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Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
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Schadenfreude Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

Quote:Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

As good as Kansas is, it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State. I find it hard to imagine the UCs wanting to rub shoulders with a Cal State. Also, while Brigham Young is certainly a good school, it's not Stanford (or Vandy or Northwestern).

For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 06:21 PM by Schadenfreude.)
06-16-2022 06:20 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
Notre Dame to the SEC? Ohio State to the SEC. Michigan to the SEC?

Pretty soon some of y'all will be predicting the Rams, Cowboys and Patriots are joining, too.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 06:30 PM by PeteTheChop.)
06-16-2022 06:30 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Notre Dame to the SEC? Ohio State to the SEC. Michigan to the SEC?

Pretty soon some of y'all will be predicting the Rams, Cowboys and Patriots are joining, too.

The Cowboys couldn't compete, so no.
06-16-2022 06:49 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... so how do y'all think those lists might look for the "P-5" conferences?

There's obviously levels of desirability and fit for each "candidate" as we all know, so the schools are sorted into tiers (and sub-tiers) to indicate a pecking order from the conference's standpoint if a decision to expand were to proceed and GoR's have either expired, dissolved or proven not to be an insurmountable obstacle.

Tier 1 = A take
Tier 2 = A potential take but with complications
Tier 3 = Longshots primarily for geographical or institutional fit reasons

B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

S-E-C
Tier 1: North Carolina
Tier 1A: Duke, Virginia
Tier 1B: Florida State, Clemson
Tier 2: NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Tier 3: Miami

Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

ACC
Tier 2: West Virginia, Cincinnati
Tier 2A: UCF, USF, UConn, Memphis
Tier 2B: Temple, Tulane

Big XII
Tier 2: Memphis, USF, SMU
Tier 2A: San Diego State
Tier 2B: Boise State, Colorado State, Tulane
Tier 3: UTSA

Comments? Corrections? Additions?

1. I'd agree that the SEC's priorities would include Clemson and FSU or Miami (FL).

2. Not sure that Duke, UVA, and UNC would be near the top of any of these lists.

3. Memphis (definitely tier 1), USF, SMU, and Boise St. all seem to be tier 1 or tier 1A for Big 12.

4. Hawaii might be high on the list of PAC-12 expansion schools, and Rice might be a potential expansion candidate.

.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 07:22 PM by Milwaukee.)
06-16-2022 07:12 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 05:25 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 04:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Any smart commissioner should have contingency plans in place.

At this point, the driving force is determined by how big the SEC and Big 10 want to go. Is the future 16, 18, 20, or 24?

Is it a set number?

Or is it how many teams check the boxes for value and fit?

Most likely some combination of both

I tossed those numbers out because they are nice even numbers that make pods/divisions feasible and scheduling easier. 21 divides nice by 3 so that could work too.
06-16-2022 07:33 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

Quote:Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

As good as Kansas is, it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State. I find it hard to imagine the UCs wanting to rub shoulders with a Cal State. Also, while Brigham Young is certainly a good school, it's not Stanford (or Vandy or Northwestern).

For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

No Mizzou State?
06-16-2022 07:34 PM
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Schadenfreude Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 07:34 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  
Schadenfreude Wrote:For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

No Mizzou State?

Good point. I should have named them first in Tier 3 instead of leaving them in the other Missouri Valley schools. Some will argue they are Tier 2. Possibly, but they aren't close to the MAC's core footprint or obviously ahead of the other Missouri Valley schools, either on the field or in the U.S. News rankings.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2022 07:41 PM by Schadenfreude.)
06-16-2022 07:40 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
B1G: Tier 1 Notre Dame
SEC: Tier 1 Notre Dame
ACC: Tier 1 Notre Dame
B12: Tier 1 Notre Dame
PAC: Tier 1 Nobody
06-16-2022 07:42 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 07:40 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 07:34 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  
Schadenfreude Wrote:For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

No Mizzou State?

Good point. I should have named them first in Tier 3 instead of leaving them in the other Missouri Valley schools. Some will argue they are Tier 2. Possibly, but they aren't close to the MAC's core footprint or obviously ahead of the other Missouri Valley schools, either on the field or in the U.S. News rankings.

Was very surprised that the MAC invited WKU and MTSU to join, but am also surprised that WKU didn't join on its own, since it seemed ready, willing, and able to make the move.

UMass and UConn seem very unlikely as FB-only members - I'd put them in MAC Tier 3.
06-16-2022 08:09 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Tier 1 = A take
Tier 2 = A potential take but with complications
Tier 3 = Longshots primarily for geographical or institutional fit reasons

S-E-C
Tier 1: North Carolina
Tier 1A: Duke, Virginia
Tier 1B: Florida State, Clemson
Tier 2: NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Tier 3: Miami

I don't know that Miami would fall into the Tier 3 category here.

To me, an expansion of Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and maybe Virginia Tech would be a perfect set of schools to add to double down on what the SEC does well.

Granted, the city of Miami is not a cultural fit for the SEC, but I don't know that that matters too much at this point.

I would also throw Kansas in the mix.
06-16-2022 08:13 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
Let's play a different game. What if we were working more like an expansion draft. Each conference could protect all but four schools. For each conference which four would they expose?

Then each conference gets to pick one of the exposed teams or one of the remaining independents. If two or more conferences choose the same school, then school gets to decide.

If a conference loses a school they get to protect another school.

After the first round they all get to protect an additional school.

Alternatively, which FBS schools have entered the Transfer Portal?
06-16-2022 08:29 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 08:29 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  Let's play a different game. What if we were working more like an expansion draft. Each conference could protect all but four schools. For each conference which four would they expose?

Then each conference gets to pick one of the exposed teams or one of the remaining independents. If two or more conferences choose the same school, then school gets to decide.

If a conference loses a school they get to protect another school.

After the first round they all get to protect an additional school.

Alternatively, which FBS schools have entered the Transfer Portal?

This is a great idea but I think it belongs in its own thread.
06-16-2022 10:01 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

Quote:Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

As good as Kansas is, it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State. I find it hard to imagine the UCs wanting to rub shoulders with a Cal State. Also, while Brigham Young is certainly a good school, it's not Stanford (or Vandy or Northwestern).

For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

Agreed on the UCs and Cal States. Just to be fair to the Cal States though, the UCs also aren't too keen on any out of state program that is less than or equal to the Cal States' either.

Also, as much as I admire the NM State Aggies, the truth of the matter is they can't get into the Mountain West, and even the Sunbelt pretty much gave them the bum's rush. I don't agree with the SunBelt's actions, but it is what it is.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2022 04:12 AM by DawgNBama.)
06-17-2022 04:08 AM
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Post: #34
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:49 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The Cowboys couldn't compete, so no.

Sidebar:

A great one-liner I heard recently was, "I always thought the Cowboys' star was a logo; instead it's actually a rating: one star."
06-17-2022 08:49 AM
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Schadenfreude Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  ... it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State.

I meant New Mexico, obviously. Oops.
06-17-2022 10:08 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

Quote:Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

As good as Kansas is, it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State. I find it hard to imagine the UCs wanting to rub shoulders with a Cal State. Also, while Brigham Young is certainly a good school, it's not Stanford (or Vandy or Northwestern).

For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

Stony Brook is neither a natural rival for UB nor are they going to draw a huge market. It is a 9 hour drive between campuses with the quickest way there through two other states. With the exception of Northern Illinois, literally the entire current MAC is closer. A rivalry between UB and Syracuse is more likely. Plus folks forget exactly how far out on LI Stony Brook is. For folks living in NYC, it might as well be on Mars.
06-17-2022 11:03 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 10:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 08:29 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  Let's play a different game. What if we were working more like an expansion draft. Each conference could protect all but four schools. For each conference which four would they expose?

Then each conference gets to pick one of the exposed teams or one of the remaining independents. If two or more conferences choose the same school, then school gets to decide.

If a conference loses a school they get to protect another school.

After the first round they all get to protect an additional school.

Alternatively, which FBS schools have entered the Transfer Portal?

This is a great idea but I think it belongs in its own thread.

Yes please : )
06-17-2022 11:51 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 04:35 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 03:34 PM)TallTexan Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 03:20 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 12:54 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Comments? Corrections? Additions?

SEC:
1. Clemson/FSU
2. Whoever they want

Nah, the SEC thinks bigger than that.

Their “Tier 1” team is Ohio State.

I was thinking the SEC probably has the biggest list.

Tier 1: Ohio State/USC
Tier 2: The blue bloods that come with Ohio State and USC
Tier 3: Whoever they want out of the ACC to round it out.

Ohio State is a much, much easier add for the SEC.
Look at a map. Ohio State is:
-- Already adjacent to an SEC state
-- Less than 200 miles from the University of Kentucky
-- Less than 400 miles from both the University of Tennessee and Vanderbilt
-- Closer to the University of Alabama (by a few miles) than Alabama is to Texas A&M, and quite a bit closer to Alabama than Alabama is to SEC newbies Oklahoma and Texas

Oh this is about the SEC trying to build a premier league, which I definitely think is the end goal.

Will be using Ohio State to convince Michigan, Penn State, and 3 others. Using USC to bring Washington, Oregon, UCLA, and two bridge schools.

That's what the SEC's long term plan is. 24-30 teams that have their own playoff.
06-17-2022 10:19 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

Quote:Pac-12
Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Kansas, Texas Tech
Tier 3: Oklahoma State, Baylor, BYU, TCU, Houston, San Diego State

As good as Kansas is, it seems to me the Mountain West schools would get a closer look just based on geography. I don't think Brigham Young or San Diego State would be at the top of that list. There is an argument to be made against all those schools, but there is probably a stronger case for Boise State, and perhaps one of the Nevadas or New Mexico State. I find it hard to imagine the UCs wanting to rub shoulders with a Cal State. Also, while Brigham Young is certainly a good school, it's not Stanford (or Vandy or Northwestern).

For what it's worth, for the MAC, I think it would be:

Tier 1: Western Kentucky
Tier 2: Stony Brook, North Dakota State, UMass (which appears only available football only), UConn (which might be available football only)
Tier 3: Illinois State, Northern Iowa, or another willing Missouri Valley football school

Stony Brook is years away from being truly viable, given that they are only now settling into the Colonial Athletic, but they would be a natural rival for Buffalo in a huge market. North Dakota State is rather far, but the football is obviously great there. UMass is more or less a fall back, football-only option right now.

Regarding the Pac12

You're right that the UC schools don't want to associate with the Cal State schools and yet they'd rather do that than add Boise St.

BYU is a no the same reason Baylor and TCU are, they're religious based schools (BYU more than the others). Otherwise BYU would have already been in the Pac.

IMO Houston would be at Tier 2.

I would be surprised if they have any interest in New Mexico (which is who I assume you meant). More likely Colorado St., Hawaii and SDSU would be considered before New Mexico.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2022 11:51 PM by AztecNation.)
06-17-2022 11:48 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Every conference commissioner likely has a "who's next" list ...
(06-16-2022 06:20 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 10:42 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  B1G
Tier 1: Notre Dame
Tier 1A: North Carolina
Tier 1B: Duke, Virginia
Tier 2: Missouri, Kansas
Tier 3: Georgia Tech, Miami
Tier 3A: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado

Virginia probably makes more sense than North Carolina. A better school, contiguous, and a more natural rival for Maryland.

And if you go by that logic, Pittsburgh makes more sense as a natural rival than Virginia and North Carolina. But the Big Ten has the Washington DC covered with Maryland already so the North Carolina markets seem more valuable than the non DC Virginia markets (Richmond, Virginia Beach). My ideal Big Ten "Southeast" strategy would be both Virginia and North Carolina and I would take Duke if required.
06-18-2022 05:14 AM
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