So CBS dropped a few days ago that the B1G was "evaluating " Cal, Oregon, Stanford, & Washington. Now first off, I don't know what if anything "evaluating" means, but why aren't they also "evaluating" Arizona?

Based off of the article let's assume that 4 is the number of additional teams they are shooting for out West, the question is why do you need both Bay Area schools. Would 1 of them do the job, especially if paired against the LA schools, Oregon or Washington? My point is that if the B1G feels compelled to expand west, why not add Arizona and tap the rapidly growing Phoenix market and it's emerging talent pool from which schools may recruit.

Stanford has whispered of independence or perhaps dropping football altogether. Cal has the governor and the Board of Regents applying massive pressure to drag Berkeley along with UCLA. Stanford has by far the best run athletic department over the last 30+ years. Cal hasn't had much success in sports that make money nor sport that don't make money so we really don't know what Bay Area support looks like when Cal is good because they have had no consistent football or men's basketball success. Both are elite academic institutions with the only major difference being Stanford is private while Cal is public with a much larger student body. I don't know which would be the better add or more consistently maintain Bay Area interest in the long term and while my instinct tells me Stanford it's hard to not see that Cal has a more prototypical B1G profile. Perhaps Cal fans and massive alumni base would come out of the woodwork if Cal ever got good, we just don't know.

For argument sake let's say that the governor is successful in pressuring UCLA and they find a way to get Cal the nod. Let's also assume Washington and Oregon are a package deal that lock up the Northwest. I again ask why not add Arizona, the Phoenix market (3rd largest in the West), and one of the premier Basketball programs in the West instead of a second team in the Bay Area?

Given this scenario obviously the Pac 12 would be dead and in my opinion Stanford would look at independence instead of the Big 12. I would argue that USC, UCLA, Cal, and Notre Dame are still going to want to play Stanford annually maintaining the bulk of their valuable rivalries and establishing a baseline of content for a major network. Like Notre Dame they would also need a place to park their Olympic sports but with a name like Stanford, that wouldn't be hard. I would argue the same for Cal but it is harder to envision Cal going independent.

Back to Arizona, the main question is what would be the marginal gain for the B1G to double down in the Bay Area (2nd largest West coast market) vs adding the Bay (2nd) and Phoenix (3rd). All else being equal, wouldn't the benefit of BTN carriage fees in an additional market outweigh having another team in a market that's already at maximum fees due to 3/4 of the California schools being in the conference.

My last point is that importantly, Phoenix is still growing. There are a lot of B1G and Pac-12 alums in the Phoenix area. It's expensive but not nearly as expensive as the Bay Area which in my mind means more middle class families, more potential students, more potential athletes, and more revenue because of the additional market. In the final analysis I think Arizona is a better add than doubling down the Bay.

Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

(08-01-2022 11:04 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

It’s significantly easier for B1G schools to penetrate their alumni and prospective student/student-athlete recruits when the game’s right by them as opposed to having to drive 111 miles. If UA and ASU flipped locations, UA would be a candidate.

But UA isn’t a candidate. That should tell you B1G presidents have run the numbers and know that alumni penetration is much harder 111 miles away.

(08-01-2022 11:04 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

I don’t think you understand the dynamics of the market in PHX.

U of A owns the Tucson/Southern AZ market. People root for the Wildcats whether they went there or not.

U of A is a distant 2nd to ASU in the Phoenix market which is much, much larger. Generally U of A fans in PHX attended U of A (or had some other family connection). In PHX, ASU gets both alumni and T-shirt fans with no ties to the school.

Maybe it's because that part of the country doesn't care about college football like the rest of the nation and on top of that they play at a time of night where the people that do care about football are sleep or out enjoying their Saturday night. Why would the Big run itself into a dead-end timezone when they don't have to? All of these big12 people dying to wrap themselves up "p5" Pac teams are going run into a rude awakening in a few years. However the Big can make the mistake of adding Pac teams with indifferent fan bases which is what they did with Rutgers but the big12 can't afford that kind of error and they should continue to fill in the gaps between the core of the conference and WVA and UCF were college football is king.

I think the Big Ten cares about the Phoenix market, but it’s a matter of priorities. Remember that the San Francisco Bay Area has more people than the entire State of Arizona - people thinking of the Bay Area as a metro area that might make you think it’s a smaller population, but it’s really larger than most states in terms of population.

Stanford is not just a random school - it is THE elite of the elite of the elite in academia and its athletic department is spectacular from top to bottom. It absolutely drives me nuts when I see comments intimating that they’d drop football when, as I’ve stated elsewhere, they’ve been better in the field than either Texas or USC for the last decade, much less the much lesser branded “WE CARE ABOUT FOOTBAWL INSTEAD OF ACADEMICS!” schools.

(08-01-2022 11:29 PM)WAChsenburggemeinde Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 11:04 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

I don’t think you understand the dynamics of the market in PHX.

U of A owns the Tucson/Southern AZ market. People root for the Wildcats whether they went there or not.

U of A is a distant 2nd to ASU in the Phoenix market which is much, much larger. Generally U of A fans in PHX attended U of A (or had some other family connection). In PHX, ASU gets both alumni and T-shirt fans with no ties to the school.

Noted, I'm a Midwest guy looking at this gargantuan media market thinking to myself why are we shunning this market to double down on the Bay? Do we really need all 4 Cali schools. Are the tv ratings differentials between Zona and Cal so significant that Cal makes more sense than adding a non-redundant market and an elite Basketball program? You are right, i don't know the Phoenix market and 111 miles for a game does not make for great home games. This being the case i still say why double down on the Bay, go East and create a plan to go after multiple ACC schools when if they can figure out the grant of rights.

(08-02-2022 12:06 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 11:29 PM)WAChsenburggemeinde Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 11:04 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

I don’t think you understand the dynamics of the market in PHX.

U of A owns the Tucson/Southern AZ market. People root for the Wildcats whether they went there or not.

U of A is a distant 2nd to ASU in the Phoenix market which is much, much larger. Generally U of A fans in PHX attended U of A (or had some other family connection). In PHX, ASU gets both alumni and T-shirt fans with no ties to the school.

Noted, I'm a Midwest guy looking at this gargantuan media market thinking to myself why are we shunning this market to double down on the Bay? Do we really need all 4 Cali schools. Are the tv ratings differentials between Zona and Cal so significant that Cal makes more sense than adding a non-redundant market and an elite Basketball program? You are right, i don't know the Phoenix market and 111 miles for a game does not make for great home games. This being the case i still say why double down on the Bay, go East and create a plan to go after multiple ACC schools when if they can figure out the grant of rights.

The ability to effectively monopolize the entire State of California for power conference sports is the financial-based enticement for the Big Ten beyond academics (which are impeccable for Stanford and Cal). I think people aren’t quite understanding just how massive the LA and SF Bay Area markets are on their own. It’s why Texas and Texas A&M provide more value to the SEC than being split apart (albeit that it’s understood that those are much bigger football brands). To me, the California markets are way large enough that monopolizing the top teams in them make sense.

(08-02-2022 12:06 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 11:29 PM)WAChsenburggemeinde Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 11:04 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  

(08-01-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Because Tucson is 111 miles from Phoenix. Cal and Stanford are in the Bay Area. Washington is in Seattle. Oregon’s 100+ miles from Portland but they have a huge brand.

Arizona is not as big as ASU but it is still a massive school with tons of alumni and (mostly basketball) fans all around the state but especially in Tucson and Phoenix. I see no reason why they can't be successful and captivate the interest of Phoenix. Of course they need to win but I don't see why if Oregon could build their then Arizona with MUCH more in-state talent can't do the same, even without Phil Knight money.

I don’t think you understand the dynamics of the market in PHX.

U of A owns the Tucson/Southern AZ market. People root for the Wildcats whether they went there or not.

U of A is a distant 2nd to ASU in the Phoenix market which is much, much larger. Generally U of A fans in PHX attended U of A (or had some other family connection). In PHX, ASU gets both alumni and T-shirt fans with no ties to the school.

Noted, I'm a Midwest guy looking at this gargantuan media market thinking to myself why are we shunning this market to double down on the Bay? Do we really need all 4 Cali schools. Are the tv ratings differentials between Zona and Cal so significant that Cal makes more sense than adding a non-redundant market and an elite Basketball program? You are right, i don't know the Phoenix market and 111 miles for a game does not make for great home games. This being the case i still say why double down on the Bay, go East and create a plan to go after multiple ACC schools when if they can figure out the grant of rights.

I'm with you (and Frank, for that matter).

Take Stanford, to be sure, for all the reasons Frank said, plus adding another ND rival seems to be the plan these days.

Then I'd pair them with Arizona state (phoenix). Big10 alumni area and all the other reasons noted in this thread.

So you get the bay and phoenix, with the socal schools, and all 4 are south-west corner US, so not too hard on fans' travel either.

From here, you could double down on regions by taking Cal, and AZ, or go north and take WA and OR. (Or really split things and take cal and WA or AZ and OR. Though I think that unlikely)

I just think WA and OR are way north. not a "bad" choice, but definitely out of the way. I mean they're already going out of the footprint for socal - do they really want to expand to another out of footprint area?

Of course they could take Stanford and AZ state. and then go after something like Kansas. and for the last, flip a coin over whether it's Cal or Colorado. Or - hope beyond hope - ND : )

Restores rivalries all around.

All that said, I would be surprised if WA and OR don't find a way to convince the B10 to invite them. presuming the rumors are true, of course. I guess we'll see.

Washington and Oregon have had far more football success.
Stanford and Cal are in the Bay Area and rivals for USC and UCLA.

Its really pretty simple. ASU, AU, CU and UU are just too far down the list.

And from the fixed link on this board--19-20 revenues:
01.) University of Washington-Seattle - $137,573,939
02.) Stanford University - $133,622,625
03.) University of Southern California - $127,801,994
04.) University of California-Los Angeles - $119,391,431
05.) University of California-Berkeley - $105,044,581
06.) University of Oregon - $103,001,518
07.) Arizona State University-Tempe - $101,855,268
08.) University of Colorado Boulder - $95,592,693
09.) University of Arizona - $93,492,302
10.) University of Utah - $89,893,359
11.) Oregon State University - $77,034,669
12.) Washington State University - $69,307,483

(08-02-2022 12:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  And from the fixed link on this board--19-20 revenues:
01.) University of Washington-Seattle - $137,573,939
02.) Stanford University - $133,622,625
03.) University of Southern California - $127,801,994
04.) University of California-Los Angeles - $119,391,431
05.) University of California-Berkeley - $105,044,581
06.) University of Oregon - $103,001,518
07.) Arizona State University-Tempe - $101,855,268
08.) University of Colorado Boulder - $95,592,693
09.) University of Arizona - $93,492,302
10.) University of Utah - $89,893,359
11.) Oregon State University - $77,034,669
12.) Washington State University - $69,307,483

AZ state, Oregon, and cal - that's pretty close.

And is Washington's extra 35-ish million worth the travel costs for schools and fans?

As I said, I would be surprised if WA doesn't find a way to get an invite. But I just keep looking at the map and wondering if it's worth it.

Arizona's just too damn hot.

There are dynamics at play here besides "market size". Different markets care about college sports differently, and different markets have different levels of Big Ten fandom. My educated guess is that neither Arizona school, but especially not Arizona, has the ability to really MOVE a TV market that a) isn't a hardcore college sports market and b) is already full of Big Ten fans, thanks to midwestern immigration to Phoenix. In fact, I'm pretty sure BTN is already part of one of the basic cable packages for Cox, which if I remember correctly, is the largest basic cable provider in Phoenix.

FWIW, Stanford's ability to "deliver" the Bay Area market, I'm told, is wildly overstated, as is the college sports importance of that particular market. Houston and Atlanta, for example, are more valuable markets for college football rights providers than the Bay Area, despite the Bay Area having more actual TV sets, because there are more *college football fans* in Houston and ATL.

That's what I was wondering. I've been thinking one of the Arizona's is a lock w/ Oregon, Washington, whatever. Arizona St especially is well-respected here in Michigan, more so than Washington.

(08-01-2022 11:56 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  Maybe it's because that part of the country doesn't care about college football like the rest of the nation and on top of that they play at a time of night where the people that do care about football are sleep or out enjoying their Saturday night. Why would the Big run itself into a dead-end timezone when they don't have to? All of these big12 people dying to wrap themselves up "p5" Pac teams are going run into a rude awakening in a few years. However the Big can make the mistake of adding Pac teams with indifferent fan bases which is what they did with Rutgers but the big12 can't afford that kind of error and they should continue to fill in the gaps between the core of the conference and WVA and UCF were college football is king.

Not true. Boise State fans are passionate about the Broncos that they do travel.

(08-02-2022 07:00 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  There are dynamics at play here besides "market size". Different markets care about college sports differently, and different markets have different levels of Big Ten fandom. My educated guess is that neither Arizona school, but especially not Arizona, has the ability to really MOVE a TV market that a) isn't a hardcore college sports market and b) is already full of Big Ten fans, thanks to midwestern immigration to Phoenix. In fact, I'm pretty sure BTN is already part of one of the basic cable packages for Cox, which if I remember correctly, is the largest basic cable provider in Phoenix.

FWIW, Stanford's ability to "deliver" the Bay Area market, I'm told, is wildly overstated, as is the college sports importance of that particular market. Houston and Atlanta, for example, are more valuable markets for college football rights providers than the Bay Area, despite the Bay Area having more actual TV sets, because there are more *college football fans* in Houston and ATL.

Cox is the main provider in Phoenix, BTN is available on the Ultimate package.

Tuscon is tough to get to and the city is a dump. Campus is nice, but the city is a hole. But for hoops, the sports programs at UA are just okay. Media market is relatively small. Not sure why the Big 10 would want to go in that direction. You could get Kansas, which pretty much controls the Kansas City media market, and get a better bball program in your geographic territory.

ASU is top dog in Phoenix. GCU has a growing fanbase. Arizona support is certainly in the minority.

By going to the Big 10, Oregon and Washington are effectively killing the programs at OSU and WSU. There probably is no interest by the Big 12 in either OSU or WSU. The two would probably end up in the MWC. I wonder how the legislatures in these two states will act.

Conferences are selected by Presidents. If the Big 10 expands west, Stanford has to high on the list simply for that reason alone. Heck, if Harvard was interested, I am sure the Big 10 would be too.

To be honest, while UA, ASU, Utah and CU joining the Big 12 would be a pretty good fit, I can't see the politics at Cal, Stanford, UO, UW, OSU and WSU meshing very well with OSU, TTU, BYU, etc. So, it doesn't seem like a merger would be in the cards. Consequently, if UW and UO stay in the Pac 10/12, I would guess the conference with add a couple of MWC schools and continue till the next round of expansion by the 2 big boys.

(08-02-2022 03:08 PM)MU88 Wrote:  Tuscon is tough to get to and the city is a dump. Campus is nice, but the city is a hole. But for hoops, the sports programs at UA are just okay. Media market is relatively small. Not sure why the Big 10 would want to go in that direction. You could get Kansas, which pretty much controls the Kansas City media market, and get a better bball program in your geographic territory.

ASU is top dog in Phoenix. GCU has a growing fanbase. Arizona support is certainly in the minority.

By going to the Big 10, Oregon and Washington are effectively killing the programs at OSU and WSU. There probably is no interest by the Big 12 in either OSU or WSU. The two would probably end up in the MWC. I wonder how the legislatures in these two states will act.

Conferences are selected by Presidents. If the Big 10 expands west, Stanford has to high on the list simply for that reason alone. Heck, if Harvard was interested, I am sure the Big 10 would be too.

To be honest, while UA, ASU, Utah and CU joining the Big 12 would be a pretty good fit, I can't see the politics at Cal, Stanford, UO, UW, OSU and WSU meshing very well with OSU, TTU, BYU, etc. So, it doesn't seem like a merger would be in the cards. Consequently, if UW and UO stay in the Pac 10/12, I would guess the conference with add a couple of MWC schools and continue till the next round of expansion by the 2 big boys.

Agree with most, but Arizona's fan base in Phoenix is gigantic compared to GCU's, due to the number of alumni in Phoenix.

ASU dominates the college football market in Phoenix (or they would if they got their act together), but there are significant alumni groups from all over the country due to the number of people that have moved here from elsewhere.

You can find sports bars that cater to many different colleges here - Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, etc. Heck, even Montana has a bar that shows their games.