(07-29-2022 12:12 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  It'll be ECU and USF and eventually we'll have to replace ULM bc they won't be able to meet the financial obligations of FBS so we'll snag UAB. Yup.

Not going to happen.

(07-27-2022 04:52 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-27-2022 04:47 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  If we start to see the CFP moving toward a 16-team playoff with no auto bids, I think that will give the Sun Belt, AAC and MAC sufficient incentive to put CUSA out of its misery. Everyone will want to position their conference champion to have a shot at one of those playoff spots and that would be more feasible with a G4 (and only eight FBS conferences in total) than with a G5 (and ten).

The reports are saying a 16 team playoffs for the champs of all 10 conferences and 6 at large bids.

what reports?

(07-29-2022 06:52 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(07-28-2022 03:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-28-2022 11:01 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(07-28-2022 10:36 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-27-2022 08:57 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  I don't say this to be disrespectful, but I honestly do not believe ESPN cares who the Sun Belt...or honestly, any G5 or FCS league, add.

Well the poster says the Sun Belt wants "complete" athletic departments when its clear they want football schools. They are the weakest of the FBS conferences overall outside football.

Maybe pre-2022 expansion. They've certainly done well with their 4 additions.

Basketball Bids (last bid) for Current Members

12 - Old Dominion (2019)
8 - South Alabama (2008)
7 - UL Monroe (1996)
6 - Georgia St (2022), UL Lafayette (2014)
5 - James Madison (2013), Marshall (2018)
4 - Coastal Carolina (2015)
3 - Appalachian St (2021), Georgia Southern (1992), Southern Miss (2012)
2 - Texas St (1997), Troy (2017)
1 - Arkansas St (1999)

The 4 new schools combine for over 37% of all the NCAA bids the current schools in the Sun Belt have earned.

All-Time National Championships for Current Members

10 - Old Dominion
6 - Georgia Southern
5 - James Madison
3 - Appalachian St, Marshall
1 - Coastal Carolina, UL Monroe

50% of the Sun Belt schools have won a NCAA national championship. 3/4 of the new additions have won national titles. In fact, only 1 of the 7 schools listed above was a member of the Sun Belt prior to 2014.

Sun Belt States:
Retained from Prior - Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana
2010s - Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas
2020s - Mississippi, Virginia, West Virginia

The conference has made great strides in the last couple rounds of realignment.

It has, especially in football, but its still the weakest in overall sports of the FBS. In 2014, it really wouldn't have been an especially strong FCS conference.

??? who cares about 8 years ago.

We need to work on basketball, but its still been ~CUSA level the last 5 years.

Someone on this board did the basketball Sagarin or RPI the last few years. CUSA 4.0 did pretty well. AAC did not take the better basketball schools. Sun Belt was well behind them.

(07-28-2022 04:20 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(07-28-2022 04:14 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(07-28-2022 04:10 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(07-27-2022 08:57 PM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  

(07-27-2022 05:21 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  ESPN wants WKU. I know that.

SBC wants complete athletic depts.

1+1=2

I don't say this to be disrespectful, but I honestly do not believe ESPN cares who the Sun Belt...or honestly, any G5 or FCS league, add.

Ooofff. Matt usually doesn't call anyone out other than DavidSt.

Not sure I was saying ESPN cares about conference makeup per se, but I do believe, with conviction, that ESPN does have a hoarding issue when it comes to inventory and knows what fanbase will purchase their streaming products.

Just reshuffling chairs. Both AAC and SBC now have 14 members each.

If the AAC had taken, say Ga State instead of Charlotte, and then the SBC added Charlotte along with the others, it makes ZERO difference to ESPN.

Both conferences were working from the same basic pool (C-USA) for expansion. How the shuffle ended up was of little concern to ESPN.

Again wasn't my point so I'll reiterate; I feel ESPN wants WKU. I say that for a few reasons. Those that I expressed and for others. WKU was apart of several conference makeup scenarios the SBC brought to ESPN to make sure thr pie slices didn't get smaller. Then the MAC also made a tentative move on WKU with ESPN's blessing.

ESPN is a-okay with paying around $2 mil for WKU's fandome's money.

If either the SBC or CUSA were getting $2M per school for media rights the AD's of each school and the conference office would ballyhoo that every chance they got. A JMU official claimed a large increase for them when they joined the SBC but that's total conference revenue.

The benefit currently for CUSA schools to join the SBC is stability but not really much if any revenue increase.

(07-29-2022 12:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Someone on this board did the basketball Sagarin or RPI the last few years. CUSA 4.0 did pretty well. AAC did not take the better basketball schools. Sun Belt was well behind them.

Don't know if this is what you are referring to, but below is a copy and paste from my last update when I was looking at bball NET numbers.

********************************************************************

I did a similar thing for men's bball with CUSA and the SBC and updated it through out the year with NET data from the NCAA site. Below is from my final update.

Likely my last time updating this for this season.

NET data thru 3.12
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_ranking...ties/22483

Current CUSA
UAB 46
North Texas 47
Louisiana Tech 97
Middle Tenn. 104
Western Ky. 125
Fla. Atlantic 131
UTEP 164
Charlotte 188
Old Dominion 203
Rice 217
Marshall 242
FIU 266
UTSA 326
Southern Miss. 341
Average 178

Future CUSA
New Mexico St. 79
Louisiana Tech 97
Middle Tenn. 104
Liberty 119
Western Ky. 125
Jacksonville St. 142
Sam Houston 152
UTEP 164
FIU 266
Average 139

Average comps based on future conference affiliations:
A-10 129
AAC 138
CUSA 139
MVC 151
SBC 202

Average NET variance between the current and future conference membership:
AAC drops <31> spots
CUSA rises 39 spots
SBC drops <4> spots

****************************************************************

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses) with current members and future members. The SBC is the only FBS conference with zero Quad1 wins.

Current AAC
Quad 1 wins - 11
Quad 4 losses - 13

Future AAC
Quad 1 wins - 12
Quad 4 losses - 25

Current CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 5
Quad 4 losses - 32

Future CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 4
Quad 4 losses - 22

Current SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 36

Future SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 41

(07-29-2022 02:09 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 12:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Someone on this board did the basketball Sagarin or RPI the last few years. CUSA 4.0 did pretty well. AAC did not take the better basketball schools. Sun Belt was well behind them.

Don't know if this is what you are referring to, but below is a copy and paste from my last update when I was looking at bball NET numbers.

********************************************************************

I did a similar thing for men's bball with CUSA and the SBC and updated it through out the year with NET data from the NCAA site. Below is from my final update.

Likely my last time updating this for this season.

NET data thru 3.12
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_ranking...ties/22483

Current CUSA
UAB 46
North Texas 47
Louisiana Tech 97
Middle Tenn. 104
Western Ky. 125
Fla. Atlantic 131
UTEP 164
Charlotte 188
Old Dominion 203
Rice 217
Marshall 242
FIU 266
UTSA 326
Southern Miss. 341
Average 178

Future CUSA
New Mexico St. 79
Louisiana Tech 97
Middle Tenn. 104
Liberty 119
Western Ky. 125
Jacksonville St. 142
Sam Houston 152
UTEP 164
FIU 266
Average 139

Average comps based on future conference affiliations:
A-10 129
AAC 138
CUSA 139
MVC 151
SBC 202

Average NET variance between the current and future conference membership:
AAC drops <31> spots
CUSA rises 39 spots
SBC drops <4> spots

****************************************************************

Below shows the number of Quad 1 wins and the number of Quad 4 losses (AKA good wins vs bad losses) with current members and future members. The SBC is the only FBS conference with zero Quad1 wins.

Current AAC
Quad 1 wins - 11
Quad 4 losses - 13

Future AAC
Quad 1 wins - 12
Quad 4 losses - 25

Current CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 5
Quad 4 losses - 32

Future CUSA
Quad 1 wins - 4
Quad 4 losses - 22

Current SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 36

Future SBC
Quad 1 wins - 0
Quad 4 losses - 41

Maybe it was you.

It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

This is how I think it’ll play out:

- Big 12 takes in Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State. They stop with expansion. And aren’t raised further. Memphis and ECU don’t get the call up.
- Sun Belt does well for the next couple of years. AAC money drops during their negotiation and becomes comparable to the Sun Belt.
- The close proximity and travel as well as good competition is attractive to ECU sand they get the invite to the Sun Belt and accept.
- Memphis tries for another year or two to get into the Big 12 or ACC. They could be successful or could not. If they’re not, they accept coming into the Sun Belt if the TV money is better than the AAC. If they are successful, they don’t come and UAB, UNT, or USF could switch to the Sun Belt.

- Honorable Mention: LA Tech, SMU, WKU, and UTSA could all jump over as well possibly.

In any hypothetical, I think the belt should remain patient now. We’re well positioned to ride whatever happens out for a little while.

(07-29-2022 12:12 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  It'll be ECU and USF and eventually we'll have to replace ULM bc they won't be able to meet the financial obligations of FBS so we'll snag UAB. Yup.

Not it! :)

(07-29-2022 02:31 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

Surely you realize that there are only two major sports and all other sports are nice but not as valuable. Saying one conference is significantly better in basketball seems like a reasonable and logical point to make.

(07-29-2022 12:20 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 12:12 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  It'll be ECU and USF and eventually we'll have to replace ULM bc they won't be able to meet the financial obligations of FBS so we'll snag UAB. Yup.

Not going to happen.

Yea it will.

(07-29-2022 03:04 PM)UABGrad Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 12:12 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  It'll be ECU and USF and eventually we'll have to replace ULM bc they won't be able to meet the financial obligations of FBS so we'll snag UAB. Yup.

Not it! :)

Consider yourself lucky you're a part of the conversation. AAC is a sinking ship especially after Memphis and SMU leave.

(07-29-2022 12:12 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  It'll be ECU and USF and eventually we'll have to replace ULM bc they won't be able to meet the financial obligations of FBS so we'll snag UAB. Yup.

Let’s wait and see how UAB does without their all world coach. We’re only a few years removed from them being one of the worst programs in FBS. What happens if they have a few losing seasons in a row and banner wins another championship or two? They could lose all the momentum they built and we already have 2 Alabama schools further away from Tuscaloosa. They do fit geographically though.

A lot of things on a list of about 30 items are going to happen in order for ANY AAC school to jump to the SBC and we are on Item #0. Let's pump the brakes a bit.

(07-29-2022 02:31 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

On the one hand, there are only two revenue sports, so being better at one of them is a thing.

On the other hand, if you're both one-bid leagues, I'm not sure being "better" makes a real difference.

The real comparison is, who took schools from whom.

(07-29-2022 08:36 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  A lot of things on a list of about 30 items are going to happen in order for ANY AAC school to jump to the SBC and we are on Item #0. Let's pump the brakes a bit.

Some fans are getting way too ahead of themselves haha.

(07-29-2022 03:15 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 02:31 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

Surely you realize that there are only two major sports and all other sports are nice but not as valuable. Saying one conference is significantly better in basketball seems like a reasonable and logical point to make.

Saying "there are only two major sports" is nice until you realize that one of them pales in comparison to the other in terms of significance. Making the point that CUSA is better in basketball is like me saying I'm better at chess than Aaron Rodgers. It might be true, but it doesn't actually matter.

(07-29-2022 10:22 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 03:15 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 02:31 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

Surely you realize that there are only two major sports and all other sports are nice but not as valuable. Saying one conference is significantly better in basketball seems like a reasonable and logical point to make.

Saying "there are only two major sports" is nice until you realize that one of them pales in comparison to the other in terms of significance. Making the point that CUSA is better in basketball is like me saying I'm better at chess than Aaron Rodgers. It might be true, but it doesn't actually matter.

It *would* be significant, if CUSA were the A-10 or the American, regularly putting more than one team in the NCAA's.

But of course, CUSA hasn't been a consistent multibid league in a long, long time.

(07-29-2022 10:30 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 10:22 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 03:15 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  

(07-29-2022 02:31 PM)jcohen42 Wrote:  It truly is amazing how every comparison between the SBC and CUSA turns into "But basketball, though!". Great, you have ONE sport where you're appreciably better than the SBC. It's such a lame argument to try to make.

Surely you realize that there are only two major sports and all other sports are nice but not as valuable. Saying one conference is significantly better in basketball seems like a reasonable and logical point to make.

Saying "there are only two major sports" is nice until you realize that one of them pales in comparison to the other in terms of significance. Making the point that CUSA is better in basketball is like me saying I'm better at chess than Aaron Rodgers. It might be true, but it doesn't actually matter.

It *would* be significant, if CUSA were the A-10 or the American, regularly putting more than one team in the NCAA's.

But of course, CUSA hasn't been a consistent multibid league in a long, long time.

True but that 1 bid has at least won a game frequently.

(07-29-2022 08:36 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  A lot of things on a list of about 30 items are going to happen in order for ANY AAC school to jump to the SBC and we are on Item #0. Let's pump the brakes a bit.

Well, every P5 school not currently in the SEC or B10 losing their collective minds right now might be #1 but yeah we’re a ways from that point. I’m not too worried about it, I like the current membership.