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What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
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PeteTheChop Offline
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Post: #81
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

Believe you'll be proven right as a result of Kansas migrating to the B1G and the ACC getting carved up by the SEC and B1G.

SDSU is both an underrated and up-and-coming brand in a professional-sized market that no longer has an NFL nor NBA franchise.

IMO, the Aztecs are up there with Memphis as far as a lock to end up in a "Power-lite" conference before too long. Boise and potentially Colorado State, too, could have a chance to ride SDSU's coattails into the Big XII
06-25-2022 12:28 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #82
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 12:28 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

Believe you'll be proven right as a result of Kansas migrating to the B1G and the ACC getting carved up by the SEC and B1G.

SDSU is both an underrated and up-and-coming brand in a professional-sized market that no longer has an NFL nor NBA franchise.

IMO, the Aztecs are up there with Memphis as far as a lock to end up in a "Power-lite" conference before too long. Boise and potentially Colorado State, too, could have a chance to ride SDSU's coattails into the Big XII

Agree about SDSU being an increasingly strong candidate for a P5 invitation and about the idea that 2 or 3 MWC teams could be invited to join P5 conferences (Big 12, PAC-12) in the next few years. In addition to SDSU, BSU, and CSU, there may be 1 or 2 other potential MWC to P5 invitees at some point in the future.

However, I differ slightly on two points:

1. I wouldn't call the Big 12 a "power lite" conference.

2. CSU may also be considered as a possible future PAC-12 member (travel partner for Colorado & Utah).

.
06-25-2022 09:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #83
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 12:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:06 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Frank's point about BYU is spot-on.

In short, BYU could have the highest level of brand — yet still not get invited to any future variation of the Pac-12, SEC or Big Ten due to factors that are not present with other universities.

Again: I define brand in a much broader and more unconventional manner (placing more emphasis on "intangibles," for example) than many on this board do.

About the bolded, that may be true, but it also may be true that, absent any of the stigma about their Mormon faith, BYU simply doesn't have the brand value to be of much interest to those Power leagues. That's my view.

I mean, this is a program that went Independent and was making (IIRC) about $5m a year from its TV deal, and had a tie-in with the prestigious Independence Bowl in the Utah back yard of Shreveport, Louisiana.

That just doesn't scream "significant brand value" to me. And that is a measure that seems independent of conference stigma.

Now sure, someone can say "well what would Iowa get if they went Independent"? But to me that's beside the point, because Iowa is in fact in the B1G and is valued by the B1G at much more than that.

If one defines brand, in large part, by dollars, you are likely correct, Quo. Obviously, I don't take that approach in defining brand (though the example you give is an important factor among many characteristics, no doubt).

BYU offers all the trappings of a "power" athletics program overall: extremely nice facilities, well-paid and talented coaches, a large fan base, success in many sports, ability to lure top-notch student-athletes, etc. BYU athletics from top to bottom is every bit as "power" as my Vanderbilt Commodore athletics program (notwithstanding league affiliation). That's how I see it. Others do not.

No question, BYU has the "trappings" of power that you describe. They have all of those things.

And FWIW, I also agree that BYU is a "power" program in terms of brand value. IOWs, they are a top 64 program, which means their brand value falls within the range of power status, since there are approximately 64 power conference schools.

What I take issue with is where BYU would rank on that ladder. IIRC, this line of discussion began when I questioned the P-status of the nB12, and claimed that if we rank-ordered the value of the nB12 and B1G schools, the top 10 would come from the B1G, to which someone else replied that they thought BYU would be in the top 10, or proposed that they would be. That's what launched this discussion. I think I then made a small concession in that on second thought, I would have BYU tied at between 8-10 on that combined list.

So to me, it's not whether BYU is ahead of Vandy and other low-ranked P5, I agree they are. But I don't put them in the upper half of that top 64 range, or so. But others do.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2022 07:18 AM by quo vadis.)
06-26-2022 07:15 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #84
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

I agree that if we just rank-ordered the G5 in terms of general value, Boise and SDSU would likely top the list, ahead of any AAC schools including Memphis, USF and SMU.

But, the issue isn't really a general one, as it would likely be a specific P5 conference that would be adding a school. So to me, the rank would vary depending on what P5 was making the picks.

So e.g. if the PAC was doing so, Boise and SDSU would be strong 1 and 2, IMO, but if the ACC or B1G or SEC was doing the picking, the AAC schools would be ahead. The nB12 is tougher case, because they arguably aren't a power conference, and their geography means they could go either direction, though for historical reasons I would suspect that SMU would have the advantage over everyone.

So even though SDST and Boise are the most valuable, they probably have a lower overall chance of getting a P5 callup than the top AAC schools.

Though I think the chances for any of them are pretty negligible.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2022 07:24 AM by quo vadis.)
06-26-2022 07:23 AM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #85
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

MW tv ratings averages

Interesting.
I have AAC data for 2017-2020, without bowls added in (the numbers you cite includes bowls). Three of the remaining AAC teams are over 1 million viewers average, all with more games in the count than SDSU.
The fourth best of the legacy eight AAC teams is a ways back - even doing some back of the envelope to add in bowls, it's in Fresno State's range.

I don't know what pulling in 2016 might do for those four AAC teams, but at a glance it looks just fine for all.
06-26-2022 09:41 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #86
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-26-2022 07:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 12:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:06 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Frank's point about BYU is spot-on.

In short, BYU could have the highest level of brand — yet still not get invited to any future variation of the Pac-12, SEC or Big Ten due to factors that are not present with other universities.

Again: I define brand in a much broader and more unconventional manner (placing more emphasis on "intangibles," for example) than many on this board do.

About the bolded, that may be true, but it also may be true that, absent any of the stigma about their Mormon faith, BYU simply doesn't have the brand value to be of much interest to those Power leagues. That's my view.

I mean, this is a program that went Independent and was making (IIRC) about $5m a year from its TV deal, and had a tie-in with the prestigious Independence Bowl in the Utah back yard of Shreveport, Louisiana.

That just doesn't scream "significant brand value" to me. And that is a measure that seems independent of conference stigma.

Now sure, someone can say "well what would Iowa get if they went Independent"? But to me that's beside the point, because Iowa is in fact in the B1G and is valued by the B1G at much more than that.

If one defines brand, in large part, by dollars, you are likely correct, Quo. Obviously, I don't take that approach in defining brand (though the example you give is an important factor among many characteristics, no doubt).

BYU offers all the trappings of a "power" athletics program overall: extremely nice facilities, well-paid and talented coaches, a large fan base, success in many sports, ability to lure top-notch student-athletes, etc. BYU athletics from top to bottom is every bit as "power" as my Vanderbilt Commodore athletics program (notwithstanding league affiliation). That's how I see it. Others do not.

No question, BYU has the "trappings" of power that you describe. They have all of those things.

And FWIW, I also agree that BYU is a "power" program in terms of brand value. IOWs, they are a top 64 program, which means their brand value falls within the range of power status, since there are approximately 64 power conference schools.

What I take issue with is where BYU would rank on that ladder. IIRC, this line of discussion began when I questioned the P-status of the nB12, and claimed that if we rank-ordered the value of the nB12 and B1G schools, the top 10 would come from the B1G, to which someone else replied that they thought BYU would be in the top 10, or proposed that they would be. That's what launched this discussion. I think I then made a small concession in that on second thought, I would have BYU tied at between 8-10 on that combined list.

So to me, it's not whether BYU is ahead of Vandy and other low-ranked P5, I agree they are. But I don't put them in the upper half of that top 64 range, or so. But others do.


I'm basically with you on this, QV. I would place BYU football (specifically) in the 8-10 range on that hypothetical list of fB12 and B1G. However, I likely disagree with you regarding where BYU football would rank compared compared to all P5 programs. I actually might have the program at the bottom on the upper one-third. But I would need to take a look at all the P programs before making my decision "official."
06-26-2022 10:30 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #87
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-25-2022 09:54 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 12:28 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

Believe you'll be proven right as a result of Kansas migrating to the B1G and the ACC getting carved up by the SEC and B1G.

SDSU is both an underrated and up-and-coming brand in a professional-sized market that no longer has an NFL nor NBA franchise.

IMO, the Aztecs are up there with Memphis as far as a lock to end up in a "Power-lite" conference before too long. Boise and potentially Colorado State, too, could have a chance to ride SDSU's coattails into the Big XII

Agree about SDSU being an increasingly strong candidate for a P5 invitation and about the idea that 2 or 3 MWC teams could be invited to join P5 conferences (Big 12, PAC-12) in the next few years. In addition to SDSU, BSU, and CSU, there may be 1 or 2 other potential MWC to P5 invitees at some point in the future.

However, I differ slightly on two points:

1. I wouldn't call the Big 12 a "power lite" conference.

2. CSU may also be considered as a possible future PAC-12 member (travel partner for Colorado & Utah).

.


I would describe the fB12 ("f" for "future") football as "power lite" or "sufficiently power." fB12 football clearly will not be "full power" or a "conventional power" as it simply 1. will lack a blueblood program (which is one of the hallmark metrics of a true power football league) and 2. likely will not offer budgets, attendance, salary for head coaches, etc. comparable to the other other four main leagues will in football.
06-26-2022 10:35 AM
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AztecEmpire Offline
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Post: #88
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-26-2022 09:41 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

MW tv ratings averages

Interesting.
I have AAC data for 2017-2020, without bowls added in (the numbers you cite includes bowls). Three of the remaining AAC teams are over 1 million viewers average, all with more games in the count than SDSU.
The fourth best of the legacy eight AAC teams is a ways back - even doing some back of the envelope to add in bowls, it's in Fresno State's range.

I don't know what pulling in 2016 might do for those four AAC teams, but at a glance it looks just fine for all.
You have to consider that SDSU’s avg k/o time is probably hours later than AAC schools and is still average close to a million. Additionally the nB12 will place more importance on hoops than any other conf imo. Boise and SDSU are rivals with BYU too. It just makes too much sense. I’ve said for a while I think the best move is for the nB12 to add all 3 of SDSU, Boise, Memphis now that divisions don’t matter.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2022 10:45 AM by AztecEmpire.)
06-26-2022 10:36 AM
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BIgCatonProwl Offline
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Post: #89
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
Only place these mentioned schools could go to be A5 is the B12, Kirby Holcutt said AD at TT, they are not adding anymore members for the foreseeable future ( like 8-10 yrs) if ever. ( I paraphras but that's the gist) If they ever add it means they loss members.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2022 10:55 AM by BIgCatonProwl.)
06-26-2022 10:54 AM
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Post: #90
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-26-2022 10:54 AM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  Only place these mentioned schools could go to be A5 is the B12, Kirby Holcutt said AD at TT, they are not adding anymore members for the foreseeable future ( like 8-10 yrs) if ever. ( I paraphras but that's the gist) If they ever add it means they loss members.
If I had my way all this would be a moot point, have all 10 conferences play for a national championship, conference winners and wildcards all go to the playoffs
Makes me sick the way it is now
06-26-2022 11:10 AM
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No Bull Offline
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Post: #91
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:28 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Memphis and USF have the next best chances. Boise State and San Diego State would be next in line. Other than that I wouldn't hold out too much hope.

SMU has a shot. Imo
06-26-2022 11:17 AM
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AztecEmpire Offline
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Post: #92
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
It’s interesting how this is coming down to the best remaining WAC/SWC schools that have value still with a few exceptions.
06-26-2022 11:39 AM
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RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-21-2022 07:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

For a backfilling ACC, Cincinnati and USF would be first in line. Those are the other two schools the conference talked to when they added Louisville. By all accounts those discussions went well and generated a lot of good will.

Academic cred counts in the ACC, and USF is a research institution on course to join Florida State and UF as a 'preeminent' university in its home state.

UCF operates by a different philosophy, which why enrollment numbers are so big. The Orlando school takes a come-one-come-all approach more along the lines of Kansas State or Boise.
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Gitanole Offline
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Wink RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

In a better world, the Ragin' Cajuns play on TV every week.
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #95
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-26-2022 10:35 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 09:54 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 12:28 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:57 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Despite a poorly sourced medium article, SDSU actually has some of the highest ratings for nationally televised games at the G5 level. It’s going to be SDSU/Boise/Memphis who have a real chance but my money is on SDSU and Boise.

Believe you'll be proven right as a result of Kansas migrating to the B1G and the ACC getting carved up by the SEC and B1G.

SDSU is both an underrated and up-and-coming brand in a professional-sized market that no longer has an NFL nor NBA franchise.

IMO, the Aztecs are up there with Memphis as far as a lock to end up in a "Power-lite" conference before too long. Boise and potentially Colorado State, too, could have a chance to ride SDSU's coattails into the Big XII

Agree about SDSU being an increasingly strong candidate for a P5 invitation and about the idea that 2 or 3 MWC teams could be invited to join P5 conferences (Big 12, PAC-12) in the next few years. In addition to SDSU, BSU, and CSU, there may be 1 or 2 other potential MWC to P5 invitees at some point in the future.

However, I differ slightly on two points:

1. I wouldn't call the Big 12 a "power lite" conference.

2. CSU may also be considered as a possible future PAC-12 member (travel partner for Colorado & Utah).

.


I would describe the fB12 ("f" for "future") football as "power lite" or "sufficiently power." fB12 football clearly will not be "full power" or a "conventional power" as it simply 1. will lack a blueblood program (which is one of the hallmark metrics of a true power football league) and 2. likely will not offer budgets, attendance, salary for head coaches, etc. comparable to the other other four main leagues will in football.

I disagree. The final massey composite rankings over the past two seasons indicate that the teams in the new Big 12 constitute a full-fledged power conference:

final 2021-22 massey composite rankings:*

#5 Oklahoma State
#6 Cincinnati
#7 Baylor
#21 Houston
#27 BYU
#28 Iowa State

*Like the "new Big 12," the SEC had 6 teams in the top 30. The B10 had 8.


final 2020-21 rankings:^

#8 Cincinnati
#9 Iowa St.
#10 BYU
#14 Oklahoma St.
#25 TCU

^Like the new Big 12, the Big Ten and SEC had 5 teams in the top 30.



Summary: Both the SEC and the new Big 12 had an average of 5.5 teams in the final 2020-21 and 2021-22 massey composite top 30. The Big Ten had an average of 6.0 teams in the top 30.

Moreover, the average final massey composite ranking of the (12) new Big 12 teams (mean=38.92) was higher than the average massey composite ranking of the teams in the SEC (mean=40.52) and Big Ten (mean=42.77) in 2021-22.

.
(This post was last modified: Today 05:55 PM by Milwaukee.)
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #96
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-26-2022 10:30 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(06-26-2022 07:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 12:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-25-2022 10:06 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Frank's point about BYU is spot-on.

In short, BYU could have the highest level of brand — yet still not get invited to any future variation of the Pac-12, SEC or Big Ten due to factors that are not present with other universities.

Again: I define brand in a much broader and more unconventional manner (placing more emphasis on "intangibles," for example) than many on this board do.

About the bolded, that may be true, but it also may be true that, absent any of the stigma about their Mormon faith, BYU simply doesn't have the brand value to be of much interest to those Power leagues. That's my view.

I mean, this is a program that went Independent and was making (IIRC) about $5m a year from its TV deal, and had a tie-in with the prestigious Independence Bowl in the Utah back yard of Shreveport, Louisiana.

That just doesn't scream "significant brand value" to me. And that is a measure that seems independent of conference stigma.

Now sure, someone can say "well what would Iowa get if they went Independent"? But to me that's beside the point, because Iowa is in fact in the B1G and is valued by the B1G at much more than that.

If one defines brand, in large part, by dollars, you are likely correct, Quo. Obviously, I don't take that approach in defining brand (though the example you give is an important factor among many characteristics, no doubt).

BYU offers all the trappings of a "power" athletics program overall: extremely nice facilities, well-paid and talented coaches, a large fan base, success in many sports, ability to lure top-notch student-athletes, etc. BYU athletics from top to bottom is every bit as "power" as my Vanderbilt Commodore athletics program (notwithstanding league affiliation). That's how I see it. Others do not.

No question, BYU has the "trappings" of power that you describe. They have all of those things.

And FWIW, I also agree that BYU is a "power" program in terms of brand value. IOWs, they are a top 64 program, which means their brand value falls within the range of power status, since there are approximately 64 power conference schools.

What I take issue with is where BYU would rank on that ladder. IIRC, this line of discussion began when I questioned the P-status of the nB12, and claimed that if we rank-ordered the value of the nB12 and B1G schools, the top 10 would come from the B1G, to which someone else replied that they thought BYU would be in the top 10, or proposed that they would be. That's what launched this discussion. I think I then made a small concession in that on second thought, I would have BYU tied at between 8-10 on that combined list.

So to me, it's not whether BYU is ahead of Vandy and other low-ranked P5, I agree they are. But I don't put them in the upper half of that top 64 range, or so. But others do.


I'm basically with you on this, QV. I would place BYU football (specifically) in the 8-10 range on that hypothetical list of fB12 and B1G. However, I likely disagree with you regarding where BYU football would rank compared compared to all P5 programs. I actually might have the program at the bottom on the upper one-third. But I would need to take a look at all the P programs before making my decision "official."

BYU was ranked #10 in the nation in the final 2021-22 massey composite, and #27 in the final 2020-21 rankings.

Their average rank was #18.5. Only two Big 12 teams ranked higher than BYU (Cincinnati (avg. rank: #7.0) and Oklahoma State (avg. rank: #9.5).


.
.
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RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(Today 11:54 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 07:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

For a backfilling ACC, Cincinnati and USF would be first in line. Those are the other two schools the conference talked to when they added Louisville. By all accounts those discussions went well and generated a lot of good will.

Academic cred counts in the ACC, and USF is a research institution on course to join Florida State and UF as a 'preeminent' university in its home state.

UCF operates by a different philosophy, which why enrollment numbers are so big. The Orlando school takes a come-one-come-all approach more along the lines of Kansas State or Boise.
ACC would have little interest in Cindy IMO
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Location: Huntington, WV
Post: #98
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(Today 08:08 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  
(Today 11:54 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 07:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

For a backfilling ACC, Cincinnati and USF would be first in line. Those are the other two schools the conference talked to when they added Louisville. By all accounts those discussions went well and generated a lot of good will.

Academic cred counts in the ACC, and USF is a research institution on course to join Florida State and UF as a 'preeminent' university in its home state.

UCF operates by a different philosophy, which why enrollment numbers are so big. The Orlando school takes a come-one-come-all approach more along the lines of Kansas State or Boise.
ACC would have little interest in Cindy IMO

If the ACC were to lose Clemson and FSU to the SEC and perhaps UNC and UVA to the B1G, who would be left?

USF to replace FSU?

Would they have the clout at this point to lure Cincy away from the B12? Or UCF?

Do they make a play on Memphis or does Memphis hold out for a B12 invite?

Who else is practical? Navy? Maybe? ECU?

They could be in a real pickle.
(This post was last modified: Today 08:15 PM by THUNDERStruck73.)
Today 08:14 PM
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