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freshtop Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 05:49 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  My biggest problem with the study is the assumptions this young man makes. He used the flawed NYT study from 2011. For example the NYT used Google searches in 2011 as part of its survey.

In 2021, a decade after the NYT study, 37% of Kentucky still did not have internet and in Mississippi nearly 40% didn’t have internet. The South is still the least connected region of the country. To make the number of Google searches determine anything assumes everyone has the same access to the platform. That’s more of the Northern bias.

The 10 least connected States in order:

Mississippi
Arkansas
Alabama
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Louisiana
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alaska



I know everyone has a smart phone. Not in 2011 they didn’t. There are parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee and Mississippi were a cell phone is at times useless. It’s just a fancy paperweight.

https://www.reviews.org/internet-service...onnection/

Since both studies used this flawed study I would argue that any program in the South is woefully underrepresented in this study. Certainly in the States with limited internet service.

The 2011 NYT study was a joke and using it as a basis invalidates the whole thing at the word go. I am not trying to throw shade at them, but anyone who has attempted to watch a game @ FIU knows that they should be a the very bottom of any fanbase list (despite their large enrollment). When you see programs like ULM ahead of ODU, Coastal, and Georgia Southern. FIU ahead of NMST, Liberty, WKU, and MTSU...

These are just common sense snafus. The slide even mentions not having enough data and yet it posts (incorrect) conclusions anyway.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2022 07:48 AM by freshtop.)
06-17-2022 07:19 AM
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
This is really good! Thanks for sharing!
06-17-2022 07:35 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-16-2022 09:50 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 08:45 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  While I agree that OSU is near the top, the fanbase didn't really exist until 2002.

were you born in 2003 or something?

Looking at the numbers I don't know if OSU's support has grown larger or that PSU's and Michigan's support has subsided.

I'm pretty sure the relative gap has grown.
06-17-2022 08:03 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 05:49 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  My biggest problem with the study is the assumptions this young man makes. He used the flawed NYT study from 2011. For example the NYT used Google searches in 2011 as part of its survey.

In 2021, a decade after the NYT study, 37% of Kentucky still did not have internet and in Mississippi nearly 40% didn’t have internet. The South is still the least connected region of the country. To make the number of Google searches determine anything assumes everyone has the same access to the platform. That’s more of the Northern bias.

The 10 least connected States in order:

Mississippi
Arkansas
Alabama
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Louisiana
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alaska



I know everyone has a smart phone. Not in 2011 they didn’t. There are parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee and Mississippi were a cell phone is at times useless. It’s just a fancy paperweight.

https://www.reviews.org/internet-service...onnection/

Since both studies used this flawed study I would argue that any program in the South is woefully underrepresented in this study. Certainly in the States with limited internet service.

Also having 2011 as a data point isn't good because a lot has changed since then.

2014, 2019 and 2021 would be better.
06-17-2022 08:07 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
I think we all have been over the sourcing problems with the study, and the flaws in the studies that are reference (the old NYT fanbase map etc.) It's one of those statistical artifacts where the details are subject to a lot of randomness, but the general shape of the river is about right.

But that said, I feel like defending some of the challenged conclusions

(06-16-2022 11:21 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  They're drinking their own cool-aid if they think only 8% of fans cheer for G5s and 92% cheer for A5s. If anything the metric measures how desirable attending games is for fans of each school listed.

That's not far off from what the TV contracts say or what the attendance numbers say. Or the t-shirt sales say. Or pretty much anything you could come up with to measure.

(06-17-2022 07:19 AM)freshtop Wrote:  The 2011 NYT study was a joke and using it as a basis invalidates the whole thing at the word go. I am not trying to throw shade at them, but anyone who has attempted to watch a game @ FIU knows that they should be a the very bottom of any fanbase list (despite their large enrollment). When you see programs like ULM ahead of ODU, Coastal, and Georgia Southern. FIU ahead of NMST, Liberty, WKU, and MTSU...

I really don't think the study was carefully designed to measure the size of G5 fanbases vs other G5 fanbases. It's like a primary election poll where everyone acts like it's a big deal when Senator Schlobotnik is at 3.7% and Governor Grubbleheim is at 2.1%, when the fine print on the poll says that the margin of error is 3.5% and both Schlobotnik and Grubblheim are going nowhere.

I thought I had tagged more?
06-17-2022 08:39 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 08:03 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 09:50 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  
(06-16-2022 08:45 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  While I agree that OSU is near the top, the fanbase didn't really exist until 2002.

were you born in 2003 or something?

Looking at the numbers I don't know if OSU's support has grown larger or that PSU's and Michigan's support has subsided.

I'm pretty sure the relative gap has grown.

I'd say OSU has grown since 2002 but it was already pretty huge. What makes it more noticeable to people is the diaspora of Ohioans across the country (particularly down south and out west). Also, when the team basically when 12+ games every year you are going to grab some band wagon jumpers no matter who you are. I'd also say Michigan's fan base has shrunk slightly due to lack of sustained success over the past 10-15 years. PSU's fan base seems fairly consistent with what it was 10-15 years ago.
06-17-2022 08:41 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-16-2022 08:32 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  This analysis might measure breadth but not depth. I.E. Breadth is a fan likes a team casually but only gets invested when they get in the Top 25 or make a run in the basketball tournament. Depth is a fan who bleeds the colors: season tickets yet lives 4 hours away, makes bowl games, attends basketball tournaments, donates money....etc...

Very solid point. And for college sports, it's more an art than a science to decide how you should weight breadth vs depth. How do you rate a Miami, whose stadium is half empty, but if they can put together a couple of back-to-back top 10 seasons they're a national sensation again. (Don't think my Miami example applies that's fine, but there's probably a school you WOULD agree that this applies to).

Quote:As a lifelong Cuse fan I can tell you we have breadth not depth. When we win...the bandwagon grows overnight with NYC and other east coast folks along with Upstate NY diaspora. When we are mediocre (basically most of the last 20 years in FB and 5 in BB) it is only the local T-shirt fans that attend games. I don't believe we are the 14th largest but more like around 35-40.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MiUOwx8...LLCoJ/view

Top 15 or 20 does sound suspiciously high for Syracuse, but people forget how many people are in their vague area. New York State has from 5-7M people outside the New York metro area (depending on how far you stretch northwards), and Syracuse is their local P5 team.

(06-16-2022 11:30 AM)MU88 Wrote:  Any list that puts Nebraska behind Wisconsin has no credibility.

Ehh. State of Wisconsin has 6M people, Nebraska has 2M. So maybe?

(06-16-2022 12:20 PM)YNot Wrote:  University of Oregon has 1.5 million more fans than the entire state of Oregon?...and more fans than Clemson and Florida State...combined?

Phil Knight and the Nike effect, I suppose. Those wild funky uniforms caused ripples across the internet, probably spiked sales of Ducks gear to people who wouldn't know a Eugene from a Corvallis.

Quote:Some obvious outliers. Why ignore data points like recent attendance reports and TV viewership numbers?

Viewership numbers are pretty easy to argue with--opponent, timeslot, channel / network all move the needle a lot. And schools can just fabricate their attendance reports.

(06-16-2022 12:29 PM)utpotts Wrote:  Pretty sure Michigan has a bigger fan base than both Texas and Penn State.

That's the sort of thing where we don't have clear enough data to prove anything. Measuring those relative scales would need a better methodology that we or those guys have. But I wouldn't knock a methodology based on "eye test" if your eye test is how you rank Texas, Michigan and Penn State against each other.

(06-16-2022 05:28 PM)ken d Wrote:  I agree. There are way too many examples that make no sense. Syracuse #14? Seriously? UNC ahead of South Carolina and Clemson? I don't think so. Even if you count the thousands of Tar Heel fans who come to games disguised as empty seats they don't come close to their southern cousins.

I think they put weight on sheer state size, once you have some visibility in your home state. And NC has 10M, SC has 5M.
06-17-2022 08:53 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.
06-17-2022 09:30 AM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
One of the flaws with outside data is assumptions. Many college football teams do not have a statewide base. One can claim Maryland has a fan base of 6 million, but if they average 38,000 a game, what's the real number?
06-17-2022 10:42 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 10:42 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  One of the flaws with outside data is assumptions. Many college football teams do not have a statewide base. One can claim Maryland has a fan base of 6 million, but if they average 38,000 a game, what's the real number?

Well, you'd want to measure different things, and combine them, ideally in a transparent way.

One thing you do want to factor into the mix is "turf." The population of the area where "Maryland Terrapins" is the favorite CFB team is a factor. The population of the area where "Maryland Terrapins CFB" is on the radar for say 5% of the population is a factor.

Maryland's 40,000 in the stands is different than Baylor's 40,000 in the stands. How different? I don't know, I'd want to mess around with a lot of numbers to decide what I really really think about that. You'd want to look at a lot of data sets, none of which give you an especially clear picture. Google searches, merchandise sales, TV ratings.
06-17-2022 10:49 AM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

Go Bucks!
06-17-2022 11:46 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

2X Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin? No. Iowa, Michigan State? Probably not. 2X Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota? Absolutely.

I've seen OSU fans fill up the visiting stadium at Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota etc.
06-17-2022 12:21 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 12:21 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

2X Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin? No. Iowa, Michigan State? Probably not. 2X Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota? Absolutely.

I've seen OSU fans fill up the visiting stadium at Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota etc.

Well that's kind of my point. Click the link and scroll down to the Big Ten comparison, they've got Ohio State at 11 million and Penn state-michigan is 6 million a piece.

That's a point where I'd like to see the consult and show their work.
06-17-2022 12:29 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 08:39 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  I think we all have been over the sourcing problems with the study, and the flaws in the studies that are reference (the old NYT fanbase map etc.) It's one of those statistical artifacts where the details are subject to a lot of randomness, but the general shape of the river is about right.

But that said, I feel like defending some of the challenged conclusions

(06-16-2022 11:21 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  They're drinking their own cool-aid if they think only 8% of fans cheer for G5s and 92% cheer for A5s. If anything the metric measures how desirable attending games is for fans of each school listed.

That's not far off from what the TV contracts say or what the attendance numbers say. Or the t-shirt sales say. Or pretty much anything you could come up with to measure.

Again. If anyone actually thinks only 8% of CFB fans are rooting for G5 and vice versa they are off their rocker. Now, we all know that fans of CFB down to the FCS level will watch big-time CFB games when it's on TV. It's why the top level of CFB is doing so well. But that will be wiped out if these schools separate themselves from the rest forcefully. JMO. Fans aren't the same thing as people who tune in to catch good games, thats a more fickle thing than a real fan.
06-17-2022 01:22 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 11:46 AM)cubucks Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

Go Bucks!

I'd say Baylor fans are more hardcore. MD fans are divided...many are pro FB fans first.
06-17-2022 01:33 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 12:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 12:21 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

2X Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin? No. Iowa, Michigan State? Probably not. 2X Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota? Absolutely.

I've seen OSU fans fill up the visiting stadium at Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota etc.

Well that's kind of my point. Click the link and scroll down to the Big Ten comparison, they've got Ohio State at 11 million and Penn state-michigan is 6 million a piece.

That's a point where I'd like to see the consult and show their work.

Just anecdotally: I've seen way more tOSU fans in Tampa Bay and JAX

Ohio State has no other real competition in state too. Michigan has Michigan State
06-17-2022 01:35 PM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 01:35 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 12:29 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 12:21 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 09:30 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Another quibble: I'm curious to see the numbers that have Ohio State at 2x the fanbase of anybody else in the Big Ten.

2X Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin? No. Iowa, Michigan State? Probably not. 2X Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and Minnesota? Absolutely.

I've seen OSU fans fill up the visiting stadium at Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota etc.

Well that's kind of my point. Click the link and scroll down to the Big Ten comparison, they've got Ohio State at 11 million and Penn state-michigan is 6 million a piece.

That's a point where I'd like to see the consult and show their work.

Just anecdotally: I've seen way more tOSU fans in Tampa Bay and JAX

Ohio State has no other real competition in state too. Michigan has Michigan State

Florida is absolutely loaded with tOSU folks.
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2022 03:32 PM by cubucks.)
06-17-2022 01:41 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-17-2022 01:22 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  
(06-17-2022 08:39 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  I think we all have been over the sourcing problems with the study, and the flaws in the studies that are reference (the old NYT fanbase map etc.) It's one of those statistical artifacts where the details are subject to a lot of randomness, but the general shape of the river is about right.

But that said, I feel like defending some of the challenged conclusions

(06-16-2022 11:21 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  They're drinking their own cool-aid if they think only 8% of fans cheer for G5s and 92% cheer for A5s. If anything the metric measures how desirable attending games is for fans of each school listed.

That's not far off from what the TV contracts say or what the attendance numbers say. Or the t-shirt sales say. Or pretty much anything you could come up with to measure.

Again. If anyone actually thinks only 8% of CFB fans are rooting for G5 and vice versa they are off their rocker. Now, we all know that fans of CFB down to the FCS level will watch big-time CFB games when it's on TV. It's why the top level of CFB is doing so well. But that will be wiped out if these schools separate themselves from the rest forcefully. JMO. Fans aren't the same thing as people who tune in to catch good games, thats a more fickle thing than a real fan.

In San Diego, sure. In the East, where there are so many P5 teams, most everyone I know roots for a P5 team. Even alumni of G5 schools!
06-18-2022 07:40 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
The bad news is that trying to measure fan base sizes is a futile exercise. There is no methodology without serious flaws. The good news is that there is also no good reason for trying to measure them. Even if there were some way you could know for certain how many fans you have, that and a few bucks will buy you a cup of coffee.

But claiming to have figured it out will get you clicks from fans who want to believe theirs is bigger than yours, and that can be monetized with advertisers who couldn't care less whose is bigger.
06-18-2022 12:31 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Fan Base Sizes Ranked
(06-18-2022 12:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  The bad news is that trying to measure fan base sizes is a futile exercise. There is no methodology without serious flaws. The good news is that there is also no good reason for trying to measure them. Even if there were some way you could know for certain how many fans you have, that and a few bucks will buy you a cup of coffee.

But claiming to have figured it out will get you clicks from fans who want to believe theirs is bigger than yours, and that can be monetized with advertisers who couldn't care less whose is bigger.

too accurate. but then what would we argue over
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2022 12:35 PM by johnbragg.)
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