DawgNBama
the Rush Limbaugh of CSNBBS
Posts: 8,386
Joined: Sep 2002
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I Root For: conservativism/MAGA
Location: US
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RE: Defensive expansion
(08-02-2022 11:32 PM)JRsec Wrote: (08-02-2022 11:15 PM)DawgNBama Wrote: (08-01-2022 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote: (08-01-2022 09:13 PM)ken d Wrote: (07-24-2022 06:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: The last time all this was happening, 10 years ago or so, I theorized that the SEC merging with the Big 12 would be a boon for everyone.
A 24 team league...
That configuration didn't include any ACC schools, but my concept was based on this: negotiating leverage rooted in basic economics...scarcity.
Think about it this way, the NFL has 32 teams and taps fewer markets than that. It's nationwide, however, and is essentially the only game in town when it comes to premier quality football. That has massive leverage despite the fact it has a large number of competitors. Of course, you can pick apart this scenario by examining the market dynamics, but I'm not suggesting a nationwide college football conference would make the same amount of money as the NFL. it's not about that, it's about the fact that unifying content under one roof creates new rules.
So even though a fair number of NFL teams suck in a given year and some fan bases aren't nearly as passionate as others, it doesn't matter. The sheer size and reach of the overall entity creates massive value. That value, in time, creates a better quality product. Think about what the NFL is today compared to just 30 years ago...
Notice this also, every major pro sport organization in this country has roughly the same number of teams. The mostly tap the same markets although there's a little shuffling here and there. Despite the fact that the other leagues are national, it doesn't mean they make as much money as the NFL, but the market dynamics are there for creating quality content and negotiating leverage with the TV partner.
I was always a fan of the SEC and Big 12 merging because I thought they had the most in common and it would have created a massive amount of content that was quality especially when you start playing more games internally. Think about that aspect as well. In the future, these leagues aren't going to be playing G5s and FCS and may even trim away some other "Power" schools from their schedules. They'll play more games internally and that will create a lot of valuable content especially at the T3 level.
As there is greater deregulation, there will be less necessity to maintain traditional concepts of much of anything whether that's schedules or scholarship rules or anything else. The important thing there is that consolidation allows for simpler and more uniform rules...because everyone's under the same roof.
Now I don't know if all the Power conferences will unite one day into one entity...I kind of doubt it...but that doesn't really affect the basic market dynamics of consolidation. A 24 team league has massive value as long as the members are significant in their own home markets. The primary reason for that is actually pretty simple. If ESPN or FOX or anyone else doesn't want to provide good compensation and they don't want to come to the table when appropriate then you just take your ball and go home. If ESPN loses the Big Ten then that sucks, but it's not so bad if there are 4 other Power conferences that can provide value. We're now rapidly reaching a phase where there's fewer competitors in town. We're basically in a space right now where 5 Power conferences don't exist...the legal designations on the NCAA rulebook are not relevant here.
The Power conferences actually hurt each other because in a way, they're competing for the same space...the same TV dollars, the same time slots, and they're pushing and shoving to one-up the other guy. What they should have been thinking about is coalescing their market power to flip the script. The schools should be competing with the networks, not with each other.
Let's say the Big 12 and SEC had merged 10 years ago. That entity would be a behemoth dealing with any network. Try to play hard ball with that conglomeration and you risk losing access to a disproportionate amount of good content. The same principle doesn't work if you're talking about CUSA and the Sun Belt merging...because it's not the premier product in its class. The market dynamics work if scarcity is combined with value. It's not so much about the numbers...it's about corning the market.
This is why I've never had a problem going to 24 or more. As long as we're talking schools that have value in the marketplace, we're doing nothing but helping ourselves by coalescing.
My little pet theory is this...the reason we're seeing networks say certain combinations/additions aren't "valuable" is because they're still in the position of highest leverage. ESPN and FOX and all the rest know darn well that there's ton of schools that have value in the marketplace if they were a part of a conglomeration, but these networks want to delay the influence of the conglomeration as much as possible.
So when a network advises the SEC or Big Ten that they need to go after "these" schools instead of "those over there, it's because they're self-interested. Now to be fair, the networks want the best match-ups. They're not arbitrarily valuing anyone. Their deceit is that they're unwilling to pay for certain additions because if they have to pay for larger leagues then they at least want some control over what those match-ups will be in the aftermath. If they have to spend a lot more money in the future to fund these leagues then they want the best bang for their buck.
For example, I don't believe for a second that Oregon and Washington wouldn't make money for the Big Ten regardless of Notre Dame's inclusion. Think about it, what motivation do these networks have to spend more money than they have to?
The "valuations" these networks offer are purely for their benefit.
Maybe 10 years ago a merger between the SEC and Big 12 would have added value to both. But not today. But the theory remains valid. IMO, the best thing the SEC could do today is merge with the Big Ten. That's also the best thing the Big Ten could do. Throw in the four remaining valuable schools from the PAC and you have a 36 team behemoth that has all the leverage with media partners. I say partners because, like the NFL having multiple partners maximizes the value of this new league.
Keeping the remaining two P5 conferences intact solves a lot of issues this board has been struggling with for the past couple of years, and eliminates concerns about issues the courts or legislatures may have with the changed landscape of college athletics. A merger now with a contract length of about 8 years buys time to smooth the rough edges that landscape may have, and gets everyone closer to the end of the ACC GoR when any additional realignment or consolidation might make financial sense then.
I agree the SEC and B1G should in essence merge, but by scheduling until existing contracts expire. I also agree 36 should be the number and they should do it as a breakaway to monetize hoops. Where we disagree is in that only 2 of the B1G's likely additions would be worthy of inclusion, Oregon and Washington. The honorable acknowledgement from the ACC would be the release of Florida State and Clemson to pursue championships. They know what they want. The rest of your programs are conflicted. Five years would be a reasonable time to let the B12, PAC and remaining ACC sort things out. Then in 5 years those who wanted to join could be considered. Notre Dame would have to be all in. If they want in from the beginning, then Miami could be considered as well
The SEC and B1G will be each becoming less efficient in the current colossal market grab. Work as one and we get things worked out quickly on rules and structure and get officiating and enforcement operational. The payout pie also swells.
The pissing contest in which we are currently engaged will be counterproductive. We both would do much better by a collaborative effort.
But here's why it won't happen. They want to remain attached to the NCAA. The SEC would prefer a breakaway. They will want different rules for NIL and Pay for Play. So, we'll push competing models take more Southern schools than should be necessary and protect our region and pound them with a talent surplus they covet. It won't be good for the game, but they think they can strong arm their viewpoints from an inferior position so submission must be forced. There is a thin line between arrogance and stupidity. The alliance crap crossed the damn line into stupid. Therefore, unless they compromise, which they've shown no willingness to do, and they honor their word, which the alliance revealed in spades cannot be trusted, we both will continue to plow through history and tradition on disparate pathways because that is what two large corporate egos do when utilizing proxies to accomplish their will. The SEC and B1G don't share a like vision, but the antagonism is a scramble by FOX and ESPN to improve their positioning with regards to rights.
It's taken me awhile, but I finally understand the B1G. JR, what you and I are used to letting the games decide who is best. That is what we are used to and grew up with. It's a totally different mindset in the B1G. The closest analogy that I have for the B1G would be a public college version of the Ivy League. I kid not. Just like the Ivy has the academic index, so does the B1G with AAU membership being a requirement for the B1G, even if that requirement winds up biting the B1G in the butt, ala Texas and Oklahoma. Strong athletics are a requirement as well, IMO from what Frank the Tank and others have said.
I know some folks on here were calling Northwestern and Vandy elitist schools, but the Ivy League, the very conference the B1G was modeled after, is more elitist than that, IMHO. Oddly enough, I haven't seen the B1G and the Ivy League working together much or scheduling each other in games either. If I didn't know any better, I'd say that there is a deep rivalry between the two. The Pac-12/10 is to the B1G what the Patriot League is to the Ivy, IMO, a fellow collaborator.
Not to insult the SEC, but how are we in any way like the Ivy League, Do we actually like basketbrawl in winter, Kentucky being the obvious exception??? Do we even have a passing interest in lacrosse??
I spent a good bit of my early life in Big 10 country and am quite familiar, and I did my postgraduate at Emory and am not ashamed of my undergrad education, nor overly impressed with the Ivy League, and certainly not with the Big 10, or ACC, having graded papers of honors grads from all of them. And what I have no use for are cultural apologists! Or for that matter I have no use for Ivy Leaguers who are so proud of their degrees they couldn't hold a job or do work they considered beneath them to support their family. An education is only worth what you make of it, and no work is beneath you when your family is in need. I spent 20 years in non-profit work and helped way too many highly educated formerly well to do flops! That's not to say I haven't met wonderful people from all of those regions and schools. But is to say I'm no respecter of a piece of paper when the guy standing before me holding it is an excuse making jack-ass!
Sounds like the exact opposite of me, lol!! If I had to support my son by flipping hamburgers, I'd do it!°
BTW, IMO, Emory is an awesome school, and I have a deep respect for it.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022 11:42 PM by DawgNBama.)
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