(07-10-2022 03:53 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:04 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 01:44 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 04:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  This will be done by 2025. ND is waiting for whatever is going to happen to the ACC to happen. Then, in spite of stirring discussion in this thread, they will head to the B1G without such a lofty payout. You know, "A million saved is a million earned.*"

* Adjusted for inflation.

I think more than a few are waiting on this.

However, as others have noted, Notre Dame has less of a payout, so their leave cost is smaller as well. So they could leave tomorrow.

But that said, yes, I agree, they can at least afford to wait a year or three while tx, ok, and the cal schools are waiting out their gors.

I'd like for them to leave tomorrow, if they are going to do it, but wouldn't the wait be all about the ACC, as JR said?

Getting out of the ACC is a lot cleaner for ND if there is no ACC, or it is a rump ACC.

Maybe ESPN can work some magic get an ACC division in the SEC that ND would like to be in, or affiliated with. ND covers some otherwise suboptimal additions, so the blue sky scenarios get crazy.

That elusive eastern football conference could exist in the SEC- maybe get Stanford in the ESPN League as an independent (USC worked better for this). The ESPN League already has Navy.

I think ESPN can afford to overpay for particular schools if it gets them the P2 they want, keeps ND out of FOX.

If ESPN is not careful, they'll be looking at a BIG with ND, potentially a Big 18 or Big 20 controlled be FOX. Not only does that mean no ESPN controlled "3" to get critical mass over FOX, it makes it more costly to liquidate or move ACC schools to SEC. Which fine, SEC doesn't need them, but ESPN would then have a ACC civil war on its hands, and either they would be forced to pay more for market share they already own, or some ACC schools are going to fight their way out, in which the only true winner can be FOX/BIG

There is an Occam's Razor solution I placed in the new thread on the P5 forum. Maybe the SEC could go west with the Big 10 and essentially finish the PAC. Talk about pressure for a solution! Two behemoths and only the NB12 to pick from? They'd merge and in a few years the Big 10 and SEC could take 4 each and only a P2 would exist. ESPN could keep the remnant.

I could see it! ESPN will have to spend somewhere. And that spending could be adding PAC and in cashing out the positon on the ACC.

2-3 PAC in the SEC isn't too different than 2-3 in BIG. And if it were a 4 team independent pod aligned with SEC-ACC super conference, it is no real change for ND, other than USC is now BIG.

Is there a functional difference with UW, Stanford, Oregon, Cal, and ND all being independents in football, but with ESPN? Or that Pac4 being some pseudo conference in football? Add Utah if needed. The total costs won't be more than an entire conference, and if it got you ND, worth it. This isn't the era of GT, or even the 90's in which you needed a conference for inventory and rights negations imo. ESPN League has more than enough. Give them and ND an invite to the SEC tournament, and lets go.

I see it as giving the ACC what they want while ESPN and the SEC pick up markets and an extra time zone, ("We can't have a time zone gap!" to paraphrase Dr Strangelove.) And once the ACC sees the untenable nature of their arrangement the SEC and B1G split 8 there to finish at 24 each. It's a unique situation when you give someone what they want, and you know it will end up being your leverage.

(07-10-2022 04:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 03:53 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:04 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 01:44 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I think more than a few are waiting on this.

However, as others have noted, Notre Dame has less of a payout, so their leave cost is smaller as well. So they could leave tomorrow.

But that said, yes, I agree, they can at least afford to wait a year or three while tx, ok, and the cal schools are waiting out their gors.

I'd like for them to leave tomorrow, if they are going to do it, but wouldn't the wait be all about the ACC, as JR said?

Getting out of the ACC is a lot cleaner for ND if there is no ACC, or it is a rump ACC.

Maybe ESPN can work some magic get an ACC division in the SEC that ND would like to be in, or affiliated with. ND covers some otherwise suboptimal additions, so the blue sky scenarios get crazy.

That elusive eastern football conference could exist in the SEC- maybe get Stanford in the ESPN League as an independent (USC worked better for this). The ESPN League already has Navy.

I think ESPN can afford to overpay for particular schools if it gets them the P2 they want, keeps ND out of FOX.

If ESPN is not careful, they'll be looking at a BIG with ND, potentially a Big 18 or Big 20 controlled be FOX. Not only does that mean no ESPN controlled "3" to get critical mass over FOX, it makes it more costly to liquidate or move ACC schools to SEC. Which fine, SEC doesn't need them, but ESPN would then have a ACC civil war on its hands, and either they would be forced to pay more for market share they already own, or some ACC schools are going to fight their way out, in which the only true winner can be FOX/BIG

There is an Occam's Razor solution I placed in the new thread on the P5 forum. Maybe the SEC could go west with the Big 10 and essentially finish the PAC. Talk about pressure for a solution! Two behemoths and only the NB12 to pick from? They'd merge and in a few years the Big 10 and SEC could take 4 each and only a P2 would exist. ESPN could keep the remnant.

I could see it! ESPN will have to spend somewhere. And that spending could be adding PAC and in cashing out the positon on the ACC.

2-3 PAC in the SEC isn't too different than 2-3 in BIG. And if it were a 4 team independent pod aligned with SEC-ACC super conference, it is no real change for ND, other than USC is now BIG.

Is there a functional difference with UW, Stanford, Oregon, Cal, and ND all being independents in football, but with ESPN? Or that Pac4 being some pseudo conference in football? Add Utah if needed. The total costs won't be more than an entire conference, and if it got you ND, worth it. This isn't the era of GT, or even the 90's in which you needed a conference for inventory and rights negations imo. ESPN League has more than enough. Give them and ND an invite to the SEC tournament, and lets go.

I see it as giving the ACC what they want while ESPN and the SEC pick up markets and an extra time zone, ("We can't have a time zone gap!" to paraphrase Dr Strangelove.) And once the ACC sees the untenable nature of their arrangement the SEC and B1G split 8 there to finish at 24 each. It's a unique situation when you give someone what they want, and you know it will end up being your leverage.

That is my blind spot- doesn't the ACC already see the untenable situation? Or at least enough schools of value see it?


But if FOX/BIG want to pass on the P2 of Pac-BIG vs SEC-Big12-ACC, then you're correct that we have to start looking at more paths to the P2 steady state.

This one delays the ACC issue imo, which may be what both networks want?

ESPN willing to go west, whether as independents or adding to SEC, is maybe something to exploit. I did not give it much weight. But one can see it adding value. The late night games are too late for mediocre P12 vs P12 to pull, but if it is SEC inventory, often of Big 12 origin, they gained a time slot.

Fox is trying to make a P1 it seems, but that is nothing but a budget banner to hang. If they leave mass for ESPN to take, ESPN with the actual banners and numbers, wins the macros. It is ESPN that could start their own setup.

Which brings me to another thing I missed- is FOX going to make a play to get mass? Perhaps not, but it seems there if they want it imo. They won't have room, so they'd need to offload a lot to other networks, and given their effective equity in BIG, don't even actually want there to be any quality competition, but if they truly have aspirations about BIG-Big East CBB tournament revenue unlocking (separation?), they'll need to spend to prevent ESPN from owning everything outside BIG.

(07-10-2022 04:26 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 04:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 03:53 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-10-2022 02:04 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  I'd like for them to leave tomorrow, if they are going to do it, but wouldn't the wait be all about the ACC, as JR said?

Getting out of the ACC is a lot cleaner for ND if there is no ACC, or it is a rump ACC.

Maybe ESPN can work some magic get an ACC division in the SEC that ND would like to be in, or affiliated with. ND covers some otherwise suboptimal additions, so the blue sky scenarios get crazy.

That elusive eastern football conference could exist in the SEC- maybe get Stanford in the ESPN League as an independent (USC worked better for this). The ESPN League already has Navy.

I think ESPN can afford to overpay for particular schools if it gets them the P2 they want, keeps ND out of FOX.

If ESPN is not careful, they'll be looking at a BIG with ND, potentially a Big 18 or Big 20 controlled be FOX. Not only does that mean no ESPN controlled "3" to get critical mass over FOX, it makes it more costly to liquidate or move ACC schools to SEC. Which fine, SEC doesn't need them, but ESPN would then have a ACC civil war on its hands, and either they would be forced to pay more for market share they already own, or some ACC schools are going to fight their way out, in which the only true winner can be FOX/BIG

There is an Occam's Razor solution I placed in the new thread on the P5 forum. Maybe the SEC could go west with the Big 10 and essentially finish the PAC. Talk about pressure for a solution! Two behemoths and only the NB12 to pick from? They'd merge and in a few years the Big 10 and SEC could take 4 each and only a P2 would exist. ESPN could keep the remnant.

I could see it! ESPN will have to spend somewhere. And that spending could be adding PAC and in cashing out the positon on the ACC.

2-3 PAC in the SEC isn't too different than 2-3 in BIG. And if it were a 4 team independent pod aligned with SEC-ACC super conference, it is no real change for ND, other than USC is now BIG.

Is there a functional difference with UW, Stanford, Oregon, Cal, and ND all being independents in football, but with ESPN? Or that Pac4 being some pseudo conference in football? Add Utah if needed. The total costs won't be more than an entire conference, and if it got you ND, worth it. This isn't the era of GT, or even the 90's in which you needed a conference for inventory and rights negations imo. ESPN League has more than enough. Give them and ND an invite to the SEC tournament, and lets go.

I see it as giving the ACC what they want while ESPN and the SEC pick up markets and an extra time zone, ("We can't have a time zone gap!" to paraphrase Dr Strangelove.) And once the ACC sees the untenable nature of their arrangement the SEC and B1G split 8 there to finish at 24 each. It's a unique situation when you give someone what they want, and you know it will end up being your leverage.

That is my blind spot- doesn't the ACC already see the untenable situation? Or at least enough schools of value see it?


But if FOX/BIG want to pass on the P2 of Pac-BIG vs SEC-Big12-ACC, then you're correct that we have to start looking at more paths to the P2 steady state.

This one delays the ACC issue imo, which may be what both networks want?

ESPN willing to go west, whether as independents or adding to SEC, is maybe something to exploit. I did not give it much weight. But it you can see it adding value. The late night games are too late if mediocre P12 vs P12 to pull, but if it is SEC inventory, often of Big 12 origin, they gained a time slot.

Fox is trying to make a P1 it seems, but that is nothing but a budget banner to hang. If they leave mass for ESPN to take, ESPN with the actual banners and numbers, wins the macros. It is ESPN that could start their own setup.

Which brings me to another thing I missed- is FOX going to make a play to get mass? Perhaps not, but it seems there if they want it imo. They won't have room, so they'd need to offload a lot to other networks, and given their effective equity in BIG, don't even actually want there to be any quality competition, but if they truly have aspirations about BIG-Big East CBB tournament revenue unlocking (separation?), they'll need to spend to prevent ESPN from owning everything outside BIG.

From its entry into college football FOX has wanted one thing which ESPN has denied them, entry into the SE market. It's why ESPN would likely prefer, as my posted alignments have indicated a 7 or 8 school transition from the ACC to the SEC to end that loose end. Expansion West by the SEC would indicate that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be split and ESPN would concentrate on Florida State and Georgia Tech and maybe NC State and/or Va Tech. If both it would be at Clemson's expense.

If the ACC plays ball Kansas would not factor in.

Virginia or Tech, Duke, UNC, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, FSU, Clemson.