Here is a list of theorized moves and when I think we might hear some news about.

ND to the B1G
Status: ND is considering and working with NBC on a new deal if they can stay independent they will
Important date: NBC will likely have potential options ironed out in a month or 2

Pac 12 teams to B1G
Status: B1G wants ND answer first
Important date: see above

Pac 12 teams to the B12
Status: Pac12 recieved a lowball offer from Espn/ no bid from Fox. Thay are taking thier rights to the open market. Important date: Expect bids to take 1 month to 2. All Pac12 teams will wait to see the open market rate before considering B12


B12 teams to the Pac 12
Status: B12 exit fees seem to discourage movement to the Pac12, but should Pac12 get a better deal maybe the revenue would make it worth it.
Important date: see above

Pac12/B12 teams to the ACC
Status: the ACC will likely need to wait on pac12 and b12 schools getting thier media rights bids to leverage a better offer to a best of the rest league built on the ACC. A "loose partnership" is still on the table for a modest pay increase
Important dates: see above 1 to 2 months

MWC schools to Pac12
Status: this option likely means no p5 realignment is possible. I expwxt invites to come out 5 to 6 months from now after all other options are exhausted.

Thoughts on my timing/ expectations?

Seems pretty accurate to me.


But, of course, this post will probably seem laughable in five years. Not because these are bad predictions based on the information we have right now, but because, eh, there always ends up being some unexpected events that nobody predicted ahead of time.

I think the first important date is that when the Big Ten signs its TV deal, it shows that they're stopping expansion as of now. There's very little point in expanding right *after* signing a brand new TV contract. If ND is going to come, the Big Ten wants to be negotiating with the TV networks *with* ND committed because that's how everyone involved (whether the Big Ten or ND) gets maximum value. The fact that the Big Ten seems to be moving along with its new media deals is an indicator that ND isn't coming anytime soon. (To be honest, I think ND can get a lot more than the $75 million figure that was thrown out there, so the TV money gap with the Big Ten/SEC likely will be gone as an issue regarding independence.)

The important thing is how much of ESPN's budget is taken by the B1G. This will have a downstream effect on their final bids with the Pac-12 and if any money is left in the till in 2025 with the Big 12.

I see this as a case where going last may be a negative.

NBC is tied to exclusive programming model, be it Olympics, bike racing, NFL Sunday Night or Notre Dame football. I can't see them angling for anything other than a specific package from the SEC (off the table) or B1G (Friday or Saturday Night). They won't be interested in the Pac-12 or Big 12. But I do see them possibly playing game here , as they have to decide if they want the B1G package and thus pull Notre Dame into that conference or stick with Notre Dame as an independent. They have a lot of leverage with both Notre Dame and the B1G and what they are offered could decide where Notre Dame ends up in 2026. Keep an eye on that.

(07-26-2022 02:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The important thing is how much of ESPN's budget is taken by the B1G. This will have a downstream effect on their final bids with the Pac-12 and if any money is left in the till in 2025 with the Big 12.

I see this as a case where going last may be a negative.

NBC is tied to exclusive programming model, be it Olympics, bike racing, NFL Sunday Night or Notre Dame football. I can't see them angling for anything other than a specific package from the SEC (off the table) or B1G (Friday or Saturday Night). They won't be interested in the Pac-12 or Big 12. But I do see them possibly playing game here , as they have to decide if they want the B1G package and thus pull Notre Dame into that conference or stick with Notre Dame as an independent. They have a lot of leverage with both Notre Dame and the B1G and what they are offered could decide where Notre Dame ends up in 2026. Keep an eye on that.

ESPN will pay more if it makes them money.
What's important is how many time slots they have left.

ESPN & Fox both have 27 B-10 games
B-10 picked up another 13-14 games with UCLA/USC

CBS offered over 300 million to SEC to keep it's 15 game package.
now B-10 can offer 15 to CBS, 27 to ESPN/Fox

Now that the b1g deal is close to finalized. Does the clock start on pac12 open market shopping thier deal? If so October for news on ND and pac12 deals?

(08-09-2022 05:27 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  Now that the b1g deal is close to finalized. Does the clock start on pac12 open market shopping thier deal? If so October for news on ND and pac12 deals?

IMO I believe you are way off on your PAC TV contract timing.

Kliavkoff went to market a year early to start conversation in the hope of calming the nerves of the frightened schools after the announcement of the loss of USC/UCLA. If I was to take a guess, we won't be hearing any concrete numbers about their new TV deal until this time next year. All of this is predicated on the B1G not taking anymore schools, which given the rumors flying around might be a 50/50 shot at this point. We shall see

I think another wild card is how many ND games will NBC be allowed to flex into prime time. If they are playing Clemson or FSU at home, and you don't have OSU vs PSU the same weekend, that's a weekend to flex ND to Saturday night, just as they do LSU Bama one weekend in the year. The ND@Stanford game is perfect for NBC in prime time, but they currently don't have those rights, although it's only a biannual game. But there are many matchups where NBC is going to have a dud when CBS and Fox get the B1G game of the week. I think Oregon and Stanford are very attractive for NBC once ND signs its separate deal. There has to be an addendum somewhere to include Stanford UO WU and ND as a package, and when ND becomes unavailable, Cal, but I think all four have to come in at 2/3rds share to make it worth NBC's while.

(07-26-2022 01:25 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  Here is a list of theorized moves and when I think we might hear some news about.

ND to the B1G
Status: ND is considering and working with NBC on a new deal if they can stay independent they will
Important date: NBC will likely have potential options ironed out in a month or 2

Pac 12 teams to B1G
Status: B1G wants ND answer first
Important date: see above

from The Athletic today re: B1G expansion:

"These decisions did not need to be made and locked in before the Big Ten signs this deal. Multiple people involved in the process told The Athletic that they expect the league’s contracts to include triggers that would either allow for renegotiation in the event of conference membership addition or incrementally and automatically adjust the payouts in such an event."

If reports are accurate, perhaps both NBA and CBS diving headfirst into a ~ $350M agreement is an indication Kevin Warren will be adding some additional valuable properties?

(07-26-2022 01:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think the first important date is that when the Big Ten signs its TV deal, it shows that they're stopping expansion as of now. There's very little point in expanding right *after* signing a brand new TV contract. If ND is going to come, the Big Ten wants to be negotiating with the TV networks *with* ND committed because that's how everyone involved (whether the Big Ten or ND) gets maximum value. The fact that the Big Ten seems to be moving along with its new media deals is an indicator that ND isn't coming anytime soon. (To be honest, I think ND can get a lot more than the $75 million figure that was thrown out there, so the TV money gap with the Big Ten/SEC likely will be gone as an issue regarding independence.)

I think the most important thing after the B1G signs the contract is actually reading the details of the contract. If it lays out provisions for future membership payouts......then watch out cause it won't be over.

(08-09-2022 06:24 PM)otown Wrote:  

(07-26-2022 01:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I think the first important date is that when the Big Ten signs its TV deal, it shows that they're stopping expansion as of now. There's very little point in expanding right *after* signing a brand new TV contract. If ND is going to come, the Big Ten wants to be negotiating with the TV networks *with* ND committed because that's how everyone involved (whether the Big Ten or ND) gets maximum value. The fact that the Big Ten seems to be moving along with its new media deals is an indicator that ND isn't coming anytime soon. (To be honest, I think ND can get a lot more than the $75 million figure that was thrown out there, so the TV money gap with the Big Ten/SEC likely will be gone as an issue regarding independence.)

I think the most important thing after the B1G signs the contract is actually reading the details of the contract. If it lays out provisions for future membership payouts......then watch out cause it won't be over.

Expansion is over already for another 14 years unfortunately.

(07-26-2022 01:25 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  Here is a list of theorized moves and when I think we might hear some news about.

ND to the B1G
Status: ND is considering and working with NBC on a new deal if they can stay independent they will
Important date: NBC will likely have potential options ironed out in a month or 2

(snip)

Thoughts on my timing/ expectations?

Assuming ND wants to do so, before ND can join the B1G, they would have to settle their contracts with the ACC.

And I expect that to be a long, drawn out and expensive process.

It has been 8 months since we thought we'd hear about a pac 10 tv deal or a Notre Dame TV deal in a month or two. Any new thoughts on when the next media deal will actually sign?

Only thing that changed from the original post is that the PAC continues to receive lowball numbers and members continue to try to squeeze 2 pennys out of one penny. The Big 12 signed their contract ahead of the PAC and it included a GOR. Other than that, 8 months later.....still waiting.....

(08-09-2022 05:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 05:27 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  Now that the b1g deal is close to finalized. Does the clock start on pac12 open market shopping thier deal? If so October for news on ND and pac12 deals?

IMO I believe you are way off on your PAC TV contract timing.

Kliavkoff went to market a year early to start conversation in the hope of calming the nerves of the frightened schools after the announcement of the loss of USC/UCLA. If I was to take a guess, we won't be hearing any concrete numbers about their new TV deal until this time next year. All of this is predicated on the B1G not taking anymore schools, which given the rumors flying around might be a 50/50 shot at this point. We shall see

So far, so good. You posted this in August 2022 and we're still awaiting specific numbers in April 2023. The door to the B1G, if not as open as it was, isn't closed and latched.

(04-04-2023 01:20 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 05:37 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(08-09-2022 05:27 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  Now that the b1g deal is close to finalized. Does the clock start on pac12 open market shopping thier deal? If so October for news on ND and pac12 deals?

IMO I believe you are way off on your PAC TV contract timing.

Kliavkoff went to market a year early to start conversation in the hope of calming the nerves of the frightened schools after the announcement of the loss of USC/UCLA. If I was to take a guess, we won't be hearing any concrete numbers about their new TV deal until this time next year. All of this is predicated on the B1G not taking anymore schools, which given the rumors flying around might be a 50/50 shot at this point. We shall see

So far, so good. You posted this in August 2022 and we're still awaiting specific numbers in April 2023. The door to the B1G, if not as open as it was, isn't closed and latched.

Take the wins when you can get them I guess... now that I've said that the PAC will probably announce a TV deal next week

It is funny that this has dragged out so long the PAC12 is no longer going to market early.

(04-04-2023 01:15 PM)otown Wrote:  Only thing that changed from the original post is that the PAC continues to receive lowball numbers and members continue to try to squeeze 2 pennys out of one penny. The Big 12 signed their contract ahead of the PAC and it included a GOR. Other than that, 8 months later.....still waiting.....

The OP predicted 1-2 months. 2 months later,the big 12 was done. ND? Who knows, though there is very strong reason to expect that they’ll be able to remain independent. The Pac? 8 months and they still don’t have a deal that keeps them afloat. Or perhaps they do, but it’s worse than what was available in October and Kliavkoff is trying to save face.

Didnt Wilner say the spread on Pac survival was going down to -3 on April 1? In a few weeks it will be even, and this is coming from one of the most pro-Pac media people in the entire country.

Tick tok, Kliavkoff.