn't matter but w/ us being here we know how small these fan bases are.
08-02-2022 01:34 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
Big 10 is all about markets. That’s why they did the LA move. They don’t want Kansas or Duke guys. It’s 100% about Football. If you have a crap football team you better deliver a dynamic large market (See Rutgers & Maryland) The BIG10 also doesn’t care about a future big market either. They will wait till the market grows to grab you. The only exception to this rule is ND. They are a monster brand.

Don’t be so quick to think teams like Oregon are wanted but teams like Colorado and Boston College are not. Denver > Portland Boston > Portland
08-02-2022 01:38 PM
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Post: #54
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado.

I don't think it likely. I was contextualizing why at the moment one simply can't assume it will only be a P2x24 which is not happening without a third full conference to handle the transitioning as it would need to grant access and pay sufficiently to cover by a smidgen the value of those left in order to mitigate damages.

Anyone we would take to 20 from the West would have to be subsidized by ESPN and would be their move to protect or acqui8re a market.

Like I said we were complete at 16. As to the ACC I could see adding the research triangle and FSU and stopping at 20. A Virginia school would be nice, but not essential. With North Carolina shut, Georgia Tech likely wouldn't be worth it to the B1G. Clemson doesn't fit the B1G profiles. But if you did have to move to 24 you have Clemson, Miami, G.T., and a Virginia school you could pick up.

It's not about an individual school's additive value. It's about inventory enhancement, CFP entrants and Tourney money.

Now about our SEC:
#1 in actual viewers
#1 in % of actual viewers to potential viewers.
#1 in Attendance
#1 in Total Revenue
#1 in Econonmic Impact Valuations by the WSJ and by 3.5 billion after USC and UCLA's addition to the Big 10.

Yes, the B1G has great academics, but AAU schools freely associate extraneous sports, and their fan bases love key sports not well supported in the B1G, and their donors and fans are their consumers. And as population shifts south and we add schools like Texas & Texas A&M to Florida and as UGa is set to emerge and perhaps Tennessee as well, we become all the more attractive as a package to neighboring schools. So never assume because a school is AAU they will bow down to the Big Ten. I can see UVa heading there because it is more similar now to beltway culture.

Sankey will not let inventory volume or quality tilt in favor of the Big Ten though we have some cushion.

Thanks for the clarification. And I like that strategy of the Research triangle plus FSU, then Miami/Clemson/VT. My only question would be team 24 in that scenario.

Take UVA if available?
Kansas?

I'm lower than some on GT/Louisville but I understand the rationales.
08-02-2022 02:04 PM
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Post: #55
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:26 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.
the networks blew up the Pac 16 idea because they didn't want too much consolidation. I don't see why they would want to "clean things up" and get to only two major leagues. No reason the networks wouldn't be happy with 4 majors. And the Pac, Big 12 and ACC will still be major even if they aren't super-major.

Different times.

I didn’t claim the networks have a goal of cleaning things up, but rather their pursuit of macros will.

Right now we’re awkwardly in between. Further consolidation will be better imo
08-02-2022 02:05 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 12:45 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

JR,

The SEC to 20 with non-ACC schools? I've only heard that on some of the more extreme rumor mongers.

I doubt Washington/Oregon to the SEC is really a good play.

OK State and Kansas, maybe. But that's only 18. Iowa State has a great fan base and fits the culture and is AAU. Texas Tech maybe.

Or G5 and take USF/SMU?

ISU recently announced it is withdrawing from the AAU.
08-02-2022 02:20 PM
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Post: #57
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 07:39 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  https://reignoftroy.com/posts/usc-trojan...washington
This was dated 07/31/2022 wonder if the B1G will actually pull the trigger on it. 20 and done.

Was this the report where Warren said they were looking at these schools and had five criteria for expansion? If So, as a UW fan, I'm hopeful that Washington ticks off enough of Warren's criteria (and I think we do)
08-02-2022 03:23 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

ASU is not going to the B1G. Look at the criteria that Warren laid out. They are not even a AAU school. That will matter.
08-02-2022 03:30 PM
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Post: #59
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 03:30 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

ASU is not going to the B1G. Look at the criteria that Warren laid out. They are not even a AAU school. That will matter.

I agree, the B1G may be more flexible with AAU than they have been in the past but it isn't going to help ASU. They aren't going to take a non-AAU school when they can get the same state/market with the flagship and AAU member Arizona. If they want the Grand Canyon state, it's the Wildcats who are going to be cashing B1G checks.
08-02-2022 03:34 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 01:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 12:07 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.

The SEC's offensive plan was West. Its defensive plan was East. The only other offensive objective which is yet unmet is a second Florida school.

If I were you I wouldn't double down on a P2 x 24. It could easily, and for transition purposes, morph into a 2 x 28. Or it could stop short for profit at 20 and a third conference emerge. A lot will depend upon whether the Big 10 stops with 6 to the West. If they do you might see the ACC pick up 6, keep ND as a partial, and stop this at 61.

There is a lot more to unfold. I can see the SEC at 20 without ACC schools. It would tidy up the West. It's a big we'll see.

Remember every non ACC school added to the SEC becomes 100% rights property of ESPN. Ditto for non SEC schools added to the ACC. A 20 member SEC and ACC gives ESPN the hammer in future votes in a breakaway.

And Bullet the P2 is a thing in a breakaway because it stands to earn FOX and ESPN a billion each after CFP and Tourney payouts. I call that a motive!

But why 2 instead of 4?

Because there are two players reorganizing the sport.

But 2 is better than 4 for product identification. We love to hate the "other side". We're already starting to see people take sides. FOX vs ESPN, BIG vs SEC, hopefully north-south.

2 is a rivalry. 4 is a complicated collation.
08-02-2022 03:37 PM
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