(07-02-2022 01:31 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If I’m the XII, I’m using fear against the remaining PAC schools. Here’s how:

Message each school individually stating you are inviting them to join the XII. Tell them that you wouldn’t want them to be stuck in the PAC when more schools get poached by the B1G. Tell them you will only make the offer once and will not consider them as an expansion candidate for the near to mid future.

I bet you get 6: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St.

I think these 6 would go, but only until spots open in the ACC to move WVU and UC out.

The B1G adds Stanford ND UO UW for 20 teams, which can work with 5-6 protected rivals, but 24 is cleaner for scheduling and travel.

ESPN would have to drive any move to accommodate additional teams into the ACC. They could do this in anticipation of a GoR blow up and a four team ACC exodus to the SEC, presumably Duke/UVa/UNC/NC St come off the board as a package either to the B1G or SEC. This is less than 10% chance within 10 years though.

(07-02-2022 02:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  ESPN would have to drive any move to accommodate additional teams into the ACC. They could do this in anticipation of a GoR blow up and a four team ACC exodus to the SEC, presumably Duke/UVa/UNC/NC St come off the board as a package either to the B1G or SEC. This is less than 10% chance within 10 years though.

ESPN owns both the SEC and ACC. I don't see how they let the SEC raid the ACC. Only conference raiding the ACC is the Big Ten if they so desire. Thats why CUSA got raided so often and not the Sun Belt is because (opinion) ESPN owns the Sun Belt but not CUSA.

(07-02-2022 01:31 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If I’m the XII, I’m using fear against the remaining PAC schools. Here’s how:

Message each school individually stating you are inviting them to join the XII. Tell them that you wouldn’t want them to be stuck in the PAC when more schools get poached by the B1G. Tell them you will only make the offer once and will not consider them as an expansion candidate for the near to mid future.

I bet you get 6: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St.

That's kind of risky especially if you end up with only Oregon St. and Washington St. saying yes (they're the 2 schools that would be desperate enough to jump at any offer). That's almost doing the PAC a favor.

(07-02-2022 02:31 AM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 02:17 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  ESPN would have to drive any move to accommodate additional teams into the ACC. They could do this in anticipation of a GoR blow up and a four team ACC exodus to the SEC, presumably Duke/UVa/UNC/NC St come off the board as a package either to the B1G or SEC. This is less than 10% chance within 10 years though.

ESPN owns both the SEC and ACC. I don't see how they let the SEC raid the ACC. Only conference raiding the ACC is the Big Ten if they so desire. Thats why CUSA got raided so often and not the Sun Belt is because (opinion) ESPN owns the Sun Belt but not CUSA.

True, it doesn't make a ton of sense for ESPN.

An 18 team Big 12 isn't really viable so they probably stop short of OSU/WSU, but they could go 6 team divisions:

WVU, UC, UCF, Houston, Baylor, TCU
Colorado, TTech, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU
WSU/BYU/OSU/Utah/ASU/AU

Future defections to the B1G can be covered with schools like CSU/BSU.

(07-01-2022 10:08 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 06:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 06:36 PM)Sactowndog Wrote:  Their is a scenario where adding SDSU and Fresno could increase the PAC’s value……

Part of the problem the PAC has is all 4 CA schools were so elite that few people in CA cared about PAC football because very few people actually went. Those alive when Cal and UCLA took 50% of their applicants are all in their 60’s and half of them are pissed off because their kid wasn’t accepted.

Adding Fresno and SDSU gives you the two commoner schools, where 75% or so can get in, with the two elitist schools: Stanford and Cal. It’s blue collar versus silver spoon, Beer drinkers versus Wine drinkers, Republicans versus Dems, blue bloods versus under dogs.

It’s at least a story you can sell to rekindle interest in California college football.

A likely story...

Perhaps though I don’t think most outside of CA realize the extent the general population has been cut out from attending the CA PAC schools.

We know. It's true all over the country. It's just that the culture has moved away from the 80s movie rich-kid villain trope. It's not like UCLA's fanbase was noticeably more workong-class blue collar than USCs 50 years ago.

It's an argument that just happens to get your school (and SDSU) into the PAC

(07-01-2022 08:28 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I still believe the Pac 12 loses two maybe four more schools. The other Pac 12 schools feel the same hence they're contacting the Big 12.

Let's face it - as bad as losing USC/UCLA is to the PAC, and it devastating, it's not as bad as losing TX and OU were to the Big 12. Those two aren't as valuable as TX and OU, and the remaining PAC schools are much stronger than the remaining Big 12 schools were, or the new Big 12 schools.

So IMO the only way the Big 12 acquires PAC teams is if as you say the B1G isn't done with acquiring PAC teams yet.

In this sense, it's an advantage to the nB12 (in terms of conference stability) that it's schools aren't valuable. It means the don't have as much a chance to be attractive to the SEC or B1G. The PAC is at a disadvantage because it has several schools that are, and thus could get stripped of 2-4 more, which would indeed drop it below the nB12.

(07-01-2022 04:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  TT, Houston and OSU may want to stay married to Baylor. Thinking they've got a rump of potential.

PAC can go out and get into the metroplex with TCU/SMU.

The PAC is dead as we know it, and the below quote is why.

"Not only that, but you are taking a risk that Oregon and Washington won't just decide to leave one day and then Arizona is completely left out of the equation with even less leverage than it had before."

The AZ schools, UT and Colorado do not trust that they will not be left behind by WA, OR, Stanford. And no, TCU/SMU are not moving to the PAC, now or ever. The best the PAC can hope for, is that the Big XII and PAC join and become a super league.

(07-02-2022 07:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 08:28 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I still believe the Pac 12 loses two maybe four more schools. The other Pac 12 schools feel the same hence they're contacting the Big 12.

Let's face it - as bad as losing USC/UCLA is to the PAC, and it devastating, it's not as bad as losing TX and OU were to the Big 12. Those two aren't as valuable as TX and OU, and the remaining PAC schools are much stronger than the remaining Big 12 schools were, or the new Big 12 schools.

So IMO the only way the Big 12 acquires PAC teams is if as you say the B1G isn't done with acquiring PAC teams yet.

In this sense, it's an advantage to the nB12 (in terms of conference stability) that it's schools aren't valuable. It means the don't have as much a chance to be attractive to the SEC or B1G. The PAC is at a disadvantage because it has several schools that are, and thus could get stripped of 2-4 more, which would indeed drop it below the nB12.

The Pac12 is in a much worse shape than the Big 12 is, and certainly was.


Even with USC and UCLA, and the P12 was a decaying conference, often 6th in performance and with increasingly horrible ratings for P12 vs P12 games. Projected to be peer to Big 12 and ACC despite having a few brands 40 year old middle management types have nostalgia for

They have a Pac12 problem, which is why that conference’s top brands are more valuable if in other conferences. Including the Big 12. But as it’s always been, why leave for Big 12 when you could leave for Big 10.

And that’s before USC and UCLA news. They are dead now. In far worse shape than B12 because not only did they start from a worse spot than pre-OUT B12, the two things the P12 had in terms of realignment strength and stability are gone- conference unity and the notion geography will prevent being poached.

This was all very predictable and exactly what the Big 12 leftovers thought when catching their footing late last summer. The P12 (and ACC) were identified as susceptible and in the case of the Pac12, are on the clock before the Big 12. Make them come to you

(07-02-2022 08:28 AM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  TT, Houston and OSU may want to stay married to Baylor. Thinking they've got a rump of potential.

PAC can go out and get into the metroplex with TCU/SMU.

The PAC is dead as we know it, and the below quote is why.

"Not only that, but you are taking a risk that Oregon and Washington won't just decide to leave one day and then Arizona is completely left out of the equation with even less leverage than it had before."

The AZ schools, UT and Colorado do not trust that they will not be left behind by WA, OR, Stanford. And no, TCU/SMU are not moving to the PAC, now or ever. The best the PAC can hope for, is that the Big XII and PAC join and become a super league.

And there’s the conundrum for the AZ schools Utah and Colorado. What if you stick it out in the PAC and then four-five years down the road (if not sooner) Washington and Oregon Cal and Stanford are gone. And what if at the same time the ACC gets raided? And then what if the Big 12 decides it would rather take the leftover eastern ACC schools instead of the leftover western PAC schools? Then what?

So many scenarios. It’s going to be fascinating.

The best move for the Big 12 and Pac 12 schools is to wait and year and see what Notre Dame and the Big 10 do.

Making a decision now without knowing that could lead to some suboptimal moves.

(07-02-2022 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  The best move for the Big 12 and Pac 12 schools is to wait and year and see what Notre Dame and the Big 10 do.

Making a decision now without knowing that could lead to some suboptimal moves.

I'm not even sure it will take a year, we might know the full extent of the B1G's power moves by the end of the summer.

(07-02-2022 09:26 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 08:28 AM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 04:37 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  TT, Houston and OSU may want to stay married to Baylor. Thinking they've got a rump of potential.

PAC can go out and get into the metroplex with TCU/SMU.

The PAC is dead as we know it, and the below quote is why.

"Not only that, but you are taking a risk that Oregon and Washington won't just decide to leave one day and then Arizona is completely left out of the equation with even less leverage than it had before."

The AZ schools, UT and Colorado do not trust that they will not be left behind by WA, OR, Stanford. And no, TCU/SMU are not moving to the PAC, now or ever. The best the PAC can hope for, is that the Big XII and PAC join and become a super league.

And there’s the conundrum for the AZ schools Utah and Colorado. What if you stick it out in the PAC and then four-five years down the road (if not sooner) Washington and Oregon Cal and Stanford are gone. And what if at the same time the ACC gets raided? And then what if the Big 12 decides it would rather take the leftover eastern ACC schools instead of the leftover western PAC schools? Then what?

So many scenarios. It’s going to be fascinating.

Welcome to the conference Bearcat fan. That is certainly a risk. The Frank the Tank types are a decade behind. As has been predicted for years, the Pac 12 is dead.

The reality is both will likely happen and it’s what the Big 12 (including the new 4 schools) banked on happening. Adding the top 4 back fill candidates last summer was to use the early “leak” as an advantage- make the Big 12 the base of the best of the rest conference. Technically the 3 in P3, with the auto to the new CFP the “equalizer”.

Given it’s central location, and first one to be poached, it makes sense. It’s better for all leftovers of all former P5 for there to be a Big 12 West (Big 12 and Pac12 leftovers) and Big 12 East (ACC leftovers plus WVU, Cincy, UCF), than it would be for the three weak former P5s to all backfill and fight each other for scraps.

It’s entertaining seeing these people that didn’t think the Pac12 would be poached, didnt see USC leaving coming, didn’t see the P2 coming, still talking about this superior P12 position. At some point they’ll recognize they have a flawed world view, one more than a decade old

(07-02-2022 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  The best move for the Big 12 and Pac 12 schools is to wait and year and see what Notre Dame and the Big 10 do.

Making a decision now without knowing that could lead to some suboptimal moves.

Well of course. Some moves are already off the table because of the uncertainty. No GOR is happening. There is certainly no interest by Big 12 schools to go to the P12 right now, or in the future. Or the past year, for obvious reasons to even the most delusional now.

The other direction? Schools like Cal, Stanford, UW etc may benefit from waiting.

But there is risk for some P12 schools to agree to wait on the behalf of schools that just applied to the Big 10.

Where’s the upside in that? Zero. Best case scenario they wait and are left in some short GOR in a conference that was already a weak P5 WITH USC/UCLA, getting passed in performance by AAC/MWC, with schools that will again try to leave (in reality they’ll never stop trying to leave).

Meanwhile if SEC and ESPN make similar huge moves with the ACC, that could easily remove options from P12 schools that do not end up with a Big 10 invite.

The Pac12 is dead. The only way it would have a chance to survive is for UW and Oregon etc to sign a very long GOR, which they obviously won’t do regardless of whatever answer they get over the next year. And even then, they’d likely be forced to sit at 10 or add MWC

Fear governs realignment. Most PAC schools must think that it is likely that a couple more PAC schools are heading to the Big 10, e.g. Stanford, Oregon, or Washington. This creates major instability. If those three are looking to leave, the other left behind schools need to act quickly. Hence reports of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado talking to the Big 12. The Big 12 already looks to be more profitable going forward than the PAC 10. Add in those for from the PAC 10 to the Big 12 (16), and the Big 12 is way more attractive and stable. None of the Big 12 is heading to the Big 10 or SEC and this makes it stable. The new additions from AAC and BYU are also extremely valuable. I think there's almost zero chance BYU would get a PAC invite anyway due to the religion issue for the California schools.

So I expect we'll see Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado announce a jump to the Big 12 very soon. Around the same time 2-3 more PAC schools will go to the Big 10. The leftover PAC teams will have to backfill with the best of the MWC: BSU, SDSU, Colorado State, and Air force. Maybe they'll end up with a new PAC 10.

(07-02-2022 10:33 AM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  The best move for the Big 12 and Pac 12 schools is to wait and year and see what Notre Dame and the Big 10 do.

Making a decision now without knowing that could lead to some suboptimal moves.

I'm not even sure it will take a year, we might know the full extent of the B1G's power moves by the end of the summer.

Probably not, but we will definitely know within a year.

(07-02-2022 11:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 10:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  The best move for the Big 12 and Pac 12 schools is to wait and year and see what Notre Dame and the Big 10 do.

Making a decision now without knowing that could lead to some suboptimal moves.

Well of course. Some moves are already off the table because of the uncertainty. No GOR is happening. There is certainly no interest by Big 12 schools to go to the P12 right now, or in the future. Or the past year, for obvious reasons to even the most delusional now.

The other direction? Schools like Cal, Stanford, UW etc may benefit from waiting.

But there is risk for some P12 schools to agree to wait on the behalf of schools that just applied to the Big 10.

Where’s the upside in that? Zero. Best case scenario they wait and are left in some short GOR in a conference that was already a weak P5 WITH USC/UCLA, getting passed in performance by AAC/MWC, with schools that will again try to leave (in reality they’ll never stop trying to leave).

Meanwhile if SEC and ESPN make similar huge moves with the ACC, that could easily remove options from P12 schools that do not end up with a Big 10 invite.

The Pac12 is dead. The only way it would have a chance to survive is for UW and Oregon etc to sign a very long GOR, which they obviously won’t do regardless of whatever answer they get over the next year. And even then, they’d likely be forced to sit at 10 or add MWC

For example, if the Big 10 stays put or takes only Notre Dame and Stanford (or UW or OR), the Pac's best move might be to try a mini-merger with the Big 12, leaving the 3 eastern schools behind. That would be better for the mountain schools than jumping early to the Big 12. So a west of UW, WSU, UO, OSUw, Cal, UU, CU, ASU, UA and an east of BYU, TT, TCU, UH, BU, OSUc, KU, KSU, ISU.