(07-14-2022 07:56 PM)pesik Wrote:  known schedules so far


CINCINNATI

11/16/2022 @ Northern Kentucky
11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI - Maui Invitational
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
12/4/2022 BRYANT
12/10/2022 XAVIER
12/14/2022 MIAMI-OH
TBD @ Texas Southern

Maui Invitational
Participants: Arizona (Pac-12), Arkansas (SEC), Cincinnati (American), Creighton (Big East), Louisville (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), San Diego State (Mountain West), Texas Tech (Big 12)

4 unknown games

EAST CAROLINA

11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL - Gulf Coast Showcase
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/26/2022 @ Old Dominion

Gulf Coast Showcase
Participants (8): Drexel (Colonial), East Carolina (American), FGCU (ASUN), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), Kansas City (Summit), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Toledo (Mid-American), UT Arlington (WAC)

9 unknown games


HOUSTON

11/7/2022 NORTHERN COLORADO
11/11/2022 vs. Saint Joseph's; Annapolis, MD
11/20/2022 @ Oregon
11/29/2022 KENT
11/29/2022 NORFOLK STATE
12/6/2022 NORTH FLORIDA
12/13/2022 NORTH CAROLINA A&T
12/17/2022 @ Virginia
TBD ALABAMA
TBD Rice

1 Unknown - (expected q1 neutral)

MEMPHIS

11/24/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL - ESPN Invitational
11/25/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
11/27/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
12/3/2022 OLE MISS
12/10/2022 vs. Auburn; Atlanta, GA
12/17/2022 TEXAS A&M
TBD @ Alabama
TBD @ Saint Louis

ESPN Invitational
Participants: Florida State (ACC), Memphis (American), Nebraska (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Ole Miss (SEC), Seton Hall (Big East), Siena (Metro Atlantic), Stanford (Pac-12)

5 unknown games

SMU

11/11/2022 @ Dayton
11/15/2022 NEW MEXICO
12/22/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI - Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
12/23/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
12/25/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
TBD ARIZONA STATE
TBD EVANSVILLE

Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Participants: George Washington (Atlantic 10), Hawai’i (Big West, host), Iona (Metro Atlantic), Pepperdine (West Coast), Seattle (WAC), SMU (American), Utah State (Mountain West), Washington State (Pac-12)

6 unknown games

SOUTH FLORIDA

11/7/2022 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
11/11/2022 @ Auburn
11/14/2022 STETSON
11/21/2022 vs. UAB; Daytona Beach, FL
11/22/2022 vs. Georgia/Saint Joseph's; Daytona Beach, FL
12/2/2022 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
12/12/2022 @ Northern Iowa
TBD ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN

5 unknown games

TULANE

11/7/2022 UMBC
11/21/2022 vs. Nevada; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/22/2022 vs. Kansas St/Rhode Island; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; George Town, Grand Cayman (LSU/WKU/Akron/ill st)
11/28/2022 UL-MONROE
11/30/2022 TEXAS A&M
12/10/2022 vs. Buffalo; Atlanta, GA

6 unknown games

TULSA

11/17/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC - Myrtle Beach Invitational
11/18/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
11/20/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
12/3/2022 ORAL ROBERTS

Myrtle Beach Invitational
Participants: Boise State (Mountain West), Charlotte (Conference USA), Colorado (Pac-12), Loyola Chicago (Atlantic 10), Murray State (Missouri Valley), Texas A&M (SEC), Tulsa (American), UMass (Atlantic 10)

9 unknown games

UCF

11/7/2022 UNC ASHEVILLE
11/11/2022 FLORIDA STATE
11/18/2022 vs. Oklahoma State; Nassau, Bahamas
11/20/2022 vs. DePaul/Santa Clara; Nassau, Bahamas
12/11/2022 TARLETON STATE
12/14/2022 @ Ole Miss
12/17/2022 vs. Missouri; Sunrise, FL
TBD MIAMI-FL

5 unknown games

WICHITA STATE

11/7/2022 CENTRAL ARKANSAS
11/12/2022 ALCORN STATE
11/21/2022 vs. Grand Canyon; Kansas City, MO
11/22/2022 vs. Northern Iowa/San Francisco; Kansas City, MO
11/26/2022 TARLETON STATE
11/29/2022 MISSOURI
12/3/2022 @ Kansas State
12/10/2022 LONGWOOD
12/13/2022 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
12/17/2022 OKLAHOMA STATE
12/22/2022 TEXAS SOUTHERN

2 unknown games

TEMPLE

11/7/22: vs. Wagner
11/11/22: vs. Villanova
11/15/22: vs. Vanderbilt
11/18/22: Rutgers (Mohegan Sun Arena, CT)
11/21/22: EMPIRE CLASSIC, BARCLAY'S CENTER, BROOKLYN
11/22/22: EMPIRE CLASSIC, BARCLAY'S CENTER, BROOKLYN
11/27/22: vs. Drexel
11/30/22: @ La Salle
12/3/22: vs. VCU
12/6/22: vs. St. Joseph's
12/10/22: @ Penn
12/17/22: @ Mississippi
12/20/22: vs MD Eastern Shore

EMPIRE CLASSIC TEAMS: Richmond, St. John's , & Syracuse

.

It appears that Memphis has the toughest non-conference schedule, so far, although this is slightly offset by the fact that they have one of the less competitive conference schedules.

Their schedule puts Memphis in a challenging early season situation, considering how many new players they have. However, if they're successful enough in November and December, Memphis may be able to "coast," to a certain extent, the rest of the way into the NCAA tournament.

.

.

Conference schedule:

Temple will play home/away series with every team in the AAC except Wichita State and SMU, with the Owls hosting the Shockers and traveling to SMU.

Based on their barttorvik.com rankings alone, Temple would be favored to go 10-8 in conference games. However, if the Owls can split their series with Memphis, Tulane, and Cincinnati, they could win as many as 13 conference games.

Thus, putting together the projections based on the barttorvik.com rankings and the team's conference schedule matchups, the Owls might be predicted to win somewhere between 19 and 23 regular season games.

.

.

(+) indicates games Temple would be favored to win according to barttorvik.com

11/7/22: vs. (#295^) Wagner (+) Q4
11/11/22: vs. (#15^) Villanova Q1
11/15/22: vs. (#108^) Vanderbilt (+) Q3
11/18/22: (#56^) Rutgers (Mohegan Sun Arena, CT) Q2
11/21/22: TBD (Richmond*/St. John's#/Syracuse~) (Empire Classic, (NYC))
11/22/22: TBD (Richmond*/St. John's#/Syracuse~) (Empire Classic, (NYC))
11/27/22: vs. (#305^) Drexel (+) Q4
11/30/22: @ (#151^) La Salle (+) Q3
12/3/22: vs. (#74^) VCU (+) Q2
12/6/22: vs. (#238^) St. Joseph's (+) Q4
12/10/22: @ (#125^) Penn (+) Q2
12/17/22: @ (#44^) Mississippi Q1
12/20/22: vs (#297^) MD Eastern Shore (+) Q4

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

^barttorvik.com pre-season ranking

*Richmond's pre-season ranking (barttorvik.com): #102 (+) Q3

#St. John's pre-season ranking (barttorvik.com): #47 Q1

~Syracuse's pre-season ranking (barttorvik.com): #84 (+) Q2

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


It's a challenging schedule (5 or 6 top 100 opponents), from the standpoint of pre-season rankings, but with 7 home and 3 away games.

Based on the barttorvik.com rankings alone, Temple would be projected to go 9-4 or 10-3 in their OOC games.

The Owls would be projected to go 0-2 or 0-3 in Q1 games and to go 2-1 or 3-1 in Q2 games, for a projected combined Q1/Q2 record of 3-2, 3-4, 2-3, or 2-4 and a combined Q3/Q4 record of 6-0 or 7-0.

Their best chances to win an early-season Q1 win would be their home game vs. Villanova (first season with their new Head Coach) and their possible Empire Classic tournament game vs. St. John's at the Barclay's Center in Brooklyn.

.

.

..............Home Only:.....Away Only:

UCF:...........SMU..............Tulane

Cincy:.........Tulsa..............WSU

ECU:.........Houston.........Memphis

Houston:......USF...............ECU

Memphis:.....ECU..............Tulsa

USF:..........Tulane...........Houston

SMU:.........Temple.............UCF

Temple:......WSU...............SMU

Tulane:.......UCF.................USF

Tulsa:......Memphis............Cincy

Wichita:.....Cincy..............Temple

https://theamerican.org/news/2022/7/14/m...rings.aspx


.

known schedules so far


CINCINNATI

11/16/2022 @ Northern Kentucky
11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI - Maui Invitational
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
12/4/2022 BRYANT
12/10/2022 XAVIER
12/14/2022 MIAMI-OH
TBD @ Texas Southern

Maui Invitational
Participants: Arizona (Pac-12), Arkansas (SEC), Cincinnati (American), Creighton (Big East), Louisville (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), San Diego State (Mountain West), Texas Tech (Big 12)

4 unknown games

EAST CAROLINA

11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL - Gulf Coast Showcase
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/26/2022 @ Old Dominion

Gulf Coast Showcase
Participants (8): Drexel (Colonial), East Carolina (American), FGCU (ASUN), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), Kansas City (Summit), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Toledo (Mid-American), UT Arlington (WAC)

9 unknown games


HOUSTON

11/7/2022 NORTHERN COLORADO
11/11/2022 vs. Saint Joseph's; Annapolis, MD
11/20/2022 @ Oregon
11/26/2022 KENT
11/29/2022 NORFOLK STATE
12/6/2022 NORTH FLORIDA
12/13/2022 NORTH CAROLINA A&T
12/17/2022 @ Virginia
TBD ALABAMA
TBD Rice

1 Unknown - (expected q1 neutral)

MEMPHIS

11/24/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL - ESPN Invitational
11/25/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
11/27/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
12/3/2022 OLE MISS
12/10/2022 vs. Auburn; Atlanta, GA
12/17/2022 TEXAS A&M
TBD @ Alabama
TBD @ Saint Louis

ESPN Invitational
Participants: Florida State (ACC), Memphis (American), Nebraska (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Ole Miss (SEC), Seton Hall (Big East), Siena (Metro Atlantic), Stanford (Pac-12)

5 unknown games

SMU

11/11/2022 @ Dayton
11/15/2022 NEW MEXICO
12/22/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI - Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
12/23/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
12/25/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
TBD ARIZONA STATE
TBD EVANSVILLE

Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Participants: George Washington (Atlantic 10), Hawai’i (Big West, host), Iona (Metro Atlantic), Pepperdine (West Coast), Seattle (WAC), SMU (American), Utah State (Mountain West), Washington State (Pac-12)

6 unknown games

SOUTH FLORIDA

11/7/2022 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
11/11/2022 @ Auburn
11/14/2022 STETSON
11/21/2022 vs. UAB; Daytona Beach, FL
11/22/2022 vs. Georgia/Saint Joseph's; Daytona Beach, FL
12/2/2022 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
12/12/2022 @ Northern Iowa
TBD ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN

5 unknown games

TULANE

11/7/2022 UMBC
11/21/2022 vs. Nevada; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/22/2022 vs. Kansas St/Rhode Island; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; George Town, Grand Cayman (LSU/WKU/Akron/ill st)
11/28/2022 UL-MONROE
11/30/2022 TEXAS A&M
12/10/2022 vs. Buffalo; Atlanta, GA

6 unknown games

TULSA

11/17/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC - Myrtle Beach Invitational
11/18/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
11/20/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
12/3/2022 ORAL ROBERTS

Myrtle Beach Invitational
Participants: Boise State (Mountain West), Charlotte (Conference USA), Colorado (Pac-12), Loyola Chicago (Atlantic 10), Murray State (Missouri Valley), Texas A&M (SEC), Tulsa (American), UMass (Atlantic 10)

9 unknown games

UCF

11/7/2022 UNC ASHEVILLE
11/11/2022 FLORIDA STATE
11/18/2022 vs. Oklahoma State; Nassau, Bahamas
11/20/2022 vs. DePaul/Santa Clara; Nassau, Bahamas
12/11/2022 TARLETON STATE
12/14/2022 @ Ole Miss
12/17/2022 vs. Missouri; Sunrise, FL
TBD MIAMI-FL

5 unknown games

WICHITA STATE

11/7/2022 CENTRAL ARKANSAS
11/12/2022 ALCORN STATE
11/21/2022 vs. Grand Canyon; Kansas City, MO
11/22/2022 vs. Northern Iowa/San Francisco; Kansas City, MO
11/26/2022 TARLETON STATE
11/29/2022 MISSOURI
12/3/2022 @ Kansas State
12/10/2022 LONGWOOD
12/13/2022 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
12/17/2022 OKLAHOMA STATE
12/22/2022 TEXAS SOUTHERN

2 unknown games

(07-14-2022 07:56 PM)pesik Wrote:  known schedules so far


CINCINNATI

11/16/2022 @ Northern Kentucky
11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI - Maui Invitational
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Lahaina, HI
12/4/2022 BRYANT
12/10/2022 XAVIER
12/14/2022 MIAMI-OH
TBD @ Texas Southern

Maui Invitational
Participants: Arizona (Pac-12), Arkansas (SEC), Cincinnati (American), Creighton (Big East), Louisville (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), San Diego State (Mountain West), Texas Tech (Big 12)

4 unknown games

EAST CAROLINA

11/21/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL - Gulf Coast Showcase
11/22/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; Estero, FL
11/26/2022 @ Old Dominion

Gulf Coast Showcase
Participants (8): Drexel (Colonial), East Carolina (American), FGCU (ASUN), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), Kansas City (Summit), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Toledo (Mid-American), UT Arlington (WAC)

9 unknown games


HOUSTON

11/7/2022 NORTHERN COLORADO
11/11/2022 vs. Saint Joseph's; Annapolis, MD
11/20/2022 @ Oregon
11/29/2022 KENT
11/29/2022 NORFOLK STATE
12/6/2022 NORTH FLORIDA
12/13/2022 NORTH CAROLINA A&T
12/17/2022 @ Virginia
TBD ALABAMA
TBD Rice

1 Unknown - (expected q1 neutral)

MEMPHIS

11/24/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL - ESPN Invitational
11/25/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
11/27/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
12/3/2022 OLE MISS
12/10/2022 vs. Auburn; Atlanta, GA
12/17/2022 TEXAS A&M
TBD @ Alabama
TBD @ Saint Louis

ESPN Invitational
Participants: Florida State (ACC), Memphis (American), Nebraska (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Ole Miss (SEC), Seton Hall (Big East), Siena (Metro Atlantic), Stanford (Pac-12)

5 unknown games

SMU

11/11/2022 @ Dayton
11/15/2022 NEW MEXICO
12/22/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI - Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
12/23/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
12/25/2022 vs. TBD; Honolulu, HI
TBD ARIZONA STATE
TBD EVANSVILLE

Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Participants: George Washington (Atlantic 10), Hawai’i (Big West, host), Iona (Metro Atlantic), Pepperdine (West Coast), Seattle (WAC), SMU (American), Utah State (Mountain West), Washington State (Pac-12)

6 unknown games

SOUTH FLORIDA

11/7/2022 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
11/11/2022 @ Auburn
11/14/2022 STETSON
11/21/2022 vs. UAB; Daytona Beach, FL
11/22/2022 vs. Georgia/Saint Joseph's; Daytona Beach, FL
12/2/2022 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
12/12/2022 @ Northern Iowa
TBD ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN

5 unknown games

TULANE

11/7/2022 UMBC
11/21/2022 vs. Nevada; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/22/2022 vs. Kansas St/Rhode Island; George Town, Grand Cayman
11/23/2022 vs. TBD; George Town, Grand Cayman (LSU/WKU/Akron/ill st)
11/28/2022 UL-MONROE
11/30/2022 TEXAS A&M
12/10/2022 vs. Buffalo; Atlanta, GA

6 unknown games

TULSA

11/17/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC - Myrtle Beach Invitational
11/18/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
11/20/2022 vs. TBD; Conway, SC
12/3/2022 ORAL ROBERTS

Myrtle Beach Invitational
Participants: Boise State (Mountain West), Charlotte (Conference USA), Colorado (Pac-12), Loyola Chicago (Atlantic 10), Murray State (Missouri Valley), Texas A&M (SEC), Tulsa (American), UMass (Atlantic 10)

9 unknown games

UCF

11/7/2022 UNC ASHEVILLE
11/11/2022 FLORIDA STATE
11/18/2022 vs. Oklahoma State; Nassau, Bahamas
11/20/2022 vs. DePaul/Santa Clara; Nassau, Bahamas
12/11/2022 TARLETON STATE
12/14/2022 @ Ole Miss
12/17/2022 vs. Missouri; Sunrise, FL
TBD MIAMI-FL

5 unknown games

WICHITA STATE

11/7/2022 CENTRAL ARKANSAS
11/12/2022 ALCORN STATE
11/21/2022 vs. Grand Canyon; Kansas City, MO
11/22/2022 vs. Northern Iowa/San Francisco; Kansas City, MO
11/26/2022 TARLETON STATE
11/29/2022 MISSOURI
12/3/2022 @ Kansas State
12/10/2022 LONGWOOD
12/13/2022 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
12/17/2022 OKLAHOMA STATE
12/22/2022 TEXAS SOUTHERN

2 unknown games

TEMPLE

11/7/22: vs. Wagner
11/11/22: vs. Villanova
11/15/22: vs. Vanderbilt
11/18/22: Rutgers (Mohegan Sun Arena, CT)
11/21/22: EMPIRE CLASSIC, BARCLAY'S CENTER, BROOKLYN
11/22/22: EMPIRE CLASSIC, BARCLAY'S CENTER, BROOKLYN
11/27/22: vs. Drexel
11/30/22: @ La Salle
12/3/22: vs. VCU
12/6/22: vs. St. Joseph's
12/10/22: @ Penn
12/17/22: @ Mississippi
12/20/22: vs MD Eastern Shore

EMPIRE CLASSIC TEAMS: Richmond, St. John's , & Syracuse

.

It appears that Memphis has the toughest non-conference and overall regular season schedule, so far.

.

(07-14-2022 05:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  It appears that Memphis has the toughest non-conference schedule, so far, although this is slightly offset by the fact that they have one of the less competitive conference schedules.

Their schedule puts Memphis in a challenging early season situation, considering how many new players they have. However, if they're successful enough in November and December, Memphis may be able to "coast," to a certain extent, the rest of the way into the NCAA tournament.

How do you figure that? We play every team twice, except ECU and Tulsa, arguably the 2 worst teams in the league. Rothstein has Tulsa #10 and ECU #11. That translates to the toughest schedule in my book, although all schedules are within 2 games of each other, just by the nature of the schedule composition.

(07-15-2022 12:04 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-14-2022 05:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  It appears that Memphis has the toughest non-conference schedule, so far, although this is slightly offset by the fact that they have one of the less competitive conference schedules....

We play every team twice, except ECU and Tulsa, arguably the 2 worst teams in the league.

You're right. I have rechecked the source of the information, and verified your report.

https://theamerican.org/news/2022/7/14/m...rings.aspx


It looks like Memphis is going to have the toughest schedule in the conference this year. Hopefully, it will work out well for them.

.

.

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

(07-15-2022 12:04 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-14-2022 05:57 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  It appears that Memphis has the toughest non-conference schedule, so far, although this is slightly offset by the fact that they have one of the less competitive conference schedules.

Their schedule puts Memphis in a challenging early season situation, considering how many new players they have. However, if they're successful enough in November and December, Memphis may be able to "coast," to a certain extent, the rest of the way into the NCAA tournament.

How do you figure that? We play every team twice, except ECU and Tulsa, arguably the 2 worst teams in the league. Rothstein has Tulsa #10 and ECU #11. That translates to the toughest schedule in my book, although all schedules are within 2 games of each other, just by the nature of the schedule composition.

The biggest programs with the most historical success always play each other twice a year. The worst programs always play the best teams once. It's always been that way in the AAC. Ain't no way Memphis is only playing Houston once in Houston. Especially after last year.



That would be insane for the conference.

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

I remember one year WSU played the four worst teams in the conference 8 games. Memphis played those four teams 5 games. Memphis played the top four teams 8 games and Hitachi played those teams 5 or 6 times. I forget the exact amount. Memphis has never played a soft schedule in the AAC. Why...................?????????

Memphis is the biggest basketball draw in the conference by a mile. Nobody in the AAC outdraws Memphis. TV, home attendance....take your pick. We're the kings of the conference when it comes to basketball.

We're unlike anyone else in the AAC when it comes to attendance and TV viewership. I don't think anyone else is even close. Maybe WSU/UC.

I'm not positive, but I don't think the schedule is based on history. I think it is based on team projections for order of finish in the coming season.

The top 2 teams miss the bottom 2 once each, and so on.

The theory is that the top teams have a better NET (formerly RPI) by playing each other more and the lesser teams less, and it helps their SOS, since the top teams rarely lose to the bottom teams, anyway.

As you get closer to the middle teams, that changes of course, as the likelihood of losses to anybody increases, but that's the theory as I understand it.

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

depends on the situation of the team and the goals of the team.. for example usf's schedule is perfect for its situation but a terrible schedule for a team trying to make the tournament, or houston is an amazing schedule for making the tournament but not great for a team trying to get the 1 seed

memphis schedule is borderline foolish, the worst noncon they have of their known 8 is ole miss, who beat them last year, it is strategically dumb to have that hard a schedule on such a rebuild

for just "making the tournament" ucf (assuming the rest are buy games) and houston are the best schedules, ironically ucf might not be good enough to make the tournament and scheduled too hard, and houston might be weak for its goals

temple schedule is also really good, with the only complaint being the home and away doesnt have any guaranteed q1 (vill switching coaches might not be top 30).. temple is the closest to "team goals matches the schedule"

cincy has 4 unknown, from miller track record theyll probably be buy games.1 monster MTE/xavier and rest not great seems to be his MO

Tulane likely need 2 great games to get to solid, 1 to atleast get to passable , smu fits, its weak which might be beneficial for a rebuilding team but good enough that if they magically turned out great theyd still have a small shot for bid. one more decent game wouldnt hurt

Wichita according to their coach their goal is to make the ncaa tournament (thinks they'll be better than last year), their schedule is really bad for that, its not only weak, its extremely unfavorable in home and away for net games .

usf is great for a rebuilding team, tulsa's will be terrible but thats fine for a projected bottom team, ECU's will be interesting when the full schedule comes out, their new coach loves hard schedules is open to being a buy game to get that

(07-16-2022 01:32 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

depends on the situation of the team and the goals of the team.. for example usf's schedule is perfect for its situation but a terrible schedule for a team trying to make the tournament, or houston is an amazing schedule for making the tournament but not great for a team trying to get the 1 seed

memphis schedule is borderline foolish, the worst noncon they have of their known 8 is ole miss, who beat them last year, it is strategically dumb to have that hard a schedule on such a rebuild

for just "making the tournament" ucf (assuming the rest are buy games) and houston are the best schedules, ironically ucf might not be good enough to make the tournament and scheduled too hard, and houston might be weak for its goals

temple schedule is also really good, with the only complaint being the home and away doesnt have any guaranteed q1 (vill switching coaches might not be top 30).. temple is the closest to "team goals matches the schedule"

cincy has 4 unknown, from miller track record theyll probably be buy games.1 monster MTE/xavier and rest not great seems to be his MO

Tulane likely need 2 great games to get to solid, 1 to atleast get to passable , smu fits, its weak which might be beneficial for a rebuilding team but good enough that if they magically turned out great theyd still have a small shot for bid. one more decent game wouldnt hurt

Wichita according to their coach ther goal is to make the tournament (thins they'll be better than alst year), their schedule is really bad for that, its not only weak, its extremely unfavorable in home and aways for net games .

usf is great for a rebuilding team, tulsa's will be terrible but thats fine for a projected bottom team, ECU's will be interesting when the full schedule comes out, their new coach loves hard schedules is open to being a buy game to get that

Memphis isn't "borderline foolish" when there are 5 games left to schedule.

(07-16-2022 04:36 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis isn't "borderline foolish" when there are 5 games left to schedule.

yes and those 5 games could be buy games at it still would be foolish... 5 unknown is a good excuse for too weak, not too hard

assuming you arent paired with siena in the MTE rd1, that is 8 NIT caliber or better and 5 buy games .. the current projected worst of your known schedule, ole miss, beat you last year

note teams in the aac trying to make the tournament need immaculate records, you arent making the tournament from the current aac with 10 losses

this is a schedule of a team trying to get a 1 seed, that is not memphis situation this year .. you have thrown together roster, that on paper looks to be on the edge of just being a tournament team in general. this team needed a strategic schedule (especially when memphis doesnt secret scrimmages to prep)..

based on "preseason projections" of your schedule, this will be the hardest noncon schedule youve played under penny, with his 2nd to worst on paper roster. (2nd to year 1).

also knowing penny gut feeling is the buy games are going to include atleast 2 super mid majors like WKU and Murray State

(07-16-2022 02:40 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

I remember one year WSU played the four worst teams in the conference 8 games. Memphis played those four teams 5 games. Memphis played the top four teams 8 games and Hitachi played those teams 5 or 6 times. I forget the exact amount. Memphis has never played a soft schedule in the AAC. Why...................?????????

Memphis is the biggest basketball draw in the conference by a mile. Nobody in the AAC outdraws Memphis. TV, home attendance....take your pick. We're the kings of the conference when it comes to basketball.

We're unlike anyone else in the AAC when it comes to attendance and TV viewership. I don't think anyone else is even close. Maybe WSU/UC.

Memphis is the king of a basketball conference it has never won?

(07-16-2022 02:22 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  The biggest programs with the most historical success always play each other twice a year. The worst programs always play the best teams once. It's always been that way in the AAC. Ain't no way Memphis is only playing Houston once in Houston. Especially after last year.

That would be insane for the conference.

My statement that Memphis had an easy conference schedule was based on incorrect information. Actually, Memphis has the toughest overall schedule - - by far - - at this point, although not all AAC schools' OOC schedules have been announced.

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(07-16-2022 05:41 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 02:40 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

I remember one year WSU played the four worst teams in the conference 8 games. Memphis played those four teams 5 games. Memphis played the top four teams 8 games and Hitachi played those teams 5 or 6 times. I forget the exact amount. Memphis has never played a soft schedule in the AAC. Why...................?????????

Memphis is the biggest basketball draw in the conference by a mile. Nobody in the AAC outdraws Memphis. TV, home attendance....take your pick. We're the kings of the conference when it comes to basketball.

We're unlike anyone else in the AAC when it comes to attendance and TV viewership. I don't think anyone else is even close. Maybe WSU/UC.

Memphis is the king of a basketball conference it has never won?

Yep...It generates the most revenue.........Period It's almost always in the top ten in the country in attendance. Who has better viewership in the AAC than Memphis? Bonus question...Who has the most victories in football since 2014 in the AAC?

(07-16-2022 01:32 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 12:19 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

Question: Do the AAC schools with the toughest schedules have a better or worse chance of making their way into the NCAA tournament?

.

depends on the situation of the team and the goals of the team.. for example usf's schedule is perfect for its situation but a terrible schedule for a team trying to make the tournament, or houston is an amazing schedule for making the tournament but not great for a team trying to get the 1 seed

memphis schedule is borderline foolish, the worst noncon they have of their known 8 is ole miss, who beat them last year, it is strategically dumb to have that hard a schedule on such a rebuild

for just "making the tournament" ucf (assuming the rest are buy games) and houston are the best schedules, ironically ucf might not be good enough to make the tournament and scheduled too hard, and houston might be weak for its goals

temple schedule is also really good, with the only complaint being the home and away doesnt have any guaranteed q1 (vill switching coaches might not be top 30).. temple is the closest to "team goals matches the schedule"

cincy has 4 unknown, from miller track record theyll probably be buy games.1 monster MTE/xavier and rest not great seems to be his MO

Tulane likely need 2 great games to get to solid, 1 to atleast get to passable , smu fits, its weak which might be beneficial for a rebuilding team but good enough that if they magically turned out great theyd still have a small shot for bid. one more decent game wouldnt hurt

Wichita according to their coach their goal is to make the ncaa tournament (thinks they'll be better than last year), their schedule is really bad for that, its not only weak, its extremely unfavorable in home and away for net games .

usf is great for a rebuilding team, tulsa's will be terrible but thats fine for a projected bottom team, ECU's will be interesting when the full schedule comes out, their new coach loves hard schedules is open to being a buy game to get that

That's a very interesting analysis.

With regard to Memphis's schedule, even if the rest of their OOC games are scheduled vs. cupcakes, they have a pretty tough OOC schedule, with as many as 8 games vs. potential or likely NIT or NCAA tournament teams.

MEMPHIS (#36) (barttorvik.com rankings)

11/24/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL - ESPN Invitational
11/25/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
11/27/2022 vs. TBD; Kissimmee, FL
12/3/2022 OLE MISS (#44) (Q2)
12/10/2022 vs. Auburn; Atlanta, GA (#18) (Q1)
12/17/2022 TEXAS A&M (#19) (Q1)
TBD @ Alabama (#37) (Q1)
TBD @ Saint Louis (#41) (Q2)

ESPN Invitational
Participants:
Florida State (ACC) (#73) (Q2)
Nebraska (Big Ten) (#91) (Q2)
Oklahoma (Big 12) (#31) (Q1)
Ole Miss (SEC) (#44) (Q1)
Seton Hall (Big East) (#55) (Q2)
Siena (Metro Atlantic) (#326) (Q4)
Stanford (Pac-12) (#39) (Q1)

OOC schedule: 3 to 5 Q1 and 2 to 4 Q2 OOC games


Regular season Q1 and Q2 games:

Houston (#6) (Home: Q1; Away Q1)
Tulane (#42) (Home: Q2; Away Q1)
Cincinnati (#52) (Home: Q2; Away Q1)
Temple (#63) (Home: Q2; Away Q1)
UCF (#99) (Home: Q3; Away Q2)

AAC schedule: 5 Q1 and 4 Q2 games

Overall Memphis Schedule: 8 to 10 Q1 and 6 to 8 Q2 games.

With this schedule, I would estimate that Memphis will probably go something like 8-5 in OOC play and that they'll win 13 conference games (splitting with Houston, Tulane, Temple, Cincy, and losing to one other AAC team), to wind up the season with ~21 wins, but with a relatively high NET rank, due to the strength of their schedule.

If they finish the regular season with a 21-10 record, with a NET of 35-40 and a Q1/Q2 record something like (4-4) (5-2), that will be good enough to get them into the NCAA tournament with something like a (9) or (10) seed.

.

(07-16-2022 05:17 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-16-2022 04:36 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Memphis isn't "borderline foolish" when there are 5 games left to schedule.

yes and those 5 games could be buy games at it still would be foolish... 5 unknown is a good excuse for too weak, not too hard

assuming you arent paired with siena in the MTE rd1, that is 8 NIT caliber or better and 5 buy games .. the current projected worst of your known schedule, ole miss, beat you last year

note teams in the aac trying to make the tournament need immaculate records, you arent making the tournament from the current aac with 10 losses

this is a schedule of a team trying to get a 1 seed, that is not memphis situation this year .. you have thrown together roster, that on paper looks to be on the edge of just being a tournament team in general. this team needed a strategic schedule (especially when memphis doesnt secret scrimmages to prep)..

based on "preseason projections" of your schedule, this will be the hardest noncon schedule youve played under penny, with his 2nd to worst on paper roster. (2nd to year 1).

also knowing penny gut feeling is the buy games are going to include atleast 2 super mid majors like WKU and Murray State