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Just Spitballen Here
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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Post: #1
Just Spitballen Here
So....after reading all the various opinions on the boards on what might, or might not, occur as conference realignment moves along I decided to summarize what I feel are the basic odds of actually happening for the Tigers.

Note 1: This is just a personal opinion that you should not take personally. If my opinion differs from your very own, against all odds, do try to be civil. Wouldn't that be refreshing?

1) The Tigers get invited to the Big 12: 15% possibility. Occurs only if the PAC steals some Big 12 folks. If the PAC swipes a couple of 12 schools the odds of the Tigers joining the 12 increases substantially to almost 71.8%.

2) The Tigers get invited to the ACC: 5% possibility. Occurs only if the ACC is decimated by another conference. If another of those really mean conferences steal a couple of ACC schools then the odds here soar to slightly above 7.35%

3) The Tigers stay right where they are: 60% possibility. For this to occur all that has to happen is that realignment is done for now. If alignment is actually done then these odds increase to 97.13%.

4) The Tigers join a brand new Best of the Rest Conference: 20% possibility. All that has to happen for this to occur is SDSU and one other MWC school being invited to join the PAC - leaving perhaps Boise, Air Force, and/or Colorado St hanging. Or something like that.

Note 2) I cannot defend these odds primarily because I just thunk them up in my head and fully recognize that your personal odds may be entirely different, albeit erroneously so; however, I retain the right to adjust, change and further alter these odds dependent entirely upon uncertain future events.
07-13-2022 01:36 PM
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TIGERCITY Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
A dream but the big 12 is able to convince only three Pac-12 teams come over say Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. To make 4 the big 12 invites Memphis
07-13-2022 01:41 PM
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Claw Online
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Post: #3
RE: Just Spitballen Here
I think the Big XII odds are slightly higher. If nothing else happens to the Big XII I think they add 2 after Texas and Oklahoma actually exit.
07-13-2022 01:44 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 01:41 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  A dream but the big 12 is able to convince only three Pac-12 teams come over say Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. To make 4 the big 12 invites Memphis

TigerCity:

I ran that scenario through my soon-to-be-patented Odds Projector Device and they came out at .0031%. Beautiful dream though.

All the Best,
07-13-2022 01:46 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
Claw: You've convinced me and I have adjusted the odds for the Tigers going to the 12 up to 17.7%.

All the Best,
07-13-2022 01:48 PM
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MtownTigers916 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
Odds are better at this point of getting in the ACC than the Big 12. Honestly probably better odds of getting in the PAC than the Big XII
07-13-2022 01:59 PM
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MtownTigers916 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
There will be movement, though. We will end up somewhere in the chain of dominoes. With as much doom and gloom talk as there is, there will also be a lot of opportunity. We have much more to gain and much less to lose than a lot of other schools.

I also think there will be an access slot for the G5. If we are left out, we could still be the big dogs of the rest and remain nationally relevant (albeit with less money) than say UCF, Cincy, or Houston, who could very easily be in the lower half of their conference.

All this to say I think we are currently at our bleakest point and have a lot to gain
07-13-2022 02:10 PM
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SouthernBoiNOLA Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Just Spitballen Here
My hope is that the PAC stays intact and adds Boise ( I know the other schools would have to hold their academic noses to pick Boise) and SDSU. Big12 then would still need teams and us, Col St, and SMU would be at the top of the list. Also hope that the ACC gets nervous and proactively tries to expand before the GOR is up. They know as soon as the GOR is up or someone pierces the veil, then Clemson and FSU (and probably UNC) are gone.
07-13-2022 02:11 PM
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Tiger46 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 01:41 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  A dream but the big 12 is able to convince only three Pac-12 teams come over say Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. To make 4 the big 12 invites Memphis

In that scenario they may take Boise to stay West.

Still need to plug that hole that Memphis can fill in the East.
07-13-2022 02:49 PM
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dcg141 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
Playing the mighty UNCC on a Thursday night on ESPN 3 in front of 20,000....90%
07-13-2022 03:08 PM
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hk25 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
I believe your analysis is only taking the next 2-3 years into consideration & given that I agree with most of your odds. I think our best odds to move come when ACC top schools are poached & their GOR are making that a long shot in the short term at the moment.

I am hoping Silverfield teams turn the corner this year & starts a 3 year run like his predecessor had to finish his time here & same with Penny, hoping he can pull a Cal and dominate a newly weakened league similar to Cal’s last few years here.

Then we should be primed with both on field success & upgraded facilities for the next realignment wave when the ACC blue bloods move up.

In the meantime I will continue to renew my season tickets & support the team regardless of how everything else plays out.
07-13-2022 03:31 PM
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hk25 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 03:08 PM)dcg141 Wrote:  Playing the mighty UNCC on a Thursday night on ESPN 3 in front of 20,000....90%

If it’s Thursday it will be the Deuce, not 3….but point taken.
07-13-2022 03:34 PM
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dcg141 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 03:34 PM)hk25 Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 03:08 PM)dcg141 Wrote:  Playing the mighty UNCC on a Thursday night on ESPN 3 in front of 20,000....90%

If it’s Thursday it will be the Deuce, not 3….but point taken.

Whatever C-USA’s current slot is will be ours.
07-13-2022 05:57 PM
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Alanda Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 05:57 PM)dcg141 Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 03:34 PM)hk25 Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 03:08 PM)dcg141 Wrote:  Playing the mighty UNCC on a Thursday night on ESPN 3 in front of 20,000....90%

If it’s Thursday it will be the Deuce, not 3….but point taken.

Whatever C-USA’s current slot is will be ours.

The Ocho?
07-13-2022 07:42 PM
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cmt Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
Because I believe that the ACC will lose teams (at least UNC and Clemson to the SEC, maybe FSU and/or Virginia/Miami) and the PAC will steal from the B12 (Prolly Texas Tech and OK State, maybe KState and TCU) instead of the other way around, and to the ACC (WVU), I put our chances of joining the ACC at 62% (ACC adds Memphis and WVU) and of joining the B12 at 34%.
07-13-2022 07:49 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
CMT - thanks for your input: I have increased the odds of us being invited to the ACC to 10% and reduced the odds of us joining a Best of the Rest conference to 15%.

All the Best,
(This post was last modified: 07-13-2022 09:22 PM by RockyMTNTiger.)
07-13-2022 09:22 PM
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SouthernMSTiger Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 07:49 PM)cmt Wrote:  Because I believe that the ACC will lose teams (at least UNC and Clemson to the SEC, maybe FSU and/or Virginia/Miami) and the PAC will steal from the B12 (Prolly Texas Tech and OK State, maybe KState and TCU) instead of the other way around, and to the ACC (WVU), I put our chances of joining the ACC at 62% (ACC adds Memphis and WVU) and of joining the B12 at 34%.

62%? 34%? Why, add those together and we have a 96% of moving’ on up! Time to celebrate.
07-13-2022 09:36 PM
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AlonsoWDC Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 03:08 PM)dcg141 Wrote:  Playing the mighty UNCC on a Thursday night on ESPN 3 in front of 20,000....90%

Saturday night, maybe.

No way we ever play on ESPN3 on a Thursday night.
07-13-2022 10:41 PM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
Our best hope is for the PAC 12 to replace USC/UCLA with 2 Big 12 teams like Oklahoma State & Texas Tech.
07-14-2022 05:23 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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RE: Just Spitballen Here
ACC will get raided. Why wouldn't they? They are in prime location for both the SEC and the B1G. And they have schools that both want. When they get raided, what happens?

I think the odds of us ending up in a better situation than the current outlook (the new AAC) is 91.57%. If nothing else, we will band together with the best of the rest who still want to try to compete with the P5. Once the dust settles with the P5, there is no reason the G5 won't go through something similar.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2022 11:46 AM by Tiger87.)
07-14-2022 11:42 AM
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