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What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
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whittx Offline
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Post: #21
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 07:49 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:19 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets

5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?

3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

You listed too many, in my opinion. The ones in bold are the ones who have an actual shot.

Think you have it right. SD state, Col ST. Boise, Memphis, USF, SMU. that is it and each school is at best 20% chance. Unlikely more than 2 go anywhere.
The only MAC school with a prayer of joining this group is Buffalo. Unless the Bills leave town, with much of the Bills based spending diverted into UB athletics, this probably won't happen in a 10 year timeframe.
06-22-2022 10:28 AM
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TexanMark Online
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Post: #22
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets
5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?
3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

Pretty much spot on.

Rice would only be viable to the Big 12 if Houston left for another conference.
06-22-2022 11:13 AM
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TexanMark Online
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Post: #23
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 10:28 AM)whittx Wrote:  
(06-22-2022 07:49 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:19 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  In this case, let's define "decent" as anything at a 20% or better shot ...

The American
1. Memphis (ACC, Big XII): Next in line
2. UConn (ACC): Give up Big East for reconfigured ACC?
3. USF (ACC, Big XII): On-campus stadium would be a difference maker
4. SMU (Big 12): SWC pedigree + deep pockets

5. Temple (ACC): Only if ACC is gutted by B1G and/or S-E-C ... and still not a sure thing
6. Tulane (Big XII, ACC): Only if Big XII goes beyond 12
7. UTSA (Big XII): A sleeper pick?
8. Rice (Big XII): see No. 4 above

MWC
1. San Diego State (Big XII, Pac-12): Are great market, new stadium, solid hoops program enough?
2. Boise State (Big 12, Pac-12): Lower in the pecking order than some think?

3. Colorado State (Big XII): Would need back-filling B1G XII to break right

Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA
none, zero, nada

You listed too many, in my opinion. The ones in bold are the ones who have an actual shot.

Think you have it right. SD state, Col ST. Boise, Memphis, USF, SMU. that is it and each school is at best 20% chance. Unlikely more than 2 go anywhere.
The only MAC school with a prayer of joining this group is Buffalo. Unless the Bills leave town, with much of the Bills based spending diverted into UB athletics, this probably won't happen in a 10 year timeframe.

The Bills would have to leave...the Bulls has a fanbase in Erie County...pretty much ends at Batavia.
06-22-2022 11:15 AM
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TexanMark Online
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Post: #24
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.
06-22-2022 11:17 AM
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TexanMark Online
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Post: #25
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-21-2022 07:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 07:13 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  I am not so sure that the BIG12 will expand unless someone leaves:

Central Florida gets the Big 12 into the Florida market and has a massive enrollment of more than 70,000 students – which translates into lots of future alumni and TV eyeballs.

Houston is based in the fourth largest city in the United States and will offer the Big 12 a foothold in a key market it had lost with the departure of Texas A&M.

Cincinnati offers a bridge to the Midwest in a football-rich area, along with a natural rival for West Virginia. And the Bearcats became the first group of five team to reach the College Football Playoff this past season.

If the ACC were to backfill due to the most probable departures, is it likely Cincinnati and UCF would relocate to a more geographically convenient conference?

Yup...and depending on who would leave....UConn, USF and Memphis are probably involved in the discussion too.

I would actually put WVU as the #1 target though.
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2022 11:20 AM by TexanMark.)
06-22-2022 11:19 AM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
I think Memphis and USF have the next best chances. Boise State and San Diego State would be next in line. Other than that I wouldn't hold out too much hope.
06-22-2022 11:28 AM
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PeteTheChop Online
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Post: #27
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

Yeah, I used to be a lot more bullish on UNLV as a promising candidate for the Pac-12/"P-5" level a few years back, but that just seems like a possibility that has come and gone.

At some point, a school has to have something, anything, besides a seemingly great market: Two winning seasons in football since joining the MWC in 2000 and no NCAA Tournament trips since 2013 doesn't get it.

The Rebels as the city's top sports "franchise" was a selling point once upon a time, but now with the NFL and NHL in town and very possibly the NBA, MLB and MLS on the way, well ...

UNLV seems destined — especially with a flailing football program and continued mediocrity in basketball — to be an afterthought on the Vegas sports scene.
06-22-2022 11:47 AM
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GoBuckeyes1047 Online
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Post: #28
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:28 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Memphis and USF have the next best chances. Boise State and San Diego State would be next in line. Other than that I wouldn't hold out too much hope.

I think this is accurate with SMU a close 5th.

I may be a loner in thinking this, but I think UAB and Fresno St. could be longshots. UAB probably in the Rice-UTSA-Tulane range of the American schools, and Fresno St. probably a close 5th among Mountain West schools.
06-22-2022 11:57 AM
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PeteTheChop Online
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Post: #29
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:57 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  I may be a loner in thinking this, but I think UAB and Fresno St. could be longshots. UAB probably in the Rice-UTSA-Tulane range of the American schools, and Fresno St. probably a close 5th among Mountain West schools.

Yeah, it appears that way on paper.

UAB with its brand new stadium, Top 50 market and football-obsessed state seems like a recipe for growth, but the presence of Alabama and (to a lesser extent) Auburn creates the ultimate glass ceiling.

Probably isn't another state (Mississippi, maybe?) where the SEC and SEC Football in particular so completely dominate the landscape. And those in charge certainly aren't interested in that gap narrowing.

Fresno looks intriguing on paper, too, but for better or worse, a lot of folks in California (and elsewhere) probably look at Fresno the way Ohioans view a place like Youngstown if that makes sense.

In other words, "let's find someplace better" ...

I don't much like that thinking (I was born and raised in North Florida for God's sake), but we're talking about college administrators and their TV executive buddies picking who they want to be in their exclusive clubs.
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2022 01:41 PM by PeteTheChop.)
06-22-2022 01:40 PM
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Post: #30
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

I don't necessarily believe that this is a bad thing because the fact that Vegas is getting pro sports franchises in such rapid succession is a reflection of the market growing like gangbusters. (Granted, as a someone that lives in a top tier pro sports market, I absolutely despise schools using pro sports competition as an excuse. Great sports fans should be able to handle both pro sports fandom and college sports fandom at the same time.) Note that most of the Pac-12 schools are located directly in major markets - they don't have the level of college town separation that you see in most of the Big Ten and SEC. The State of Nevada is the 2nd largest state by population that doesn't have a P5 school. (#1 is Connecticut, but at least UConn is in the Big East.) On a pure market basis, the Las Vegas market and the State of Nevada overall is actually a huge gap for the P5 leagues collectively.

Frankly, the biggest issue for UNLV isn't the sports or market side, but rather whether they could get their academics to a level where it would be a viable Pac-12 candidate. THAT is much tougher than any challenge UNLV will face on the field/court or competing with pro sports in their market.

UNLV could still be a viable Big 12 candidate in any event. They certainly make a lot of sense if the Big 12 were to decide to fill in the Western flank with San Diego State, Boise State and/or Colorado State (which would make BYU less of a geographic outlier). Essentially, the Big 12 would become a coast-to-coast league.
06-22-2022 02:11 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #31
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
Further to my last point, I'm a little more bullish on the MWC schools getting an invite to a P5 league (and when I say "P5" here, it really means the Big 12) because they fill in some fairly valuable markets (such as San Diego and Las Vegas) that aren't otherwise covered by competing P5 leagues. The AAC options are going directly into SEC and ACC territory where the Big 12 will never be better than #2 or even #3 in those areas. If I'm the Big 12, I'd rather actually *own* some major markets in the West as opposed to treading into highly competitive ground in the East, particularly when combining those schools with BYU could make a logical Western pod that would mitigate the geographic spread of the league.
06-22-2022 02:20 PM
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Post: #32
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
(06-22-2022 02:11 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

I don't necessarily believe that this is a bad thing because the fact that Vegas is getting pro sports franchises in such rapid succession is a reflection of the market growing like gangbusters. (Granted, as a someone that lives in a top tier pro sports market, I absolutely despise schools using pro sports competition as an excuse. Great sports fans should be able to handle both pro sports fandom and college sports fandom at the same time.) Note that most of the Pac-12 schools are located directly in major markets - they don't have the level of college town separation that you see in most of the Big Ten and SEC. The State of Nevada is the 2nd largest state by population that doesn't have a P5 school. (#1 is Connecticut, but at least UConn is in the Big East.) On a pure market basis, the Las Vegas market and the State of Nevada overall is actually a huge gap for the P5 leagues collectively.

Frankly, the biggest issue for UNLV isn't the sports or market side, but rather whether they could get their academics to a level where it would be a viable Pac-12 candidate. THAT is much tougher than any challenge UNLV will face on the field/court or competing with pro sports in their market.

UNLV could still be a viable Big 12 candidate in any event. They certainly make a lot of sense if the Big 12 were to decide to fill in the Western flank with San Diego State, Boise State and/or Colorado State (which would make BYU less of a geographic outlier). Essentially, the Big 12 would become a coast-to-coast league.

Yeah but it is a Sun Belt transient state that will have all the pro sports as a distraction for a g5 team. It's gonna be an uphill climb.
06-22-2022 02:28 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #33
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 02:28 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(06-22-2022 02:11 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

I don't necessarily believe that this is a bad thing because the fact that Vegas is getting pro sports franchises in such rapid succession is a reflection of the market growing like gangbusters. (Granted, as a someone that lives in a top tier pro sports market, I absolutely despise schools using pro sports competition as an excuse. Great sports fans should be able to handle both pro sports fandom and college sports fandom at the same time.) Note that most of the Pac-12 schools are located directly in major markets - they don't have the level of college town separation that you see in most of the Big Ten and SEC. The State of Nevada is the 2nd largest state by population that doesn't have a P5 school. (#1 is Connecticut, but at least UConn is in the Big East.) On a pure market basis, the Las Vegas market and the State of Nevada overall is actually a huge gap for the P5 leagues collectively.

Frankly, the biggest issue for UNLV isn't the sports or market side, but rather whether they could get their academics to a level where it would be a viable Pac-12 candidate. THAT is much tougher than any challenge UNLV will face on the field/court or competing with pro sports in their market.

UNLV could still be a viable Big 12 candidate in any event. They certainly make a lot of sense if the Big 12 were to decide to fill in the Western flank with San Diego State, Boise State and/or Colorado State (which would make BYU less of a geographic outlier). Essentially, the Big 12 would become a coast-to-coast league.

Yeah but it is a Sun Belt transient state that will have all the pro sports as a distraction for a g5 team. It's gonna be an uphill climb.

I understand that critique of UNLV in a vacuum.

However, we're comparing UNLV to the other G5 alternatives. For example, the AAC candidates that we're mentioning here are also largely transient Sun Belt states with pro sports competition on top of heavy in-state P5 competition from the SEC and/or ACC. The one mentioned that isn't in the Sun Belt - Temple - has the heaviest pro sports competition of them all. This isn't like the new AAC/old C-USA approach of getting large market schools that we realistically know will never be the most popular college team in town (much less dealing with pro sports competition): in UNLV's case, they are IT when it comes to college sports in a large and fast-growing market. That has value to me in *comparison* to the other candidates mentioned. San Diego State is in a similar boat. They might never be headliners in the Big 12, but they make sense to me when looking at school #13 or #14.

Separately, in going back to the OP, I actually personally like Memphis a lot, but they seem to be the G5 equivalent of West Virginia in conference realignment: they always *seem* to be at the top of the list or "next in line" for whatever better spot opens up... but when that better spot actually *does* open up, there's always someone that has performed better lately and/or is in a better market and/or has better academics. For example, a simply mediocre USF program probably vaults to the top of the list of AAC candidates to move up due to its location and academics.
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2022 04:21 PM by Frank the Tank.)
06-22-2022 04:19 PM
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Post: #34
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 04:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  in UNLV's case, they are IT when it comes to college sports in a large and fast-growing market. That has value to me in *comparison* to the other candidates mentioned. San Diego State is in a similar boat. They might never be headliners in the Big 12, but they make sense to me when looking at school #13 or #14.

Separately, in going back to the OP, I actually personally like Memphis a lot, but they seem to be the G5 equivalent of West Virginia in conference realignment: they always *seem* to be at the top of the list or "next in line" for whatever better spot opens up... but when that better spot actually *does* open up, there's always someone that has performed better lately and/or is in a better market and/or has better academics. For example, a simply mediocre USF program probably vaults to the top of

Since you mentioned UNLV and Memphis:

US News rankings are mostly bogus, but to the extent anyone cares about them, Memphis and UNLV are tied in US News' rankings of colleges and universities, so they are in similar situations with any P-conference decisionmakers who care about such things.

Of course, the ability of a school to increase the per-member TV value of its possible new conference should be the #1 criterion by far, but AFAIK, no TV network has offered to give a P conference mountains of new money in exchange for inviting any of the schools mentioned in this thread.
06-22-2022 04:45 PM
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Post: #35
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
I think it's a rather short list
Memphis and SMU probably have the best shot.
USF looked to be poised to make the jump a while back, but they've been pretty underwhelming lately

SD State is a huge maybe
Boise has name recognition and would be a good add
From my understanding PAC has a higher academic profile, and I'm not sure if either could make that cut. SD State would be on an island in the Big12, Boise could fit in pretty well there though

Those are all short term moves though. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the G5 shakes out after this round of realignment is finished.
After Memohis +1 moves from the AAC, I could see one or two from the SBC make a push within a decade after that
06-22-2022 05:24 PM
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Post: #36
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5 conference?
I think an ideal structure for the current Big12 if they make the move to 16 is a 4 school pod out west, 4 school pod out east, 4 school Texas pod and 4 school central. This would help reduce travel for other sports and fits with the top schools they would likely consider adding.

Something like:

West: BYU, Boise St., SDSU, UNLV? (not really sure who would be the best 4th team)

East: WV, UC, UCF, Memphis

Central: Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., OK St.

Texas: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston


Texas and the Central schools would still be the core of the conference.
06-22-2022 08:03 PM
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Post: #37
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 11:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:24 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:13 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  It's a long shot, but UNLV to PAC12 has some potential. UNLV's biggest issue is on the field, otherwise they have the right profile.

I'd agree that UNLV would be up there compared with most of either the AAC or MWC. Still don't think it's a high enough percentage to meet that 20% or better shot, but comparatively better than most.

UNLV could be in play...however, Vegas in the next 10 years will probably have all four major pro sports franchises. So UNLV will be considered 2nd fiddle. Too many new transplants too with divided loyalties.

Vegas in the next ten years might dry up and blow away. Imagine a metro of 2.8 million people, located in the middle of a desert, which lacks sufficient domestic water to meet the basic needs of its residents.
06-22-2022 08:14 PM
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Post: #38
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
Since Utah in 2008, all non-power callups to a power conference have been as backfill. Nobody has proactively done it.

So the real question is, do you think the P4 will get raided and lose members in the foreseeable future?

I do not.
06-22-2022 08:15 PM
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Post: #39
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
(06-22-2022 08:03 PM)AztecNation Wrote:  I think an ideal structure for the current Big12 if they make the move to 16 is a 4 school pod out west, 4 school pod out east, 4 school Texas pod and 4 school central. This would help reduce travel for other sports and fits with the top schools they would likely consider adding.

Something like:

West: BYU, Boise St., SDSU, UNLV? (not really sure who would be the best 4th team)

East: WV, UC, UCF, Memphis

Central: Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., OK St.

Texas: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston


Texas and the Central schools would still be the core of the conference.

Honestly, if it's not UNLV or Colorado St., it may have to be SMU and pair the 5 Texas schools with the 3 west schools and the central with the east or just give all 16 teams 3 protected annual rivalries.
06-22-2022 08:33 PM
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #40
RE: What G5's have a "decent" chance of getting an all-sports invite to a P5...
.

Different P5 conferences seem to have different criteria for adding teams:

Big Ten: Rutgers & Maryland - mainly added due to market location.

SEC: Texas & Oklahoma - UT for market, Oklahoma for teams' strength.

Big 12: BYU, UC, UCF, & UH. 4 schools added for teams' strength.

PAC-12: Colorado for market, Utah for team strength.

Summary:

4 schools added mainly due to market location.

6 schools added mainly due to team strength.

.

Questions:

Which potential members have both market location & team strength?

* Memphis

* San Diego State

* SMU (but it shares a market with an existing P5 school)

Which have one or the other, but not both?

* USF

* Boise State (but it has a national following)

* Colorado State (arguably, has neither market nor team strength)

.
06-22-2022 08:37 PM
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