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Poll: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
They'll reload ("Pac-12") for 2024 & announce it this Fall..
They'll reload ("Pac-12") for 2024 & announce it within the next 12 months.
It will take them over a year to decide what to do.
They will expand & become the "PAC-14" or "PAC-16"
They won't reload or expand. They will simply become the "PAC-10"
Other (describe in comments)
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What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #1
What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
.

There's no guarantee that the PAC will add any schools to replace the departing USC and UCLA. They could go on as the PAC-10.

However, they have already "been there and done that." Going back to being the "PAC-10" would be a step backwards. Moreover, the chances are that the PAC remainers would lose a sizable chunk of income if they don't replace USC and UCLA with the best available schools.

So it seems most likely that they will either reload or expand. The question, in that case, would be: what is their timetable likely to be?

.
08-02-2022 06:06 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
No expansion until UCSD decides to field a football team.
08-02-2022 06:49 AM
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MattBrownEP Offline
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Post: #3
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
Likely several months...the Big Ten needs to announce their TV deal (which I'm told is "functionally" done), and the Pac-12 will need to exit their exclusive negotiating window and hit the full open market. Data from their formal conversations with Apple, NBC, CBS, etc will shape whether they go hard after San Diego State or others.
08-02-2022 07:02 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #4
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 07:02 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  Likely several months...the Big Ten needs to announce their TV deal (which I'm told is "functionally" done), and the Pac-12 will need to exit their exclusive negotiating window and hit the full open market. Data from their formal conversations with Apple, NBC, CBS, etc will shape whether they go hard after San Diego State or others.

The way you've phrased that makes me think you're well informed.

If the PAC were to stay put and revert to naming themselves the PAC-10, the MWC would have an outstanding opportunity to compete with and potentially surpass the "PAC-10" every year in FB and BB.

If they could do this, let's say finish 4-5 seasons in a row essentially tied with the "PAC-10" in the final rankings, they could start calling themselves a "P6" conference, with some justification, and negotiate for a lot more broadcasting revenue than they're getting now.

.
08-02-2022 09:35 AM
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PeteTheChop Offline
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Post: #5
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 09:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  If they could do this, let's say finish 4-5 seasons in a row essentially tied with the "PAC-10" in the final rankings, they could start calling themselves a "P6" conference, with some justification, and negotiate for a lot more broadcasting revenue than they're getting now.

If it were only that simple
08-02-2022 09:42 AM
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PicksUp Offline
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Post: #6
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
No need for expansion.
08-02-2022 09:44 AM
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ArmoredUpKnight Offline
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Post: #7
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
They can survive 10 years as the PAC10 for next round of expansion.

Short-term GOR and maybe ESPN gives them a short-term $35-40M per team, equal distribution.

[Image: Pac-10.png]
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 10:02 AM by ArmoredUpKnight.)
08-02-2022 09:58 AM
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jimrtex Offline
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Post: #8
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 09:58 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  They can survive 10 years as the PAC10 for next round of expansion.

Short-term GOR and maybe ESPN gives them a short-term $35-40M per team, equal distribution.

[Image: Pac-10.png]
Add the other DI UC campuses (Davis, Santa Barbara, Riverside, Irvine, San Diego)

UCLA and USC rejoin except for football.
08-02-2022 10:17 AM
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PlayBall! Offline
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Post: #9
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
Like the Big XII did after losing teams but keeping their TV contract, they will decide, at UW and UO's wrangling, to not add teams. And to keep the exit path relatively easy and as short as possible.

However, SDSU does help in a number of ways, just not dollars, unfortunately. A second add is also not obvious (although I'd like to see Hawaii or UNLV).

The-then Big 10 did play with 11 teams (w/PSU) for many years, so adding just one (SDSU) is a possibility.
08-02-2022 10:22 AM
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AztecEmpire Offline
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Post: #10
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
Once UW/UO get over being left behind by the LA schools they'll realize they're the kings of what could potentially become a 16-20 team western mega conf. It won't be the BIG/SEC but it could still be a great conf. I think KU/OSU/TTU/TCU/HOU/CSU join the PAC in a few years and the new contract $$ eases the two years of tv money the B12 schools would need to pay to exit (which would likely be negotiated down to 60-70% to speed up the process). B12 remnants gobble up the best of the MW/AAC and become the BOR of mostly top G5s and some left behind P5s.

UW/WAZZU/UO/OSU

Cal/Stan/ASU/UA

UU/CU/CSU/KU

OSU/TTU/TCU/HOU
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 11:59 AM by AztecEmpire.)
08-02-2022 10:28 AM
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Aztecgolfer Offline
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Post: #11
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 06:49 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  No expansion until UCSD decides to field a football team.

Any college thinking about adding a football program should have its head examined. When all is said and done, I don't see more than 40 programs breaking off and forming their own league. The rest of us are hoping for table scraps.
08-02-2022 10:33 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #12
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 09:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 09:35 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  If they could do this, let's say finish 4-5 seasons in a row essentially tied with the "PAC-10" in the final rankings, they could start calling themselves a "P6" conference, with some justification, and negotiate for a lot more broadcasting revenue than they're getting now.

If it were only that simple

It would largely hinge on viewership. If it were to become clear that the MWC is the full equal of the PAC-10, with the same number of quality FB and BB teams, the MWC's viewership might start to catch up with the PAC-10's.

Let's say that the MWC's current viewership is only 1/4 the size of the PAC's viewership. If it becomes clear that MWC sports are just as strong as PAC sports, the MWC's current viewership might grow until it is 1/2 the size of the PAC's viewership in 5-10 years.^

I would argue that if their viewership increases by 100% and is half the PAC's viewership, they should negotiate for something closer to half of what the PAC schools receive in broadcasting revenue.

^This may not be as far-fetched as it seems, with the PAC losing its grip on the Los Angeles metropolitan area, the largest in the PAC.

.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 10:38 AM by Milwaukee.)
08-02-2022 10:36 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #13
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
For the PAC 12 to stay ahead of the MWC? They need to add the strongest on the field teams like San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, SMU, UNR and UTSA to their mixed. The new schools could get like 10 to 15 million and the rest get more if it helps bring in more money with tv sets. UNLV is a long shot since they completely suck at every sport now.
08-02-2022 10:43 AM
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hk25 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
If they want to survive as a conference (even if a diminished one) they will expand sooner than later and start building up the value of their new members. If they want to slowly fade away into a slow death and slowly get picked apart but future raids they will stay at 10.

The B12 has shown, they will not fade away and have plans to continue on as a conference.

In 5+ years once the ACC will be faced with a similar decision once it’s brands are poached.

If I was the ACC & I wanted to ensure the conference could survive the inevitable loss of its top brands. I would expand to 20 right now with the top G5 schools as far west as Texas (no P5’s are moving) & (maybe give Navy a FB only with ND in other sports) & start building their value to your conference now. Between the new schools being offered reduced initial payouts, the increase in ACCN subscription fees, & ESPN paying for additions, this likely wouldn’t negatively impact any schools existing tv $ payouts. This would ensure they would always be at least equal to B12 & PAC & not risk raids from them in future, when the loss of the top brands make them vulnerable if their numbers get low…….sorry got off topic with ACC.

But similar hold true with PAC, you expand unless you are ok risking it going away…..
08-02-2022 10:58 AM
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PicksUp Offline
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Post: #15
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 10:58 AM)hk25 Wrote:  If they want to survive as a conference (even if a diminished one) they will expand sooner than later and start building up the value of their new members. If they want to slowly fade away into a slow death and slowly get picked apart but future raids they will stay at 10.

Adding more teams wont prevent future raids.

Staying at 10 and getting raided wont prevent adding more members at that time.
08-02-2022 11:05 AM
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Boots Offline
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Post: #16
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 11:05 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 10:58 AM)hk25 Wrote:  If they want to survive as a conference (even if a diminished one) they will expand sooner than later and start building up the value of their new members. If they want to slowly fade away into a slow death and slowly get picked apart but future raids they will stay at 10.

Adding more teams wont prevent future raids.

Staying at 10 and getting raided wont prevent adding more members at that time.

If they go to 14....the PAC conference will be in existence in 10 years. If they stay at 10....it very well may not.

So I disagree. If you are at 14-16 and lose 8 schools then you can rebuild from that with backfilling. If you are at 10 and lose 8 schools you are likely done as a conference.

So these schools need to pick their poison. Expand with quality G5s or Potentially no conference in 8-10 years.
08-02-2022 11:12 AM
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Comet Offline
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Post: #17
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
I can only see them expanding sooner rather than later if they do it pre-emptively to prevent Big12 encroachment into their region. Otherwise.... no rush.
08-02-2022 11:14 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #18
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
I dont think the Pac12 is intending to reload. I was under the impression they believe their best per team value comes from standing pat at 10.
08-02-2022 11:15 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 10:33 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 06:49 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  No expansion until UCSD decides to field a football team.

Any college thinking about adding a football program should have its head examined. When all is said and done, I don't see more than 40 programs breaking off and forming their own league. The rest of us are hoping for table scraps.

Yup. Almost like saying that the PAC will expand when pigs fly.
08-02-2022 11:55 AM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: What is the PAC's expansion (or reloading) timetable?
(08-02-2022 11:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I dont think the Pac12 is intending to reload. I was under the impression they believe their best per team value comes from standing pat at 10.

At the Pac-12 Media Day last Friday, the Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff said that they would not address expansion until the media contract was done, which could take several months. He did say that they have been exploring expansion options, but he would not give any specifics.
Kliavkoff: "We are actively exploring expansion opportunities. As we consider these opportunities, we will look at media value, athletic strength, academic and cultural fit, and geography from a recruiting and student-athlete experience standpoint."
08-02-2022 12:08 PM
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