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P5 realignment by 2025, overview
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Skyhawk Offline
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P5 realignment by 2025, overview
Ok, so reading so much of articles out there in the internet, and posts here there and everywhere in social media, and of course various people's opinions on this board, here's what I think is most likely by 2025.

I think there will be some movement among the P5, but not a lot, and while content is king in the new streaming era, we're also seeing that cable, and broadcast tv & radio are far from dead. So it's not looking like the media companies are pushing for super conferences. the prices are just getting into nosebleed prices. If anything, I think 10-20 years from now I think we may see conference splits into smaller regional conferences with inter-conference scheduling. But that's beyond the scope of this post.

I think on the near term, the focus for realignment is going to be more about moves to ensure more stability, money potentials, cultural/institutional fit, and regional rivalries.

As for GoRs, I think everyone is waiting to see how TX and OK address that with the B12, the same as when they waited to see how the situation with Maryland would end up. So I'm not taking GoRs into account, except that I think that they also will slow movement a bit - I think there's only so much that schools and conferences want to deal with.

I think most agree that if there is any movement in the P5 on the near term, it will likely be done by the B10 and SEC raiding the B12 and ACC.

Missouri really seems the only possible outlier in that they "could" join the B10. I really think we'll only see movement along those lines in the near term depending on how unhappy they are with being in the same conference/division with texas. I'd group tamu with them being as, or even more, unhappy about it (they apparently leaked the story after all), remembering that both schools left the B12, but I think tamu has several long-term regional rivalries which can help them decide to stay in the SEC. Missouri, not-so-much. So we'll see. If any movement happens it'll likely be after TX joins the SEC.

So starting with the ACC then, for all the talk about it, I don't think the NC cluster of schools is leaving the ACC. So that stops that set of dominoes.

I also think ND is likely fine where it is in the ACC. They get old big east rivals, as well as basketball bluebloods all while being able to maintain the appearance of football independence and the ability to have their own football media contract. B10 is very unlikely to offer that, and though the new big east could be possible, I think ND will stay with the ACC unless it really falls apart.

I think the "unstable" part of the conference is FL state and Clemson. They've made it clear they want to go to the SEC. And if FL state goes, there is a possibility that Miami could also get an invite to the SEC, to bring the Florida Cup in-conference.

Virginia really seems the only other "possible". The B10 might take VA as a partner to KS from the B12. Especially if Missouri is not on the table. But the B10 has been fine with staying at odd membership before (11 with Penn state). and VA doesn't seem to be pushing for this.

So let's say that once the TX/OK is resolved, B10 takes Kansas.

And the SEC takes 3 schools from the ACC - Clemson, Florida state, and Miami.

This drops the ACC to 12 (11 plus ND). I think they'll add 4 to go to 16, focusing on getting the schools east of the Mississippi river - ACC adds UCF, USF, Cinn, WVA. This keeps their florida presence, and beefs up the old big east rivalries. Going forward, this gives the conference greater stability and it's unlikely anyone else leaves unless the conference falls apart.

So due to the above B12 lost KS, UCF, Cinn, and WVA. This removes the B12 from east of the Mississippi river, and takes some options off the table, and so makes the choice easier to accept more western schools. So B12 adds Boise state, Memphis, SMU, and Rice. Rice is an easy 4th choice, Even though it doesn't bring a new media area, it is a former SWC member, and has regional rivalries with several members already. And when you think about it, is also, sort of the vanderbilt of the situation - academics, etc. SMU and Rice bring regional rivals, institutional fit and stability. Boise state is likely to never get a PAC invite, and joining the B12 is presumably better than staying in the MWC. I know that there are those who see Colorado state as a good fit due to geographically linking BYU with the rest of the B12. But I don't think that's enough for them to get an invite. And besides, I don't think that Colorado state is leaving their regional rivals in the MWC for the new B12.

I think at this point, with the B10 at 15 and SEC at 19, Missouri might well make the move to the B10. But I think it would need to be handled carefully. And I don't think they'd be interested in too much of an intermediate pay cut, even if they gain more down the line. So for regional rivalries and possibly due to inter- and intra- conference politics, I do think it's possible that Missouri might well go to the B10. But not likely (yet).

So after all the moves:

Big 10: - 15
gains Kansas

SEC: - 19
gains Clemson, Florida state, and Miami

ACC: - 16
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Notre Dame (partial football)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina state
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
UCF
USF

Big 12: - 12 (6 in texas)
Iowa state
Kansas state
Memphis
Oklahoma state
Boise state
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Houston
Rice
Texas Tech

I think these all look pretty stable, and if this were to happen, unless/until something rather dramatic (and unlikely) happens (like ohio state, NC, or USC), I think this would pretty much end P5 realignment for the near future.

What do you all think?
06-21-2022 07:52 AM
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Cruhawk Offline
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Post: #2
RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
I think the B1G and SEC will both eventually carve up the ACC once either the GoR expires or some workaround is found.

I could also potentially see the B1G and PAC-12 coming up with some sort of partnership/more-formalized alliance since they do both seem to share some cultural similarities (scheduling agreements, bowl tie-ins, expanding the academic consortiums of both conferences, maybe future joint media deals?)
06-21-2022 08:00 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
I think P5 realignment has already ended for the near future barring some breakaway from the NCAA. The key to your realignment would IMO be movement of Clemson, FSU and Miami to the SEC and the ACC contract with ESPN makes that extremely unlikely. Without that, no other dominoes need to fall.
06-21-2022 08:03 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 08:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  I think P5 realignment has already ended for the near future barring some breakaway from the NCAA. The key to your realignment would IMO be movement of Clemson, FSU and Miami to the SEC and the ACC contract with ESPN makes that extremely unlikely. Without that, no other dominoes need to fall.

Well, I think KS is going to the B10 after the TX/OK thing is resolved, regardless.

And once the Big10 shows weakness in the B12 GoR, the ACC may well take the opportunity to take Cinn, WVA, and UCF, at the very least. Even if fla state and clemson don't leave now, it's pretty clear they eventually will, and it's better to plan for that, rather than waiting til after a new B12 GoR which could be uglier to get out of, or have more issues. And to entice UCF to make the move, adding USF as well.

Or as an alternate, with no SEC moves, ACC doesn't try to add UCF or USF, only adding Cinn and WVA. So Big 12 only lost 3, So adds USF to partner with UCF, and still adds SMU and Rice for regional rivalries and stability. If they keep florida schools, I don't think they add Boise state.

In that case, Memphis would be the backfill for ACC or B12 if another domino moves, such as if the SEC decided to only take clemson, and "let" Missouri go to the B10.

So I dunno - I think this could happen even without the SEC moves.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 08:34 AM by Skyhawk.)
06-21-2022 08:16 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 08:16 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Well, I think KS is going to the B10 after the TX/OK thing is resolved, regardless.

...

I've never understood opinions like this. The B1G could have invited Kansas at any time since the Nebraska move and they would have come. But the B1G did not. The OUT move is not holding anything up. If they wanted Kansas they could invite them today.
But they really have no reason to. They don't need a small state. They don't need a terrible football program (even Rice has a winning record against Kansas, and a two game winning streak going).
06-21-2022 08:56 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 08:56 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 08:16 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Well, I think KS is going to the B10 after the TX/OK thing is resolved, regardless.

...

I've never understood opinions like this. The B1G could have invited Kansas at any time since the Nebraska move and they would have come. But the B1G did not. The OUT move is not holding anything up. If they wanted Kansas they could invite them today.
But they really have no reason to. They don't need a small state. They don't need a terrible football program (even Rice has a winning record against Kansas, and a two game winning streak going).

GoR.

It went right in place after the NE move.

And if Big10 accepted Kansas now, they would get hit with whatever "revenge" penalties the B12 wants to excise against TX/OU.

leaving a conference is a negotiation, and so, it is worth it to the Big10 to wait to see how that plays out. Plus the longer they wait, the closer to the end of the current GoR.

I take "rumours" which we hear/see all over the internet with a grain of salt, but the ones about Kansas being told by the B10 to wait til after the TX situation resolves, just sounds rather likely to me.
06-21-2022 09:05 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
Assuming Kansas to B1G and Clemson / Florida St / Miami to SEC, I don’t see Tobacco Road / Notre Dame being “cool” with those 4 joining the ACC.
06-21-2022 09:30 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 09:30 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Assuming Kansas to B1G and Clemson / Florida St / Miami to SEC, I don’t see Tobacco Road / Notre Dame being “cool” with those 4 joining the ACC.

Well, those 4 include the 2 next best florida teams to replace the 2 that left.

And I don't see where they would have an issue with Cinn, especially with recent performance.

I might see your point in a WVA argument, but my question then would be: Who else would they pick of what's available? Memphis? I don't see much else that comes close to what they might want.

Would be interested in who you think they would go for instead.
06-21-2022 09:43 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 09:43 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 09:30 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Assuming Kansas to B1G and Clemson / Florida St / Miami to SEC, I don’t see Tobacco Road / Notre Dame being “cool” with those 4 joining the ACC.

Well, those 4 include the 2 next best florida teams to replace the 2 that left.

And I don't see where they would have an issue with Cinn, especially with recent performance.

I might see your point in a WVA argument, but my question then would be: Who else would they pick of what's available? Memphis? I don't see much else that comes close to what they might want.

Would be interested in who you think they would go for instead.

I’m fairly confident there’s a major rift between Notre Dame and West Virginia - being that the Irish refuse to play them. I also believe Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, and maybe a couple others would leave - and would have at least one option - before staying in THAT version of the ACC.
06-21-2022 09:50 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
The SEC doesn't need Miami if they have Florida and FSU. It's a private school (for the SEC, one is enough) with an up and down fan base without control of its own football facility.

South Carolina will draw 80,000 whether the Gamecocks go 9-2 or 2-9. Protracted 2-9 seasons in Miami and they'll be drawing 20,000 a game, something the SEC does not want to see in any school, even Vandy.
06-21-2022 09:50 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 09:50 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  The SEC doesn't need Miami if they have Florida and FSU. It's a private school (for the SEC, one is enough) with an up and down fan base without control of its own football facility.

South Carolina will draw 80,000 whether the Gamecocks go 9-2 or 2-9. Protracted 2-9 seasons in Miami and they'll be drawing 20,000 a game, something the SEC does not want to see in any school, even Vandy.

In an NIL future, if Miami can sustain even above-average success, they would be a good add for the SEC.
06-21-2022 09:51 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
Big 10 gains Kansas, Missouri, UVA, Duke, UNC and Notre Dame to get to 20.
SEC gains FSU, Clemson, Miami, VTech and NC State to get to 20.

I think that or something really close to it is the end game for the Big 10 and SEC.

ACC becomes the Old Big East / Raycom 16 sort of hybrid thingy...
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 10:03 AM by b2b.)
06-21-2022 09:57 AM
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Tigerblud Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 07:52 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Ok, so reading so much of articles out there in the internet, and posts here there and everywhere in social media, and of course various people's opinions on this board, here's what I think is most likely by 2025.

I think there will be some movement among the P5, but not a lot, and while content is king in the new streaming era, we're also seeing that cable, and broadcast tv & radio are far from dead. So it's not looking like the media companies are pushing for super conferences. the prices are just getting into nosebleed prices. If anything, I think 10-20 years from now I think we may see conference splits into smaller regional conferences with inter-conference scheduling. But that's beyond the scope of this post.

I think on the near term, the focus for realignment is going to be more about moves to ensure more stability, money potentials, cultural/institutional fit, and regional rivalries.

As for GoRs, I think everyone is waiting to see how TX and OK address that with the B12, the same as when they waited to see how the situation with Maryland would end up. So I'm not taking GoRs into account, except that I think that they also will slow movement a bit - I think there's only so much that schools and conferences want to deal with.

I think most agree that if there is any movement in the P5 on the near term, it will likely be done by the B10 and SEC raiding the B12 and ACC.

Missouri really seems the only possible outlier in that they "could" join the B10. I really think we'll only see movement along those lines in the near term depending on how unhappy they are with being in the same conference/division with texas. I'd group tamu with them being as, or even more, unhappy about it (they apparently leaked the story after all), remembering that both schools left the B12, but I think tamu has several long-term regional rivalries which can help them decide to stay in the SEC. Missouri, not-so-much. So we'll see. If any movement happens it'll likely be after TX joins the SEC.

So starting with the ACC then, for all the talk about it, I don't think the NC cluster of schools is leaving the ACC. So that stops that set of dominoes.

I also think ND is likely fine where it is in the ACC. They get old big east rivals, as well as basketball bluebloods all while being able to maintain the appearance of football independence and the ability to have their own football media contract. B10 is very unlikely to offer that, and though the new big east could be possible, I think ND will stay with the ACC unless it really falls apart.

I think the "unstable" part of the conference is FL state and Clemson. They've made it clear they want to go to the SEC. And if FL state goes, there is a possibility that Miami could also get an invite to the SEC, to bring the Florida Cup in-conference.

Virginia really seems the only other "possible". The B10 might take VA as a partner to KS from the B12. Especially if Missouri is not on the table. But the B10 has been fine with staying at odd membership before (11 with Penn state). and VA doesn't seem to be pushing for this.

So let's say that once the TX/OK is resolved, B10 takes Kansas.

And the SEC takes 3 schools from the ACC - Clemson, Florida state, and Miami.

This drops the ACC to 12 (11 plus ND). I think they'll add 4 to go to 16, focusing on getting the schools east of the Mississippi river - ACC adds UCF, USF, Cinn, WVA. This keeps their florida presence, and beefs up the old big east rivalries. Going forward, this gives the conference greater stability and it's unlikely anyone else leaves unless the conference falls apart.

So due to the above B12 lost KS, UCF, Cinn, and WVA. This removes the B12 from east of the Mississippi river, and takes some options off the table, and so makes the choice easier to accept more western schools. So B12 adds Boise state, Memphis, SMU, and Rice. Rice is an easy 4th choice, Even though it doesn't bring a new media area, it is a former SWC member, and has regional rivalries with several members already. And when you think about it, is also, sort of the vanderbilt of the situation - academics, etc. SMU and Rice bring regional rivals, institutional fit and stability. Boise state is likely to never get a PAC invite, and joining the B12 is presumably better than staying in the MWC. I know that there are those who see Colorado state as a good fit due to geographically linking BYU with the rest of the B12. But I don't think that's enough for them to get an invite. And besides, I don't think that Colorado state is leaving their regional rivals in the MWC for the new B12.

I think at this point, with the B10 at 15 and SEC at 19, Missouri might well make the move to the B10. But I think it would need to be handled carefully. And I don't think they'd be interested in too much of an intermediate pay cut, even if they gain more down the line. So for regional rivalries and possibly due to inter- and intra- conference politics, I do think it's possible that Missouri might well go to the B10. But not likely (yet).

So after all the moves:

Big 10: - 15
gains Kansas

SEC: - 19
gains Clemson, Florida state, and Miami

ACC: - 16
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Notre Dame (partial football)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina state
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
UCF
USF

Big 12: - 12 (6 in texas)
Iowa state
Kansas state
Memphis
Oklahoma state
Boise state
BYU
TCU
SMU
Baylor
Houston
Rice
Texas Tech

I think these all look pretty stable, and if this were to happen, unless/until something rather dramatic (and unlikely) happens (like ohio state, NC, or USC), I think this would pretty much end P5 realignment for the near future.

What do you all think?

Big 10 will take Kansas, Virginia, North Carolina and Duke. SEC FSU, Clemson, Louisville, and someone. If this actually happens though it will be SEC and Big 10 only division. They PAC 12 would also be ripped apart.
06-21-2022 10:06 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
For those of you who are suggesting that teams will leave the ACC, exactly how do you suppose they will deal with the GoR that's in place for another ten years? That is a binding contract, and unless all the parties to that contract agree to change it all are still bound by it.

The costs to negotiate all those proposed exits is astronomical (well north of $1 billion). It's fun to imagine what would happen if those costs weren't real, but they are. So unless somebody figures out how to increase the benefits by more than the costs, nobody is going anywhere.
06-21-2022 10:23 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
No one else is leaving for the SEC or B1G, because no one else outside of South Bend will be able to generate $90-100m/ year, which is what the payout are expected to rise to in the next couple years, just to break even. It’s not like there’s free pro rata money available for the taking if you can just get an invite. FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke... those are nice feathers to have for a conference, but the billion dollars it will cost for each of those teams over a decade is simply not realistic for the networks. OU and UT we’re the last teams outside of ND that could move the needle in that big of a way.
06-21-2022 10:38 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 08:16 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 08:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  I think P5 realignment has already ended for the near future barring some breakaway from the NCAA. The key to your realignment would IMO be movement of Clemson, FSU and Miami to the SEC and the ACC contract with ESPN makes that extremely unlikely. Without that, no other dominoes need to fall.

Well, I think KS is going to the B10 after the TX/OK thing is resolved, regardless.

What does Kansas do for the Big Ten? The Big Ten already gets nine bids to the NCAA basketball tournament each season. At this point, Rutgers has more value than Kansas because of their location. The money that gets generated by the Big Ten from TV is about football, markets and Big Ten prestige. Kansas does not help make the Big Ten become a better football conference and does not answer the question, "How do we respond to the SEC adding Oklahoma and Texas?"
06-21-2022 10:58 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 10:38 AM)ColKurtz Wrote:  No one else is leaving for the SEC or B1G, because no one else outside of South Bend will be able to generate $90-100m/ year, which is what the payout are expected to rise to in the next couple years, just to break even. It’s not like there’s free pro rata money available for the taking if you can just get an invite. FSU, Clemson, UNC, Duke... those are nice feathers to have for a conference, but the billion dollars it will cost for each of those teams over a decade is simply not realistic for the networks. OU and UT we’re the last teams outside of ND that could move the needle in that big of a way.

The only other potential option I could see is where the B1G adds PAC schools. I believe the group of USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and ASU or Arizona would capture 90%+ of the PAC 12's potential media value and extend the B1G Network to all the major markets in the Pacific and Mountain time zones.
06-21-2022 11:08 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
The mutual interest between the SEC and FSU/Clemson/Miami is exaggerated and superficial.

The SEC, after UT and OU join, will likely struggle integrating because they have too many football brands. Programs like TAMU, Auburn, Florida and Tennessee could have a tough time matching their fans’ expectations. The ACC football brands need the money that the SEC generates, but (from the SEC perspective) they’re unlikely to be accretive. The ACC football brands could be comparable to an Arkansas-like expansion to the SEC…adding depth and relatively small markets, but with limited upside. The SEC can keep its option for these programs as a defensive move (if the B1G is encroaching); or if the SEC is threatened by the ACC (when its objective is to gut the ACC’s championship potential), but those are exceptional scenarios.

Bottom-line, FSU, Clemson and Miami will likely generate greater value to the media partner and their conference in the ACC. Their programs have more upside potential in the ACC, so long as they can win at their historical levels. Strategically, ESPN diversifies and benefits financially by keeping these football brands in the ACC while scheduling a couple of marquee games annually against SEC brands.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 11:59 AM by Wahoowa84.)
06-21-2022 11:44 AM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
So how do you get around the GOR for the ACC that is still good through 2036?
06-21-2022 12:15 PM
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RE: P5 realignment by 2025, overview
(06-21-2022 08:56 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 08:16 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Well, I think KS is going to the B10 after the TX/OK thing is resolved, regardless.

...

I've never understood opinions like this. The B1G could have invited Kansas at any time since the Nebraska move and they would have come. But the B1G did not. The OUT move is not holding anything up. If they wanted Kansas they could invite them today.
But they really have no reason to. They don't need a small state. They don't need a terrible football program (even Rice has a winning record against Kansas, and a two game winning streak going).

Low population state, not even the best football program in its own state, no history of past glory or strong following for the football team (i.e., they're not Nebraska).

Fewer people in the state than Connecticut, and UConn also has really good basketball and really bad football.

Want to compare KU football to Duke football? OK. Duke had six bowl games in the past 10 seasons. KU won zero or only one conference game in all 10 of the past 10 seasons.

There is no honest argument in which KU has a TV value of $60 million/year, and that's the likely minimum of what each Big Ten member will get from their next round of TV deals.

Money matters. This isn't "EA Sports NCAA Football" or some other video game where any user can create their own conferences and include every team they like and dump every team they don't like.
06-21-2022 01:07 PM
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