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Just Spitballen Here
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 11:42 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  ACC will get raided. Why wouldn't they? They are in prime location for both the SEC and the B1G. And they have schools that both want. When they get raided, what happens?

I think the odds of us ending up in a better situation than the current outlook (the new AAC) is 91.57%. If nothing else, we will band together with the best of the rest who still want to try to compete with the P5. Once the dust settles with the P5, there is no reason the G5 won't go through something similar.

There are a lot of really good football programs that aren't going to be in the $EC or the Big Ten. They might not get anywhere near the money, but they will still be in a good conference, will still get very good money, and they will be in the playoff.
07-14-2022 12:46 PM
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slktigers Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 12:46 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 11:42 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  ACC will get raided. Why wouldn't they? They are in prime location for both the SEC and the B1G. And they have schools that both want. When they get raided, what happens?

I think the odds of us ending up in a better situation than the current outlook (the new AAC) is 91.57%. If nothing else, we will band together with the best of the rest who still want to try to compete with the P5. Once the dust settles with the P5, there is no reason the G5 won't go through something similar.

There are a lot of really good football programs that aren't going to be in the $EC or the Big Ten. They might not get anywhere near the money, but they will still be in a good conference, will still get very good money, and they will be in the playoff.

In A playoff. Not The playoff.
07-14-2022 12:51 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Just Spitballen Here
For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.
07-14-2022 02:46 PM
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gusrob Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.

Instead of P6, we dub our new conference "Tier 2.5?"
07-14-2022 03:33 PM
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ncrdbl1 Online
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Post: #25
RE: Just Spitballen Here
Can't understand the Big XII media expecting a significant increase in TV revenue compared to Pac 12.

With the new alignment the PAC 12 still has 5 of the top 20 TV markets, while the Big XII has only 2 and SEC teams have the most support in both those markets.

UH and TCU are basically red headed step kids in their own home town to UT and aTm.

The Big XII realistically doesn't control any top 20 TV markets.
07-14-2022 09:24 PM
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ncrdbl1 Online
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Post: #26
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.


If not for TV market I would consider replacing Temple with Army.
07-14-2022 09:31 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 09:31 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.


If not for TV market I would consider replacing Temple with Army.

Make it 16. Add Army and Nevada.
07-15-2022 08:02 AM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 03:33 PM)gusrob Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.

Instead of P6, we dub our new conference "Tier 2.5?"

We could go with: WE ARE 2.5!

Or maybe go the other way: WE Don't Need No Stinkn TIERS!

We probably need a marketing guru to nail it down.
07-15-2022 11:34 AM
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aardWolf Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-15-2022 11:34 AM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 03:33 PM)gusrob Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.

Instead of P6, we dub our new conference "Tier 2.5?"

We could go with: WE ARE 2.5!

Or maybe go the other way: WE Don't Need No Stinkn TIERS!

We probably need a marketing guru to nail it down.

Code:
T I   E R S
    G
07-15-2022 12:19 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 01:36 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  So....after reading all the various opinions on the boards on what might, or might not, occur as conference realignment moves along I decided to summarize what I feel are the basic odds of actually happening for the Tigers.

Note 1: This is just a personal opinion that you should not take personally. If my opinion differs from your very own, against all odds, do try to be civil. Wouldn't that be refreshing?

1) The Tigers get invited to the Big 12: 15% possibility. Occurs only if the PAC steals some Big 12 folks. If the PAC swipes a couple of 12 schools the odds of the Tigers joining the 12 increases substantially to almost 71.8%.

2) The Tigers get invited to the ACC: 5% possibility. Occurs only if the ACC is decimated by another conference. If another of those really mean conferences steal a couple of ACC schools then the odds here soar to slightly above 7.35%

3) The Tigers stay right where they are: 60% possibility. For this to occur all that has to happen is that realignment is done for now. If alignment is actually done then these odds increase to 97.13%.

4) The Tigers join a brand new Best of the Rest Conference: 20% possibility. All that has to happen for this to occur is SDSU and one other MWC school being invited to join the PAC - leaving perhaps Boise, Air Force, and/or Colorado St hanging. Or something like that.

Note 2) I cannot defend these odds primarily because I just thunk them up in my head and fully recognize that your personal odds may be entirely different, albeit erroneously so; however, I retain the right to adjust, change and further alter these odds dependent entirely upon uncertain future events.

I put the odds of a B12 invite currently at approx 5%. Clearly the B-12 is concentrating their expansion efforts on attracting AZ, ASU, CO & Utah. It appears those schools are waiting on clarity of the value of the next TV contracts post USC/UCLA & for the B12 post UT/OU. So Memphis will get no consideration until the first expansion preferences of the B12 are decided. Complicating our hope for a B-12 invite are the steep exit penalties the B-12 has in place. We can surely see that since it has kept UT/OU from bolting as early as 2023 (their preference), it would keep the remaining B-12 schools in the conference perpetually, especially considering the future B-12 & PAC TV contracts will likely not serve to attract any current P5 schools from other conferences, meaning the PAC will likely backfill with western G5 schools like SDSU, AF or maybe even Boise (Although their academics & limited media market say no). So that doesn't leave our prospects with good odds. And the ACC, really? With recent SEC announcement that they are set at 16 & the strong ACC GOR, I see no movement on that front, odds at 5% or less. Of course, like you just personal opinion.
07-17-2022 05:17 AM
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Keeper Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-13-2022 01:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 01:41 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  A dream but the big 12 is able to convince only three Pac-12 teams come over say Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. To make 4 the big 12 invites Memphis

TigerCity:

I ran that scenario through my soon-to-be-patented Odds Projector Device and they came out at .0031%. Beautiful dream though.

All the Best,

I think you projection to the bigxii is still a bit high; try .00000031%. Odds for ACC are quite a bit better even if much less logical.
07-19-2022 07:49 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-14-2022 09:31 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.


If not for TV market I would consider replacing Temple with Army.

Much agreed - but the problem is getting Army to accept. They seem traumatized by their Conf USA experience.
07-19-2022 09:11 PM
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RockyMTNTiger Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-19-2022 07:49 PM)Keeper Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 01:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  
(07-13-2022 01:41 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  A dream but the big 12 is able to convince only three Pac-12 teams come over say Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. To make 4 the big 12 invites Memphis

TigerCity:

I ran that scenario through my soon-to-be-patented Odds Projector Device and they came out at .0031%. Beautiful dream though.

All the Best,

I think you projection to the bigxii is still a bit high; try .00000031%. Odds for ACC are quite a bit better even if much less logical.

I'll re-feed the data back in the OPD and see if it self corrects or sticks with the initial finding.
07-19-2022 09:13 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Just Spitballen Here
(07-19-2022 09:11 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 09:31 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(07-14-2022 02:46 PM)RockyMTNTiger Wrote:  For whatever inexplicable reason, I keep thinking that a pretty good conference could be comprised of the best of the AAC and the best of the MWC:

Eastern Group

Tigers
SMU
USF
Tulane
Navy
ECU
Temple

Colorado St
Air Force
Boise St
SDSU
Fresno St.
Utah St
UNLV

Some decent rivalries with game content across several time zones.


If not for TV market I would consider replacing Temple with Army.

Much agreed - but the problem is getting Army to accept. They seem traumatized by their Conf USA experience.

They might reconsider with both Navy and Air Force in the conference.
07-20-2022 08:24 AM
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TigerFan38134 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Just Spitballen Here
I definitely agree with a few that, even though it would be a ways down the road, our best odds to move up would be with a depleted ACC once their GOR are up, or nearing that point. I don't think we bring enough to the table to go to the B12 without it losing members, and I don't think the PAC/B12 will raid each other, as it almost seems like a wash for a school to move from one to the other. If the PAC loses any more schools, I think they consider MWC schools or a school in Texas before we show up on their list.

ACC Probability % 47
AAC Probability % 31
B12 Probability % 15
BOR Probability % 7
PAC Probability % 5ish
07-22-2022 10:56 AM
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