(07-30-2022 02:04 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  14 with SDSU, Boise, Col St and SMU. Give them all half shares for the first contract.

They have to be worth something collectively on the basis of inventory alone.

It's not that that they literally have no value. But the value is way less than the other schools, which effectively lowers everyone's take. So it doesn't seem to make much sense. A lot of crappy inventory does not equal a small amount of good inventory.

(07-30-2022 11:03 PM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  There’s a much greater chance of there not even being a PAC in the next two years. Much higher probability that Washington state and Oregon State are absorbed by the MWC.

Q: A "much greater chance?" Based on what evidence, or on what logic?

The notion that the PAC could implode seems to be based on the assumption that the PAC is going to be raided in the next two years, but recent reports seem to suggest that the Big 12 isn't going to be likely to poach any teams from the PAC.

Although there may be a distant possibility that the ACC or SEC could raid the PAC, the only other conference that seems somewhat likely to raid the PAC is the Big Ten.

It's possible that the Big Ten might poach two more PAC schools at some point in the future, such as Cal and Stanford or Washington and Oregon, but there's no guarantee that they will, and thus far, they've only expanded to maintain the same number of member schools as the SEC has. They might not expand again unless/until the SEC announces that they're expanding from 16 to 18 or 20.

Even if the Big Ten does poach 2 or 3 more PAC schools, that wouldn't be sufficient to cause the PAC to implode. Rather than "implode," the PAC would no doubt "reload."

For these reasons, it seems very unlikely that the PAC will disappear at any point in the foreseeable future. They seem much more likely to add as many western G5 schools as they need to add in order to remain viable.

Worst case scenario - if they were to lose 4 more schools:

Legacy Division (6 PAC remainers, such as):

Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, & Arizona St.

New Division:

SDSU, SDSU, Gonzaga/Hawaii, Boise St., Colorado St., & Utah St.

.

12: San Diego St, SMU

North: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Washington, Washington St
South: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, San Diego St, SMU, Utah

14: Hawaii, UNLV

North: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington St
South: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Hawaii, San Diego St, SMU, UNLV

TV viewership are skewed in their reporting. Almost all of the games shown on channels like CBS Sports, FS1, FS2 and ESPNU have no data reported, so they count as a zero for the ratings, which lowers the teams average viewership ratings. Those are channels where most of G5 have their games. However, when SDSU has been on the main channels they draw fairly well. SDSU vs Boise was on CBS last year and drew 1.95M viewers. SDSU vs UTSA in their ESPN bowl game drew 1.15M viewers. When SDSU played in the MW championship on FOX last year they drew 816k viewers, which was expected as they were up against the SEC and ACC championship games at the same time. The MW still doubled the viewership of the Sunbelt Championship during the same time on champ Saturday.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/

(07-30-2022 11:40 PM)Aztec Since 88 Wrote:  TV viewership are skewed in their reporting. Almost all of the games shown on channels like CBS Sports, FS1, FS2 and ESPNU have no data reported, so they count as a zero for the ratings, which lowers the teams average viewership ratings. Those are channels where most of G5 have their games. However, when SDSU has been on the main channels they draw fairly well. SDSU vs Boise was on CBS last year and drew 1.95M viewers. SDSU vs UTSA in their ESPN bowl game drew 1.15M viewers. When SDSU played in the MW championship on FOX last year they drew 816k viewers, which was expected as they were up against the SEC and ACC championship games at the same time. The MW still doubled the viewership of the Sunbelt Championship during the same time on champ Saturday.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/

I was referring to the report by the Baylor guy who used the 10 year data Mandel used. He didn't discuss the western 14 much. My assumption, which might not be correct, was that those MWC schools + Tulsa and SMU were mostly on the same networks. And SDSU was just average among those 14 G5 schools.

(07-30-2022 11:18 PM)Jericho Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:04 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  14 with SDSU, Boise, Col St and SMU. Give them all half shares for the first contract.

They have to be worth something collectively on the basis of inventory alone.

It's not that that they literally have no value. But the value is way less than the other schools, which effectively lowers everyone's take. So it doesn't seem to make much sense. A lot of crappy inventory does not equal a small amount of good inventory.

The problem with your argument, here, is that you have no way of knowing what the actual value of SMU or Boise State would be if they join the PAC.

Once a team starts playing in a P5 conference - - even if it isn't a very strong FB program - - viewership tends to shoot way up.

Consider Rutgers, for example. Their viewership improved after they joined the Big Ten, due to playing high viewership games, such as:

11/1/14 (vs. Wisconsin) 1.94 million viewers
11/24/15 (vs. Ohio State): 5.29 million viewers
1/8/16 (vs. Michigan): 1.28 million viewers
11/25/17 (vs. MSU): 2.012 million viewers
11/24/18 (vs. MSU): 3.038 million viewers

That's what joining a power conference did to boost the viewership of a struggling program like Rutgers.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Now, to get some idea of what the true "value" of Boise State would be if they start playing power conference teams on a regular basis, consider these data:

10/9/21 Boise St. vs. BYU: 2.244 million viewers
8/31/19 Boise St. vs. Florida St: 1.19 million viewers
9/15/18 Boise St. vs. Oklahoma St: 1.438 million viewers

For that matter, consider some of the highlights from Boise State's viewership data vs. G5 teams:

9/25/21 Boise St. vs. Utah St.: 804,000 viewers
9/2/21 Boise St. vs. UCF: 841,000 viewers
12/19/20 Boise St. vs. SJSU: 1.42 million viewers
11/9/19 Boise St. vs. Wyoming: 1.18 million viewers
11/24/18 Boise St. vs. Utah St 1.078 million viewers

Data such as these would seriously challenge any suggestion that Boise State's "value is way less than the other (PAC) schools."

.

(07-31-2022 12:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 11:18 PM)Jericho Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:04 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  14 with SDSU, Boise, Col St and SMU. Give them all half shares for the first contract.

They have to be worth something collectively on the basis of inventory alone.

It's not that that they literally have no value. But the value is way less than the other schools, which effectively lowers everyone's take. So it doesn't seem to make much sense. A lot of crappy inventory does not equal a small amount of good inventory.

The problem with your argument, here, is that you have no way of knowing what the actual value of SMU or Boise State would be if they join the PAC.

Once a team starts playing in a P5 conference - - even if it isn't a very strong FB program - - viewership tends to shoot way up.

Consider Rutgers, for example. Their viewership improved after they joined the Big Ten, due to playing high viewership games, such as:

11/1/14 (vs. Wisconsin) 1.94 million viewers
11/24/15 (vs. Ohio State): 5.29 million viewers
1/8/16 (vs. Michigan): 1.28 million viewers
11/25/17 (vs. MSU): 2.012 million viewers
11/24/18 (vs. MSU): 3.038 million viewers

That's what joining a power conference did to boost the viewership of a struggling program like Rutgers.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Now, to get some idea of what the true "value" of Boise State would be if they start playing power conference teams on a regular basis, consider these data:

10/9/21 Boise St. vs. BYU: 2.244 million viewers
8/31/19 Boise St. vs. Florida St: 1.19 million viewers
9/15/18 Boise St. vs. Oklahoma St: 1.438 million viewers

For that matter, consider some of the highlights from Boise State's viewership data vs. G5 teams:

9/25/21 Boise St. vs. Utah St.: 804,000 viewers
9/2/21 Boise St. vs. UCF: 841,000 viewers
12/19/20 Boise St. vs. SJSU: 1.42 million viewers
11/9/19 Boise St. vs. Wyoming: 1.18 million viewers
11/24/18 Boise St. vs. Utah St 1.078 million viewers

Data such as these would seriously challenge any suggestion that Boise State's "value is way less than the other (PAC) schools."

.

Presuming the data you posted is the most watched games for each school which seems wrong but it might be true.

Our best game hits at 2.224M while Rutgers hits at 5.29M?

It still looks like we’re not close, even to Rutgers. Averaging the top 3 games: Boise St (1.854M) vs Rutgers (3.447M).

(07-31-2022 12:23 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(07-31-2022 12:06 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 11:18 PM)Jericho Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:04 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  14 with SDSU, Boise, Col St and SMU. Give them all half shares for the first contract.

They have to be worth something collectively on the basis of inventory alone.

It's not that that they literally have no value. But the value is way less than the other schools, which effectively lowers everyone's take. So it doesn't seem to make much sense. A lot of crappy inventory does not equal a small amount of good inventory.

The problem with your argument, here, is that you have no way of knowing what the actual value of SMU or Boise State would be if they join the PAC.

Once a team starts playing in a P5 conference - - even if it isn't a very strong FB program - - viewership tends to shoot way up.

Consider Rutgers, for example. Their viewership improved after they joined the Big Ten, due to playing high viewership games, such as:

11/1/14 (vs. Wisconsin) 1.94 million viewers
11/24/15 (vs. Ohio State): 5.29 million viewers
1/8/16 (vs. Michigan): 1.28 million viewers
11/25/17 (vs. MSU): 2.012 million viewers
11/24/18 (vs. MSU): 3.038 million viewers

That's what joining a power conference did to boost the viewership of a struggling program like Rutgers.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Now, to get some idea of what the true "value" of Boise State would be if they start playing power conference teams on a regular basis, consider these data:

10/9/21 Boise St. vs. BYU: 2.244 million viewers
8/31/19 Boise St. vs. Florida St: 1.19 million viewers
9/15/18 Boise St. vs. Oklahoma St: 1.438 million viewers

For that matter, consider some of the highlights from Boise State's viewership data vs. G5 teams:

9/25/21 Boise St. vs. Utah St.: 804,000 viewers
9/2/21 Boise St. vs. UCF: 841,000 viewers
12/19/20 Boise St. vs. SJSU: 1.42 million viewers
11/9/19 Boise St. vs. Wyoming: 1.18 million viewers
11/24/18 Boise St. vs. Utah St 1.078 million viewers

Data such as these would seriously challenge any suggestion that Boise State's "value is way less than the other (PAC) schools."

.

Presuming the data you posted is the most watched games for each school which seems wrong but it might be true.

Our best game hits at 2.224M while Rutgers hits at 5.29M?

It still looks like we’re not close, even to Rutgers. Averaging the top 3 games: Boise St (1.854M) vs Rutgers (3.447M).

Doesn't matter, because comparing a G5 to a P5 team is Apples to Oranges.

You can't compare any Boise vs. Rutgers attendance figures until Boise joins a power conference.

Besides, Boise State has had better average viewership than Rutgers has had, despite playing in a G5 conference.

Boise vs. SJSU: 1.42M
Boise vs. CSU: 292K
Boise vs. BYU: 680K
Boise vs. UT ST: 549K

2020 season average: 669,500 viewers per game

Rutgers vs. Nebraska: 610K
Rutgers vs. Maryland: "not available" (i.e., piss poor)
Rutgers vs. Penn St: 594K
Rutgers vs. Purdue: 464K
Rutgers vs. Indiana: 506K
Rutgers vs. MSU: 608K

2020 season average: 556,400 viewers per game (not including RU vs MD).

The point is that, if Boise State can generate more viewers per game (playing in a G5 conference) than a Big Ten team such as Rutgers can, just imagine how much higher Boise State's viewership could be when they play in a P5 conference?

An extrapolation based on the data from Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and BYU suggests that Boise State's average viewership - - if/when they start playing in a power conference - - could exceed their current/previous viewership by 800,000+ viewers per game.

(07-30-2022 10:43 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Gonzaga is 79th (higher than some others listed here) in U.S. News and World Report.

RICE #17

Hawaii #162

SDSU #67

Boise St. below 300

Fresno St. #213

Glad conferences do not go by USNWR to measure academics. Rice's academics is now like 110 and Boise State is like 214th.

(07-30-2022 10:56 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 10:43 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Gonzaga is 79th (higher than some others listed here) in U.S. News and World Report.

RICE #17

Hawaii #162

SDSU #67

Boise St. below 300

Fresno St. #213

UNLV #249

Colorado St. #67

SMU #68

Rankings listed above are not correct! The 2022 US News rankings for National Universities is as follows:
Rice - 17
SMU - 68
Gonzaga - 79
SDSU- 148 (tie)
Colorado State - 148 (tie)
Fresno State - 213
UNLV - 249
Boise State - shows 299 to 391

(07-30-2022 10:56 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 10:43 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Gonzaga is 79th (higher than some others listed here) in U.S. News and World Report.

RICE #17

Hawaii #162

SDSU #67

Boise St. below 300

Fresno St. #213

UNLV #249

Colorado St. #67

SMU #68

Rankings listed above are not correct! The 2022 US News rankings for National Universities is as follows:
Rice - 17
SMU - 68
Gonzaga - 79
SDSU- 148 (tie)
Colorado State - 148 (tie)
Fresno State - 213
UNLV - 249
Boise State - shows 299 to 391

(07-30-2022 10:56 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 10:43 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  Gonzaga is 79th (higher than some others listed here) in U.S. News and World Report.

RICE #17

Hawaii #162

SDSU #67

Boise St. below 300

Fresno St. #213

UNLV #249

Colorado St. #67

SMU #68

Rankings listed above are not correct! The 2022 US News rankings for National Universities is as follows:
Rice - 17
SMU - 68
Gonzaga - 79
SDSU- 148 (tie)
Colorado State - 148 (tie)
Fresno State - 213
UNLV - 249
Boise State - shows 299 to 391

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the "M" in "SMU" still stand for Methodist? The article suggests otherwise.

Boise, Fresno and UNLV will never be in the PAC. Same can be said for all MWC programs not named AFA or SDSU.

The PAC will either raid the B12 for 4-5 schools + SDSU or they will be raided. It should be a no brainer that the B10 will not leave USC and UCLA on an island but it could happen.

(07-31-2022 08:58 AM)Ned Low Wrote:  Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the "M" in "SMU" still stand for Methodist? The article suggests otherwise.

Boise, Fresno and UNLV will never be in the PAC. Same can be said for all MWC programs not named AFA or SDSU.

The PAC will either raid the B12 for 4-5 schools + SDSU or they will be raided. It should be a no brainer that the B10 will not leave USC and UCLA on an island but it could happen.

The M does stand for Methodist, but SMU, Like TCU, has not been a religious backed/based school for at least 4 decades. On the other hand, Baylor is a religious school.

I don’t ever want to hear any school or conference talk about academics
ever again.

If they are not worried (USC & UCLA) about missed class time
to join the Big 10 with teams traveling to New Jersey and Maryland then they are not serious about academics.

It is a joke. Revenue trumps everything.
At least the SEC has all contiguous states.
So fans can still travel by car.

Nobody cares about the fans that follow their teams.
In conference USA last fall the 14 Athletic Directors were
all in a weekend meeting (not saying a word about leaving)
a day later 6 schools announced
They were leaving for the AAC.

It’s A total joke. Go for the dollars and forget
The fans.

(07-31-2022 09:18 AM)Hilltop75 Wrote:  I don’t ever want to hear any school or conference talk about academics
ever again.

If they are not worried (USC & UCLA) about missed class time
to join the Big 10 with teams traveling to New Jersey and Maryland then they are not serious about academics.

It is a joke. Revenue trumps everything.
At least the SEC has all contiguous states.
So fans can still travel by car.

Nobody cares about the fans that follow their teams.
In conference USA last fall the 14 Athletic Directors were
all in a weekend meeting (not saying a word about leaving)
a day later 6 schools announced
They were leaving for the AAC.

It’s A total joke. Go for the dollars and forget
The fans.

You're right. What hypocrisy to claim that academics is a priority and then send student athletes 2,000 or 3,000 miles away to play 75% of their road games.

In addition, all those air miles make an appalling mockery of their commitment to reduce our carbon footprint and protect the climate. Just for some c@$h. Creeps.

.

(07-30-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 08:30 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  Whatever they do, just drop number and go by the PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference)

A PAC-12 President last month literally called the league "the Pacific Athletic Conference" even though it's never been called that.

Uhhh…it has many times. I have seen commercials stating the Pacific Athletic Conference…the conference of champions.

(07-31-2022 09:25 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 10:56 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 08:30 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  Whatever they do, just drop number and go by the PAC (Pacific Athletic Conference)

A PAC-12 President last month literally called the league "the Pacific Athletic Conference" even though it's never been called that.

Uhhh…it has many times. I have seen commercials stating the Pacific Athletic Conference…the conference of champions.

The “Pacific Athletic Conference” is literally a youth football league in WA/OR.

The PAC-12 has never - at any point in its history - been called the Pacific Athletic Conference.

The league has only been called by the following names:
Athletic Association of Western Universities (AAWU)
Pacific-8 Conference (PAC-8)
Pacific-10 Conference (PAC-10)
Pacific-12 Conference (PAC-12)

(07-30-2022 10:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 09:15 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:49 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 01:57 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Good article here by Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Union-Tribune on SDSU and Pac-12 expansion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandieg...f_amp=true

Zeigler did not quite get it right...:

Kliavkoff never said that SDSU had to be on par with the top of the conference academically and the PAC knows that TV numbers are not relevant when comparing the MWC and PAC. The Boise State-SDSU game last season on CBS got 1.95 million viewers. That was an encouraging sign. But most MWC games are on at night on FS1 or CBSSN, and the TV ratings are just not good for those games. In San Diego, SDSU would own the TV market for college football

True.

SDSU's TV viewership numbers would probably be similar to most P5 schools vs. a P5 schedule, much like Cincy's and BYU's are likely to be when they start playing eight Big 12 teams per year.

These are BYU's 2021 viewership numbers in their regular season games vs. P5 opponents:

11/27/21 (BYU/USC): 1.458 million viewers
10/30/21 (UVA/BYU): 678,000 viewers
10/23/21 (BYU/WSU): 466,000 viewers
10/16/21 (BYU/BAYLOR): 1.440 million viewers
9/18/21 (ASU/BYU): 1.498 million viewers
9/11/21 (UTAH/BYU): 1.503 million viewers
9/4/21 (BYU/ARIZONA): 933,000 viewers

average vs. P5 opponents: 1.139 million viewers per game

BYU's season average (including 5 non-P5 opponents): 714,000 viewers

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50



Cincinnati:

9/18/21 (CINCY/INDIANA): 1.681 million viewers
10/2/21 (CINCY/ND): 3.805 million viewers

Cincy's season average (mostly non-P5 opponents): 430,000 viewers

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50


UCF:

9/11/21 (UCF/LOUISVILLE): 1.881 million viewers

UCF's season average (mostly non-P5 opponents): 566,000 viewers

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50


Houston:

9/11/21 (TEXAS TECH/HOUSTON): 831,000 viewers

Houston's season average (mostly non-P5 opponents): 689,000 viewers

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


BYU/Cincinnati/UCF/Houston's average vs. P5 opponents: 1.470 million viewers per game.

Average viewership per game: 599,750 viewers

Summary: On average, BYU, Cincy, UCF, and Houston had a surplus of 870,250 more viewers per game vs. P5 opponents, compared to their full season average per game viewership vs. all (P5 and non-P5) opponents.


.

That Baylor guy's study had a limited sample, but it showed SDSU being 8th out of 14 western major G5s (MWC + Tulsa + SMU). UNLV was dead last (which is pretty believable-they have been really bad). Boise was below all the Pac schools but not by far. It was a good gap to Tulsa, SMU and Fresno. Then a bit of a gap to the rest.

True but Boise’s numbers during the ESPN year are somewhat a bi product of their term sheet that insured all their home games were on ESPN while the rest of the MWC’s top teams were on CBSSports Network. As others have pointed out in different context….. the platform and time matter.

(07-30-2022 03:12 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 03:03 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:58 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 02:49 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(07-30-2022 01:57 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Good article here by Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Union-Tribune on SDSU and Pac-12 expansion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandieg...f_amp=true

Zeigler did not quite get it right:
"We will look at media value, athletic strength, academic and cultural fit, and geography from a recruiting and student-athlete experience standpoint," said Kiavkoff.

Zeigler: "He outlined four criteria: media rights value, competitive strength, academic fit and geography. He declined to discuss specific expansion targets, but he didn’t have to. San Diego State doesn’t check all four boxes — its TV numbers aren’t eye-popping and its academics, though improving, are not yet on par with the top of the conference — but it checks enough of them to clearly separate from college football’s next echelon."

Kliavkoff never said that SDSU had to be on par with the top of the conference academically and the PAC knows that TV numbers are not relevant when comparing the MWC and PAC. The Boise State-SDSU game last season on CBS got 1.95 million viewers. That was an encouraging sign. But most MWC games are on at night on FS1 or CBSSN, and the TV ratings are just not good for those games. In San Diego, SDSU would own the TV market for college football.

Boise State's ratings against UCF, BYU, Oklahoma State and San Diego State that drew more than a million Boise State is clearly the top runner to the P5. Their viewership was better than Arizona, California, Oregon State and Colorado, and close to Arizona State. Move them in the PAC 12? They could easily past Arizona State and Washington State.

Academically Boise is now "ok" because of their co-flagship status in Idaho.

Something Fresno and Gonzaga can't even get close to touching.

That has no value.

USNWR isn't great, but just for illustration, Fresno is #213 and Boise is in the "also rans," #s 299-391. Washington St. is the bottom of the Pac at #179.

And SDSU is #148.