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Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
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Gamenole Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 08:54 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I don't think just paying FSU and Miami at P2 level in ACC is enough. Those schools need to cash in on the current "yes" status and FOX vs ESPN corporate climate, and remove the risk they are later not able to get that invite. Miami in particular would be unwise to pass on a BIG invite for ESPN overpaying to keep ACC together for 14 years

I totally agree, SEC/B1G money is only part of the issue when we'd still be in the ACC playing an ACC schedule. And unequal revenue sharing can be given now and taken away later. If it happens great, more money while we're trapped in the ACC is a good thing. But I think decisionmakers in Tallahassee and Miami are very foolish if they let the lure of more money keep us in the ACC any longer than necessary. It's another excuse, like the old "the ACC is an easier path to the national championship..." argument and look where that has gotten us.
08-02-2022 09:43 AM
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GreenFreakUAB Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 09:24 AM)AntiG Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Nobody wants Duke or Wake Forest.

Big 10 wants Virginia, UNC and Georgia Tech/Florida State.

Of course Duke is a viable candidate. Its one of the best all-around athletic programs in college sports, the #1 basketball franchise, sits in Raleigh-Durham research triangle, and has better academics than nearly all of the Ivy League. The B1G already reached out to them in the past before the GOR was signed.

...I think they could well be a 'tag along' with UNC... but if somehow Duke DOESN'T make it to a B1G, SEC, etc., and the ACC ultimately implodes, they might just pull a UCONN and go indy in football, and join the Big East in basketball... they aren't a Catholic institution, but I feel sure the BE would make a place for one of the most successful bball programs of the last 30 years... but not sure if the $$$ would be to Duke's liking compared to current conditions...
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 09:44 AM by GreenFreakUAB.)
08-02-2022 09:44 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #23
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 09:35 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:39 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  https://reignoftroy.com/posts/usc-trojan...washington
This was dated 07/31/2022 wonder if the B1G will actually pull the trigger on it. 20 and done.

Yes, this article is dated 7/31 but all I see is an opinion piece that appears to be based on Denis Dodds’ report from 7/27 (can’t tell for sure since the author’s link to his source doesn’t work, but he references Dodds by name and I don’t think Dodds has published anything more on the topic since then).

If there’s any news here it’s that at least some USC fans would be relieved if four more of their traditional Pac-12 rivals were accompanying them to the B1G.

And the writer cites Heisman trophies as one of the most important criteria in realignment. The writer is just an amateur - he's not reporting anything new.
08-02-2022 09:45 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 09:41 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 09:36 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  could just combine that for 6 - if they're good, then they're good. Why should the B10 mess around?

Sorry I messed up the addition, ND would be 21 at that point. I don't think they'd go 21 teams. ND would have to go in the west in that case, with 7/7/7.

The only way the PAC4 is added is if ND completely scoffs. If ND is in, I think they may decide 18 is the number with an additional PAC rival (Stanford in all likelihood). That way they can milk Fox with an 18 team pie.

But there is a good chance all 4 are added once ND walks, because the whole is greater than the sum sort of thing.

I really think the next steps come down to two schools: ND and florida state.

ND's easy - if it's a yes, it's likely to the B10, and probably with one of it's rivals. Everyone seems to think Stanford.

We're hearing rumors about both B10 and SEC being in talks with Florida state. And I think it's a game-changer for both conferences.

It's not only a ND rival, but it gives a foothold into florida.

I wrote this in a different thread, in which the goal was adding only 4 schools and not ND (yet):

https://csnbbs.com/thread-951920-post-18...id18354349

Quote:-------
Ok, so for the SEC:

Clemson is an obvious choice, and one that the Big10 is less likely to invite (AAU).

As for the Florida state situation, if yes, then also take 2 of Miami, Georgia tech, Kansas, or Louisville.

If no, let Big10 use up its choices east. This forces the Big10 to leave the PAC more intact. Go for which ever school Big10 doesn't take (Miami or Georgia tech), plus Kansas and Louisville.

-------
And now from the Big10's point of view.

Maybe no Notre dame now, but every decision should have them somewhere in the back of the mind.

So first, Stanford - ND rivalry, brings in bay area, strong academically, etc.

And if yes for Florida state, try for both Georgia tech and Miami. (all 3 have some form of long term ND rivalry)

If you can't get both, then add Arizona state - Big10 alumni region, phoenix area, near-AAU status, etc.

If no for Florida state, the Big10 adds Arizona state and Kansas, plus 1 of: Missouri or Virginia or a PAC school. Or they go after the NC/VA cluster.

So let's imagine the 24, including ND. that's 7 other schools.

VA/NC/Duke
Stanford
Florida state
pick 2 of Miami, Georgia tech, Arizona state, Kansas, or maybe Colorado

if no florida state, pick 3 of the above
08-02-2022 10:03 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 10:20 AM by RUScarlets.)
08-02-2022 10:18 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 08:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 08:32 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:57 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  I believe ND has already declined the B1G to retain Their independence while still making a very large contract with NBC.
The reported PAC 4-6 year media rights likely will be the reason that these 4 are going to be on their way East with USC, UCLA sooner then later if it holds true

I agree: Maintaining its current status is still Notre Dame's first choice. For the B1G the most immediate decision this affects is how many schools to invite in the next wave. The terms of both ND and B1G media contracts have to enable these choices, of course. That sets the timetable.

ND's preference for staying around is the biggest bargaining chip the ACC has right now with its media partner. Whatever becomes of that, the revenue gap has opened too wide to prevent the eventual departure of 4-8 ACC member schools.

Growing with 4 more PAC schools makes the math a little easier to go to 24 as well. There are 5 ACC AAU schools: UVA/UNC/Duke/GT/Pitt. When the Big 10 goes to 24 it can simply take UVA/UNC/Duke and ND and be done [not sure GT/Pitt move the needle as much, no offense to either school.]

That also means that the SEC would wind up with NC State as the consolation (I think they may prefer VT over UVA anyway). NC State/VT/FSU/Clemson.

If the Big 10 takes those four PAC schools the corner 4 (ASU/AU/CU/UU) jump to the Big 12 and the Big 12 sits at 16. They could then take Pitt/GT/Miami/Louisville.

Schools left out: Washington St/Oregon St from the PAC, Wake Forest/Syracuse/Boston College from the ACC. The ACC could rebuild with UConn/UMass/Temple/etc. and still have a solid academic league.

You consistently underestimate your own conference. Just because there are only 5 AAU schools left in the ACC doesn't mean they automatically will go to the Big 10, or that the SEC will simply settle for N.C. State. It would be more likely since the SEC had 8 slots left to 24 (if that even matters) that we would offer Duke, UNC, and N.C. State to stop the B1G in Virginia. We would still have enough slots left to take Clemson, FSU, Miami and Georgia Tech with one left for a Virginia school, Louisville or Kansas, or even N.D. since the as of now seem to prefer independence, you know another deal could be worked out by ESPN, who by the way holds rights to all of these schools until 2036 and can facilitate whatever it might wish to do to retain those rights where they also currently hold 100% of the rights (SEC).

Perhaps the B1G does get 3 AAU's and ND. (Kansas, Missouri, Pitt & the Irish). Now the SEC has room for both Virginia's and a solid Souteast to Southwest where if we ever decided the end game was 28 you could add Baylor, T.C.U., Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and play monopoly with Florid and Texas recruiting.07-coffee3
08-02-2022 10:31 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.
08-02-2022 10:35 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.
08-02-2022 10:44 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

What two non-ACC would you pick? OR and WA - adding another island in the northwest? cal to reinforce the bay area coverage?

AZ state has, from what I understand, a decent alumni presence, is nearly AAU, has the phoenix metro region, high academics, etc.

Kansas - former Big8 members rival, AAU, basketball blueblood, etc.
08-02-2022 10:50 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.
08-02-2022 10:51 AM
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
I know I may be in the minority here, but if the Big is at $100M per school I don't quite get the gutting of college football continuing down the expansion path. What purpose does it serve? Eventually you'll reach economies of scale.

There will be a lot of fan apathy in this arrangement down the road causing interest to decline. Geographic rivalry is important especially in college sports. With consolidation of resources opportunity will suffer. The consumer will have the final word!
08-02-2022 10:57 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:57 AM)Pirate Rep Wrote:  I know I may be in the minority here, but if the Big is at $100M per school I don't quite get the gutting of college football continuing down the expansion path. What purpose does it serve? Eventually you'll reach economies of scale.

There will be a lot of fan apathy in this arrangement down the road causing interest to decline. Geographic rivalry is important especially in college sports. With consolidation of resources opportunity will suffer. The consumer will have the final word!

It's not about the SEC and B1G's desires anymore. This is an acquisitions war between FOX and ESPN raiding conferences to take majority of value with a minority of schools. ESPN used the SEC to take 54.6% of the B12's value with just 2 schools. FOX is taking 55.4% of the PAC's value with 6 of the 12 but securing the top academic schools to head Big Ten. The SEC could take 61% of the ACC's value with just 6 schools, and those 6 don't include UNC, Duke, and Virginia, but the SEC won't just ignore the ACC academic stalwarts either and Texas, A&M, Florida, Vandy and Mizzou have an interest, as does UGa, and others.

But you get the picture. This is "Corporate Raiding 101" take the majority of value for half or less of the cost. This isn't SEC and Big 10 president's thinking, this is FOX and ESPN boardroom thinking plain and simple.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 11:11 AM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 11:09 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.
08-02-2022 11:20 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
Big Ten has to add at least 3 others in the West in order to keep USC and UCLA happy long term. And, I think that was and still is the plan.

Taking USC+UCLA first gives the Big Ten the opportunity to take a real shot to add Notre Dame...and flexibility if Notre Dame applies. It also allows the Big Ten to bring on USC and UCLA as full members right away but then to treat Stanford, Oregon, and Washington or whoever with more restraint, requiring graduated payments or buy in over the next TV deal.
08-02-2022 11:20 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other. The majority of our AD's are saying 20 plus.

When Oklahoma and Texas joined the SEC, it gave the conference a 4-billion-dollar valuation over the Big Ten. UCLA and USC cut that difference only 500 million. They'll be taking more. ND could cut it 1 billion if they opted B10, or they could increase it to 4.5 billion if the joined the SEC. Neutral is what the Big 10 has to hope is worst case scenario. If ND doesn't join the B1G this jumps to 24 each pretty quickly. If ND does go 20 could cap it, but at a deficit in value for the B1G. Texas and Oklahoma giving the SEC 54.6% of the Big 12's value (the third most valuable conference) was the ultimate move. Scale is the only thing which can reduce its impact.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 12:02 PM by JRsec.)
08-02-2022 11:28 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 07:57 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:51 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 07:39 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  https://reignoftroy.com/posts/usc-trojan...washington
This was dated 07/31/2022 wonder if the B1G will actually pull the trigger on it. 20 and done.

Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Washington to the B1G makes a lot of sense. We can expect the move sooner or later. What Notre Dame decides will affect the plan, of course.

If the B1G wants to move to 24, the next step is to add 3-4 Atlantic coast schools.

I believe ND has already declined the B1G to retain Their independence while still making a very large contract with NBC.
The reported PAC 4-6 year media rights likely will be the reason that these 4 are going to be on their way East with USC, UCLA sooner then later if it holds true

Yup, NBC giving them $150m for some reason.
08-02-2022 11:47 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
I don't think the B1G or SEC want to blow up college athletics. I do believe that they want to be the leaders of their fiefdom (the NCAA). If they breakaway, there is no one beneath them; no one to rule over. That being said, if ND is available, the B1G (and SEC) want them. If not, I expect both leagues to stay at 16 as I think they would like to remain the feel of a conference. 16 still allows you to do that. More than 16 is a conglomerate, a league. I don't think Sankey is altruistic be has mentioned wanting West Coast participation in the CFP.
08-02-2022 11:51 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 10:50 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  None of the ACC schools can go this round. The GoR will spend years in court if it is to be challenged. Then a buyout must be negotiated.

It's either ND/PAC1 or Pac2 or PAC4. Those are the only options at the moment. Would they take ND+PAC4??? No, I don't think they want three divisions like that. Season would be extended and there is no solid division for ND to end up in without creating major imbalances.

Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

What two non-ACC would you pick? OR and WA - adding another island in the northwest? cal to reinforce the bay area coverage?

AZ state has, from what I understand, a decent alumni presence, is nearly AAU, has the phoenix metro region, high academics, etc.

Kansas - former Big8 members rival, AAU, basketball blueblood, etc.

Arizona State definitely doesnt have top academics. Their inclusion would predicate on their market even if they don't "bring" it. The NHL and MLB have teams in Phoenix solely for market and TV purposes even though no one cares at all about the teams.
08-02-2022 11:54 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
(08-02-2022 11:28 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:44 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:35 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Then based upon your criteria (No ACC and only 4 adds), I could imagine:

ND
Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas

2 travel partners for socal and the other 2 within the current footprint of the conference.

LMFAO @ thinking Arizona St and Kansas are among the next 3 non-ND adds.

IMO, the article today had it right. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon give the B1G 55.4% of the PAC's total value and all of its top academic gems.

Six PAC schools in the Big 10 however reveals their intention to move to 24. Five would have meant 20, IMO. So ND and 3 more to the East or Plains.

Those four schools (+ USCLA) take them to 20. It could signal an intention to stop there. An independent Notre Dame doesn't hurt the Big Ten in any meaningful way, and I suspect they don't believe in their heart of hearts that the Irish would go to the SEC. Their stance on a future CFP, then, would be one that assures ND of an independent path to the championship. Any number of scenarios accomplish that.

Ken if this was being handled the old way, based solely upon an individual school's value, it would have capped out at 18, maybe 20. It's not. Network objectives are being met. Twenty-four, twenty-eight, or perhaps even thirty are possible. The SEC was complete at 16. Nobody here thinks we are done. This isn't conference driven. It is other.

I disagree somewhat. The conferences are largely complicit in this. The SEC has had war plans on neighboring conferences for decades. The networks going after macros is somewhat cleaning up the situation

Adding 6 PAC to Big 10 even though some are not revenue positive is better than 2 for the sport imo. The BIG disfiguring their long time partner by making usc and UCLA satellites is the most corporate M&A thing to do.

Going to 2x24 P2 setup allows for additions that can help retain more tradition and fit, which would otherwise be left to wither at this point if up to conferences.
08-02-2022 12:07 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Will the B1G actually pull this off ?
So If 6 Pac schools to B1G, to get to 10 with a west division I would assume Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconson would fill out that half to even it out with the east division .
That still is an impressive line up in anybody book
08-02-2022 12:24 PM
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