B1G + California, Kansas, Missouri, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, Washington
SEC - Missouri + Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, Virginia Tech

If a school wants the best opportunity to recruit the right players to win a football NC, the correct recruiting ground is strongly suggested to be SEC country. Ergo, I see no SEC school leaving the SEC for the B1G. I also doubt any B1G school leaves the B1G for the SEC, although the probability B1G to SEC is a bit higher than vice-versa, IMO.

I personally think the "sweet spot" for a large conference is 20 schools, but let's assume 24 schools are created given Warren suggesting the B1G could go big. So, between the SEC and B1G, I see the B1G expanding again first because I think ND goes to the B1G.

B1G: ND, Stanford, Cal, UO, WA - now the B1G is at 21. Without ND, the ACC is undermined and is next up.

Common Targets: FSU, UNC, UVA.
Other Potential B1G Targets: Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, and, possibly Clemson (assuming Warren is serious about ignoring AAU, which I doubt).

Now things get even more speculative.

I think to both the SEC and the B1G, UNC is the first target. Also, JR thinks UNC-Duke are connected and I could believe that. To get to 24, the B1G could take UNC, Duke and maybe UVA, maybe FSU, maybe Miami, maybe GT, maybe Clemson.

Personally, I think UNC stays south, along with its pal, Duke. UNC and Duke to the SEC. The SEC is at 18.

I could see FSU going against its interest again and going to the B1G. Give the B1G UVA also. The B1G is at 23. I give the B1G its choice of whichever is left, but I'm thinking GT or Miami, neither of which, IMO, the SEC cares about (except that these schools give the B1G additional footholds in the south).

The SEC is up. So, what does the SEC want? Does the SEC want only two more, stop at 20, creating a 20-way split, thus keeping the annual income high? Maybe. If so, then the SEC probably focuses on football some more, taking whatever football schools are left over. Probably Clemson. Even if Miami is there, I doubt Miami at 20, but maybe. FSU almost for sure if FSU is there.

Or at 20 does the SEC want stronger basketball. Maybe Kansas? Maybe Louisville? Or maybe Kansas and Louisville over, say, Clemson?

If the SEC chooses to match the B1G at 24, then the SEC could go big on both football and basketball AND invade the north, especially if the B1G invaded the south. Maybe Clemson and one of whoever is left over in Florida. Now the SEC is at 20 (assuming UNC and Duke).

Now focus on basketball? Kansas? Louisville? Maybe Syracuse? Maybe Pitt? Would WVU make sense if the SEC took Pitt?

If both the SEC and B1G were at 24, then, along with one other league, probably the B12, the 3 conferences would be prime for a breakaway. A breakaway would lay a foundation for a private March Madness and significant basketball money. If the 3 leagues eventually pooled their schools, a gigantic TV deal would someday lie in the future.

(07-29-2022 12:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 09:59 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Going to go with Dan Patrick's list that he said was from his source.

Clemson, Miami, Florida State, UCF, Georgia Tech, and Louisville would be among the first.

UCF-Orlando is not getting an SEC invite

Miami and FSU can control this, it is just a matter of how bloody things need to get.

My guess is they don't need to actually go with such tactics, as the rest of the ACC knows that those two can justify extreme actions in it gets them in BIG or SEC. ESPN/SEC could delay, but FOX/BIG will make sure they won't imo

Play neutral site games for home games? Not an issue- less of a disruption than COVID, still likely ahead in budget, and an ACC without getting rights to the top football schools is dead. It does not need to be 100% likely to work, just shift enough risk to leftovers that they take a settlement. These kind of things occur when $800 million is at risk, and when program status is existentially threatened.

(07-29-2022 12:33 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Well according to the WVU Dude a couple of days ago said ESPN and FOX were secretly conspiring to break up both the PAC and ACC at the same time so both of the P2 can get to 24 each with an agreement with the Big XII...

Pinky:
What are we going to do tonight, Dude Brain?

Dude Brain:
Same thing we do every night, Pinky. Try to destroy the ACC!

(07-29-2022 01:30 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 10:30 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 09:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  they could not have more than 20 teams and Notre Dame decides to remain independent and the ACC allows schools to buy their way out of the GoR?

Since this seems to be the season for hypotheticals, what strategy would the two Big Dogs pursue? Would they be competing for the same 8 schools? Or would they surprise us?

My guess is the Big Ten would take Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington and the SEC would settle for Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and NC State.

When I say "settle" I mean they may prefer the state flagships UNC and Virginia, but those schools might want to remain the alpha males of the ACC instead of taking their lumps as SEC bottom feeders in football. And ceding VT and NCSU to the SEC allows UNC, Virginia and Duke to maintain all their ACC rivalry games.

I could see a fairly high price for those four to buy their way out. Maybe something like $20-25 million a year for the remaining 12 years of the GoR split among the ten schools that stay in the ACC. It wouldn't cost anything for the PAC schools to leave.

Oddly enough, the settlement on a GOR break-up is probably different for FSU or Miami than it would be for UNC or UVa. The GOR enabled the media deal, and FSU & Miami are the essential pieces in ESPN’s interest in the ACC football. Without the Florida schools, the ACC media deal is underwater to ESPN. IIRC, there was a look-in provision for the media deal in 2021 that passed without any action (likely bad timing for the ACC as FSU and Miami…as well as a number of other marketable contenders…have struggled). Losing UNC & UVa hurts with basketball, which is a fraction of ESPN’s overall interest.

In addition, ACC schools that want to leave have to contend with: 1) exit fees at 3x conference payouts (currently about $110M) and 2) unanimity on a GOR settlement amount. Leaving with settlement of $20 to $25M per year sounds like a bargain.

It sounds like a bargain, but $1.2 billion isn't exactly chump change. It would mean the remaining ACC teams would get an additional $10 million a year each until the GoR expires. If the alternative is everybody stay put, each ACC team would get $0 additional dollars a year.

$25 million a year = the exit fee + about $190 million for breaking the GoR. It still leaves the four departing schools with an annual deficit of about $15 million and having to face the much tougher SEC schedule every year.

If you make the buyout too expensive you risk getting nothing except the ill will of ESPN and the SEC. Is that where you want to be in 2036?

IMO, ESPN is ecstatic about the current state of the ACC deal. They have little motivation in having FSU or UNC (or any other “brand” program) leave the ACC. Any GOR buyout would create ill will…it would likely result in a reduction in media payouts for remaining members and a potential lawsuit initiated by ESPN against the ACC. ESPN contractually has FSU and UNC media rights at a bargain rate, and the ACCN is extremely profitable for ESPN.

Maybe I’m missing your point.


With regards to your original question (assuming ND is off the table)…the next 4 candidates

BIG: FSU, Washington, UNC, Stanford (although each of these candidates would try to bring a different partner)
SEC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson

(07-29-2022 09:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  they could not have more than 20 teams and Notre Dame decides to remain independent and the ACC allows schools to buy their way out of the GoR?

Since this seems to be the season for hypotheticals, what strategy would the two Big Dogs pursue? Would they be competing for the same 8 schools? Or would they surprise us?

My guess is the Big Ten would take Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington and the SEC would settle for Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and NC State.

When I say "settle" I mean they may prefer the state flagships UNC and Virginia, but those schools might want to remain the alpha males of the ACC instead of taking their lumps as SEC bottom feeders in football. And ceding VT and NCSU to the SEC allows UNC, Virginia and Duke to maintain all their ACC rivalry games.

I could see a fairly high price for those four to buy their way out. Maybe something like $20-25 million a year for the remaining 12 years of the GoR split among the ten schools that stay in the ACC. It wouldn't cost anything for the PAC schools to leave.

If no Notre Dame, and each can only take 4 more schools. hmm.

I could see them fighting over Florida state. Florida state is near AAU, plus is a footprint in the state of Florida. (Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if all schools in Florida are being analyzed by both the Big10 and the SEC.)

I personally think getting Florida state is 50/50 - a coin flip. But one of them will, plus one or two travel partners. (Georgia tech and/or Miami)

If each can only take 4, then it is in the SEC's (and ESPN's) best interest if the ACC stays intact - So the NC/VA cluster doesn't get poached by the SEC.

And there are benefits to the Big10 as well for the ACC to survive as a decently strong conference. So removing schools from the ACC just because it can be done, may not be the best option, especially if the SEC isn't. VA is "possible", but Maryland already gets them the DC and north Virginia regional coverage, so not a strong likelihood.

But if SEC gets Florida state, then NC/VA/Duke is definitely a possible alternative target.

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Ok, so for the SEC:

Clemson is an obvious choice, and one that the Big10 is less likely to invite (AAU).

As for the Florida state situation, if yes, then also take 2 of Miami, Georgia tech, Kansas, or Louisville.

If no, let Big10 use up its choices east. This forces the Big10 to leave the PAC more intact. Go for which ever school Big10 doesn't take (Miami or Georgia tech), plus Kansas and Louisville.

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And now from the Big10's point of view.

Maybe no Notre dame now, but every decision should have them somewhere in the back of the mind.

So first, Stanford - ND rivalry, brings in bay area, strong academically, etc.

And if yes for Florida state, try for both Georgia tech and Miami. (all 3 have some form of long term ND rivalry)

If you can't get both, then add Arizona state - Big10 alumni region, phoenix area, near-AAU status, etc.

If no for Florida state, the Big10 adds Arizona state and Kansas, plus 1 of: Missouri or Virginia or a PAC school. Or they go after the NC/VA cluster.

I think that if Big10 goes for Kansas, then they should also try to get Missouri, but I think that may be unlikely at this stage. Especially when the Florida and west coast schools are in play.

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So to sum up:

SEC
Clemson
Florida state and 2 of: Miami or Georgia tech or Louisville or Kansas
or no Florida state and 3 of the above

Big10
Stanford
Florida state
Miami and/or Georgia tech
(Arizona state)

or

Stanford
Arizona state
Kansas
and 1 of: Missouri or Virginia or a PAC school

or

Stanford
VA/NC/Duke

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If we went to 24, I think looking at the options above, the other 4 choices seem kind of obvious.

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ACC likely loses several schools - backfill could be from some combination of: USF, UCF, Memphis, Cin, WVa, UConn, Temple, Army, Navy.