(07-01-2022 12:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:42 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  Well, it seems like the Pac-12 is going to collapse first.

In a way this shows how binding the GoR really is. The ACC schools cannot get out until 203x no matter how many different scenarios people come up with.

You will find it as binding as Ex-Lax when the rest of your conference gets the trots for richer digs within ESPN.

If not binding, how come no ACC schools haven’t left yet?

The demise of the ACC has been a topic for years but instead the B12 and the P12 schools got poached first.

The Big 12 had the most disparity in value. Texas and Oklahoma were 54% of the total value of the B12. Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M departed knowing it didn't have enough market reach to remain viable.

The PAC 12 was the lowest revenue generator and had time zone disadvantages. NIL pushed USC over the edge.

The ACC leaders are not your most valuable schools in sports, at least not under the NCAA. NIL and pay for play, which is coming, will push them over the edge as well. Clemson is already screaming. Without ND the ACC has no upside and becomes the new PAC. UNC and Clemson knew this when OU and UT joined the SEC and renewed back channel talks at that time.

What ESPN will have to do is find safe landing spots which have P access and pay slightly more and the ACC can dissolve. Wake, BC, Pitt know after 2035 it will be dire for them. ND is gone essentially. UNC, UVa, Va Tech, Duke, Clemson, FSU/Miami, and NC State/Ga Tech will form with the SEC as 100% ESPN property.

IMO this necessitates ESPN buy B12 rights and pay them slightly more than the ACC and move those not going to the SEC into the B12. ESPN retains all rights except for ND which they only had a sliver of (2 games one year and 3 the other) and they keep the 2 regions they desired the most at the cost of promoting 8 which will be worth more when paired with other brands.

(07-01-2022 12:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:42 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  Well, it seems like the Pac-12 is going to collapse first.

In a way this shows how binding the GoR really is. The ACC schools cannot get out until 203x no matter how many different scenarios people come up with.

You will find it as binding as Ex-Lax when the rest of your conference gets the trots for richer digs within ESPN.

If not binding, how come no ACC schools haven’t left yet?

The demise of the ACC has been a topic for years but instead the B12 and the P12 schools got poached first.

The Big 12 had the most disparity in value. Texas and Oklahoma were 54% of the total value of the B12. Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M departed knowing it didn't have enough market reach to remain viable.

The PAC 12 was the lowest revenue generator and had time zone disadvantages. NIL pushed USC over the edge.

The ACC leaders are not your most valuable schools in sports, at least not under the NCAA. NIL and pay for play, which is coming, will push them over the edge as well. Clemson is already screaming. Without ND the ACC has no upside and becomes the new PAC. UNC and Clemson knew this when OU and UT joined the SEC and renewed back channel talks at that time.

What ESPN will have to do is find safe landing spots which have P access and pay slightly more and the ACC can dissolve. Wake, BC, Pitt know after 2035 it will be dire for them. ND is gone essentially. UNC, UVa, Va Tech, Duke, Clemson, FSU/Miami, and NC State/Ga Tech will form with the SEC as 100% ESPN property.

IMO this necessitates ESPN buy B12 rights and pay them slightly more than the ACC and move those not going to the SEC into the B12. ESPN retains all rights except for ND which they only had a sliver of (2 games one year and 3 the other) and they keep the 2 regions they desired the most at the cost of promoting 8 which will be worth more when paired with other brands.

You might be right JR.

But my point is this: when/if your “P2 plus One” scenario comes true, I think the ACC will be likely that “One” conference as opposed to the B12 or the Pac. The ACC will have plenty of time to add B12 / P12 teams before the GOR expires.

If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

(06-26-2022 08:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  The ACC will release Clemson and FSU from its GoR agreement. ESPN will honor its contract with the ACC and won't reduce their total payout when those two depart for the SEC. ESPN will increase their payout to the SEC pro rata, so no current SEC teams (including OUT) will subsidize this move. The SEC agrees not to poach any more ACC teams for the remaining 12 years of their G0R.

Clemson and FSU will pay $360 million each to get out of the ACC, payable at $30 million a year for 12 years. That covers both their exit fee and their price to get released from the GoR. Those amounts will be deducted from their SEC annual distribution by the SEC who will in turn remit the $60 million a year to the ACC. The ACC will distribute that money equally among remaining ACC members, but only as long as each of them remains in the league. If any others leave their share will be divided among those who remain. No new members added by the ACC will share in this distribution.

At the end of the day, ESPN would be paying $140 million a year ($70 million each to move Clemson and FSU), so each current ACC member (including Clemson and FSU) would end up with $10 million a year more than they now get. Clemson and FSU would also be able to command more revenue from ticket sales (the Tigers by raising season ticket prices due to a much improved schedule, and FSU by filling up all those empty seats in their stadium).

Assuming Clemson and FSU are the only two schools that want out AND have a suitor, then I would ask the ACC leaders (UVA, Duke and UNC) to extend the GOR as a way of stablizing and expressing confidence in the conference's future.

(06-25-2022 08:46 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  So for the purpose of wrapping this up, I propose that certain schools will have to go to the SEC in order for this to work.

Florida State
Miami
Clemson
North Carolina
Duke
Virginia

Each of these schools has a compelling reason to be in the SEC when the smoke clears. It's not just their inherent economic strength or ability to compete, it's the connections. FSU and Clemson have no reason to agree to go to the Big 12. The SEC wants them...

A lot of that analysis is great, but the money doesn't work out. Let's say the SEC is on a path to getting $50 million per school per year in media rights. The break-even number for adding these six schools would therefore be $300 million per season, which is darn close to what the entire ACC gets right now.

I get that there are times when the whole is better than the sum of its parts, but I don't see any way in which those six teams are worth more than what the SEC already brings to the table. So it would have to be a money loser. Or did I miss something?

(06-26-2022 08:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  Wow. That's a lot of moving parts. And, frankly, I don't think there is enough value added to the SEC to pay ten new members and keep the current 16 whole, much less get them a raise. Politically, pulling this off would be as difficult as achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.

Let me try something simpler, which though hardly a slam dunk, at least may be possible to achieve.

Let's assume this is the status quo (even if you don't accept that this is completely true):

The ACC is locked into a long term media contract and GoR which puts their 14 all sports members at about a $40 million annual revenue gap for the life of those deals. Clemson and Florida State feel like they are trapped in an unhappy marriage. Both of them would much rather play in the SEC. Both would be worth more with an SEC schedule.

With that framework, the ACC, SEC and ESPN strike a deal.

The ACC will release Clemson and FSU from its GoR agreement. ESPN will honor its contract with the ACC and won't reduce their total payout when those two depart for the SEC. ESPN will increase their payout to the SEC pro rata, so no current SEC teams (including OUT) will subsidize this move. The SEC agrees not to poach any more ACC teams for the remaining 12 years of their G0R.

Clemson and FSU will pay $360 million each to get out of the ACC, payable at $30 million a year for 12 years. That covers both their exit fee and their price to get released from the GoR. Those amounts will be deducted from their SEC annual distribution by the SEC who will in turn remit the $60 million a year to the ACC. The ACC will distribute that money equally among remaining ACC members, but only as long as each of them remains in the league. If any others leave their share will be divided among those who remain. No new members added by the ACC will share in this distribution.

At the end of the day, ESPN would be paying $140 million a year ($70 million each to move Clemson and FSU), so each current ACC member (including Clemson and FSU) would end up with $10 million a year more than they now get. Clemson and FSU would also be able to command more revenue from ticket sales (the Tigers by raising season ticket prices due to a much improved schedule, and FSU by filling up all those empty seats in their stadium).

You don't need to involve the Big 12 in any of this. ESPN potentially could recoup some of that $140 million by reducing its payments to the NB12 after OUT leave.

Now we have the ACC and B12 at 12 members each and the SEC at 18 (whereupon they tell the NCAA or whoever is in charge that they plan to stage a four team conference championship tournament).

That may never happen, but IMO it stands a better chance than dissolving the ACC.

Creative!
Will the ACC in turn have to add a UCF or USF to make up for the loss in Florida market to help support the ACCN, or a West Virginia to help rivalries in the NE with better viewership?
Wouldn't ESPN have to foot the bill for those additions for your plan to succeed?
I understand the ACCN aspect is unknown, but must be considered.

(07-01-2022 01:54 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

yes, a P"3" is coming imo.

It is better for all non-P2s that were former P5s for there to be just one leftover conference.

The worst case for the leftovers is for there to be a P2+? with the "?" being multiple former P5s that have backfilled with G5, adding even more mouths to the middle class, and losing exclusivity for P2 scraps.

it is also more efficient for the networks, and the same brand consolidation that is driving the P2.

If/when the Pac12 is removed, living on as a pod/division in BIG, then the ACC becomes a division of SEC, it makes far more sense to have the leftover ACC join a "Big 12 East", which will look a lot like the Big East.

(07-04-2022 11:40 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:54 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

yes, a P"3" is coming imo.

It is better for all non-P2s that were former P5s for there to be just one leftover conference.

The worst case for the leftovers is for there to be a P2+? with the "?" being multiple former P5s that have backfilled with G5, adding even more mouths to the middle class, and losing exclusivity for P2 scraps.

it is also more efficient for the networks, and the same brand consolidation that is driving the P2.

If/when the Pac12 is removed, living on as a pod/division in BIG, then the ACC becomes a division of SEC, it makes far more sense to have the leftover ACC join a "Big 12 East", which will look a lot like the Big East.

I think you are 100% right about this, and I hope the current P5 schools who aren't getting into the P2 recognize it. Backfilling with G5 callups just muddies the waters for down the road and may present roadblocks to forming possible new conferences down the road when those called up schools have votes and could be left behind.

Or if you're a current P5 member who is in due to history and just lucky to be there, you also run the risk that callups could make it big and overshadow your school the next time the winds of change are blowing. Some of the G5 schools are in huge markets and they may be more desirable than smaller schools in less populated areas if they have sustained success.

(07-07-2022 10:46 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 11:40 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:54 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

yes, a P"3" is coming imo.

It is better for all non-P2s that were former P5s for there to be just one leftover conference.

The worst case for the leftovers is for there to be a P2+? with the "?" being multiple former P5s that have backfilled with G5, adding even more mouths to the middle class, and losing exclusivity for P2 scraps.

it is also more efficient for the networks, and the same brand consolidation that is driving the P2.

If/when the Pac12 is removed, living on as a pod/division in BIG, then the ACC becomes a division of SEC, it makes far more sense to have the leftover ACC join a "Big 12 East", which will look a lot like the Big East.

I think you are 100% right about this, and I hope the current P5 schools who aren't getting into the P2 recognize it. Backfilling with G5 callups just muddies the waters for down the road and may present roadblocks to forming possible new conferences down the road when those called up schools have votes and could be left behind.

Or if you're a current P5 member who is in due to history and just lucky to be there, you also run the risk that callups could make it big and overshadow your school the next time the winds of change are blowing. Some of the G5 schools are in huge markets and they may be more desirable than smaller schools in less populated areas if they have sustained success.

It was bad enough the Big 12 did it, and it was a market inefficiency of these schools/conferences not being able to work together.

I do think there was a tiny bit of room for adding a select few G5 to remove the chance of another Cincy situation occurring. I don't think the P2 care, but the 3rd will want the G5s conference perceptions to be so far lower, that even running the table isn't good enough. MWC with Oregon St, WSU, and SMU would test that.

ESPN has interest in as few leftovers as possible in liquation of two of the Big 12, Pac, and ACC (would be all 3 but they have a long obligation on ACC), but greed could burn them. Seems like they may let the desire to cull 3-4 schools get in the way of them having control over the "3", which would have given them critical mass and control over college athletics.

Had last summer, in conjunction with their OUT move, ESPN told the ACC we're going to move the R8, or most of the R8, to the ACC, give you an updated deal, but top ACC go to SEC, the ACC SHOULD have taken it. They'd be making equal or more, with all risk of ending up on the street (American) removed. Add in these Pac6, and it is the P3, with 2-5 schools more than ideal for ESPN, but that can be worked on. Now, ESPN gave FOX time to build a war chest and compete for market share

(07-07-2022 06:14 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-07-2022 10:46 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 11:40 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:54 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

yes, a P"3" is coming imo.

It is better for all non-P2s that were former P5s for there to be just one leftover conference.

The worst case for the leftovers is for there to be a P2+? with the "?" being multiple former P5s that have backfilled with G5, adding even more mouths to the middle class, and losing exclusivity for P2 scraps.

it is also more efficient for the networks, and the same brand consolidation that is driving the P2.

If/when the Pac12 is removed, living on as a pod/division in BIG, then the ACC becomes a division of SEC, it makes far more sense to have the leftover ACC join a "Big 12 East", which will look a lot like the Big East.

I think you are 100% right about this, and I hope the current P5 schools who aren't getting into the P2 recognize it. Backfilling with G5 callups just muddies the waters for down the road and may present roadblocks to forming possible new conferences down the road when those called up schools have votes and could be left behind.

Or if you're a current P5 member who is in due to history and just lucky to be there, you also run the risk that callups could make it big and overshadow your school the next time the winds of change are blowing. Some of the G5 schools are in huge markets and they may be more desirable than smaller schools in less populated areas if they have sustained success.

It was bad enough the Big 12 did it, and it was a market inefficiency of these schools/conferences not being able to work together.

I do think there was a tiny bit of room for adding a select few G5 to remove the chance of another Cincy situation occurring. I don't think the P2 care, but the 3rd will want the G5s conference perceptions to be so far lower, that even running the table isn't good enough. MWC with Oregon St, WSU, and SMU would test that.

ESPN has interest in as few leftovers as possible in liquation of two of the Big 12, Pac, and ACC (would be all 3 but they have a long obligation on ACC), but greed could burn them. Seems like they may let the desire to cull 3-4 schools get in the way of them having control over the "3", which would have given them critical mass and control over college athletics.

Had last summer, in conjunction with their OUT move, ESPN told the ACC we're going to move the R8, or most of the R8, to the ACC, give you an updated deal, but top ACC go to SEC, the ACC SHOULD have taken it. They'd be making equal or more, with all risk of ending up on the street (American) removed. Add in these Pac6, and it is the P3, with 2-5 schools more than ideal for ESPN, but that can be worked on. Now, ESPN gave FOX time to build a war chest and compete for market share

That's on ESPN. They are being penny-wise but pound-foolish when it comes to the ACC, Big XII, and Pac-12. Just merge them, take out the teams you need for the SEC, let Fox have a few for the Big Ten (maybe?), and give the Best-of-the-Rest conference a reasonable payday...

(07-07-2022 10:46 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 11:40 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:54 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  If the B1G continues to raid the P12 for its big programs, and stops, then the SEC will raid the ACC for its southern gems. The remaining schools likely bribed to vote to reduce/rescind, etc. their GoR, and to merge with the Big XII + Pac12-?. P3 coming.

yes, a P"3" is coming imo.

It is better for all non-P2s that were former P5s for there to be just one leftover conference.

The worst case for the leftovers is for there to be a P2+? with the "?" being multiple former P5s that have backfilled with G5, adding even more mouths to the middle class, and losing exclusivity for P2 scraps.

it is also more efficient for the networks, and the same brand consolidation that is driving the P2.

If/when the Pac12 is removed, living on as a pod/division in BIG, then the ACC becomes a division of SEC, it makes far more sense to have the leftover ACC join a "Big 12 East", which will look a lot like the Big East.

I think you are 100% right about this, and I hope the current P5 schools who aren't getting into the P2 recognize it. Backfilling with G5 callups just muddies the waters for down the road and may present roadblocks to forming possible new conferences down the road when those called up schools have votes and could be left behind.

Or if you're a current P5 member who is in due to history and just lucky to be there, you also run the risk that callups could make it big and overshadow your school the next time the winds of change are blowing. Some of the G5 schools are in huge markets and they may be more desirable than smaller schools in less populated areas if they have sustained success.

Agree that the ACC, B12 and PAC would benefit if they could strategically collaborate.

When the B12 lost OUT last year, ESPN was probably trying to place some schools in the ACC (maybe WVU, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State) and PAC (maybe Kansas and Iowa State). The strategy would be that if 8 of 10 B12 would have found homes in other Power conferences, then it makes future realignment easier. No one invited any B12 members, so Bowlsby rebuilt by adding from the G5. Up to six months ago, most members of the ACC and PAC naively thought that they were immune to the P2 evolution.

The lower value schools (say BC, Syracuse and Wake) in the ACC would probably have gone along with adding a few B12 members last year. The higher value schools (say UNC and FSU) likely killed the proposal.

Some partnership between the PAC & B12 or ACC & PAC or ACC, B12 & PAC now seems more likely.

(07-01-2022 01:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:42 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  Well, it seems like the Pac-12 is going to collapse first.

In a way this shows how binding the GoR really is. The ACC schools cannot get out until 203x no matter how many different scenarios people come up with.

You will find it as binding as Ex-Lax when the rest of your conference gets the trots for richer digs within ESPN.

If not binding, how come no ACC schools haven’t left yet?

The demise of the ACC has been a topic for years but instead the B12 and the P12 schools got poached first.

The Big 12 had the most disparity in value. Texas and Oklahoma were 54% of the total value of the B12. Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M departed knowing it didn't have enough market reach to remain viable.

The PAC 12 was the lowest revenue generator and had time zone disadvantages. NIL pushed USC over the edge.

The ACC leaders are not your most valuable schools in sports, at least not under the NCAA. NIL and pay for play, which is coming, will push them over the edge as well. Clemson is already screaming. Without ND the ACC has no upside and becomes the new PAC. UNC and Clemson knew this when OU and UT joined the SEC and renewed back channel talks at that time.

What ESPN will have to do is find safe landing spots which have P access and pay slightly more and the ACC can dissolve. Wake, BC, Pitt know after 2035 it will be dire for them. ND is gone essentially. UNC, UVa, Va Tech, Duke, Clemson, FSU/Miami, and NC State/Ga Tech will form with the SEC as 100% ESPN property.

IMO this necessitates ESPN buy B12 rights and pay them slightly more than the ACC and move those not going to the SEC into the B12. ESPN retains all rights except for ND which they only had a sliver of (2 games one year and 3 the other) and they keep the 2 regions they desired the most at the cost of promoting 8 which will be worth more when paired with other brands.

You might be right JR.

But my point is this: when/if your “P2 plus One” scenario comes true, I think the ACC will be likely that “One” conference as opposed to the B12 or the Pac. The ACC will have plenty of time to add B12 / P12 teams before the GOR expires.

If there is a P2 +1, the ACC is on the menu. A western conference will be the +1.

(07-13-2022 07:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 11:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  You will find it as binding as Ex-Lax when the rest of your conference gets the trots for richer digs within ESPN.

If not binding, how come no ACC schools haven’t left yet?

The demise of the ACC has been a topic for years but instead the B12 and the P12 schools got poached first.

The Big 12 had the most disparity in value. Texas and Oklahoma were 54% of the total value of the B12. Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M departed knowing it didn't have enough market reach to remain viable.

The PAC 12 was the lowest revenue generator and had time zone disadvantages. NIL pushed USC over the edge.

The ACC leaders are not your most valuable schools in sports, at least not under the NCAA. NIL and pay for play, which is coming, will push them over the edge as well. Clemson is already screaming. Without ND the ACC has no upside and becomes the new PAC. UNC and Clemson knew this when OU and UT joined the SEC and renewed back channel talks at that time.

What ESPN will have to do is find safe landing spots which have P access and pay slightly more and the ACC can dissolve. Wake, BC, Pitt know after 2035 it will be dire for them. ND is gone essentially. UNC, UVa, Va Tech, Duke, Clemson, FSU/Miami, and NC State/Ga Tech will form with the SEC as 100% ESPN property.

IMO this necessitates ESPN buy B12 rights and pay them slightly more than the ACC and move those not going to the SEC into the B12. ESPN retains all rights except for ND which they only had a sliver of (2 games one year and 3 the other) and they keep the 2 regions they desired the most at the cost of promoting 8 which will be worth more when paired with other brands.

You might be right JR.

But my point is this: when/if your “P2 plus One” scenario comes true, I think the ACC will be likely that “One” conference as opposed to the B12 or the Pac. The ACC will have plenty of time to add B12 / P12 teams before the GOR expires.

If there is a P2 +1, the ACC is on the menu. A western conference will be the +1.

Define Western? The more responsive viewership is from Texas (East & North Texas to be precise) to the East. More high school ball players are there and consequently more recruits. But no matter, if one arises it will stretch coast to coast like the Big 10 will and divisions will likely be very regional.

If it is FOX based it could take the name B12, but ESPN has more reason to build it and the ACC is set up to be a 100% ESPN asset. If one exists, I suspect it will be ESPN founded because only ESPN truly has need of one for liability avoidance should they feel their most profitable move is the transfer of key ACC properties elsewhere in an effort to better compensate them keep them outright.

FOX may desire to add more rights but picking up a remnant conference on its own would likely be cheaper to do, and there are 2 available.

(07-13-2022 07:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-13-2022 07:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 01:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 12:19 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  If not binding, how come no ACC schools haven’t left yet?

The demise of the ACC has been a topic for years but instead the B12 and the P12 schools got poached first.

The Big 12 had the most disparity in value. Texas and Oklahoma were 54% of the total value of the B12. Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M departed knowing it didn't have enough market reach to remain viable.

The PAC 12 was the lowest revenue generator and had time zone disadvantages. NIL pushed USC over the edge.

The ACC leaders are not your most valuable schools in sports, at least not under the NCAA. NIL and pay for play, which is coming, will push them over the edge as well. Clemson is already screaming. Without ND the ACC has no upside and becomes the new PAC. UNC and Clemson knew this when OU and UT joined the SEC and renewed back channel talks at that time.

What ESPN will have to do is find safe landing spots which have P access and pay slightly more and the ACC can dissolve. Wake, BC, Pitt know after 2035 it will be dire for them. ND is gone essentially. UNC, UVa, Va Tech, Duke, Clemson, FSU/Miami, and NC State/Ga Tech will form with the SEC as 100% ESPN property.

IMO this necessitates ESPN buy B12 rights and pay them slightly more than the ACC and move those not going to the SEC into the B12. ESPN retains all rights except for ND which they only had a sliver of (2 games one year and 3 the other) and they keep the 2 regions they desired the most at the cost of promoting 8 which will be worth more when paired with other brands.

You might be right JR.

But my point is this: when/if your “P2 plus One” scenario comes true, I think the ACC will be likely that “One” conference as opposed to the B12 or the Pac. The ACC will have plenty of time to add B12 / P12 teams before the GOR expires.

If there is a P2 +1, the ACC is on the menu. A western conference will be the +1.

Define Western? The more responsive viewership is from Texas (East & North Texas to be precise) to the East. More high school ball players are there and consequently more recruits. But no matter, if one arises it will stretch coast to coast like the Big 10 will and divisions will likely be very regional.

If it is FOX based it could take the name B12, but ESPN has more reason to build it and the ACC is set up to be a 100% ESPN asset. If one exists, I suspect it will be ESPN founded because only ESPN truly has need of one for liability avoidance should they feel their most profitable move is the transfer of key ACC properties elsewhere in an effort to better compensate them keep them outright.

FOX may desire to add more rights but picking up a remnant conference on its own would likely be cheaper to do, and there are 2 available.

If there is a P2+1 it will be because the Big 10 and SEC gobble up the better programs from the ACC. The ACC will not be a survivor. It will be the Big 12 or Pac.

(07-02-2022 12:08 PM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  

(06-26-2022 08:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  The ACC will release Clemson and FSU from its GoR agreement. ESPN will honor its contract with the ACC and won't reduce their total payout when those two depart for the SEC. ESPN will increase their payout to the SEC pro rata, so no current SEC teams (including OUT) will subsidize this move. The SEC agrees not to poach any more ACC teams for the remaining 12 years of their G0R.

Clemson and FSU will pay $360 million each to get out of the ACC, payable at $30 million a year for 12 years. That covers both their exit fee and their price to get released from the GoR. Those amounts will be deducted from their SEC annual distribution by the SEC who will in turn remit the $60 million a year to the ACC. The ACC will distribute that money equally among remaining ACC members, but only as long as each of them remains in the league. If any others leave their share will be divided among those who remain. No new members added by the ACC will share in this distribution.

At the end of the day, ESPN would be paying $140 million a year ($70 million each to move Clemson and FSU), so each current ACC member (including Clemson and FSU) would end up with $10 million a year more than they now get. Clemson and FSU would also be able to command more revenue from ticket sales (the Tigers by raising season ticket prices due to a much improved schedule, and FSU by filling up all those empty seats in their stadium).

Assuming Clemson and FSU are the only two schools that want out AND have a suitor, then I would ask the ACC leaders (UVA, Duke and UNC) to extend the GOR as a way of stablizing and expressing confidence in the conference's future.

What would be the point?
If you let two schools out of a GOR then what is the purpose in instituting a new one that could also be bought out of?

(07-15-2022 04:19 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(07-02-2022 12:08 PM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  

(06-26-2022 08:09 AM)ken d Wrote:  The ACC will release Clemson and FSU from its GoR agreement. ESPN will honor its contract with the ACC and won't reduce their total payout when those two depart for the SEC. ESPN will increase their payout to the SEC pro rata, so no current SEC teams (including OUT) will subsidize this move. The SEC agrees not to poach any more ACC teams for the remaining 12 years of their G0R.

Clemson and FSU will pay $360 million each to get out of the ACC, payable at $30 million a year for 12 years. That covers both their exit fee and their price to get released from the GoR. Those amounts will be deducted from their SEC annual distribution by the SEC who will in turn remit the $60 million a year to the ACC. The ACC will distribute that money equally among remaining ACC members, but only as long as each of them remains in the league. If any others leave their share will be divided among those who remain. No new members added by the ACC will share in this distribution.

At the end of the day, ESPN would be paying $140 million a year ($70 million each to move Clemson and FSU), so each current ACC member (including Clemson and FSU) would end up with $10 million a year more than they now get. Clemson and FSU would also be able to command more revenue from ticket sales (the Tigers by raising season ticket prices due to a much improved schedule, and FSU by filling up all those empty seats in their stadium).

Assuming Clemson and FSU are the only two schools that want out AND have a suitor, then I would ask the ACC leaders (UVA, Duke and UNC) to extend the GOR as a way of stablizing and expressing confidence in the conference's future.

What would be the point?
If you let two schools out of a GOR then what is the purpose in instituting a new one that could also be bought out of?

To increase the cost to those three schools if they want to leave later.