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Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #1
Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
Ben Koo of Awful Announcement with a column on the options for the Pac-12 Networks with their recent struggles getting the content out there to viewers. He cites a tweet from Jon Wilner where Wilner thinks that football could be taken out of the Pac-12 Networks and sell them on the market.

Here's the big quote:

Quote:Given that the outlook and trajectory for the Pac-12 Networks has stayed consistently bleak compared to other conference networks, the takeaway here is that the conference is no longer interested in pursuing the long-term upside of propping up the Pac 12 Network with football games. It’s costing them money, and there isn’t reason to believe that’s going to stop. So why keep doing it? The writing is on the wall.

So if this comes to fruition, this really eliminates the option laid out of revising the model to match the Big Ten Network and SEC Network. Those networks have football. That’s where the value is. Eliminating football really leaves a pretty limited amount of options in a) shuttering the network and selling the content and or b) potentially pivoting the Pac-12 Networks into an Olympic sports-only streaming service.

https://awfulannouncing.com/league-netwo...twork.html

From my standpoint, eliminating the PAC12N would put a lot of PAC third-tier games in limbo. I doubt it's possible that Cal vs UC Davis-type games would find takers without a dedicated network. Maybe Amazon might find a few of them valuable enough to take a few of them.

If I'm Fox then I should be looking seriously at buying the P12N if only to outmaneuver the likes of Amazon, Apple or Disney. Perhaps they can find a way to merge the P12N with BTN, allowing them to stretch the reach from the Midwest to the West and beyond.
06-22-2022 11:34 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
Actually, I’m super bullish on the Pac-12 rights *because* of all of those third tier football games going to market.

The primary business justification why all of these media companies are bidding up sports rights is because they all want to invest for their streaming services. That’s what Wall Street is demanding from all of them.

The content that has been on the Pac-12 Networks is *perfect* for streaming. The Big Ten *might* be willing to send one game that would have otherwise been on BTN over to Amazon as a streaming exclusive. In contrast, the Pac-12 seems to be willing to effectively shut the Pac-12 Networks down and send everything that was on there to streaming, which includes a ton of football and basketball games. ESPN+ has been showing a heck of a lot more games that are worse than Cal vs. UC-Davis. The amount of content that the Pac-12 is offering is actually massive compared to the Big Ten - they’ve got enough to move from the Pac-12 Networks to effectively create an entire sports department for Apple or Amazon or further cement ESPN+.

The market is showing that they’ll pay a premium for exclusive streaming rights and the Pac-12 has a lot of content available that they’re willing to put there. While the Pac-12 won’t be getting the same level of rights fees for their first tier TV contracts as the Big Ten and SEC, they’re going to get a huge boost from finally being able to monetize their Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights where they have been underpaid for the past decade due to the poor performance of the Pac-12 Networks. The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
06-23-2022 06:54 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.
06-23-2022 08:24 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.
06-23-2022 09:13 AM
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

Theoretically they are, but the actual TV ratings numbers say they have been a clear #5. Reality sometimes gets in the way of theory.

On the other hand, the ACC did have bad timing on their long term deal and so the Pac 12 may pass them by leaving the ACC undervalued.
06-23-2022 09:40 AM
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GoBuckeyes1047 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

If the PAC-12 does become a distant #3 league (B1G/SEC *Gap* PAC *Gap* ACC/Big 12), would it be reasonable to see the ACC try to add Big 12 teams to try to separate themselves from them, add security to the league/prevent poaching from B1G/SEC, and eventually set themselves up to catch the PAC-12 when their current contract expires? All of this assumes adding teams wouldn't decrease TV revenue per team.
06-23-2022 09:42 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:40 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

Theoretically they are, but the actual TV ratings numbers say they have been a clear #5. Reality sometimes gets in the way of theory.

On the other hand, the ACC did have bad timing on their long term deal and so the Pac 12 may pass them by leaving the ACC undervalued.

Yes, I understand the TV ratings argument, but that's also looking at USC being at its lowest point for the past 30 years while OU and Clemson have been at their respective highs. OU is heading to the SEC, so that's of no value to the next Big 12 contract.

This is a softer factor, but also remember that the people running these media companies are totally filled with USC and UCLA alums specifically. These TV networks are located right down the street from those schools. That doesn't mean that they'd value the Pac-12 over the SEC and Big Ten (as all of these people value profits over everything else)... but it also means that they're going to give the league the benefit of the doubt because there's a level of familiarity and understanding there with the schools and brands that doesn't exist with, say, the new Big 12. I just look back at the TV ratings when USC was rolling in the 2000s and they were the single biggest TV draw of any school in the country and a lot of the people running these media companies remember that (just as they remember the ratings for the Cowboys in the 1990s even though they've underperformed since then). The Pac-12 parlayed that into their current deal that was the largest contract of any conference in history when it was signed. The real revenue shortfall for the Pac-12 has been with their Tier 2/3 rights that have been on the Pac-12 Networks (where the Big Ten and SEC have huge advantages) as opposed to the Tier 1 contract.
06-23-2022 09:54 AM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Actually, I’m super bullish on the Pac-12 rights *because* of all of those third tier football games going to market.

The primary business justification why all of these media companies are bidding up sports rights is because they all want to invest for their streaming services. That’s what Wall Street is demanding from all of them.

The content that has been on the Pac-12 Networks is *perfect* for streaming. The Big Ten *might* be willing to send one game that would have otherwise been on BTN over to Amazon as a streaming exclusive. In contrast, the Pac-12 seems to be willing to effectively shut the Pac-12 Networks down and send everything that was on there to streaming, which includes a ton of football and basketball games. ESPN+ has been showing a heck of a lot more games that are worse than Cal vs. UC-Davis. The amount of content that the Pac-12 is offering is actually massive compared to the Big Ten - they’ve got enough to move from the Pac-12 Networks to effectively create an entire sports department for Apple or Amazon or further cement ESPN+.

The market is showing that they’ll pay a premium for exclusive streaming rights and the Pac-12 has a lot of content available that they’re willing to put there. While the Pac-12 won’t be getting the same level of rights fees for their first tier TV contracts as the Big Ten and SEC, they’re going to get a huge boost from finally being able to monetize their Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights where they have been underpaid for the past decade due to the poor performance of the Pac-12 Networks. The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.

So basically overpaying for the content because they need to populate their respective services? While I could see that happening, it'll only happen once.
06-23-2022 09:56 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:42 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

If the PAC-12 does become a distant #3 league (B1G/SEC *Gap* PAC *Gap* ACC/Big 12), would it be reasonable to see the ACC try to add Big 12 teams to try to separate themselves from them, add security to the league/prevent poaching from B1G/SEC, and eventually set themselves up to catch the PAC-12 when their current contract expires? All of this assumes adding teams wouldn't decrease TV revenue per team.

The bolded is the crux of the issue - I don't think that scenario exists for the ACC.

If it actually existed, the ACC (or the Big Ten or Pac-12, for that matter) would have added Big 12 schools last year when every single school in that league was calling/begging for spots in the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC. The fact that none of those conferences lifted a finger outside of forming their Alliance (particularly with the Big Ten and Pac-12 heading into a year with negotiating TV deals that could immediately monetize expansion) speaks volumes.
06-23-2022 09:57 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Yes, I understand the TV ratings argument, but that's also looking at USC being at its lowest point for the past 30 years while OU and Clemson have been at their respective highs.

Frank, I understand what you're saying about USC, but that exact same argument applies to Miami, who's last trip to the national championship was 3 years before USC's last.

The ACC, in theory, has 2 national brands (FSU and Miami) in football, 2 more regional+ brands (Clemson and Virginia Tech), and at least 4 national brands in basketball (UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville). If those brands would all perform up to their historic standards, there's simply no way the Pac-12 could touch the ACC's TV ratings, IMO.

I truly think the ACC's problems all stem from poor timing and poor negotiation on the part of the conference. ESPN is laughing all the way to the bank.
(This post was last modified: 06-23-2022 10:10 AM by Hokie Mark.)
06-23-2022 10:08 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 10:08 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 09:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Yes, I understand the TV ratings argument, but that's also looking at USC being at its lowest point for the past 30 years while OU and Clemson have been at their respective highs.

Frank, I understand what you're saying about USC, but that exact same argument applies to Miami, who's last trip to the national championship was 3 years before USC's last.

The ACC, in theory, has 2 national brands (FSU and Miami) in football, 2 more regional+ brands (Clemson and Virginia Tech), and at least 4 national brands in basketball (UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville). If those brands would all perform up to their historic standards, there's simply no way the Pac-12 could touch the ACC's TV ratings, IMO.

I truly think the ACC's problems all stem from poor timing and poor negotiation on the part of the conference. ESPN is laughing all the way to the bank.

I agree with you on the value of schools like FSU and Miami. It's more that the ACC has been fortunate that Clemson has stepped up while FSU/Miami have been down while schools like Oregon haven't stepped in to the same consistency in the Pac-12.

It's more that USC specifically is a particular enigma on the level of Texas or Notre Dame. There's no real comparison with a school that can legitimately deliver the #2 media market in the country (e.g. truly getting top level TV viewership unlike, say, Rutgers in the NYC market) that also happens to be the entertainment capital of the world. That makes it a particularly unique school with certain entrenched attributes that can't be replicated elsewhere.
06-23-2022 10:27 AM
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 10:27 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 10:08 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 09:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Yes, I understand the TV ratings argument, but that's also looking at USC being at its lowest point for the past 30 years while OU and Clemson have been at their respective highs.

Frank, I understand what you're saying about USC, but that exact same argument applies to Miami, who's last trip to the national championship was 3 years before USC's last.

The ACC, in theory, has 2 national brands (FSU and Miami) in football, 2 more regional+ brands (Clemson and Virginia Tech), and at least 4 national brands in basketball (UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville). If those brands would all perform up to their historic standards, there's simply no way the Pac-12 could touch the ACC's TV ratings, IMO.

I truly think the ACC's problems all stem from poor timing and poor negotiation on the part of the conference. ESPN is laughing all the way to the bank.

I agree with you on the value of schools like FSU and Miami. It's more that the ACC has been fortunate that Clemson has stepped up while FSU/Miami have been down while schools like Oregon haven't stepped in to the same consistency in the Pac-12.

It's more that USC specifically is a particular enigma on the level of Texas or Notre Dame. There's no real comparison with a school that can legitimately deliver the #2 media market in the country (e.g. truly getting top level TV viewership unlike, say, Rutgers in the NYC market) that also happens to be the entertainment capital of the world. That makes it a particularly unique school with certain entrenched attributes that can't be replicated elsewhere.

Familiarity is a good point. These people are familiar with Cal and Arizona St. and so they may give them a chance to rise based on markets and the size of their alumni base, even if Oklahoma St. and TCU currently do better in ratings. You see it on message boards where people constantly diss the R8 even though they have better attendance on average than the ACC or Pac 12 and have schools like TCU, KSU and Oklahoma St. that have top 20 (or close to it) performance levels since the beginning of the BCS era. And all of the R8 except Texas Tech (their best is #12) have a top 10 finish in the final AP poll at least once since the beginning of the BCS era, something many other P5s can't claim.

But while you talk about USC being at their lowest point in the last 30 years, they are lagging the current Big 12 with Texas at its lowest point in the last 90 years.
06-23-2022 11:25 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

2 decades, a quarter or more of a lifetime, isn't recency bias. It includes BCS and CFP. And it's been in more sports than football. Furthermore Bullet is correct about the PAC's numbers being solidly 5th in attendance and viewership, and Frank, that's in their own footprint, people aren't watching in California!

Recency bias may apply to the last 10 years worth of any championships for any schools, but at least in the SEC and Big 10 the decline in butts in the seats isn't so massive when a school hasn't done anything recently. Two decades isn't recent. In non COVID years the PAC averaged between 47-49 thousand in attendance at a football game. While on par with the ACC, it lagged 20-30 thousand behind the B10 and SEC respectively.

I submit that in most cases in media contracts that viewership, and to a lesser extent attendance, tend to reflect revenue. The ACC contract was so poor for so long that they were fourth in attendance, third in actual viewers and tied with the PAC for 5th in revenue and well behind the Big 12.

You are correct, I believe, that a new PAC contract may elevate the PAC's revenue ahead of the ACC's, and likely will pass the Big 12's as well, but that is due to contract timing, Big 12 losses, and not resurgence as a conference. That's just reality and there's no bias in it. Business is business!

Now, I have confidence in Kliavkoff's competence. I never had that in Scott who was overhyped and had little sense of reality. George could be a factor in ascendency of the conference and interest in it, but even then viewership and attendance will directly impact their revenue, both gate and media. Californians have to care about college sports, and I mean the Big 3, for improvement to show.

When the issue is your own fans' interest there's no bias involved and the problem is wholly on your own doorstep.
(This post was last modified: 06-23-2022 11:29 AM by JRsec.)
06-23-2022 11:27 AM
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

The current Pac-12 media deal was a 12-year deal that was negotiated in 2011. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff has aready indicated that the next media deal will be a shorter deal. So, for example, if they do a six year deal this time, they will be up again before the ACC is done with their agreement. If they do another six year deal, they will be up again when the ACC is up in 2036. Since they own 100% of their media content, they have all sorts of options open to them.

The Pac-12 has a football inventory of 80 games this season, with 54 conference games and 26 non-conference games. The current ESPN and FOX deals call for a mimimum of 22 games on each network. That leaves 36 games for the Pac-12 Network and that is too many. With a distribution of 15 million homes, the Pac-12 Network is a terrible option for 36 games. In a new media deal, some of these games can be moved to a third network (CBS, NBC, Turner) or to a streaming option such as Amazon or Apple.

There should still be football inventory for the Pac-12 Network and definitely basketball inventory for the network, along with other Olympic Sports. The Pac-12 could sell part of the network or all of the network, and just run their own network and improve distribution, which the previous commissioner complete screwed up. For 2019-2020, the Pac-12 Networks reported revenues of $118M and net operating expenses of $82M. The Pac-12 is operating seven HD channels and they only need one, so the expenses can be reduced significantly and revenue can increase with better distribution.
06-23-2022 11:58 AM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Actually, I’m super bullish on the Pac-12 rights *because* of all of those third tier football games going to market.

The primary business justification why all of these media companies are bidding up sports rights is because they all want to invest for their streaming services. That’s what Wall Street is demanding from all of them.

The content that has been on the Pac-12 Networks is *perfect* for streaming. The Big Ten *might* be willing to send one game that would have otherwise been on BTN over to Amazon as a streaming exclusive. In contrast, the Pac-12 seems to be willing to effectively shut the Pac-12 Networks down and send everything that was on there to streaming, which includes a ton of football and basketball games. ESPN+ has been showing a heck of a lot more games that are worse than Cal vs. UC-Davis. The amount of content that the Pac-12 is offering is actually massive compared to the Big Ten - they’ve got enough to move from the Pac-12 Networks to effectively create an entire sports department for Apple or Amazon or further cement ESPN+.

The market is showing that they’ll pay a premium for exclusive streaming rights and the Pac-12 has a lot of content available that they’re willing to put there. While the Pac-12 won’t be getting the same level of rights fees for their first tier TV contracts as the Big Ten and SEC, they’re going to get a huge boost from finally being able to monetize their Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights where they have been underpaid for the past decade due to the poor performance of the Pac-12 Networks. The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.

Time will tell Frank, but IMO you are overly optimistic on the future of the PAC networks if they remain in their current configuration.
I also think the streaming market for beach volleyball and water polo is limited.
06-23-2022 12:05 PM
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 12:05 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Actually, I’m super bullish on the Pac-12 rights *because* of all of those third tier football games going to market.

The primary business justification why all of these media companies are bidding up sports rights is because they all want to invest for their streaming services. That’s what Wall Street is demanding from all of them.

The content that has been on the Pac-12 Networks is *perfect* for streaming. The Big Ten *might* be willing to send one game that would have otherwise been on BTN over to Amazon as a streaming exclusive. In contrast, the Pac-12 seems to be willing to effectively shut the Pac-12 Networks down and send everything that was on there to streaming, which includes a ton of football and basketball games. ESPN+ has been showing a heck of a lot more games that are worse than Cal vs. UC-Davis. The amount of content that the Pac-12 is offering is actually massive compared to the Big Ten - they’ve got enough to move from the Pac-12 Networks to effectively create an entire sports department for Apple or Amazon or further cement ESPN+.

The market is showing that they’ll pay a premium for exclusive streaming rights and the Pac-12 has a lot of content available that they’re willing to put there. While the Pac-12 won’t be getting the same level of rights fees for their first tier TV contracts as the Big Ten and SEC, they’re going to get a huge boost from finally being able to monetize their Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights where they have been underpaid for the past decade due to the poor performance of the Pac-12 Networks. The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.

Time will tell Frank, but IMO you are overly optimistic on the future of the PAC networks if they remain in their current configuration.
I also think the streaming market for beach volleyball and water polo is limited.

What about softball and baseball? The sports that blow the doors of your beloved ACC schools.
06-23-2022 12:20 PM
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AztecEmpire Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
If the PAC adds 2-4 schools(B12) and sells all or a significant portion of their network they will be fine. Their model is not like any other conference and it was flat out the wrong way to go. Adding schools will give them more Tier 3 games to add to the network while ensuring no games of real value end up on the network going forward.
(This post was last modified: 06-23-2022 03:14 PM by AztecEmpire.)
06-23-2022 12:27 PM
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Post: #18
RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

I more or less made the same argument months ago and I got chastised for stating the Pac-12 has always been a solid #3 in the P5 pecking order. Sure, national championships in football and basketball are a barometer of conference success but what differentiates the “Conference of Champions” from the Big XII and ACC is every school in the conference is on the same page on conference matters. Academically and culturally every school is similar. There’s not a school looking for other options like we saw with Texas and Oklahoma since 2010 or two different agendas as we see from Tobacco Road and the football schools in the ACC. Those things make the Pac-12 a solid #3. Sure, they won’t ever get close to B1G and SEC money, I’m sure they came to that realization a long time ago. But they did get rid of Larry Scott and that was a clear sign they’re ready to move forward with Kliavkoff at the helm.
06-23-2022 12:36 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 11:27 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 09:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

I think the ACC made a poorly-time long-term TV deal. Whether that's an indictment of ACC leadership is an open question.

That being said, I'll continue to state that the Pac-12 remains perpetually underrated on this forum due to recency bias in the CFP era. The Pac-12 has multiple large affluent markets where it has a complete P5 monopoly, key marquee brands like USC and UCLA, top academics, and a lineup of institutional, cultural and geographic fits.

The Pac-12 has *always* been the #3 league in terms of long-term conference realignment value in my mind. This is just a matter of the TV rights market finally catching up to that reality.

2 decades, a quarter or more of a lifetime, isn't recency bias. It includes BCS and CFP. And it's been in more sports than football. Furthermore Bullet is correct about the PAC's numbers being solidly 5th in attendance and viewership, and Frank, that's in their own footprint, people aren't watching in California!

Recency bias may apply to the last 10 years worth of any championships for any schools, but at least in the SEC and Big 10 the decline in butts in the seats isn't so massive when a school hasn't done anything recently. Two decades isn't recent. In non COVID years the PAC averaged between 47-49 thousand in attendance at a football game. While on par with the ACC, it lagged 20-30 thousand behind the B10 and SEC respectively.

I submit that in most cases in media contracts that viewership, and to a lesser extent attendance, tend to reflect revenue. The ACC contract was so poor for so long that they were fourth in attendance, third in actual viewers and tied with the PAC for 5th in revenue and well behind the Big 12.

You are correct, I believe, that a new PAC contract may elevate the PAC's revenue ahead of the ACC's, and likely will pass the Big 12's as well, but that is due to contract timing, Big 12 losses, and not resurgence as a conference. That's just reality and there's no bias in it. Business is business!

Now, I have confidence in Kliavkoff's competence. I never had that in Scott who was overhyped and had little sense of reality. George could be a factor in ascendency of the conference and interest in it, but even then viewership and attendance will directly impact their revenue, both gate and media. Californians have to care about college sports, and I mean the Big 3, for improvement to show.

When the issue is your own fans' interest there's no bias involved and the problem is wholly on your own doorstep.

See - the bolded is really where I don't think we can make that assumption. I feel that attendance is an overrated metric in at least in terms of determining TV value.

Yes, the Big Ten and SEC have both the TV viewers and attendance numbers while also covering multiple major markets, so it makes sense that they're the clear top 2 financially among the leagues.

However, it's more muddled beyond them. Any advantage that the Big 12 has had for TV numbers in the CFP era were almost entirely due to Oklahoma and Texas, which are leaving. I agree that the Big 12 has had more consistent attendance top to bottom, but that was more reflected in their relatively better bowl deals compared to the Pac-12 and ACC much more than their TV deals (which once again were propped up by OU and UT).

Miami is a perfect example a school that doesn't have great attendance (at least relative to its brand and performance), yet it's a critically important TV draw. They're a much more valuable TV school than even most schools in the Big Ten and SEC: it would be shortsighted to call, say, Iowa and South Carolina as being more valuable than Miami simply based on those Big Ten and SEC schools consistently selling more tickets.

Likewise, we have to look at the Pac-12 like a TV executive. It's easy to see why the Big Ten and SEC dominate because they both have the combo of passion, viewers and markets, so let's put them aside. If I'm a TV executive, I'm not comparing the Pac-12 markets to rabid college towns/states, but rather the pro sports-focused markets of the East like Boston, NYC and Philly. On that front, the Pac-12 markets actually compare quite favorably. It's ridiculous to compare the intensity of the fandom in the Pac-12 to places like Birmingham and Columbus or even Lubbock - of course the Pac-12 loses that battle every time. What the Pac-12 has, though, are legitimate REAL TV markets with a ton of affluent highly-educated people like LA, SF, Seattle, Portland, Phoenix and Denver with similar demographics to the major East Coast cities but a much better college sports following *compared* to those East Coast cities.

LA is a better college sports market than NYC, SF is a better college sports market than Boston, and Seattle is a better college sports market than Philly. THAT is where the Pac-12 has a comparative advantage in relation to the ACC (whose expansion strategy for the last 20 years has been to break into those East Coast markets) and the Big 12 (who have solid attendance but weak potential TV audiences). When my business gets an extra boost from selling premium ads to premium audiences, there's a ton to like with the Pac-12 there.
(This post was last modified: 06-23-2022 12:45 PM by Frank the Tank.)
06-23-2022 12:42 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Whither the Pac-12 Networks?
(06-23-2022 11:58 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 08:24 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(06-23-2022 06:54 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The Pac-12 is going to be substantially ahead of the ACC as the #3 conference financially when this is all said and done.
If that happens — and tbh, I’ll believe it when I see it — what a devastating indictment that would be of the ACC’s financial strategy/leadership.

The current Pac-12 media deal was a 12-year deal that was negotiated in 2011. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff has aready indicated that the next media deal will be a shorter deal. So, for example, if they do a six year deal this time, they will be up again before the ACC is done with their agreement. If they do another six year deal, they will be up again when the ACC is up in 2036. Since they own 100% of their media content, they have all sorts of options open to them.

The Pac-12 has a football inventory of 80 games this season, with 54 conference games and 26 non-conference games. The current ESPN and FOX deals call for a mimimum of 22 games on each network. That leaves 36 games for the Pac-12 Network and that is too many. With a distribution of 15 million homes, the Pac-12 Network is a terrible option for 36 games. In a new media deal, some of these games can be moved to a third network (CBS, NBC, Turner) or to a streaming option such as Amazon or Apple.

There should still be football inventory for the Pac-12 Network and definitely basketball inventory for the network, along with other Olympic Sports. The Pac-12 could sell part of the network or all of the network, and just run their own network and improve distribution, which the previous commissioner complete screwed up. For 2019-2020, the Pac-12 Networks reported revenues of $118M and net operating expenses of $82M. The Pac-12 is operating seven HD channels and they only need one, so the expenses can be reduced significantly and revenue can increase with better distribution.
Given their dismal distribution, I suspect the network goes away and the winning bidder gets streaming rights.
06-23-2022 12:42 PM
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