From Saturday Down South:

Finebaum says ND will join Big Ten

I post this not because the idea of ND going to the Big Ten would be shocking news, but Finebaum is an unofficial mouthpiece of ESPN to SEC country specifically. If he's saying unreservedly that he thinks Notre Dame will be Big Ten bound then that's probably what the brass at ESPN genuinely believe will happen.

The question to me is this...what provokes Notre Dame to action? Does the ACC have to be on the brink of dissolution or do they move to just get it over with?

Perhaps the NBC contract will tell the tale. They aren't used to spending big on college sports. Outside of a few niche offerings, they really aren't committed to anything full scale. Of course, ND games could be viewed as niche being that we're talking about one school just a few times a year.

With that said, NBC runs a risk...

If they commit that money to Notre Dame and the ACC dissolves anyway then what sort of schedule does ND have going forward? Not that they won't have some good games, but they would have no scheduling agreement with any conference to make sure they have a full slate. Even in a situation where there's a P3, I don't know that the 3rd conference would be amenable to ND's needs. That 3rd conference would need an abundance of conference games to create value which could squeeze ND out. More than that, this 3rd league wouldn't be on death's door...

Unlike the ACC of years ago, their place in the food chain would be secure and they would have no reason to make any real accommodation for ND. Of course that league would be willing to make a deal, but they wouldn't NEED the deal which is what created the favorable relationship with the ACC

In that scenario, independence could be quite cumbersome. It could simply be easier much less more profitable to go to the Big Ten as opposed to working overtime to maintain a dying tradition.

(07-24-2022 10:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Perhaps the NBC contract will tell the tale. They aren't used to spending big on college sports. Outside of a few niche offerings, they really aren't committed to anything full scale. Of course, ND games could be viewed as niche being that we're talking about one school just a few times a year.

With that said, NBC runs a risk...

If they commit that money to Notre Dame and the ACC dissolves anyway then what sort of schedule does ND have going forward? Not that they won't have some good games, but they would have no scheduling agreement with any conference to make sure they have a full slate. Even in a situation where there's a P3, I don't know that the 3rd conference would be amenable to ND's needs. That 3rd conference would need an abundance of conference games to create value which could squeeze ND out. More than that, this 3rd league wouldn't be on death's door...

Unlike the ACC of years ago, their place in the food chain would be secure and they would have no reason to make any real accommodation for ND. Of course that league would be willing to make a deal, but they wouldn't NEED the deal which is what created the favorable relationship with the ACC

In that scenario, independence could be quite cumbersome. It could simply be easier much less more profitable to go to the Big Ten as opposed to working overtime to maintain a dying tradition.

Great post — and one whose premise I've believed for some time.

Here's a quite different view this month (and post the USC-UCLA announcement) from arguably one of the most celebrated contributors in the history of this message board. Be interesting to revisit both posts "when the dust has settled" as the saying goes.

(07-15-2022 10:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't think a lot of people still understand ND (and I say this as an unabashed Big Ten guy). The entire point of independence for ND is about it being its CORE institutional identity. The Big Ten could add every single one of the schools that is even tangentially attractive to ND and it wouldn't matter. To Domers, independence is nearly on par with the school's identity as the school being Catholic. It's far beyond money, opponents, the NBC contract, etc.

Money isn't going to convince ND on this issue. Opponents aren't going to convince ND on this issue.

Instead, the only thing that will move ND is if its actual alumni base no longer deems independence to be a core institutional identity for the school... and I don't think they're anywhere close to that yet.

Would ND give up being a Catholic school for any amount of money? Of course not - it's goes to very core and soul of that institution. Football independence is basically one step below that here. THAT'S how people need to look at it in order to understand ND's motivations and why the "logic" of joining a league that just happens to have all of their rivals is irrelevant to them.

Interesting that F.T. Tank believes Notre Dame will only leave football independence behind if its "actual alumni base" grants permission for that to happen. Wonder how that process would actually take place?

For now anyway, it seems like the realignment bus in South Bend is being driven by Jack Swarbrick, who is likely conferring with his superiors at the university on this highly sensitive matter.

(07-25-2022 08:55 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 10:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Perhaps the NBC contract will tell the tale. They aren't used to spending big on college sports. Outside of a few niche offerings, they really aren't committed to anything full scale. Of course, ND games could be viewed as niche being that we're talking about one school just a few times a year.

With that said, NBC runs a risk...

If they commit that money to Notre Dame and the ACC dissolves anyway then what sort of schedule does ND have going forward? Not that they won't have some good games, but they would have no scheduling agreement with any conference to make sure they have a full slate. Even in a situation where there's a P3, I don't know that the 3rd conference would be amenable to ND's needs. That 3rd conference would need an abundance of conference games to create value which could squeeze ND out. More than that, this 3rd league wouldn't be on death's door...

Unlike the ACC of years ago, their place in the food chain would be secure and they would have no reason to make any real accommodation for ND. Of course that league would be willing to make a deal, but they wouldn't NEED the deal which is what created the favorable relationship with the ACC

In that scenario, independence could be quite cumbersome. It could simply be easier much less more profitable to go to the Big Ten as opposed to working overtime to maintain a dying tradition.

Great post — and one whose premise I've believed for some time.

Here's a quite different view this month (and post the USC-UCLA announcement) from arguably one of the most celebrated contributors in the history of this message board. Be interesting to revisit both posts "when the dust has settled" as the saying goes.

(07-15-2022 10:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't think a lot of people still understand ND (and I say this as an unabashed Big Ten guy). The entire point of independence for ND is about it being its CORE institutional identity. The Big Ten could add every single one of the schools that is even tangentially attractive to ND and it wouldn't matter. To Domers, independence is nearly on par with the school's identity as the school being Catholic. It's far beyond money, opponents, the NBC contract, etc.

Money isn't going to convince ND on this issue. Opponents aren't going to convince ND on this issue.

Instead, the only thing that will move ND is if its actual alumni base no longer deems independence to be a core institutional identity for the school... and I don't think they're anywhere close to that yet.

Would ND give up being a Catholic school for any amount of money? Of course not - it's goes to very core and soul of that institution. Football independence is basically one step below that here. THAT'S how people need to look at it in order to understand ND's motivations and why the "logic" of joining a league that just happens to have all of their rivals is irrelevant to them.

Interesting that F.T. Tank believes Notre Dame will only leave football independence behind if its "actual alumni base" grants permission for that to happen. Wonder how that process would actually take place?

For now anyway, it seems like the realignment bus in South Bend is being driven by Jack Swarbrick, who is likely conferring with his superiors at the university on this highly sensitive matter.

I'm pretty sure they've made up their minds. Swarbrick is waiting on 2 things.
1. He's waiting to see what if anything happens in the ACC which might let N.D. out on the cheap.
2. He's ascertaining all media offers for final leverage with the Big Ten.

The SCOTUS ruling on NIL and the anticipated ruling on Pay for Play sealed the deal. Cost of travel means minor sports need to stay regional and that means the Big Ten which frankly N.D. sees as the much easier path to the playoffs than the SEC.

He grasps what ACC leadership does not, amateurism is dead, professionalism is here, and even Notre Dame needs to stay prominent on the tube to help enrollment. Swarbrick said it himself, "College football will revolve around one of two orbits, the SEC or the Big Ten.

I suspect FOX and ESPN had some backchannel agreement that Texas and Oklahoma roughly equaled the value of Notre Dame, USC, and UCLA. It's just that none of this can look pre-decided. So, we'll have drama and misleading stories designed to make it look like schools are in play, but in reality, the bait has already been laid to make the lab rats run to the right reward. It's just that we'll be tortured with the dog and pony show, so the results look like they were independently made.

Forty-eight slots for 69 P schools. You bet the rats will run where directed and will be thankful. Meanwhile the real drama will be over who makes the Tweener Conference.

I do think the networks are setting things up regionally and trying to bring back lost rivalries where they can.

Does ND need to jump to the Big Ten?

Financially, they’re trying to keep up with with the P2 via NBC. Yet NBC has never invested heavily in college sports…but ND is giving them the right of first refusal. More likely, ND will need to partner directly with ESPN or Fox. IMO, ESPN and Fox would absolutely pay ND at the P2 rate.

Access to marquee scheduling will be guaranteed so long as you align with ESPN or Fox. Your media partner will facilitate games against their contracted conference properties (e.g., ACC, SEC, B1G).

Access to the playoffs is the biggest concern. Sankey and Swarbrick were aligned in the 6+6 CFP proposal…if the SEC & B1G expand further, then the P2 could breakaway. ND actually needs a P5 or P4 or P3 in order guarantee playoff access. Keeping the current ACC together stabilizes at least a P3 scenario. ND needs a strong ACC to remain independent and may be worried that the ACC brands (FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, Duke, UVa, etc.) are looking for alternatives.

IMO, ND will eventually need to sign with ESPN or Fox (losing media “independence”) but not lose its sacred football flexibility.

(07-25-2022 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 08:55 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 10:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Perhaps the NBC contract will tell the tale. They aren't used to spending big on college sports. Outside of a few niche offerings, they really aren't committed to anything full scale. Of course, ND games could be viewed as niche being that we're talking about one school just a few times a year.

With that said, NBC runs a risk...

If they commit that money to Notre Dame and the ACC dissolves anyway then what sort of schedule does ND have going forward? Not that they won't have some good games, but they would have no scheduling agreement with any conference to make sure they have a full slate. Even in a situation where there's a P3, I don't know that the 3rd conference would be amenable to ND's needs. That 3rd conference would need an abundance of conference games to create value which could squeeze ND out. More than that, this 3rd league wouldn't be on death's door...

Unlike the ACC of years ago, their place in the food chain would be secure and they would have no reason to make any real accommodation for ND. Of course that league would be willing to make a deal, but they wouldn't NEED the deal which is what created the favorable relationship with the ACC

In that scenario, independence could be quite cumbersome. It could simply be easier much less more profitable to go to the Big Ten as opposed to working overtime to maintain a dying tradition.

Great post — and one whose premise I've believed for some time.

Here's a quite different view this month (and post the USC-UCLA announcement) from arguably one of the most celebrated contributors in the history of this message board. Be interesting to revisit both posts "when the dust has settled" as the saying goes.

(07-15-2022 10:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't think a lot of people still understand ND (and I say this as an unabashed Big Ten guy). The entire point of independence for ND is about it being its CORE institutional identity. The Big Ten could add every single one of the schools that is even tangentially attractive to ND and it wouldn't matter. To Domers, independence is nearly on par with the school's identity as the school being Catholic. It's far beyond money, opponents, the NBC contract, etc.

Money isn't going to convince ND on this issue. Opponents aren't going to convince ND on this issue.

Instead, the only thing that will move ND is if its actual alumni base no longer deems independence to be a core institutional identity for the school... and I don't think they're anywhere close to that yet.

Would ND give up being a Catholic school for any amount of money? Of course not - it's goes to very core and soul of that institution. Football independence is basically one step below that here. THAT'S how people need to look at it in order to understand ND's motivations and why the "logic" of joining a league that just happens to have all of their rivals is irrelevant to them.

Interesting that F.T. Tank believes Notre Dame will only leave football independence behind if its "actual alumni base" grants permission for that to happen. Wonder how that process would actually take place?

For now anyway, it seems like the realignment bus in South Bend is being driven by Jack Swarbrick, who is likely conferring with his superiors at the university on this highly sensitive matter.

I'm pretty sure they've made up their minds. Swarbrick is waiting on 2 things.
1. He's waiting to see what if anything happens in the ACC which might let N.D. out on the cheap.
2. He's ascertaining all media offers for final leverage with the Big Ten.

The SCOTUS ruling on NIL and the anticipated ruling on Pay for Play sealed the deal. Cost of travel means minor sports need to stay regional and that means the Big Ten which frankly N.D. sees as the much easier path to the playoffs than the SEC.

He grasps what ACC leadership does not, amateurism is dead, professionalism is here, and even Notre Dame needs to stay prominent on the tube to help enrollment. Swarbrick said it himself, "College football will revolve around one of two orbits, the SEC or the Big Ten.

I suspect FOX and ESPN had some backchannel agreement that Texas and Oklahoma roughly equaled the value of Notre Dame, USC, and UCLA. It's just that none of this can look pre-decided. So, we'll have drama and misleading stories designed to make it look like schools are in play, but in reality, the bait has already been laid to make the lab rats run to the right reward. It's just that we'll be tortured with the dog and pony show, so the results look like they were independently made.

Forty-eight slots for 69 P schools. You bet the rats will run where directed and will be thankful. Meanwhile the real drama will be over who makes the Tweener Conference.

I do think the networks are setting things up regionally and trying to bring back lost rivalries where they can.

The prevailing sentiment in ACC land is to maximize income if Notre Dame attempts to leave.
It won't matter what happens with the Supreme Court or the GOR, the ACC has a contract that says that if Notre Dame were to join a conference before 2036 it has to be the ACC. That is the mega expensive piece to any Notre Dame departure.
Back channel, front channel misdirection aside, Texas, Oklahoma, UCLA and USC had no such contracts that limited their ability to join another conference.

(07-25-2022 10:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 08:55 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 10:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Perhaps the NBC contract will tell the tale. They aren't used to spending big on college sports. Outside of a few niche offerings, they really aren't committed to anything full scale. Of course, ND games could be viewed as niche being that we're talking about one school just a few times a year.

With that said, NBC runs a risk...

If they commit that money to Notre Dame and the ACC dissolves anyway then what sort of schedule does ND have going forward? Not that they won't have some good games, but they would have no scheduling agreement with any conference to make sure they have a full slate. Even in a situation where there's a P3, I don't know that the 3rd conference would be amenable to ND's needs. That 3rd conference would need an abundance of conference games to create value which could squeeze ND out. More than that, this 3rd league wouldn't be on death's door...

Unlike the ACC of years ago, their place in the food chain would be secure and they would have no reason to make any real accommodation for ND. Of course that league would be willing to make a deal, but they wouldn't NEED the deal which is what created the favorable relationship with the ACC

In that scenario, independence could be quite cumbersome. It could simply be easier much less more profitable to go to the Big Ten as opposed to working overtime to maintain a dying tradition.

Great post — and one whose premise I've believed for some time.

Here's a quite different view this month (and post the USC-UCLA announcement) from arguably one of the most celebrated contributors in the history of this message board. Be interesting to revisit both posts "when the dust has settled" as the saying goes.

(07-15-2022 10:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I don't think a lot of people still understand ND (and I say this as an unabashed Big Ten guy). The entire point of independence for ND is about it being its CORE institutional identity. The Big Ten could add every single one of the schools that is even tangentially attractive to ND and it wouldn't matter. To Domers, independence is nearly on par with the school's identity as the school being Catholic. It's far beyond money, opponents, the NBC contract, etc.

Money isn't going to convince ND on this issue. Opponents aren't going to convince ND on this issue.

Instead, the only thing that will move ND is if its actual alumni base no longer deems independence to be a core institutional identity for the school... and I don't think they're anywhere close to that yet.

Would ND give up being a Catholic school for any amount of money? Of course not - it's goes to very core and soul of that institution. Football independence is basically one step below that here. THAT'S how people need to look at it in order to understand ND's motivations and why the "logic" of joining a league that just happens to have all of their rivals is irrelevant to them.

Interesting that F.T. Tank believes Notre Dame will only leave football independence behind if its "actual alumni base" grants permission for that to happen. Wonder how that process would actually take place?

For now anyway, it seems like the realignment bus in South Bend is being driven by Jack Swarbrick, who is likely conferring with his superiors at the university on this highly sensitive matter.

I'm pretty sure they've made up their minds. Swarbrick is waiting on 2 things.
1. He's waiting to see what if anything happens in the ACC which might let N.D. out on the cheap.
2. He's ascertaining all media offers for final leverage with the Big Ten.

The SCOTUS ruling on NIL and the anticipated ruling on Pay for Play sealed the deal. Cost of travel means minor sports need to stay regional and that means the Big Ten which frankly N.D. sees as the much easier path to the playoffs than the SEC.

He grasps what ACC leadership does not, amateurism is dead, professionalism is here, and even Notre Dame needs to stay prominent on the tube to help enrollment. Swarbrick said it himself, "College football will revolve around one of two orbits, the SEC or the Big Ten.

I suspect FOX and ESPN had some backchannel agreement that Texas and Oklahoma roughly equaled the value of Notre Dame, USC, and UCLA. It's just that none of this can look pre-decided. So, we'll have drama and misleading stories designed to make it look like schools are in play, but in reality, the bait has already been laid to make the lab rats run to the right reward. It's just that we'll be tortured with the dog and pony show, so the results look like they were independently made.

Forty-eight slots for 69 P schools. You bet the rats will run where directed and will be thankful. Meanwhile the real drama will be over who makes the Tweener Conference.

I do think the networks are setting things up regionally and trying to bring back lost rivalries where they can.

I think he sees the Big 10 and SEC calling the shots. If NBC matches the Big 10 $$s they stay in the ACC, but I don't think that happens. I think they see at least a $25 million a year TV gap and decide to join the Big 10. All depends on how much NBC will pay.