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ShowtimeBruin Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Fanbase study
(07-31-2022 09:22 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(07-31-2022 08:57 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-31-2022 08:13 AM)TerryD Wrote:  "New data from the marketing research firm SBRnet measured the number of fans for every Power Five team, plus Notre Dame.

The calculation was based on fans that watched or attended a game in 2021.

The data shows 103 million people were fans of the 65 teams in 2021.

Ohio State had the largest count at almost 6.3 million.

Alabama was second at over 4.1 million.

Thirty-one more Power Five programs (including Notre Dame) exceeded one million fans.

The list below is each program, by conference, with more than one million fans:



ACC – FSU, 2.7M; Duke, 2.6M; UNC, 1.9M; Boston College, 1.5M; Georgia Tech, 1.4M; Clemson, 1.5M; Georgia Tech, 1.4M; Miami 1.1M

Big 12 – Texas, 3.1M; Oklahoma, 1.7M; Kansas, 1M

Big Ten – Ohio State, 6.3M; Penn State, 4M; Michigan State, 2.9M; Michigan, 2.9M; Illinois, 1.7M; Wisconsin, 1.6M; Minnesota, 1.4M; Iowa, 1.3M; Nebraska, 1.2M

Pac 12 – UCLA, 2.7M; Arizona State, 1.5M; USC, 1.5M

SEC – Alabama, 4.1M; Georgia, 2.8M; LSU, 2.3M; Florida, 2.1M; Auburn, 2M; Texas A&M, 2M; Kentucky, 1.5M; Tennessee 1.3M; Missouri, 1.1M; Arkansas, 1.1M

Notre Dame – 3.5M"


https://bamahammer.com/2022/07/30/data-u...alignment/

Thanks for posting.

I do wonder though about a methodology that has Illinois with as many fans as Oklahoma. And Duke having almost a million more. Especially since, as I read it, the article seems to emphasize this data in relation to football realignment, so I am assuming this refers to football fans. Maybe I'm off on that.

And FSU has hundreds of thousands more fans than Florida, LSU, Auburn and Texas AM? Really?

IIRC, FSU attendance was pretty bad in 2021. They only drew 72,000 for their game with Miami, only 68,000 for Notre Dame. For a game with a ranked NC State team, only 50,000 showed up at Doak. The article says based on attendance and TV, but it beggars belief to me that, other than the ND game which opened the year, many eyeballs were watching these games.

And Boston College has as many fans as Clemson?

Weird numbers, IMO.

LOL - as an Illinois fan, I was thinking the same thing.

It kept referring to college football fandom, but the list only makes sense to me if it’s actually taking basketball into account, in which case, the high Duke number makes sense and Illinois is a large population state with a top level loyal basketball fan base despite its super fairweather football fandom. UCLA ranking so high and Michigan State ranking a spot higher than Michigan would also seem to support that a bit. Once you get past the obvious top brands, there’s some correlation between market size and fan base size, too (where larger market/state teams seem to overperform a bit compared to a lot of the stronger in-person attendance teams that are in smaller markets, which once again makes some sense if TV viewership is taken into account).

Michigan fans split between Michigan and Michigan State. Combined they come to 5.8M. Ohio State at 6.3M doesn’t have another flagship public school to compete with in Ohio and they have a slightly larger population than Michigan, thus I’d say that sounds about right. UCLA is located in a region with 25 million people. They are also the region’s only public power 5 school and have long been the most applied to university in the world. USC is of course the other power 5 school in the region but they are also a smaller private school with smaller alumni base. It also stands to reason that some alumni of other southern California UC schools (UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego, UC Irvine) might adopt UCLA as their team. Arizona State for instance has a enormous alumni base (I’m guessing largest in the country). That is probably why they rank ahead of a school like Oregon, for example, which despite being a public school has a very small size alumni base. Boston College is based in a large market without power 5 competition. Clemson has to contend with with South Carolina and South Carolina isn’t a highly populated state to begin with. Clemson also hasn’t been powerhouse for that long. It’s younger people who adopt a good team from their youth as they grow up. The only ranking here I can’t get my head around is Duke although admittedly I’m not familiar with the dynamics of colleges in North Carolina. There may very well be valid reasons why they are so popular, I’m just not familiar with the region. For Illinois, it has a huge population state and the Illini are the only flagship power 5 public school. There is Northwestern near Chicago but someone told me they don’t have very many fans. I assume they are like a Stanford with academics but not a big fan base. Oklahoma isn’t a large population state to begin with plus the Sooners have Oklahoma State to contend with.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2022 10:54 PM by ShowtimeBruin.)
08-01-2022 10:43 PM
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ShowtimeBruin Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Fanbase study
(08-01-2022 11:44 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Here is the methodology: They used a survey of just 6,426 respondents.

https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/About/...ology.aspx

That is a HUGE SAMPLE SIZE for a college football study.

Let me put that into perspective for you. In the 2020 Presidential election, there was a combined total of about 160 million votes casted (sure some of these might have been dead people voting and mules casting dozens of votes but even if true those were limited to few swing states amounting to an insignificant portion in the grand scheme of 160 million votes; after all the entire election came down to just 32,000 votes in a few states). Out of the 10 national presidential polls conducted, one of them had a sample size amounting to 1/10,000 voters, another 1/18,000 voters, and the rest had a sample size between 1/107,000 voters—1/160,000 voters.

This college football study used a sample size of roughly 6,400 respondents out of a universe of 103 million power 5 college football fans, amounting to 1/16,000 fans. That makes it a sample size equating 7-10 times larger than the overwhelming majority of national presidential polls conducted and larger than all but one of them, which was a significant outlier.

This study actually seems pretty sound. People who watch and attend games are a good measure of fans. I’d argue fan attendance could be problematic due to unique factors for every school but regardless it’s certainly far better and more scientific than those studies that use Google searches or social media likes. A school’s fan base size often comes down to several factors:
1) combined regional (i.e. sphere of influence) market sizes (doesn’t necessarily overlap with state population but often does);
2) competing regional school (many region’s split fan bases, especially two competing public schools like Michigan/Michigan State vs Ohio State).
3) alumni size;
4) power 5 school;
5) Longterm football performance or traditional powerhouse status.

Sources:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-bide.../national/
https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-conten...esults.pdf
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 08:00 PM by ShowtimeBruin.)
08-02-2022 05:26 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Fanbase study
(08-02-2022 05:26 PM)ShowtimeBruin Wrote:  
(08-01-2022 11:44 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Here is the methodology: They used a survey of just 6,426 respondents.

https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/About/...ology.aspx

This study actually seems pretty sound.

- Several schools have "0" fans under the age of 25
- Boston College (1.5M) has 12x as many fans as Ole Miss (136k)
- Boston College (1.5M) has 5x as many fans as Louisville (270k)
- Boston College (1.5M) has nearly double the fans as Oregon (966k)
- Mississippi St (516k) has 4x as many fans as Ole Miss (136k)
- Northwestern (402k) has more fans than Virginia Tech (390k) & Louisville (270k)
- Boston College & Minnesota have more fans than Tennessee & Nebraska
- Illinois (1.72M) has more fans than Oklahoma (1.70M)
- Michigan St (2.94M) has more fans than Michigan (2.88M)

You're also comparing a presidential poll where there's 2 candidates to a P5 poll where there's 69 candidates. The sample size for a presidential poll does not work for a P5 poll, as evidenced by the hurricane of nonsensical results.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 06:40 PM by IWokeUpLikeThis.)
08-02-2022 06:26 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Fanbase study
The study makes the assumption that population is somehow connected to fandom. Its the logical explanation for the obvious anomalies in the results.

I’m still trying to figure out how to tell all my kids, who have season tickets and my grandkids, who attend every game, they don’t exist. 03-lmfao
08-02-2022 08:31 PM
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ShowtimeBruin Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Fanbase study
(08-01-2022 09:18 AM)johnintx Wrote:  Basketball has to come into play here. There are lots of televised games to work with.

Oklahoma is a football blueblood with a proud and decent basketball program that has relatively little fan interest. Kansas has a putrid football program with little fan interest, but a blueblood basketball program that won the national championship last season. But with all that, OU has 1.7 million fans, and KU has a million?

And no other B12 school besides Texas can even break a million.
I just took a look at the Excel spreadsheet for the study and you’re correct it’s a survey asking about people’s favorite school (football/basketball) to root for among those who attended/watched college football games in 2021. It’s not specifically asking about favorite college football or basketball team. It’s both. They have done the study since 2017. They also have studies for those who attended/watched college basketball, NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, MLS etc games. I’m curious to look at those when I get home on my computer.

They also ask tons of other questions like how do you watch games at home, own smartphone, cable subscriber, what’s your favorite NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL, MLS team (if any). Thus, for the attended/watched college football survey (the one we’re talking about), the Atlanta Braves are the second most popular MLB team, not far behind the Yankees. At first, I was a bit thrown off by this but then it occurred to me that southerners/SEC people make up a big share of those who attend/watch college football, and thus, they disproportionately like the Atlanta Braves.
08-02-2022 11:52 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Fanbase study
(08-02-2022 06:26 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(08-02-2022 05:26 PM)ShowtimeBruin Wrote:  
(08-01-2022 11:44 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Here is the methodology: They used a survey of just 6,426 respondents.

https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/About/...ology.aspx

This study actually seems pretty sound.

- Several schools have "0" fans under the age of 25
- Boston College (1.5M) has 12x as many fans as Ole Miss (136k)
- Boston College (1.5M) has 5x as many fans as Louisville (270k)
- Boston College (1.5M) has nearly double the fans as Oregon (966k)
- Mississippi St (516k) has 4x as many fans as Ole Miss (136k)
- Northwestern (402k) has more fans than Virginia Tech (390k) & Louisville (270k)
- Boston College & Minnesota have more fans than Tennessee & Nebraska
- Illinois (1.72M) has more fans than Oklahoma (1.70M)
- Michigan St (2.94M) has more fans than Michigan (2.88M)

You're also comparing a presidential poll where there's 2 candidates to a P5 poll where there's 69 candidates. The sample size for a presidential poll does not work for a P5 poll, as evidenced by the hurricane of nonsensical results.

Did Matt Damon and Ben Affleck perform this study?
08-03-2022 12:46 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Fanbase study
Boston College had horrible attendance and TV viewership even when they were an above average ACC team in the oughts. They were the original lesson in expanding just to get a big TV market.
08-03-2022 06:28 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Fanbase study
(08-02-2022 08:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The study makes the assumption that population is somehow connected to fandom. Its the logical explanation for the obvious anomalies in the results.

I’m still trying to figure out how to tell all my kids, who have season tickets and my grandkids, who attend every game, they don’t exist. 03-lmfao



It sure seems like it.


There’s long been a supposition that big city teams have more nominal fans who only half pay attention to the team. Especially in years where the team isn’t doing well. These fans would probably click yes in an internet survey asking if they were a fan, but if they only watch half the team’s games they’d only have half the value for conferences that a normal fan does.

But even if these big market fans have a lot of nominal fans claiming to be fans in the survey, I think there’s no way that BC possibly has more fans than Clemson.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2022 06:38 PM by Poster.)
08-03-2022 06:38 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Fanbase study
(08-03-2022 06:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  Boston College had horrible attendance and TV viewership even when they were an above average ACC team in the oughts. They were the original lesson in expanding just to get a big TV market.

BC was typically in their 40s in attendance in a 44,500 seat stadium. I wouldn't call that "horrible." Duke, Wake, Washington St. They had horrible attendance. BC, on the other hand, was similar to a lot of the bottom half of the P5. And they are a relatively small private school.
08-07-2022 05:01 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Exclamation RE: Fanbase study
(08-07-2022 05:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  Boston College had horrible attendance and TV viewership even when they were an above average ACC team in the oughts. They were the original lesson in expanding just to get a big TV market.

BC was typically in their 40s in attendance in a 44,500 seat stadium. I wouldn't call that "horrible." Duke, Wake, Washington St. They had horrible attendance. BC, on the other hand, was similar to a lot of the bottom half of the P5. And they are a relatively small private school.

Here's 2019 (which is after a string of .500 seasons for BC):
Code:
Clemson          80,868    ================
Virginia Tech    58,293    ===========
N.C. State       56,466    ===========
Florida State    54,019    ==========
Miami (FL)       52,829    ==========
North Carolina   50,500    ==========
U. of Louisville 49,913    =========
U. of Virginia   47,863    =========
Georgia Tech     44,599    ========
U. of Pittsburgh 43,372    ========
Syracuse U.      42,164    ========
Boston College   34,185    ======
Wake Forest      26,999    =====
Duke Univ.       25,811    =====
08-09-2022 11:59 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Fanbase study
(08-07-2022 05:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  Boston College had horrible attendance and TV viewership even when they were an above average ACC team in the oughts. They were the original lesson in expanding just to get a big TV market.

BC was typically in their 40s in attendance in a 44,500 seat stadium. I wouldn't call that "horrible." Duke, Wake, Washington St. They had horrible attendance. BC, on the other hand, was similar to a lot of the bottom half of the P5. And they are a relatively small private school.



Well, in the 2011-12 school year, BC apparently ranked last in the entire ACC in combined basketball and football viewership. They were even worse than Wake Forest.

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2012/5/15...in-the-acc


Boston College was 4-8 in football that year. But that was before they went through a whole decade of being subpar in football. (Which takes more of a toll on tv ratings than just one bad year does.)
08-10-2022 12:16 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Fanbase study
(08-09-2022 11:59 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(08-07-2022 05:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-03-2022 06:28 PM)Poster Wrote:  Boston College had horrible attendance and TV viewership even when they were an above average ACC team in the oughts. They were the original lesson in expanding just to get a big TV market.

BC was typically in their 40s in attendance in a 44,500 seat stadium. I wouldn't call that "horrible." Duke, Wake, Washington St. They had horrible attendance. BC, on the other hand, was similar to a lot of the bottom half of the P5. And they are a relatively small private school.

Here's 2019 (which is after a string of .500 seasons for BC):
Code:
Clemson          80,868    ================
Virginia Tech    58,293    ===========
N.C. State       56,466    ===========
Florida State    54,019    ==========
Miami (FL)       52,829    ==========
North Carolina   50,500    ==========
U. of Louisville 49,913    =========
U. of Virginia   47,863    =========
Georgia Tech     44,599    ========
U. of Pittsburgh 43,372    ========
Syracuse U.      42,164    ========
Boston College   34,185    ======
Wake Forest      26,999    =====
Duke Univ.       25,811    =====



BC’s top attendance for any game in 2019 was 39,352 vs Wake Forest. Their lowest attendance was 30,111 vs Richmond, and they only got 30,275 for the NCSU game.


Even in 2009, they only got over 40,000 fans for two home games. (And both of those games were less than 42,000 fans.) And CFB attendance in general was better in 2009 than it is now. That was before people started wasting their Saturdays going God knows what on their IPhones rather than than going to football games.
08-10-2022 12:29 PM
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