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If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #21
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-20-2022 04:00 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 03:49 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  It can certainly be cut pretty deeply.

I'm not saying they'll make less than what they currently get, I'm saying there's no way they'll do worse than the original amount the AAC got. The AAC got a $2m/yr deal from ESPN. You effectively can't do worse than that (you could get $0 and it would basically be the same because $2m/yr isn't really moving the needle for these athletic depts).

So even from a starting point of $2m/yr, the AAC quickly emerged as a competitive conference with good TV ratings. They could do the same again.


I doubt they’d make less than 2M but their coverage would likely get scaled back too. They’re running out of schools with anything close to a national brand.
06-21-2022 08:15 AM
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RustonBulldog Offline
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Post: #22
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
Nice to know the Sun Belt shitposting isn’t just limited to the C-USA board.
06-21-2022 11:07 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.
06-21-2022 11:19 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #24
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.
06-21-2022 11:31 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #25
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.
06-21-2022 11:43 AM
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dawgonit Offline
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Post: #26
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.
06-21-2022 11:45 AM
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TTT Offline
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Post: #27
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:07 AM)RustonBulldog Wrote:  Nice to know the Sun Belt shitposting isn’t just limited to the C-USA board.

Please, tell us who is shitposting in this thread. We'll wait...
06-21-2022 11:54 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #28
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.
06-21-2022 11:55 AM
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dawgonit Offline
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Post: #29
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-20-2022 02:29 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.

I was assuming that there would be a new conference of SBC-E and others in the vicinity when I mentioned so many additions. So in a scenario of a SBC-E break away, USF, FAU and FIU would probably be up for grabs along with ECU, Charlotte, Liberty, and Temple to make an east coast conference.

If the SBC sticks together, I don't see the SBC going past 16 (and that's extremely unlikely already) but if they did, they would like ECU in the east and one in the west to keep the geographic divisions. That's what I gather from fan interest.
06-21-2022 12:12 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #30
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.

I was assuming that there would be a new conference of SBC-E and others in the vicinity when I mentioned so many additions. So in a scenario of a SBC-E break away, USF, FAU and FIU would probably be up for grabs along with ECU, Charlotte, Liberty, and Temple to make an east coast conference.

If the SBC sticks together, I don't see the SBC going past 16 (and that's extremely unlikely already) but if they did, they would like ECU in the east and one in the west to keep the geographic divisions. That's what I gather from fan interest.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47xxux9pv14wrcdlpu8r...p;amp;ct=g]
06-21-2022 12:22 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #31
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:19 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  This. It's like having the conversation back in 2014, and assuming USF, Cincy, and UConn would b the most valuable teams in the next round. Only one of those three ended up being sought-after, and the timing on Cincy couldn't have worked out better. If realignment had been decided in 2017 instead of 2021, Cincy would probably be staying in the AAC and USF would likely be leaving.

So really it all depends on timing. The sooner something happens, the more likely Memphis/SMU (and I don't know why USF keeps getting mentioned) would be the most likely choices. 5 years into AAC 2.0, it's a complete crapshoot.

If, hypothetically, a couple more teams leave AND the media deal is scrapped AND the money is a fraction/closer to the G4 amounts, I could see ECU jumping to the Sun Belt. All those things, however, would need to happen.

Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.

I was assuming that there would be a new conference of SBC-E and others in the vicinity when I mentioned so many additions. So in a scenario of a SBC-E break away, USF, FAU and FIU would probably be up for grabs along with ECU, Charlotte, Liberty, and Temple to make an east coast conference.

If the SBC sticks together, I don't see the SBC going past 16 (and that's extremely unlikely already) but if they did, they would like ECU in the east and one in the west to keep the geographic divisions. That's what I gather from fan interest.

UAB would be ideal in that spot IMO.
06-21-2022 01:37 PM
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Yosef181 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 03:15 PM by Yosef181.)
06-21-2022 02:59 PM
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GreenBison Offline
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Post: #33
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 02:59 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).

One of the biggest things I learned from this last iteration of CUSA was that you can't just plug and play rivalries. Fans have to be interested in who you are playing. In 2013 when CUSA morphed into the AAC, Marshall lost all of our rivals. CUSA moved SoMiss and UAB over to the west and stuck us with all new schools that our fans didn't know or really even care about. Apathy sat in pretty quick. AAC is just repeating what CUSA did. I hope it works out for them, but I don't think it will. ECU will be stuck playing a bunch of schools their fans don't care about and that can be a killer.

We went from having yearly games with ECU, SoMiss, UCF, Memphis and UAB to playing FIU, Charlotte, MTSU, WKY and FAU every year. Our fans didn't know these schools and never seemed interested in getting to know them.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 03:28 PM by GreenBison.)
06-21-2022 03:25 PM
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Post: #34
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 02:59 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).

I think Memphis and South Florida end up in the XII. I’d like to see the Sun Belt add East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and UAB. The MWC would add Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and Wichita St. Navy and Temple football go independent. The AAC swallows CUSA which adds Eastern Kentucky to get to 12.

Same: ACC, B1G, MAC, PAC, SEC

IND: Army, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple

XIV
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

MWC
Central: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Wyoming
West: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St
* Football-only
^ Non-football: Wichita St

SBC
East: Appalachian St, East Carolina, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion
South: Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Georgia St, South Alabama, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas St, North Texas, Southern Miss, Texas St, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe

AAC
East: Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, Florida International, Liberty, Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky
West: Jacksonville St, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico St, Sam Houston St, UTEP, UTSA
06-21-2022 04:29 PM
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freshtop Offline
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Post: #35
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 01:37 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  Yes, timing is everything. Which is crazy, IMO, because realignment decisions should be based on long term goals. You'd think university administrators would have better judgment than fans of their sports teams. But it doesn't seem that way.

My memory is that ECU was desperate to get into an AQ conference, and even agreed to a football only deal with the Big East before that conference imploded. I never thought that league was in their best long term interest, but the school had tunnel vision.

Now, when I contemplate your speculation about the remote possibility of the Pirates moving to the Sun Belt, I look at what that northern division would look like with ECU in it and I can't help but think this is really where they belong if money weren't the only consideration.

The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.

I was assuming that there would be a new conference of SBC-E and others in the vicinity when I mentioned so many additions. So in a scenario of a SBC-E break away, USF, FAU and FIU would probably be up for grabs along with ECU, Charlotte, Liberty, and Temple to make an east coast conference.

If the SBC sticks together, I don't see the SBC going past 16 (and that's extremely unlikely already) but if they did, they would like ECU in the east and one in the west to keep the geographic divisions. That's what I gather from fan interest.

UAB would be ideal in that spot IMO.

I won't say never because I suppose anything is possible, but I have strong doubts that UAB would join South Alabama and Troy in the SBC.
06-21-2022 06:22 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 06:22 PM)freshtop Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 01:37 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 12:12 PM)dawgonit Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:45 AM)dawgonit Wrote:  The Sun Belt East fans are very interested in getting ECU to join its ranks. If more AAC schools move to other conferences, it may only be money keeping ECU and the SBC-E separate. Talking about the SBC-E, Charlotte and Liberty also fit in that division very nicely, though Liberty is controversial. Temple isn't far off from JMU and ODU. It would be a great geographic, competitive conference all by itself. Basically the geographic footprint of the original ACC.

The only other knock (other than loot) on the SBC is that there are no teams in Florida or Texas (don't make me say it Texas St), which are the two biggest recruiting states in the country.

I was assuming that there would be a new conference of SBC-E and others in the vicinity when I mentioned so many additions. So in a scenario of a SBC-E break away, USF, FAU and FIU would probably be up for grabs along with ECU, Charlotte, Liberty, and Temple to make an east coast conference.

If the SBC sticks together, I don't see the SBC going past 16 (and that's extremely unlikely already) but if they did, they would like ECU in the east and one in the west to keep the geographic divisions. That's what I gather from fan interest.

UAB would be ideal in that spot IMO.

I won't say never because I suppose anything is possible, but I have strong doubts that UAB would join South Alabama and Troy in the SBC.

They might IF the SBC continues its upswing and consistently has one or more teams ranked throughout the season. Of course, it also depends on if the AAC can hold serve as the top G5 (which the MWC is closing in on).

But of course, NOTHING is happening unless two of Memphis/SMU/USF get poached to the B12.
06-21-2022 06:37 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #37
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 02:59 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).

It's speculation, but I get why you're inclined to guess that outcome. I was saying that it might still be a toss up had we turned in results more like Houston's. The fact that UCF, who is also a smaller market team made it in tell me that any of us could have played our way to the next level.

I would tend to agree with your guess if there were snubbed AAC teams that far and away outperformed the three that are leaving. If your hypothesis is 100% correct, then a smaller market team like UCF wouldn't have gotten the nod despite success. A team like Temple, which has won the AAC and been consistently competitive until very recently, would have gotten the spot instead because of their market.

The fact is the SBC strived to be the best G5, and ended up 2nd-3rd. The AAC teams strived to make it to P5 conferences, and the three with the best performance did. I don't think UCF would have turned down the AAC offer just because they'd lose their games against Marshall and UAB.
06-21-2022 08:59 PM
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Yosef181 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 08:59 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:59 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).

It's speculation, but I get why you're inclined to guess that outcome. I was saying that it might still be a toss up had we turned in results more like Houston's. The fact that UCF, who is also a smaller market team made it in tell me that any of us could have played our way to the next level.

I would tend to agree with your guess if there were snubbed AAC teams that far and away outperformed the three that are leaving. If your hypothesis is 100% correct, then a smaller market team like UCF wouldn't have gotten the nod despite success. A team like Temple, which has won the AAC and been consistently competitive until very recently, would have gotten the spot instead because of their market.

The fact is the SBC strived to be the best G5, and ended up 2nd-3rd. The AAC teams strived to make it to P5 conferences, and the three with the best performance did. I don't think UCF would have turned down the AAC offer just because they'd lose their games against Marshall and UAB.

I appreciate your response. I do want to push back on the point about UCF if I can: Orlando isn't a small market. It's large enough to host an NBA team, and is one of the top vacation destinations in the country. If you're a fan of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, etc., would you rather go see an away game beside Disney World/Universal, or in rural NC?

I think if/when USF ends up going to the Big 12, a team who is 7-26 over the past 3 seasons, there will be more weight behind my speculation.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2022 10:11 PM by Yosef181.)
06-21-2022 10:10 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #39
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
(06-21-2022 04:29 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 02:59 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(06-21-2022 11:43 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  It was still the best move either way. 3 of the 4 teams called up came from the AAC, and the other was independent. The move put us in the best position possible, we just didn't capitalize on it. Based on Memphis(who did everything right) being snubbed, I'm not convinced that our market wouldn't have held us back anyway even if we had won a few conference titles. We surely could have done more either way.

The alternative would have been to stay in CUSA. We would probably have had better records, but we'd also probably just now be moving up to the AAC. It's pretty clear how those teams are being viewed publicly vs. the existing teams, just like how we were viewed when we all joined. So, in hindsight, I like that we've been able to keep up with autonomy benchmarks and have been able to do facility improvements. So not much different than joining the AAC now other than the head start on cash.

And hell, with Scottie Mo we might have been bad in CUSA, and could be Western Tucky'd right now.

I don't think they were picked because they were in the AAC, but because they are the best options for what the Big 12 and media partners want. I know ECU fans feel like they missed a shot to skyrocket into the P5, but I don't think that was ever going to happen. ECU could've just won 60 straight games and still would've been passed over in favor of Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU.

ECU is more of a Marshall/Southern Miss: a small market program that the P5 won't add. In their pursuit of something which isn't attainable, ECU lost real rivalries with Marshall and Southern Miss. ECU is still chasing the P5 dream. How long will it be before they realize it isn't possible? That's the real question.

The Belt teams know they aren't pursuing the P5. That's why the SBC marketing lately has been "Let's aim to be the best G5", instead of the AAC's "We're P6!" claims. If ECU ever decides to stop chasing, I'm sure the SBC would welcome the Pirates. Rivalries with Marshall, App, ODU, and Southern Miss probably mean more to their future fanbase than whoever they count as conference rivals now (UNCC? Temple? Memphis?).

I think Memphis and South Florida end up in the XII. I’d like to see the Sun Belt add East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and UAB. The MWC would add Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and Wichita St. Navy and Temple football go independent. The AAC swallows CUSA which adds Eastern Kentucky to get to 12.

Same: ACC, B1G, MAC, PAC, SEC

IND: Army, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Navy, Notre Dame, Temple

XIV
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

MWC
Central: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Wyoming
West: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St
* Football-only
^ Non-football: Wichita St

SBC
East: Appalachian St, East Carolina, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion
South: Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Georgia St, South Alabama, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas St, North Texas, Southern Miss, Texas St, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe

AAC
East: Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, Florida International, Liberty, Middle Tennessee St, Western Kentucky
West: Jacksonville St, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico St, Sam Houston St, UTEP, UTSA

I wouldn't mind this outcome, but this is assuming that there's no more realignment at the P level for at least the next 30 years. Well, I'm not holding my breath on that.

The other thing is, on the SBC/AAC angle, for the SBC to jump over the AAC would have to mean the 4-letter monopsony has deemed the SBC to be their G conference for the Southeast. 18 programs is a lot to show on TV, when combined with SEC, ACC and Big XII/XIV. Of course, by that time the AAC would have a different commissioner and one which probably wouldn't have the personality of Aresco.

In that case, yes, they may not care if the likes of SMU, Rice and Tulsa leave for the MWC and Fox.
06-22-2022 01:38 AM
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panite Offline
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Post: #40
RE: If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...
Not much of a change. The AAC will only lose 1 school if the B-12 expands by 2 when Texas and Oklahoma leave. The other P5 conferences don't want any AAC schools. They will however try to steal from each other. If they B-12 gets poached big time with OK St, Kansas, Iowa St, and / or a couple of the Texas teams then the gloves are off for the B-12 to rebound and back fill from the AAC, and stuff rolls downhill from there. At that time the AAC TV contract goes downhill with Sunbelt replacements or potential FB only replacements from UMASS and UCONN. CUSA and the MAC do not have much to pick from and the MWC schools will continue to stick together.
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06-22-2022 08:43 AM
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